Article: Trade Deadline Topics: Prospects, Scouting, Rumors

[Seth Stohs]

We often hear the term Untouchable, and as we have all reiterated in recent weeks, it really is a misnomer. As has been pointed out, it really means Untouchable-Unless-Overwhelmed. Anyone can be traded in the right deal.

 

In today’s Trade Deadline topics, we discuss why there are a variety of opinions on any given trade, and also what has been happening as it relates to scouting. Then there were several of rumors spreading around the likes of Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Ken Giles, Sergio Romo, Robbie Ray and others.The first thing we all need to admit, the term Prospect means something different to everyone. People aren’t going to agree on every prospect or rank them exactly the same. My Top prospect ranking looks a little different than Cody’s rankings or Tom’s rankings and with others, we have our Twins Daily Top 40 rankings. It looks different than Baseball America which looks a little different than Baseball Prospectus which looks a little different than FanGraphs which looks a little different than MLB Pipeline Which looks different than ESPNs rankings. And that’s OK.

 

But as it relates to the Trade Deadline, the only prospect rankings and organizational depth charts that matter are the Minnesota Twins and any team that is scouting their players.

 

That is the reason that each individual can have a slightly different, or fully different, opinion on a trade and the players dealt away.

 

To that degree, we love our prospects, right? Every fan base loves its own prospects. No matter the deal, any trade that sends a player away hurts to some degree because, even if we don’t know that player personally, he’s part of the “We” that includes players, front office and fans too.

 

At the same time, we all understand that in order to get something, something has to be given up, and in baseball, especially at the trade deadline, that comes in the form of prospects.

 

I’ve been giving it some thought… let me know in the Comments if this makes sense.

 

By definition, signing a free agent means that a team was willing to pay a little bit more than the other 29 teams were willing to pay. So it is overpaying, but hopefully just by a little bit. However, each team should also have a maximum amount (in years and dollars) for each player.

 

It is sort of the same at the trade deadline. You know in every trade, the seller accepts the trade from the team that offered them the most. The acquiring team overpaid by just enough to “win” the trade.

 

So, the goal of a Buyer when they really want to acquire a player should be to overpay, but just by a little bit. Each team should also have a maximum amount (in terms of prospects) for each player.

 

So as it relates to the trade deadline, what does that mean? For each of the following players, how much would you be willing to trade? How much is too much?

 

Noah Syndergaard:

Marcus Stroman:

Ken Giles:

Mike Minor:

Lance Lynn;

Sergio Romo:

Daniel Hudson:

And the list goes on and on.

 

How much do we love “our” prospects? But how much do we want to increase the Twins likelihood of winning a World Series incrementally? That is the question for you in the comments below, but it is also the question for the Twins front office in the next four to five days.

 

SCOUTING UPDATES

 

There are often scouts from other organizations at minor league games, just doing their job and getting information on players from the Twins organization. However, I have heard that there have been a lot of scouts in the last couple of weeks, particularly in Ft. Myers and Pensacola. The teams that have sent scouts to the Twins include (but certainly not limited to) the Blue Jays, Mets, Tigers, Royals, Giants, Rangers and Diamondbacks.

 

That only makes sense. Teams are looking for pitching, and almost every night, there are real quality pitching prospects going for those affiliates. Teams certainly want to get a look at the likes of Edwar Colina, Jhoan Duran, Blayne Enlow, and even a guy like Cole Sands who has been really strong in his professional debut. Scouts have seen Jordan Balazovic, though his next start will be for Team Canada against Cuba on Tuesday at the Pan Am games in Peru. And they would certainly like to see Brusdar Graterol who hasn’t pitched in a game since May 19th, though there were reports this week that he could start a rehab assignment soon in the GCL.

 

As for position players, the players that teams are scouting are in the lineup most every day, so it’s easier to know that they can be seen.

 

There are scouts assigned to cover certain teams, and generally speaking they continue to be on-hand and scout as usual. However, over these last week or two they may be asked to focus on a target or two. Also over this time frame, teams may pull one of their other scouts will be pull off of their regular duty to get extra eyes on an organization that could be a trade partner.

 

Twins Rumors

 

On Thursday afternoon, the big talker became Noah Syndergaard.

 

On Friday afternoon, the spotlight shifted again, this time north of the border to Marcus Stroman and Ken Giles.

 

 

Jon Morosi from MLB Network got Twins fans talking for going very specific. A top-of-rotation starter and a veteran reliever are available, but Morosi says the Twins aren’t sure that they would give up both Trevor Larnach and Brusdar Graterol for him.

 

Would the price come down if the teams waiting until Tuesday or Wednesday, or will another team swoop them up? Would it cost more or less to acquire the two together or in separate deals? In other words, what would the cost be for the Twins to acquire Stroman and then to acquire Giles (or another top reliever) in individual deals?

 

And how does the Twins interest in Daniel Hudson factor into these discussions?

 

 

Hey Sergio!

 

The Twins will be in Miami during the trade deadline next week. Could they get Sergio Romo to switch dugouts mid-series?

 

 

The 36-year-old is in his 12th season in the big leagues. He won three World Series titles with the Giants. He has 126 saves. He has 10.0 K/9 rate and 2.1 BB/9. This year with the Marlins, he has a 7.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 to go with a 3.58 ERA. He is also 17 for 18 in save opportunities.

 

Romo is now a soft-tosser, reliant on his moxie, and a good mix of changeup and slider. The cost to acquire him would be quite low.

 

 

Syndergaard Updates

 

Joel Sherman from the New York Post.reported again on Friday night that the Mets are definitely looking to trade Noah Syndergaard. He mentions the Astros, Braves and Padres are the teams they feel have the best opportunity to acquire him.

 

LaVelle Neal from the Star Tribune noted on Thursday that it might take Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff to acquire Syndergaard. That should not be the case for the hard-throwing right-hander who has an ERA over 4 this year and missed most of the 2017 season with injury. But he is an ace caliber right-hander who has two more years of team control after this year.

 

Dan Hayes from The Athletic pointed out that the Twins would be willing to move Lewis or Kirilloffin the right deal, meaning, for an Ace starting pitcher.

 

In the same Sherman article, he pointed out that the likelihood that closer Edwin Diaz being traded “has greatly increased as well.” In fact, Jim Bowden says there may be more interest in the hard-throwing right-hander.

 

 

And hey, Ken Rosenthal has found a scenario where the Mets trade Syndergaard to the Padres and then the Mets would acquire Marcus Stroman. Ah, trade deadline rumors.

 

 

Twins Inquire on Robbie Ray Availability

 

 

Yeah, that’s really it. The Twins have called the Diamondbacks to ask about Robbie Ray…

 

As they have called on probably every potentially available pitcher at the trade deadline.

 

Cross Him Off the List…

 

One name mentioned in Twins rumors over the last month has been traded. On Saturday afternoon, Royals lefty reliever Jake Diekman became A’s lefty reliever Jake Diekman, per Jeff Passon:

 

 

The A’s sent two minor leaguers to Kansas City to complete the deal,20-year-old right-hander Ismael Aquino (second season in the Arizona League) and outfielder Dairon Blanco, a 26-year-old Cuban outfielder in AA.

 

(I was asked what an equivalent trade from the Twins may have looked like. I think the best I could do to compare would be GCL RHP Donny Breek and AA/AAA OF Jimmy Kerrigan.

 

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[Richie the Rally Goat]

If Romo is the third bullpen guy picked up, I’m happy. If he’s the first I’m PO’ed.

[Thegrin]

I've come to 2 conclusions.  1) The Twins should NOT overpay with top prospects for ANY starter. Our starters are good enough to do the job.

2) We could trade a Minor League reliever for a rental reliever, but I would be careful which reliever we overpay with.

BECAUSE:  When a team gets to the Playoffs and World Series luck plays a big part of the success of any team.  Just because we get an ace reliever or starter, doesn't mean he will shut down the opposing team in a critical situation.  Good hitters hit good pitchers sometimes.   All the contending teams are loaded with good hitters.

Conclusion: Lets go with what we have.  Lets trust the last half of the season to the AAA pitchers we have seen.  Some of them look like they will work out just fine. 

[Rosterman]

We could use a fer sure closer.

 

Defining PROSPECT. The window for a prospect is 3-5 years. Will they make the major leagues in that amount of time, and once in the majors how long to become a aprt of the team and contribute in some way. 

 

How many players make their major league debut each season from a draft staying thru the farm system each season. 4 or 5 guys, perhaps. (Yes, if totally in rebuilding mode, more). But out of those 40 names thrown into the organization following each draft day, how many spend 2-3 years in a minor league stsem, and how many get even a sliver of major league play with the drafted organization or another.

 

Those are the magic ways you look at Prospects. And you look at depth and who is bumping whom (see Nick Gordon and Luis Arraez, for example). Actually, look at the Twin starting pitcher prospects going into 2018 compared to today. Wow. 

 

Is a team looking for players to put in time this season, contribute in a major way next season, and how many people will they gamble on for the future (think Santana to the Mets...we got a pitcher we needed to protect, an outfielder that we felt didn't need another year in the minors - and was flipped for a shortstop, and two pitchers...one who we flipped for Jon Rauch, one who never got to pitch for the Twins in his time in the minors or on the 40-man). Except that we added Hardy and Rauch as names in this deal, shows you that players received in a trade can also be used in a trade. But in the scheme of things, made no difference in the standings for the Twins.

 

The Twins don't need Alex and Lewis of theya re keeping Rsoario and Buxton for a few more seasons of play. By then they have Larnach or others in the wings. So both of those HIGH draft choices could be in play -- except the Twins haven't signed Buxton or Rosario beyond the next couple of seasons. Or maybe they have higher feelings for the two high draft picks to repalce these guys, who will also be trade bait if theya re signed or not.

 

It is a fascinating business, this baseball.

 

I just wish they would eliminate one aspect. Somehow, in this day and age, I don't like the idea that you sell someone to someone else...i.e. "cash considerations" - although that is probably the whole purpose of independent league abseball.

[LFRGary]

I'm tired of this. If Falvine doesn't trade for Syndergaard or Edwin Diaz, then they've failed. Of those 2, I'd easily prefer Diaz. He's under team control through 2022 & he's a strikeout machine (61 Ks in 39.1 innings.) If we have to give up a Kiriloff or Lewis to get him, then thats the price of playing the last game of the postseason.

 

The Twins' farm system has lots of talent. That's nice but that doesn't put World Series trophies in the building. Sometimes, you've got to take a chance to win the ultimate prize. Piling up talent is fun. it gives us lots to talk about but I want hardware!!!

[brvama]

Good article Seth. If we only knew the evaluations of the FO and their self-imposed limits. But then that take all the fun of speculating as to what will happen.

 

Rosterman, I was entertaining almost the same thoughts earlier today. Thanks for posting so I didn't have to.

 

The past few days I've change my position some on what players I'd be willing to move. Now, it's all of them for the right piece, with the caveat that It would not create a stress on the system or vacates good depth which could be important support for the Twins, now and in the near future. For example, would the loss of Lewis put the Twins in a bind the next couple of years? Not likely as Polanco is signed for 4 more and we have others in the pipeline. However in his case it better be for the right piece.

[DWD]

The twins should make a trade for Stroman and Giles asap. Then try to flip Stroman and prospects for Syndergaard and Diaz.

[notoriousgod71]

 

If Romo is the third bullpen guy picked up, I’m happy. If he’s the first I’m PO’ed.

 

 I have been predicting Romo for two months now so that would make me cynically ecstatic.

[jorgenswest]

Seems like Romo headed to Twins according to Passan.

 

I would guess that one of Parker, Magill or Morin out pitch him the final two months.

Edited July 28, 2019 by jorgenswest

[Cornholio]

Seems like Romo headed to Twins according to Passan.

For Lewin Díaz. Twins get MiLB pitcher as well.

[Mr. Brooks]

Marlins 23rd ranked prospect, Chris Valliant is the pitcher we're getting back.

He's their 5th round pick from 2018. Good fastball and slider, questionable control.

Looks like a decent lottery ticket.

We're also getting back a PTBNL.

[Mr. Brooks]

Seems like Romo headed to Twins according to Passan.

 

I would guess that one of Parker, Magill or Morin out pitch him the final two months.

Three guys can't take one roster spot though, so you have to predict which one of the three is going to outpitch him.

Which one will it be?

[Seansy]

Great write up Seth! I'm actually pretty excited about the Romo trade. Veteran with playoff experience, great slider, and his hard hit rate is in top 2% of league. As long as they use him right and only match him up against RH he is a good pick up.

Disappointed we did not get Diekman, especially given how low the prospect cost was. He was definitely one of my favorite under the radar targets for the Twins. While the walks are a concern everything was elite level stuff for a LHP and I have confidence Wes Johnson could of worked some magic to help him reduce his walks a bit and maybe even throw a bit harder. 

[howeda7]

The Twins get about one season to go for it per decade and this is one of them. The Yankees rotation is a mess. Houston is good, but we already showed we can hang with them. Odorizzi is back to 2018 form. We have no chance in games 2 or 3 of any play-off series with our current rotation. They need another starter, whether it be Stroman, Syndergaard or someone else. 

[scottz]

I haven’t been following all trade rumors 100% of the time, but this is the first I’ve heard of specifics (Larnach and Graterol) for Stroman and Giles. If that is correct, let’s do it already! It hurts a bit because those two seem pretty solid, but give some to get some.

[Elliot]

One of my he problems with big name players is that we tend to remember what they have done in the past and equate it to present value. The role of the FO is to determine what value they bring in the window of control; just a couple of months for many of these players. Same issue is there in FA. The mistake is to pay now for past performance rather than reasonable expected future results.

Couple this with the uncertainty of prospects and it gets very difficult. Of the prospects mentioned in the rumors and discussions, most will not be stars, and many will never see MLB. No one knows which will be which.

So the FO makes their best guess in hopes of giving a career minor leaguer for a Justin Verlander type of ace. That would be great, but the outcome with biggest impact is trading the next Kepler/Rosario/Berrios/Garver/Polanco for a couple of months of someone living on past performance. Then we get to see the bad results for years (Capps and Ramos).

[TopGunn#22]

The idea of doing the Stroman/Giles for Larnach and Graterol and then spinning Stroman to the Mets in a Syndergaard package is interesting.   Absent that, what major league pitcher would the Twins include in a package with the Mets for Syndergaard ??   Gibson, Odorizzi and Pineda are all FA's after the season.  Could one of them be included ??  Or would the Mets not be interested in acquiring a major league pitcher who would be a FA after the end of the season ??   Would that mean, by default, that the needed pitcher would be Martin Perez ??   Or is there a minor league starter that the Mets would be comfortable sliding right into their rotation ??