Twins are impressive... but they won't win their division in 2019.

[killebrewlover]

So if anyone's been watching the Twins since the all star break, one thing is becoming brutally clear.  They are on borrowed time when it comes to leading, and having any chance of ultimately winning, the division.  Their recent losses to Oakland and the New York Yankees have exposed a major flaw in their chemistry that has been brewing since the season began.  The bullpen.  It was blatantly illustrated in the game last night against the Yanks when, despite building an early 6 run lead in the fourth, and then scoring 2 in the eighth to retake the lead they had lost in the top of the inning, they were unable to close out the game, eventually giving up another 2 runs in the 10th.

 

There's no denying that the Twins are on a record setting pace for home runs, and several other offensive categories for that matter. The Twins can score a lot of runs on any given night.  That's a fact!  The problem is, they HAVE to as an essential part of their "sole-chance-of-winning" recipe.  The reason?  The bullpen can't be trusted to hold a lead, and certainly not against a team like the Yankees (and there are others!).  How many games do we have to see May, Parker, Rogers, and so on, struggle to get that final out or two, or three, to end an inning, only to given up a series of hits that spell doom for the Twinkies. Add to this the fact that the Twins have played in a lot of extra inning behemoths this year. This exacerbates an already season weary set of arms and psyches.

 

So as the season progresses, unless we see major pitching acquisitions/trades before the deadline, or a little (a lot of) help from their opponents, I'm fairly certain the division championship is gonzo.  Hello Cleveland, who by the way is in much better pitching shape than the Twins.  It pains me to see it this way, but I believe my vision is 20/20 on this point. So Twins bullpen, please, please, prove me wrong!

[twinssporto]

Congratulations on making your first post. Welcome to the discussion!  However, I disagree with some of your comments. Yes, we seriously need to improve our bullpen. Regardless, have you ever heard of the old business adage, nothing happens until you sell something...You gotta score runs as well as pitch. Cleveland doesn't have much offense. Yankees or Astros will carve them up.

[Dman]

I agree with you Cleveland will prove to be the better team.  Their pitching is just that much better and their hitters with Lindor back are doing enough to win games.  Unless they suffer some injuries to some key bats the Indians will catch and over take us. 

 

Pitching just isn't where it needs be quite yet with the Twins.  That includes the starters and the Bullpen IMO.  It was a fun start to the season but this is still a team that can't beat the Yankees and likely can't beat Houston when it really matters either.  

 

They are a fun team to watch but I just don't see how they can match up to other good teams when the playoffs come.  Honestly unless something miraculous happens they won't prove you wrong.

[darin617]

It's depressing to see such a great hitting team with the pitching struggling so bad.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Cleveland is 15-21 against teams over .500 this season.

 

That means two things:

 

1. They've been pretty bad against good teams this season, though they've been injured so that offsets things a bit.

 

2. We're roughly 100 games into the season and Cleveland has played just 36 games against good teams. By comparison, after tonight the Twins will have played 53 games against teams over .500. Cleveland's opponents haven't only been weak, they've been the weakest in the AL. The next closest is Boston, which has played 48 games against good teams.

 

Cleveland has been able to coast for quite some time now. That will not continue. After they play four against KC, they have to face opponents at or near .500 for three straight weeks.

[brvama]

Cleveland is 15-21 against teams over .500 this season.

 

That means two things:

 

1. They've been pretty bad against good teams this season, though they've been injured so that offsets things a bit.

 

2. We're roughly 100 games into the season and Cleveland has played just 36 games against good teams. By comparison, after tonight the Twins will have played 53 games against teams over .500. Cleveland's opponents haven't only been weak, they've been the weakest in the AL. The next closest is Boston, which has played 48 games against good teams.

 

Cleveland has been able to coast for quite some time now. That will not continue. After they play four against KC, they have to face opponents at or near .500 for three straight weeks.

Add to this, our August schedule mirrors Cleveland’s July romp in the park. And the fact that Buxton has been on the IL I am still optimistic they take the division. The last 7 games have been a good test and really could have gone to the Twins advantage with a couple of hits or outs. In other words, they have played both the Yankees and A’s fairly even and without Buxton. We are seeing some potential from some of our rookie pitchers but still need to acquire a couple of better and seasoned relievers this next week.

[USAFChief]

 

Cleveland is 15-21 against teams over .500 this season.

 

That means two things:

 

1. They've been pretty bad against good teams this season, though they've been injured so that offsets things a bit.

 

2. We're roughly 100 games into the season and Cleveland has played just 36 games against good teams. By comparison, after tonight the Twins will have played 53 games against teams over .500. Cleveland's opponents haven't only been weak, they've been the weakest in the AL. The next closest is Boston, which has played 48 games against good teams.

 

Cleveland has been able to coast for quite some time now. That will not continue. After they play four against KC, they have to face opponents at or near .500 for three straight weeks.

Schedule is way overrated in baseball. Who you play is only mildly important. How YOU play is a much bigger factor.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Schedule is way overrated in baseball. Who you play is only mildly important. How YOU play is a much bigger factor.

That's not true at all. Cleveland has to face the Astros, Yankees, Angels, Rangers, Twins, and Red Sox in the next three weeks after going on a tear against the Tigers, Royals, Orioles, Royals, Reds, Tigers, Twins, Royals, and Blue Jays for the past month and a half. A month and a half of play and they faced one good team: the Twins. They lost two of three.

 

Do you seriously think that doesn't matter?

 

Again, read through those teams I just listed in the second half of that sentence.

[USAFChief]

 

That's not true at all. Cleveland has to face the Astros, Yankees, Angels, Rangers, Twins, and Red Sox in the next three weeks after going on a tear against the Tigers, Royals, Orioles, Royals, Reds, Tigers, Twins, Royals, and Blue Jays for the past month and a half.

 

Do you seriously think that doesn't matter?

 

Again, read through those teams I just listed in the second half of that sentence.

Yeah, I seriously believe that schedule in baseball just isn't that big of a factor. Any team can beat any team. Don't play well, you lose 3 of 4 to the White Sox. Or two straight at home to the Mets.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yeah, I seriously believe that schedule in baseball just isn't that big of a factor. Any team can beat any team. Don't play well, you lose 3 of 4 to the White Sox. Or two straight at home to the Mets.

Sure, of course. 

 

But literally read through those teams. Do you think the Yankees, Angels, and Astros are going to lay down and die like the Orioles, Royals, Tigers, and Blue Jays?

 

I don't know what to say if you believe it doesn't matter that a team that hasn't played well against good teams now has to face a string of good teams, a couple of those teams being demonstrably better than Cleveland.

[dadams1000]

I think a lot of the problem has to be laid at the feet of the pitching coach. Why is it Twins pitchers are constantly pitching behind in the count,ALL OF THEM. Time and time again they put themselves in a position of weakness by being behind in the count. What is the constant, what do they all have in common? Just a thought.

[Danchat]

My two cents: the Twins' run in May to June was incredible, but unsustainable.

 

Two more cents: The Indians' current run is similarly unsustainable.

 

The Twins schedule gets considerably easier and the Indians' August schedule has some rough patches. I imagine the Indians will need to not only win a good chunk of the remaining 10 games vs the Twins, or sustain their great play against teams above .500, so I like the Twins chances at the moment, despite the slump.

[USAFChief]

 

Sure, of course. 

 

But literally read through those teams. Do you think the Yankees, Angels, and Astros are going to lay down and die like the Orioles, Royals, Tigers, and Blue Jays?

 

I don't know what to say if you believe it doesn't matter that a team that hasn't played well against good teams now has to face a string of good teams, a couple of those teams being demonstrably better than Cleveland.

I don't think the Orioles, Royals, Tigers or Blue Jays lied down and died. I think they lack talent. But you still have to beat them.

 

Cleveland isn't the same team they were in April-May. Nor apparently are the Twins, for that matter.

 

The Twins won't dominate anybody, including Chicago, KC, and Detroit, if they keep playing like they've played over the past month or so. Cleveland isn't going to keep playing .800 baseball, but they only need to play 3 games above .500 from here on out to pass the Twins if the Twins are a .500 team. 

 

And there are 9 games left head to head, I believe. 

 

 

 

 

[RedBull34]

 

Yeah, I seriously believe that schedule in baseball just isn't that big of a factor. Any team can beat any team. Don't play well, you lose 3 of 4 to the White Sox. Or two straight at home to the Mets.

If the Twins were playing how they played during this last series against the White Sox or Royals, they go 3-0.  Sure the pitching was not good, but the Yankees are a fantastic hitting team 1-9.  The Royals 2-4 hitters are worse then the Yankees 7-9 (last nights 6-8 with no Sanchez).

[Squirrel]

What I think is nothing is guaranteed, especially not in baseball. You can make your best guesses based on a lot of things, including schedule, which should/could play a part. That said, yes, the Twins also have to perform. Pitching is a weakness and it shows. It ain’t over til it’s over and my only prediction will be is that it’s going to be close to the end. The Twins could make some trades and/or have a couple minor leaguers that find their way and stick. We could be without Buxton through the season. We could face another injury. Cleveland could, too. Schedule is important, but no more than all the rest of it but it can’t be discounted, either.

 

I don’t like prognosticating. Is that a word? Anyway, I don’t. It either makes me very disappointed at the end, or very hopeless in the present, so I’ll take each game as it comes and just wait to see who wins out in the end.

[killebrewlover]

Sure. If you're betting at Vegas, statistical averages matter in how you decide to put your money down. The Twins have had a rough patch in July and the talent they played had a lot to do with it. But there are factors beyond statistics. I agree to some extent with USAFChief when he says "HOW you play is a much bigger factor..." [than WHO you play]. It goes back to my original point. It's not WHO the twins bullpen is pitching to. It's HOW they're pitching to them.  The "full count" comment made is a valid one. But I believe it comes down to the fact that the Twins bullpen just isn't good enough to win over the long haul (certainly an entire season).

 

In a long year of baseball, IMHO pitching, not offense, becomes the most important factor in increasing your odds of late season runs and success. The Twins don't have it. Not really.

 

Fun to watch them score lots of runs? Hit lots of dingers? Of course. But by the end of the season, their pitching will likely put them in a fight for their wild-card lives!

[Otto von Ballpark]

Cleveland is 15-21 against teams over .500 this season.

 

That means two things:

 

1. They've been pretty bad against good teams this season, though they've been injured so that offsets things a bit.

 

2. We're roughly 100 games into the season and Cleveland has played just 36 games against good teams. By comparison, after tonight the Twins will have played 53 games against teams over .500. Cleveland's opponents haven't only been weak, they've been the weakest in the AL. The next closest is Boston, which has played 48 games against good teams.

 

Cleveland has been able to coast for quite some time now. That will not continue. After they play four against KC, they have to face opponents at or near .500 for three straight weeks.

Cleveland is 2-1 vs NYY, 2-1 vs BOS, 2-2 vs HOU. The Twins are now 1-2, 2-3, and 4-3 against those same 3 clubs.

 

What drags down the CLE record vs 500+ teams is a 1-5 mark vs Oakland and 1-3 vs Tampa, all accumulated while they were sputtering in May. Back then, Cleveland still had Gonzalez (OPS+ 47) and Martin (OPS 60+) in their regular lineup, both since DFA'd, and were missing Clevinger (as well as Kluber who is still out). Oakland still had ace Frankie Montas back then, whom the Twins missed in July while going 3-4 vs OAK. And even so, 4 of those 5 CLE losses to OAK were by only 1-2 runs (shades of the close Twins series) and they're now done with OAK for the season (and only play Tampa 3 more times).

 

No argument that Cleveland has played a light schedule that will get tougher, of course. But I'm not sure it's accurate to simply say "they've struggled against good teams" on the basis of that 15-21 record.

 

FWIW, B-Ref shows SoS (Strength of Schedule) and indeed Cleveland has the lowest in the AL so far, at -0.6. But next lowest is the Twins, at -0.4.

[twinsnorth49]

Seems to me there is a better chance a team over .500 is going to play better than a team under .500. On any given day teams over .500 are winning more often, kind of how they got there.

 

If winning the last series of the season guaranteed you a division title,who would you rather play? The Tigers or the Yankees? Its not even close.

[Number3]

It was a shame to see the Twins lose that series when they scored  27 runs and were outscored by 3 total. Now they need to go on a run with Berrios on the hill tonight.

I still am as much concerned with Buxton's durability and Sano's failure to be the impact player he is touted as being.

Anyone who thinks the competition doesn't make a difference must think baseball is golf and the teams just take turns playing against the ball park.

10 games left against the .309 Tigers. Thanks Ron. Yes, Gardenhire is the perfect manager for a .300 winning % team. I used to call .400 the Gardenhire line when he managed the Twins.

Everyone bashes the bull pen but the starters' collective approach against the Yankees was awful and the pen did a nice job in game 1. Odorizzi had no control  and was simply teeing it up for the savages. I would love to see a junk pither or a Greg Maddox type go against the Yankees who simply feast on power pitchers. "Didi" (or whatever his name is) eho drove in 7 in game 2 flatly said he looks for mistakes and hits them.

to Killebrewlover, that is where my Number3 comes from.

Go Twins!

[killebrewlover]

Hey, whether you're a Twins fan or not, it's great to see an uncommon face on top of the division for once! Go Twins!

 

[Dman]

 

Cleveland is 2-1 vs NYY, 2-1 vs BOS, 2-2 vs HOU. The Twins are now 1-2, 2-3, and 4-3 against those same 3 clubs.

What drags down the CLE record vs 500+ teams is a 1-5 mark vs Oakland and 1-3 vs Tampa, all accumulated while they were sputtering in May. Back then, Cleveland still had Gonzalez (OPS+ 47) and Martin (OPS 60+) in their regular lineup, both since DFA'd, and were missing Clevinger (as well as Kluber who is still out). Oakland still had ace Frankie Montas back then, whom the Twins missed in July while going 3-4 vs OAK. And even so, 4 of those 5 CLE losses to OAK were by only 1-2 runs (shades of the close Twins series) and they're now done with OAK for the season (and only play Tampa 3 more times).

No argument that Cleveland has played a light schedule that will get tougher, of course. But I'm not sure it's accurate to simply say "they've struggled against good teams" on the basis of that 15-21 record.

FWIW, B-Ref shows SoS (Strength of Schedule) and indeed Cleveland has the lowest in the AL so far, at -0.6. But next lowest is the Twins, at -0.4.

 

Great post.  Sums up my feelings with facts.  Cleveland isn't the same team that started this season.  I suspect they will have more success against some of these better teams than we think because you can see how good pitching (i.e Smeltzer) can hold that Yankees lineup down.  Cleveland has solid pitching.  I know the Twins were in a bit of a slump this last month but we struggled to get wins against even bad teams in Detroit, KC and the WhiteSox it seems Cleveland handled those teams with ease.  Maybe we are back on track now but hard to say just yet.

 

 

Certainly lots of baseball left and things can change for both teams but unless the Twins can pitch much better than they have been this feels like a 500 team to me and I think Cleveland is slightly better than that.  Maybe the trade deadline brings in some help, maybe the young guys give our pitching staff a lift but as I see things right now today it feels like we lose the division.

[Number3]

Since 2010 anyway.

Getting back to the bull pen, did anyone bother to check last nights box score? Smeltzer was not trying to overpower the Yankees and the results speak for themselves.

[luckylager]

Wish you would step back from that ledge my friend. It's way too early to cede the season to the Indians. The Twins still have the division lead. They will make some additions to their pitching staff before the trade deadline. A couple of the recent pitching call ups look like they may be able to help down the stretch. Buxton should be back soon. The Twins schedule is about to become less challenging. The Indians started the season very shaky, but have gone on an amazing tear the last month and a half, they will should cool off. There are still two full months of baseball to play, enjoy it! Last season was over in April. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Cleveland is 2-1 vs NYY, 2-1 vs BOS, 2-2 vs HOU. The Twins are now 1-2, 2-3, and 4-3 against those same 3 clubs.

What drags down the CLE record vs 500+ teams is a 1-5 mark vs Oakland and 1-3 vs Tampa, all accumulated while they were sputtering in May. Back then, Cleveland still had Gonzalez (OPS+ 47) and Martin (OPS 60+) in their regular lineup, both since DFA'd, and were missing Clevinger (as well as Kluber who is still out). Oakland still had ace Frankie Montas back then, whom the Twins missed in July while going 3-4 vs OAK. And even so, 4 of those 5 CLE losses to OAK were by only 1-2 runs (shades of the close Twins series) and they're now done with OAK for the season (and only play Tampa 3 more times).

No argument that Cleveland has played a light schedule that will get tougher, of course. But I'm not sure it's accurate to simply say "they've struggled against good teams" on the basis of that 15-21 record.

FWIW, B-Ref shows SoS (Strength of Schedule) and indeed Cleveland has the lowest in the AL so far, at -0.6. But next lowest is the Twins, at -0.4.

I mentioned they struggled against good teams and immediately couched that by saying they were suffering through injuries during that period. Past performance does not guarantee future results and all that.

 

And, yes, both teams have weak schedules because they're the only two good teams in a pretty bad division. But one of those teams (the Twins) has played quite a few games against good teams while the other (Cleveland) has played cupcakes for most of the season. Given that both teams are in the same division, that is going to equalize going forward and that's a good thing for the Twins.

 

I don't really get why I'm seeing pushback on pointing out that Cleveland has played the fewest games against good teams in the entire league. That's just a fact.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Another thing to think about is that if you backload a schedule with bad teams through August and September, those previously bad teams have likely sold their best pieces and have become terrible teams.

 

Inversely, having to play good teams late usually means you end up playing better teams for the opposite reason.

 

I'm not predicting anything but the Twins have a leg up on Cleveland in this regard and it shouldn't be controversial to point it out.

[Doomtints]

I have been saying it for a while ... this team reminds me heavily of the 2001 Twins. This is, as you can imagine, not a popular thing to say and a lot of people disagree vehemently. Those Twins had an identical hot start, hovered around .500 for a bit to maintain their lead, and then hit a wall when a couple of bizarre moves at the trade deadline and an unfortunate injury sunk the team. So far, the track is identical.

 

Whether or not these Twins suffer the same fate as that team did, losing the division to Cleveland down the stretch, we will just have to wait and see.

 

Whatever happens, 2001 was an exciting season and put the Twins on the map as a serious team. We all know how the decade went after 2001, so if the Twins don't make it this year there are still (probably) a few good years to come.

[Doomtints]

 

No push back here on Cleveland's schedule. I'd like to concentrate on the Twins instead of Cleveland for a second. I think we will need to win 95 or more games to win the division.

 

I think 95 won't do it. I think they need 98 or 99 to win the division.

[Doomtints]

 

 

Another thing to think about is that if you backload a schedule with bad teams through August and September, those previously bad teams have likely sold their best pieces and have become terrible teams.

 

You've watched the AL Central long enough to know that usually all but one team plays VERY HARD in the last few weeks against whoever has the division lead. You could almost call the AL Central 'The Spoiler Division.'

No one in this division is going to give the Twins anything this year.

[gunnarthor]

Geez, the Twins have the 4th best record in all of baseball and also has the 4th best run differential. Cleveland is 7th in the AL alone. Everyone needs to relax. The Twins are going to win the division handily. We have a .547 winning percentage against winning teams, Cleveland has a .416 winning percentage. They just aren't that good. They won't make the playoffs. Twins will probably have the second seed.

 

People are overreacting to some tough close losses. This team will be fine. Doesn't mean that they shouldn't make some pitching improvements, of course.

[Rosterman]

Weak teams have nothing to lose. And good teams playing them often find, later in the season, facing unfamiliar faces. More homework to do.

 

The Twins rotation, although strong overall, tends to NOT consistenly go deep in the game, thus the wear and tear on the pen. If the Twins choose to keep people like Smeltzer, Thorpe, Stashak etc. they finally have a group of pitchers who can pitch thru a lineup in relief.

 

It would be ncie t be able to define a bullpen arm as a ground ball guy or a flyball guy, besides strikeout potential. Right now, it is anyone's guess how the outs will come.

 

The Twins do have a better schedule for the remainder of the season than Cleveland, having gone thru their toughest week of the season. The lead, as of today, in only two games (remember when it was 11+ and remember still when Cleveland was actually a game below .500?). 

 

The Twins have to do everything possible to keep the exciotement going, so they make tons of money and keep the stands full. That is JOB #1. Getting to the Postseason is Job #2. Winning is the Postseason is Job #3. Actually, all three of those are Job #1 - no need to multitask!