Article: Could the Twins Miss the Playoffs?

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota’s series with the Yankees has provided some unbelievable moments. The Yankees have the top record in the American League, and it seems evident the Twins are more than up to the challenge of competing with them. These two clubs could be destined for a playoff match-up, but what happens if the Twins don’t make it to the party. Combine Minnesota’s shrinking division lead with other rising AL contenders and it’s not a sure thing that the Twins will be punching their ticket to October baseball.Standings Check-In

The Twins enter play on Thursday with a three-game lead in the AL Central. At the beginning of June, the Twins were up 10.5 games as Cleveland had squeaked out a .500 record up to that point. By the end of June, Minnesota still had a comfortable eight game lead, but then Cleveland really turned on the heat. The Indians have gone 13-4 in July with two of their losses coming against the Twins. Some will point to Cleveland’s recent opponents as the reasons for their success, but they are winning the games in front of them.

 

According to Baseball Reference, the Twins have a 96.2% chance of making the playoffs and a 90.9% chance of winning the division. They put Cleveland’s odds at 9.1% to win the division and 41.1% to make the playoffs. Also, the site projects Minnesota’s best possible record as 104-58 and their worst record as 91-71. On the flip side, Cleveland’s best record is projected as 96-66 and their worst record could be 83-79. Cleveland’s best and Minnesota’s worst would put the Twins back into the AL Wild Card Game.

 

Cleveland currently sits in the first Wild Card spot with Oakland trailing by one game. Twins fans saw how good Oakland has been in their recent match-up and the A’s have a 7-3 record over their last 10 games. Boston and Tampa Bay sit two games behind the A’s, which means the Twins are six games up from being on the outside looking in.

 

Multiple Weaknesses

Minnesota has been running through a steady group of relievers from Rochester over the last couple weeks. This comes on the heels of the club parting ways with Matt Magill, Mike Morin and Adalberto Mejia. Minnesota cleared multiple roster spots without making any immediate additions to the bullpen. Cody Stashak made his MLB debut last night and he might have been the most effective Twins pitcher in a crazy game. Other players like Lewis Thorpe and Kohl Stewart are also getting some relief opportunities.

 

Twins relievers have seen some struggles in recent weeks albeit it has come against some strong opponents. Trevor May has given up multiple leads with some hanging breaking balls that ended up over the fence. He was even asked to pitch over 50 pitches in one game. On Thursday, Blake Parker was designated for assignment or release. Ryne Harper and Tyler Duffey have also had some blemishes on their record as of late. Even the team’s best reliever, Taylor Rogers, has seen some leads slip through his hands. Realistically, the bullpen needs some help and Rochester might not have the pieces the team needs.

 

The bullpen hasn’t been Minnesota’s only weakness. Fans have been frustrated with the Twins inability to get clutch hits with runners in scoring position, especially with the bases loaded. Twins batters have combined for an .820 OPS with runners in scoring position. However, the club has had 91 at-bats with the bases loaded this season while hitting .195/.213/.286 with only four extra-base hits. There seems to be some kind of hang-up when three men are on base instead of just having runners in scoring position.

 

Looming Trade Deadline

Minnesota could address some of their issues through trades in the next seven days. Earlier this week, Derek Falvey joined Darren Wolfson on his podcast to discuss the upcoming trade deadline. This year’s deadline is different since team’s cant make waiver trades after July 31. Falvey believes there will be a flurry of moves right before the deadline. Minnesota has given some consideration to being the first team to pull the trigger on a big trade, but that likely would mean the team is going to have to overpay to set the market.

 

Falvey went on to say, the Twins are interested in improving “overall pitching depth.” This could be starters, relievers or maybe the team can get creative. He mentioned, “If there are ways to add to our starting rotation, our pitching depth, is there a way to add to the bullpen at the same time?”

 

Fans might not want to hold out for any blockbuster trade. He believes the team is most likely looking for “supplements” to the current roster. If the team is going to win this year, it is going to be because of “the group that’s in the clubhouse right now.”

 

To some, that might not exactly be a vote of confidence. However, the Twins need to avoid doing anything brash, because those type of trades can come back to haunt an organization.

 

Do you think there’s a chance the Twins don’t make the playoffs? What would the repercussions be for the organization? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

Other Stories of Interest

Byron Buxton’s Not So Secret Value

Twins Getting Greatness from Utility

Buyer Beware: Avoiding a Chris Archer Trade

 

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[jtkoupal]

Absolutely they could. The Indians are playing a LOT better right now and could absolutely win the Central. In the Wild Card, the Rays, A's, and Red Sox are definitely capable of going on a run. The Twins, being in the division they are in, are still in good shape. However, they are not safe, and I think 538's current 93% playoff probability is too high.

[darin617]

Miss the playoffs or make the playoffs and be one and done.

 

 

It would be nice to see the Twins be as aggressive in the trade market as they are DFA RP's lately.

[Darius]

The way this team is pitching, the 96% number to make the playoffs is way too high.

 

90% to win the division while being 2 up on Cleveland (after we lose another to the Yankees tonight)? Who is coming up with these statistics?

 

My prediction: We get the second wildcard behind Oakland and get steamrolled out of Yankee Stadium. Same old story.

[Pius Jefferson]

So they beat Oakland in Oakland?

 

 

[Florida Loggerman]

Total Joke!  the ownership and front office won't do Jack! other than Jack Morris, under TK Tom Kelly this ownership and front offfice always want to fix as deep bullet wound with a damn band aid. I'm done kidding myself that this Minnesota franchise is any different than the Wolves, joke, the vikings, going to be another ugly season with Cousin's, already have Hll with 8 games out due to being a DA dumb a--!~  so leaving Jake in to get hammered for 10 hits, 9 earned runs is OK<  wtf man, I"m over this cluster cuss front office and ownership garbage,  I"m to old and too ill to sit and worry and think for one minute that a Minnesota franchise would come into a season with nothing not put on the table to be a winner?? other than the 2 awesome years under TK, with 2 world titles, the Vikngs, the Wild, the wolves, ya the women NBA were awesome for several years, great job ladies, but men wise, pure pathetic exucse and a total joke. This roster is going to hit 300 plus single home runs, but can't hit a lick with the bases loaded, it's all  between the ears, and the lack of a true leader, a capt. that can step up and lead this powerful hitting lineup, so sad and so sick and tired of having half a damn team, same with the Vikings, kick butt D, and s--t for braiins Cousin's unable to win diddly squat when it really counts, this current Twins team can easily miss the playoffs, why? same reason as the reason when the season started? dog crap pitching, from starters, to middle to No closer, for how many years now. who was the Twins last true closer, Joe Nathan I'm thinking, how long ago was that??? I'm so sick and tired of listening to Roco praisee this team, and especially after last nightsw nightmare loss??? Why as the mgr isn't Roco screaming at the owners and front office cussing them out with, you have to bring in some top tier starters, middle and closer to give me a damn shot a making the playoffs at best??? instead, oh boy, these guys really fight back, don't they, ya, Roco they do, so one question Mr. Mgr, how about those pitchers??? tonight, 8-2 lead, and we can not hold a lead no matter who you parade out there? and now, they have dropped another retread worn out used tire pitcher today? how many now have been dropped from the Twins roster? what does that tell us< not one of them would have made another MLB teams roster, none, not one?  yet, we paid millions of $$'s to watch them suck, game after game, loss after loss, I'm, not able to get in my Native pedal drive kayak and get out into the back waters to fish and clear my mind from watchng this once awesome Twins team turn into just another half team, great offensive cllub, with zero pithing, name one twins starter that would be a true #1 pitcher for the Astro's??? correct none of them, the kid Jose Berrios is the best of the group, and lately, he hasn't been good either, rehab Pineda, worthless Gibson, what bust he is turnng out to be, pay him big bucks to suck, great. Play off's what play off's??? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Total Joke!  the ownership and front office won't do Jack! other than Jack Morris, under TK Tom Kelly this ownership and front offfice always want to fix as deep bullet wound with a damn band aid. I'm done kidding myself that this Minnesota franchise is any different than the Wolves, joke, the vikings, going to be another ugly season with Cousin's, already have Hll with 8 games out due to being a DA dumb a--!~  so leaving Jake in to get hammered for 10 hits, 9 earned runs is OK

[jdoffing11]

 

Absolutely they could. The Indians are playing a LOT better right now and could absolutely win the Central. 

Its hard for me to say they are playing a lot better. Certainly they are winning, but we will see what happens when they stop playing Community College teams. Since June 20th they have played 5 games against teams that have a winning perecentage of above .380!!! In other words, they've played 22 of their last 27 games against teams on pace for 100 or more losses, and get 4 more games this weekend. The only team above .500 they played was us (they went 1-2 obviously). After this weekend, they only have 9 of those games left. We have 23. Its up to us to win head to head and focus in on stomping those bad teams.

[h2oface]

What trade of prospects has haunted this organization? I am not saying there isn't any, but I can't think of any, and if you know of one (some), I would sure like to be reminded of it. 

 

The trades that haunt this organization are trades of MLB players. Our guys. The fan's guys. The Twins. They haunt us from last year. Pressly. And I can think of Hicks. Morneau (I believe he went on to win a batting title). Escobar. Span. Gomez. I'm old enough to still be pissed about when they let Lyman Bostock go when I was 22 after the 1977 season (free agent cheaptitude, not a trade)! What are your peves?

 

So.....Falvey, go get a really good one, or couple. A Starter. A Reliever. or two. It is Falvey's job to make the right choice, and not pick a dud. That is his job. Not mine. Don't ask me who they are. That is what he is paid to do. This is the window. It may not come for years again. if he doesn't...... it must mean he is a double agent for Cleveland, and not really working for us. (It's a conspiracy)  

Edited July 25, 2019 by h2oface

[h2oface]

 

Its hard for me to say they are playing a lot better. Certainly they are winning, but we will see what happens when they stop playing Community College teams. Since June 20th they have played 5 games against teams that have a winning perecentage of above .380!!! In other words, they've played 22 of their last 27 games against teams on pace for 100 or more losses, and get 4 more games this weekend. The only team above .500 they played was us (they went 1-2 obviously). After this weekend, they only have 9 of those games left. We have 23. Its up to us to win head to head and focus in on stomping those bad teams.

 

But Cleveland wins those games. In this stretch since June 15, we have split with KC, lost a series to the White Sox, and got swept by the Mets! 3-6 right there against losing teams. So just because they are on the schedule, doesn't mean they are an automatic win. Our Twins really need to step up, and win a bunch of games, and get at least 30 games over .500.

Edited July 25, 2019 by h2oface

[Brock Beauchamp]

What trade of prospects has haunted this organization?

Wilson Ramos is the obvious example, though it doesn’t invalidate the rest of your point, as that trade was idiotic at the time and only became more idiotic as time passed.

[h2oface]

 

Wilson Ramos is the obvious example, though it doesn’t invalidate the rest of your point, as that trade was idiotic at the time and only became more idiotic as time passed.

 

But Ramos was already in the mix, and not really a prospect anymore. Maybe he was officially by the ABs or something, but the certain to be catcher replacement for Mauer sooner than later, and to be used at third base too as he backed up until that happened. (I thought I had included him, but I guess not). So to me, he was already a MLB player, traded for Capps. But certainly a new up and comer. Does that count? I guess that could be a prospect trade though.

Edited July 25, 2019 by h2oface

[jdoffing11]

 

But Cleveland wins those games. In this stretch since June 15, we have split with KC, lost a series to the White Sox, and got swept by the Mets! 3-6 right there against losing teams. So just because they are on the schedule, doesn't mean they are an automatic win. Our Twins really need to step up, and win a bunch of games, and get at least 30 games over .500.

I agree with that, especially lately we seem to have lost focus against losing teams, something we can't afford if we want to win the division. Its why I said its up to us to beat those teams like we should. I will say, though, there is a clear difference in teams like the White Sox and Mets compared to the Royals, Tigers, Blue Jays, and Orioles. I'm completely satisfied taking 2 out of 3 from the Mets or White Sox, but in a tight division race anything less than 3 out of 4 or a sweep against the Tigers or Royals is disappointing.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But Ramos was already in the mix, and not really a prospect anymore. Maybe he was officially by the ABs or something, but the certain to be catcher replacement for Mauer sooner than later, and to be used at third base too as he backed up until that happened. (I thought I had included him, but I guess not). So to me, he was already a MLB player, traded for Capps. But certainly a new up and comer. Does that count? I guess that could be a prospect trade though.

Ramos played seven games for Minnesota in May.

 

He was traded at the end of July.

[pierre75275]

And the Twins are only 2 games ahead of Cleveland now

[LanceJS]

Even if the Twins don't beat up on the also rans, Cleveland will certainly slow down when they stop playing them. Seven games left head to head. My feeling is that I don't care if the Twins finish one game ahead or twenty one, as long as they can hold on. As for trades, the Twins haven't been buyers for a number of years, even 2017, so hard to find that prospect that haunts them. Also, for all the complaints about the lack of activity, keep in mind this is a seller's market. I expect very little to happen until Tuesday or Wednesday, then a couple of contenders will panic and overlay for pitching. The Twins are one of those team I can see doing that.

[Dave Overlund]

Who honestly cares about the schedule getting easier? Why is that even a thing? 

 

I'm concerned that we can't contend with the good teams in the AL. You know, the ones we will meet in the playoffs. 

 

That's great if they beat on Kansas City and Detroit for the next 61 games, but it will all be for nothing if the pitching is not addressed. The goal should be winning the World Series, not just to make the playoffs or the Wild Card game, in my opinion.

[Bavarian]

They can absolutely be caught by Cleveland.  Now a 2-game lead and without Kluber! 

 

That 96% number is ridiculous.  This was a 12 game lead before the break and we have seen our starters laboring a bit.  Odorizzi is fading and the bullpen is getting in way too many innings.  They're gasping and sputtering before the dog days of August while the Indians are in cruise control.  My money's on the Indians who have been baseballs best team in the 2nd half the past 4 seasons under Francona.  The trending data is not in our favor. 

 

All that said, I do like the spirit of the team and they will be in every game with that batting lineup but I see a wild-card spot for the Twins. 

Edited July 25, 2019 by Bavarian

[Tomj14]

Sure they could miss the playoffs, their 10 game lead is down to 2 in about month, so their lead on the wild card could shrink just as easily.

I am not saving this current rookie reliever group is going to save the bullpen, but with the consistent short starts from the starters, it does seem like a much better idea to have some pitchers that can throw 2, 3, 4 inning, instead of trying to piece the bullpen together everyday for 3,4,5 innings.

 

[bighat]

Honestly I think this team could win a 1-game wild card series. They can compete with Houston, Tampa, and Cleveland. They can't win a series against the Yankees - but...can anyone in baseball compete with the NYY? That lineup is ridiculous.

 

Embarrassed for the bullpen guys, getting pantsed every night.

 

Exasperated witht the starting pitching. At the beginning of the year, we all thought Berrios might be the only guy worth anything. The smoke has cleared and sadly that is the case.

 

Feel sorry for the offense: Rosario, Cruz, Polanco, Kepler - guys putting up monster numbers and scoring 7, 8, 10 runs per game and coming up with losses.

 

Ashamed of the front office.

 

PS - Kluber's coming back in a couple weeks, the Indians are only getting better and they don't need to make a trade to do it.

 

If the Twins don't win the division or don't make the playoffs, the 14-12 loss to the Yankees will go down as the season's flagship moment.

 

 

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

Ramos played seven games for Minnesota in May.

 

He was traded at the end of July.

 

If Mauer did not have a concussion that trade would not have hurt the Twins.   One cannot predict future injuries when trading to win now.  And if Ramos was not traded, the Twins could have not made the post season that year.  Capps was lights out.  2.00 ERA and 16/18 saves.  That trade worked for the Twins.  Got them to the postseason.  The issue was Ryan re-signing Capps for no reason afterwards when he was not that good.

[Vanimal46]

 

Get out of here with these negative thoughts!

[jjotto]

I predict the Twins will finish 87-75. That may or may not get a Wildcard.

[akmanak]

This team will likely lose the division and squeak into the wild card. When the trade deadline passes without a whimper hopefully fans will realize that the owners don't care about a world series.

 

The Twins have NEVER made a significant trade except for Stewart before the trade deadline. Let that sink in for a moment.

[markos]

Probably worth pointing out that the Twins have the easiest remaining schedule in all of baseball. They have 61 games left, and 36 are against KC/CWS/DET/MIA. Cleveland, on the other hand, only has 24 games against those same opponents. And they have a brutal stretch upcoming. They have 4 games against KC this weekend, then a 20 game stretch that goes HOU/LAA/TEX/MIN/BOS/NYY.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Those odds don't look right to me... a 2 game lead should not equate to a 90% chance of winning the division.. yes, Cleveland has a tough stretch coming up shortly and we have an easy one, but with a 2 game lead, I'd call this a 2 team race that either team can win...

 

Bottom line is that the Twins need to get healthy, get some help, and play some better ball (particularly on the defensive side)... we've given away too many games when we should have had our foot on their throat. 

[FlauerPauer]

When's Buxton coming back?

[Loosey]

 

I predict the Twins will finish 87-75. That may or may not get a Wildcard.

You expect them to play 9 games under .500 the rest of the way?

[FlauerPauer]

I definitely don't have playoff expectations after this past month and the way that the FO is going about the trade deadline. I don't know, boys; it's not looking good.

[rkevin]

 

This roster is going to hit 300 plus single home runs, but can't hit a lick with the bases loaded, it's all  between the ears, and the lack of a true leader, a capt. that can step up and lead this powerful hitting lineup

That was a lot of ranting but I found a nugget in there. I believe your statement that "it's all between the ears" is true. That game last night, 10-7 Yankees, looked so much like a team trying but also knowing they have little chance. Yes, it is the Yankees and the Twins are their b**ch -- we have seen this scenario before so no real surprise.

 

As the season heads into the final third and then the home-stretch, strong leadership will prevail. Teams with good leaders will rise and overcome adversity, bad breaks, unlucky bounces, bad ump calls, etc. while those without that will fall. We do not know yet what we will see with the Twins. The leader needs to be the manager, that's what he is paid to do. Rocco is a nice guy and seems to say the right things...but he has yet to face some real difficult times and pressure of winning and staying on top. To date he hasn't fared that well...can't say it is all on him these past two months but eventually it lands on him. We shall see how he handles the remainder of this season and if he can be the leader the team needs to push forward and get a playoff spot.