Article: Trade Deadline Thread: Why So Few Trades So Far?

[Seth Stohs]

We are now one week from the MLB trade deadline. For the first time, there will be just one trade deadline, July 31st. Each day at Twins Daily, we will discuss some topic related to the trade deadline briefly to get your thoughts. Beyond that, we will highlight some of the rumors of that day, providing a place for the topic and the rumors to be discussed. Check back each day for more.As I mentioned, we are one week from the July 31st trade deadline. In years past, there were two trade deadlines. July 31st was the non-waiver trade deadline, meaning anyone can be traded up until that point. Then there was a second trade deadline at the end of August in which players had to be put on trade waivers to be traded. It’s a little more complex than that, but no need to dive into something that is no longer a thing this year.

 

The decision to have just one trade line was made this past offseason. A big reason for it was because of how slow the offseason free agency was. When the best free agents were still available in March and a couple were still available in June, they thought something needed to happen.

 

The idea was first proposed by the MLB Players Association to “"to protect the competitive integrity of the 162-game regular season, create more certainty for players and force teams to decide earlier whether they are buyers or sellers."

 

Many thought it would create more activity at the deadline. So far it hasn’t, unless trades of Homer Bailey or Andrew Cashner or Martin Maldonado excite you. Why?

 

At the end of the day, a deadline is a deadline. Right now, the “sellers” are asking for the world in terms of prospect return. No rational GM is going to do that.

 

Right now, most of the National League teams are still in playoff contention, at least to some degree. There are at least seven of the American League teams vying for five playoff spots as well. A few may choose to “Sell” by the time the deadline rolls around, but until then, they might as well keep playing.

 

Consider that the Giants have won 16 of their last 19 games and are now nearing a Wild Card spot. Does that mean that Madison Bumgarner and their slew of relief pitchers are still unavailable? Probably, at least for now.

 

Because of those names (and others) likely not being available right now, Jon Heyman thinks it could cause the Toronto Blue Jays to try to deal Marcus Stroman more quickly.

 

 

Earlier this week, Andrew Thares asked what it might take for the Twins to acquire Stroman.

 

Ultimately a deadline is a deadline. The fact that there is just one only means that there are more buyers (usually) at the July deadline than there might be if there was still an August deadline. GMs don’t want to overpay, and that’s what the sellers are trying to get in return right now. And the only thing that will force those sellers hands is the deadline. So I expect there may be a few traded trickling in over the next few days, I think that most trades will happen in the final 24-48 hours leading up to the July 31st deadline… same as it always has been.

 

 

Deadline Discussions

• MLB Trade Rumors created a poll asking readers to give their thoughts on the Pirates potentially trading left-handed reliever Felipe Vasquez, quietly one of the best relievers in baseball. What makes him intriguing (and very, very costly) is that he signed a four year, $20 million contract a couple of years ago. Looking into his contract, he is owned $5.25 million in 2020 and $7.25 million in 2021.Even better, he has two options in the deal in which he could get $10 million in 2022 ($1 million buyout) and 2023 ($500K buyout) if things are going well. Thieres wrote about Vasquez in our Potential Bullpen Target series.
• Old Friend Rhett Bollinger reported last Friday that the Angels had DFAd RHP Matt Harvey. On Tuesday, The Dark Knight officially became a free agent. Could he be a match for the Twins, maybe not as a starter, but as a long relief option?
• Jim Duquette in The Athletic wrote about six players he believes should not be traded right now, and that list includes four pitchers that have been linked to the Twins (to some degree) over the last month.
• Ken Rosenthal (The Athletic) asked if the Twins should have jumped on relievers sooner?
• And from our Forums, USA Chief writes an embattled plea to the Twins front office to make a move to help this Twins bullpen, and soon!
• Also in our Forums, there are threads dedicated to Noah Syndergaard and Matthew Boyd.
• On his most recent episode of The Scoops podcast, Darren Wolfson chatted with Trevor Hildenberger. As it relates to the trade deadline, he also spoke with Twins CBO Derek Falvey. Listen here.

Over the next week, we will provide a daily Trade Deadline thread in which we will discuss a topic briefly and provide some of the day’s rumors. Use this thread to discuss Twins rumors. Obviously if and when the Twins make a move, we will have an article ready to discuss that, but this should be a fun gathering ground for Twins rumors. If you see a Twins rumor, post it in the comments. Otherwise, let’s discuss.

 

This is a big week for the 2019 Twins.

 

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[SpicyGarvSauce]

Matt Harvey? I mean, seriously...why?

[SomeGuy]

21 teams are within 6.5 games of the playoffs. How mad would fans be if the Twins sold at 5-6 games back? Some fans were pretty mad last season at 9 games out.

 

I still think the change to one deadline was a bad decision. Teams like Arizona and Texas are feeling forced to sell with winning records. Selling teams are able to ask for massive overpays because the supply is much less than the demand. In the end we will likely see upset fan bases for teams who weren't gutsy enough to go for it at 5 games back. Less selling teams will lead to less players moved and weaker playoff teams. The only teams benefiting in this scenario are the basement teams that were out of contention a long time ago. Opposite effect than was intended. It might not always be this close but year 1 of the new rule is not going well.

 

Does this help the offseason market if teams projected to finish in the middle might not have the option to sell later because they could find themselves in the weird spot the Giants/Rangers/Dbacks are in where odds are they don't make the playoffs but it would look really bad if they sold? I think more teams go the Houston or Cubs route where you sit way back and slowly build a super team. I don't think one deadline is going to convince small to mid market teams to do more buying in free agency.

 

Does this help the players? Madison Bumgarner will probably not get traded, will probably not pitch in the playoffs, will probably make less money next season because he has a draft pick attached to him via qualifying offer.

[strumdatjaguar]

Too many buyers and too few sellers at this time.   That means the Twins and others will be smart to wait to see if any more teams join the "sellers" category.   Otherwise, the smart thing is not to sell the farm for an above average pitcher.  Maybe the Twins can find a "surprise" pitcher who can half-emulate Arraez - Maybe Stashak or Thorpe for example (last outings looked very good).    If the price is too high the Falvine motto should be: Don';t just do something, STAND THERE!

[jud6312]

Ah yes, the old do nothing approach. Works like a charm.

[jud6312]

http://gentlemint.com/media/images/2012/04/18/6745f59b.jpg.505x650_q85.jpg

[nicksaviking]

I actually would really like to see Harvey in the pen, I think there's lots of potential for a second career in that capacity.

 

But that might be more of a early 2020 trial than a cross-your-fingers midseason during a playoff chase move.

[railmarshalljon]

 

My deadline thoughts using the Falvy approach - Trade for Roenis Elias and Ian Kennedy as good "supplements" to the bullpen core.Cody Stashak stays, Lewis Thorpe stays as the long man/6th starter/2nd LH, both for now. Kohl Stewart goes back down. Blake Parker is traded or DFA'd. Stashak, Thorpe, Duffy and Littel become the "swing" guys for the last 2 bullpen spots, injuries or when/if we need to go to an 8 man bullpen and are on the Rochester express.New Bullpen:

 

Rogers

May

Elias

Kennedy

Harper

2 (or 3) of the following, fluid depending on usage, part of Rochester express - Stashak, Thorpe, Duffy, Littel.

 

I prefer a 7 man bullpen because I like having Arreaz on the roster and there's no place for him if we have a 3 man bench unless we want to get rid of Schoop or Adrianza. As it is, he'll have a hard time staying on the 25 man when both Buxton and Cron are back with a 3 man bench/ 8 man bullpen and we may need an 8 man bullpen because 3 or 4 of our starters can't go more than 6 innings. Cave goes down for Buxton, but who goes down for Cron? When those two are back, we have Castro, Gonzalez, and Adrianza on the bench. I have a feeling that the trade deadline may shed some light on this but I have no idea what that light will be.

 

My other trade/prediction - Schoop goes to create an opening for Arreaz and an 8 man bullpen. Otherwise, Arreaz kind of has to join the Rochester express with the relief pitchers as we go back and forth between an 8 and 7 man pen. 

 

One thing you're not calculating in is people getting injured in the future. I think for that reason alone, Arraez is likely to stay for longer than you think. Unless a catcher gets hurt and that creates a different problem. So we'll see.

[jorgenswest]

Ah yes, the old do nothing approach. Works like a charm.

I assume you join me in the significantly overpay group to ensure a better return than the Astros or Yankees.

 

The alternative is to be patient and wait out a more reasonable deal risking losing that deal to a competitor.

[jud6312]

 

I assume you join me in the significantly overpay group to ensure a better return than the Astros or Yankees.

The alternative is to be patient and wait out a more reasonable deal risking losing that deal to a competitor.

 

I would definitely rather pay more now to get what I really want, rather than waiting for a sale or whatever happens to be left.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Hey now, Cubs sent Addison Russell to AAA and are looking for a 2B. Hmmmmm, don't we have 2 of those?

Sure, if you count Arraez as 1.25 of them.

 

I kid, I kid.

 

Or do I?

[nicksaviking]

 

Hey now, Cubs sent Addison Russell to AAA and are looking for a 2B. Hmmmmm, don't we have 2 of those?

 

They are leading their division and have pitching issues of their own. I don't see them trading a useful arm to the Twins even if they actually had one.

 

The Cubs best reliever is Brandon Kintzler by the way.

[J_Dobs]

 

My deadline thoughts using the Falvy approach - Trade for Roenis Elias and Ian Kennedy as good "supplements" to the bullpen core.

 

With hearing all the talks about the prices of the controllable relievers, or even the same fact for Smith. I have tempered my expectations a bit and had this exact thought on who I would target! Kennedy is really have a under the radar year. Elias looks like the missing LOOGY piece we need.

I dream that we could get one now, just to free up the phones in case the price does comes down on the other elite arms as every claims "will happen".

[nicksaviking]

 

With hearing all the talks about the prices of the controllable relievers, or even the same fact for Smith. I have tempered my expectations a bit and had this exact thought on who I would target! Kennedy is really have a under the radar year. Elias looks like the missing LOOGY piece we need.

I dream that we could get one now, just to free up the phones in case the price does comes down on the other elite arms as every claims "will happen".

 

I like both Kennedy and Elias, but I don't want a LOOGY, I want more guys who can go multiple innings, not just one batter. Elias has reverse splits this year anyway and doesn't appear to have ever had significant issues dealing with either handed batter.

[Darius]

Falvey, I’m sure as a result of the considerable and deserved backlash for their gross mishandling of the bullpen, spoke in regards to the Twins plan at the deadline today.

 

IMO, reading between the lines of purposefully convoluted GM speak, he’s basically saying don’t expect any high-end arms. They’re going after depth, and the current roster is good enough to propel this team to where they want to go.

 

This approach, as a lifelong Twins fan in his 30s, has gotten so exhausting. How much fun can it possibly be when we know this is over already? Without supplementing this roster with trades/free agents, we stand no chance.

 

I wonder if the Brewers have comparable season ticket packages and prices. At least they aren’t scared to go after it.

 

I’m really tired of griping on here. But this inaction is infuriating. We have a Workd Series lineup and solid starting pitching that will be largely disbanded after this season. We have a real shot at a title. It’s dissolving in front of our eyes. The most frustrating part to me is that ownership is making a killing this year. I’d understand if the place was still empty.

 

At least the Vikings, maybe the only team in the State that has ownership willing to take a risk to win, start soon.

[Tom Froemming]

This may seem impossible, but since the All-Star break, the Brewers, Red Sox and Braves all have worse bullpen ERAs than the Twins do. You made some compelling arguments for why things have been so quiet, Seth, but I am still really surprised nothing is happening. Anywhere. 

 

With teams like Texas, San Diego, Colorado and Pittsburgh having hit some rough slumps, it feels like the group of sellers is becoming more clear. Not sure I get why the reeeealy bad teams have held so long, seems like a poor strategy, but it's very difficult to speculate on that. 

 

Definitely feels like there are a few more potential sellers and a few less potential buyers than there were just a couple weeks ago.

[redstorm]

The Twins can never be on the right side of things, the one year it's a sellers market and they are buyers (not that I'm complaining about their success, far from it).

But it would be nice to get a Pressly-type for a couple of our prospects in the 15-20 range this year instead of giving up a top 5 prospect for Greg Holland or Mychal Givens...

Edited July 24, 2019 by redstorm

[nicksaviking]

 

This may seem impossible, but since the All-Star break, the Brewers, Red Sox and Braves all have worse bullpen ERAs than the Twins do. You made some compelling arguments for why things have been so quiet, Seth, but I am still really surprised nothing is happening. Anywhere. 

 

With teams like Texas, San Diego, Colorado and Pittsburgh having hit some rough slumps, it feels like the group of sellers is becoming more clear. Not sure I get why the reeeealy bad teams have held so long, seems like a poor strategy, but it's very difficult to speculate on that. 

 

Definitely feels like there are a few more potential sellers and a few less potential buyers than there were just a couple weeks ago.

 

Yeah, bullpens league-wide seem to really be struggling, which doesn't seem right after it seemed the Royals loaded bullpen strategy from five years back caught on like wildfire. It seemed like most teams attempted to stockpile stud relievers. There's still a few good pens, but so many of those stockpiled arms are no longer pitching well.

 

Doesn't mean I won't expect the Twins to go out and become one of the few teams that have a pen that can hold a lead though.

[Eephus]

Homer Bailey...wasn't he George Bailey's little brother? Would have died if George hadn't been there to save him.

[mlhouse]

WHile some that know me may think this is contrary to my position, I believe the Twins should trade whatever minor league prospects it takes to get Mike Minor.

 

I would trade one of Lewis/Kiriloff, one of Trevor Larnach/Brent Rooker and their choice of minor league pitcher.   

 

Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves, and a few other players might be available to add if that is what it takes to make the deal.  

 

A pitcher still under team control for 2020 is worth it and the Twins should jump at the chance.

[Thrylos]

It is still too early and teams have their prices too high as far as buyers go and too low as far as sellers go.  When time gets closer to the deadline people are going to start sweating things will happen.

 

Right now is like playing chicken going 5 mph against each other.  The speedometer will start increasing closer to the deadline, so someone will have to give up.  Or not.  Esp. as far as rentals go.

[Vanimal46]

 

For 3 pitchers who can assist in 2019 I'd be open to trading just about anyone in the minors *within reason*

[diehardtwinsfan]

Here's an interesting one:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/yankees-trade-catcher-twins-brian-navarreto.html

 

Not that Navarreto has much of a chance at breaking the bigs… 

[nater79a]

 

 

What does this equate to as far as Twins prospects?

 

 

[nater79a]

Trevor Larnach apparently on other teams radar....

 

[jorgenswest]

 

What does this equate to as far as Twins prospects?

 

 

https://twitter.com/MarcCarig/status/1154497099184128002

I think they can get it done offering the Mets their choice of 1 position player and 1 pitcher (excluding key major leaguers)

 

If nothing else it would force the Astros to offer Whitley and Tucker to win the deal. If they can’t have Syndergaard it least it will cause some pain to the Astros.