Article: What Will It Take to Acquire Marcus Stroman?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Could be, but I could see preferring Stroman, especially at a lower arb salary than Bauer. Not to mention, "a bird in the hand" and all that -- might be worth a little premium now to lock in one rather than hope the other is still around later. Who knows, maybe the Mets already know Cleveland wouldn't take these two prospects for Bauer.

Definitely possible and frankly, I like what the Mets gave for Stroman. I just don't like what the Mets are thinking right now, and it seems most of baseball agrees.

 

But also, why didn't the Twins offer a comparable package?

[old nurse]

 

Definitely possible and frankly, I like what the Mets gave for Stroman. I just don't like what the Mets are thinking right now, and it seems most of baseball agrees.

 

But also, why didn't the Twins offer a comparable package?

Trades are weird when they involve prospects.What is comperable value in Toronto's mind?  The view on prospects is different enough from evaluation group to another the further down from the top you get.  Would you give up the 3 and 6 from the TD poll of prospects for Stroman (Graterol and Balazovic)? So the choice becomes one of many choices. It could be there is  something the Blue Jays see in these prospects that others are not. Equally possible is that  Ross Atkins get the "Bill Smith Bad Trade" traveling trophy from Neak Hunnington. The answer will not be known for years.

There is this to consider.  If Van Wagenen can get somebody to pay more for Stroman, he is ahead. If he gets someone to pay way more for Thor, he is ahead. If he can now get something of value for Wheeler, he may be ahead.

Edited July 29, 2019 by old nurse

[TFRazor]

So yeah, hiring an agent to run your FO seems like a genius level move. We should look into it.

[Vanimal46]

That was an underwhelming return for Stroman... An offer the Twins could have easily beat. Doesn't make me hopeful that an impact trade is on the horizon.

[Mr. Brooks]

That was an underwhelming return for Stroman... An offer the Twins could have easily beat. Doesn't make me hopeful that an impact trade is on the horizon.

Just out of curiosity, what would be your offer that would easily beat it?

[Vanimal46]

Just out of curiosity, what would be your offer that would easily beat it?

If Toronto wants pitching probably Duran and Thorpe.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If Toronto wants pitching probably Duran and Thorpe.

It could be competitive but I don't know about "easily beat". Fangraphs has these two at 50 and 40 FV, while both of the Mets guys were 45 FV. MLB Pipeline seems to grade higher, and has them all at 50.

 

(Another factor could be that Thorpe is on the 40-man right now and Duran will need to be added this winter. The older of the Mets guys will need to be added this winter, while the younger one won't be Rule 5 eligible until after the 2022 season. Again, not a deal-breaker or anything, but it could be a factor.)

[Vanimal46]

It could be competitive but I don't know about "easily beat". Fangraphs has these two at 50 and 40 FV, while both of the Mets guys were 45 FV. MLB Pipeline seems to grade higher, and has them all at 50.

 

(Another factor could be that Thorpe is on the 40-man right now and Duran will need to be added this winter. The older of the Mets guys will need to be added this winter, while the younger one won't be Rule 5 eligible until after the 2022 season. Again, not a deal-breaker or anything, but it could be a factor.)

I threw out those names with the assumption the Mets wanted near ready MLB pitching prospects. If they prefer keeping players off the 40 for a couple of years, we all know the team is littered with those guys too... Enlow, Colina, Alcala, Canterino, etc.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I threw out those names with the assumption the Mets wanted near ready MLB pitching prospects. If they prefer keeping players off the 40 for a couple of years, we all know the team is littered with those guys too... Enlow, Colina, Alcala, Canterino, etc.

And those guys are all rated at 40 FV or lower at Fangraphs, below the two Mets guys.

 

Obviously we don't exactly how the Jays view all of these guys, but it's not clear-cut that we could have easily beat it.

[Vanimal46]

And those guys are all rated at 40 FV or lower at Fangraphs, below the two Mets guys.

 

Obviously we don't exactly how the Jays view all of these guys, but it's not clear-cut that we could have easily beat it.

A top 10 MLB farm system can't easily beat out 2 45 FV prospects in a bottom 10 farm system. Got it.

[nicksaviking]

 

A top 10 MLB farm system can't easily beat out 2 45 FV prospects in a bottom 10 farm system. Got it.

 

Was it a competition this team really wanted to win? Seems like half of the posters her are luke warm on him at best.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Was it a competition this team really wanted to win? Seems like half of the posters her are luke warm on him at best.

There are reasons not to love Stroman, lots of them. I’d still take him, though.

 

But given how the front office seemed so lukewarm on him given their reported interest, there’s probably something they don’t like about him (also notice the Astros appeared to have no interest as well, not a great sign).

[Vanimal46]

Was it a competition this team really wanted to win? Seems like half of the posters her are luke warm on him at best.

So.... Status quo in TD Land? We could acquire Mike Trout and half of the members would be lukewarm about the prospects given up to acquire him.

Edited July 29, 2019 by Vanimal46

[drivlikejehu]

Any time the Mets value someone the highest, that tells you something. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A top 10 MLB farm system can't easily beat out 2 45 FV prospects in a bottom 10 farm system. Got it.

I mean, we certainly could have beat it. If not Balazovic and Duran, then Graterol plus one of those two,  I would think those offers could have topped the Mets. (Not to mention, Lewis or Kirilloff could do it too!) The question is, do you want to beat it by offering that much? I'm not sure, for Stroman. Especially if those prospects could be part of a Syndergaard deal instead.

 

Now, maybe a Syndergaard deal is a long shot at best and we should have grabbed Stroman instead. It's worthy of debate. Hopefully the next few days give us some more data.

[nicksaviking]

 

There are reasons not to love Stroman, lots of them. I’d still take him, though.

But given how the front office seemed so lukewarm on him given their reported interest, there’s probably something they don’t like about him (also notice the Astros appeared to have no interest as well, not a great sign).

 

The Astros also got Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton and Wade Miley to drop or reduce their 2 seamer usage, and appeared to have no interest in reuniting with Dallas Keuchel. 

 

My theory has been that the Twins don't like their starters using that pitch very much and it wouldn't surprise me if they've been taking their queues from Houston.

[Mr. Brooks]

A top 10 MLB farm system can't easily beat out 2 45 FV prospects in a bottom 10 farm system. Got it.

Of course they could beat it.

My point was to illustrate that in order to "easily" beat it, as you suggested, would almost certainly require sending Graterol or Balazovic, or even both, depending on how much value the Jays place on proximity to the majors.

I'm ok moving one of those guys, but I'd prefer we aim a little higher than Stroman if we do.

 

The Twins aren't going to gut their system, no matter how much some posters may want them to. Which means any deal involving one of their "big 3" (Lewis/Kirilloff/Graterol), is likely to be the only big time player acquired.

 

If the deadline passes with nobody better than Romo acquired, I'll be right there with you questioning why they didn't try to top the Mets for Stroman.

But if they passed because they know they only plan on firing one bullet from their big 3, and that 1 bullet is for a player they like more than Stroman, then I totally get it.

[Vanimal46]

Of course they could beat it.

My point was to illustrate that in order to "easily" beat it, as you suggested, would almost certainly require sending Graterol or Balazovic, or even both, depending on how much value the Jays place on proximity to the majors.

I'm ok moving one of those guys, but I'd prefer we aim a little higher than Stroman if we do.

 

The Twins aren't going to gut their system, no matter how much some posters may want them to. Which means any deal involving one of their "big 3" (Lewis/Kirilloff/Graterol), is likely to be the only big time player acquired.

 

If the deadline passes with nobody better than Romo acquired, I'll be right there with you questioning why they didn't try to top the Mets for Stroman.

But if they passed because they know they only plan on firing one bullet from their big 3, and that 1 bullet is for a player they like more than Stroman, then I totally get it.

Maybe it's just me, but I have a higher value placed on Duran, a 21 year recently promoted to AA, over a 24 year old who's struggling in AAA and an 18 year old rookie ball pitcher. It didn't require Balazovic or Graterol to easily beat this deal.

 

I first mentioned Duran and Thorpe. If they wanted someone further away from 40 man consideration substitute Thorpe for Enlow, Leach, Berroa, Sands, etc.

[AZTwin]

Maybe it's just me, but I have a higher value placed on Duran, a 21 year recently promoted to AA, over a 24 year old who's struggling in AAA and an 18 year old rookie ball pitcher. It didn't require Balazovic or Graterol to easily beat this deal.

 

I first mentioned Duran and Thorpe. If they wanted someone further away from 40 man consideration substitute Thorpe for Enlow, Leach, Berroa, Sands, etc.

Yeah even if you said Duran or Thorpe weren’t clearly better offer, you could easily throw in a guy like Jax, Luke Raley, Jaylin Davis or even Blankenhorn and it would easily beat it without including the top guys. Hell I think Duran by himself is better than the other 2 prospects

[Mr. Brooks]

Maybe it's just me, but I have a higher value placed on Duran, a 21 year recently promoted to AA, over a 24 year old who's struggling in AAA and an 18 year old rookie ball pitcher. It didn't require Balazovic or Graterol to easily beat this deal.

 

I first mentioned Duran and Thorpe. If they wanted someone further away from 40 man consideration substitute Thorpe for Enlow, Leach, Berroa, Sands, etc.

People who actually get paid to evaluate these prospects grade Duran as equal or lesser than the AAA pitcher that the Mets sent.

So, no that doesn't "easily" beat it. It may very well have, we don't know how the Jays have these guys graded.

 

The only pitching prospect we have who objectively, definitively grades out better, according to professional publications, not a poster's amateur opinion, is Graterol.

[dougd]

Duran got an exciting review today by BPro's Prospect staff. The first sentence: "You won’t find many pitchers jump in prospect rankings as much as 6-foot-5 right hander Jhoan Duran will this offseason."

 

The last sentence: The athletic body, the mound presence, how he attacks the zone, and the nasty repertoire all combined looks like a No. 2 starter, or better. – Keanan Lamb

[AZTwin]

People who actually get paid to evaluate these prospects grade Duran as equal or lesser than the AAA pitcher that the Mets sent.

So, no that doesn't "easily" beat it. It may very well have, we don't know how the Jays have these guys graded.

 

The only pitching prospect we have who objectively, definitively grades out better, according to professional publications, not a poster's amateur opinion, is Graterol.

GMs aren’t stupid. They can easily see a difference between a soon to be 25 year old soft-tossing pitcher trending in the wrong direction and a rising 21 year old pitcher with an electric fastball. I really doubt most GMs would rate the Mets player above Duran

[yarnivek1972]

GMs aren’t stupid. They can easily see a difference between a soon to be 25 year old soft-tossing pitcher trending in the wrong direction and a rising 21 year old pitcher with an electric fastball. I really doubt most GMs would rate the Mets player above Duran

Well, most GMs rely pretty heavily on professional scouts. Like, just as an example, the professional scouts that do these rankings.

Edited July 29, 2019 by yarnivek1972

[Mr. Brooks]

GMs aren’t stupid. They can easily see a difference between a soon to be 25 year old soft-tossing pitcher trending in the wrong direction and a rising 21 year old pitcher with an electric fastball. I really doubt most GMs would rate the Mets player above Duran

Ah, so it's just all the professional scouts at MLB Pipeline and Fangraphs that are stupid.

 

Good thing we have posters in here that have scouted these guys much more extensively.

 

Also, when did mid 90's plus fastballs, to go with a plus curve and plus change become "soft tossers"?

[AZTwin]

Ah, so it's just all the professional scouts at MLB Pipeline and Fangraphs that are stupid.

 

Good thing we have posters in here that have scouted these guys much more extensively.

 

Also, when did mid 90's plus fastballs, to go with a plus curve and plus change become "soft tossers"?

If you really are reading into a mid season ranking you are a fool. Look again in the off-season. This isn’t THAT hard. You remind me of the people praising De Leon purely because of his ranking and not looking at the facts. I guarantee that less than 10% of professional scouts would rate Duran below either of those two as of this point in time. Btw that guy isn’t mid 90s, he sits around 92-94 Edited July 29, 2019 by AZTwin

[USAFChief]

Ah, so it's just all the professional scouts at MLB Pipeline and Fangraphs that are stupid.

 

Good thing we have posters in here that have scouted these guys much more extensively.

 

Also, when did mid 90's plus fastballs, to go with a plus curve and plus change become "soft tossers"?

which professional scouts do the Fangraphs ratings, again?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Maybe it's just me, but I have a higher value placed on Duran, a 21 year recently promoted to AA, over a 24 year old who's struggling in AAA and an 18 year old rookie ball pitcher.

The 18 year old has been in A ball all season, not rookie leagues. Maybe he's the next Deolis Guerra.

[Mr. Brooks]

which professional scouts do the Fangraphs ratings, again?

If they do it as their primary source of income, then they are professionals.

 

Either way, they are much more plugged in than posters here who are literally just scouting stat lines.

 

Kay has really good stuff. He's a legit good prospect.

But hey, for some posters it fits their narrative to pretend like he's not a good prospect.

[AZTwin]

If they do it as their primary source of income, then they are professionals.

 

Either way, they are much more plugged in than posters here who are literally just scouting stat lines.

 

Kay has really good stuff. He's a legit good prospect.

But hey, for some posters it fits their narrative to pretend like he's not a good prospect.

Look again in the off-season. Something will suddenly be different with “only 1 more month of data”. Of course you will claim something actually changed in that time

[Mr. Brooks]

Look again in the off-season. Something will suddenly be different with “only 1 more month of data”. Of course you will claim something actually changed in that time