Noah Syndergaard

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 3:13 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

Interesting. Would you make that deal? Much as I like both Lewis and Kiriloff, Kiriloff especially, I'd be very tempted to pull the trigger on Syndegaard and Lugo for Lewis and Kiriloff. I'd throw in 2 decent prospects like Gordon and Smeltzer or Poppen (not Thorpe) if they would add Diaz. 

I'm not sure. Two position player prospects for a pitcher is risky, especially looking at Syndergaard's dropping K% from afar. And even if our experts think they can get him back on track, can they do it in time for the 2019 postseason? The 2020-2021 control is good, but the potential 2019 benefit is a big part of paying a premium here.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 3:21 PM, gunnarthor said:

I was going to say the exact same thing.

I was going to say the exact same thing too.

 

[dbminn]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 3:03 PM, spycake said:

I don't think that works. Even if the Mets like Sano at 3B, he's only got 2 years of control left. (Yes, so does Syndergaard, but the idea behind a Syndergaard trade would be to get an elite player controlled beyond 2 years, not just do an exchange.)

 

I know baseballtradevalues.com isn't gospel and is certainly open to debate, but the spread of this trade might be too wide to ignore: 147.8 from the Mets, 44.4 from the Twins.

 

By the time you could tweak this proposal to make it work, it's probably no longer worth it for the Twins to sacrifice Sano anymore either. Especially if he's good enough that the Mets would want him!

 

I like baseball trade values but their data doesn't reflect who is rising. 

 

The biggest issue is Sano's value. At present, the site has him as worth at little more than 3 WAR total over the next 2.5 years ($28M gross value, $9M/WAR, 3% inflation rate). He's just put up 1.5 WAR in 200 PA while making swing adjustments. OTOH, they have Syndergaard at 5 WAR per year ($109M gross value). He's had one year better than that - 5.9 WAR in 2016. He's on track for a 4 WAR season. Neither player has been fully healthy.

 

I don't think these estimates are reasonable.

[nicksaviking]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 3:10 PM, big dog said:

The seven compensation picks after Mike Trout were:

Eric Arnett

Nick Franklin

Reymond Fuentes

Slade Heathcott

LeVon Washington

Brett Jackson

Tim Wheeler

 

So that would have been a bad trade even if we had gotten all seven.

 

That's not fair.

 

There were plenty of draft busts that went after those guys that the Twins might have chosen instead.

[GCTF]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 2:57 PM, USAFChief said:

Think of the TD threads we missed!!

No need, the BYTO threads were fantastic. Which, of course, led to Johan's new word filter that would only appear as stars on this site.

[dbminn]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 3:16 PM, SwainZag said:

Sano just has too much upside for me to trade him at age 26.  Stick to prospects.  Cruz is 39, Cron has 1 year left, Schoop is gone after this year.  The HR power to spare shouldn't only be for this year.  Sano should be an offensive core piece with Buck, Kepler, Polanco and Rosario if they choose to extend him.  Just my two cents.

 

Totally valid opinion. I'd be happy with that. 

[dex8425]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 3:38 PM, dbminn said:

I like baseball trade values but their data doesn't reflect who is rising. 

 

The biggest issue is Sano's value. At present, the site has him as worth at little more than 3 WAR total over the next 2.5 years ($28M gross value, $9M/WAR, 3% inflation rate). He's just put up 1.5 WAR in 200 PA while making swing adjustments. OTOH, they have Syndergaard at 5 WAR per year ($109M gross value). He's had one year better than that - 5.9 WAR in 2016. He's on track for a 4 WAR season. Neither player has been fully healthy.

 

I don't think these estimates are reasonable.

Agreed. The value on there for Thor is too high. I don't see him as multiple levels better than Boyd or Stroman, which is what BTV is doing. 

[dbminn]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 3:45 PM, dex8425 said:

Agreed. The value on there for Thor is too high. I don't see him as multiple levels better than Boyd or Stroman, which is what BTV is doing. 

 

And Sano is too low. BTV shows Sano is worth a half-year of Gibson and Nick Gordon.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 3:38 PM, dbminn said:

I like baseball trade values but their data doesn't reflect who is rising. 

 

The biggest issue is Sano's value. At present, the site has him as worth at little more than 3 WAR total over the next 2.5 years ($28M gross value, $9M/WAR, 3% inflation rate). He's just put up 1.5 WAR in 200 PA while making swing adjustments. OTOH, they have Syndergaard at 5 WAR per year ($109M gross value). He's had one year better than that - 5.9 WAR in 2016. He's on track for a 4 WAR season. Neither player has been fully healthy.

 

I don't think their estimates are reasonable.

Sano is still striking out in 37.5% of his PA in 2019.

 

Per 600 PA, Sano has averaged about 2.4 fWAR per 600 PA. Even neutralizing defense and position, it's only 3.0 WAR per 600 PA.

 

His "rising" is a nice HR binge, which has value (up to 4.1 fWAR per 600 PA at his 2019 rates), but it's not really comparable value to a once and potential future ace, is it?

 

Syndergaard has averaged 5.0 fWAR per 31 starts in his career. Even in his "down" year of 2019, he's accumulating fWAR on par with Sano's "rising" 2019 -- 4.2 pace.

 

And in terms of health, Syndergaard's missed time is mostly concentrated in one season (2017). Sano hasn't managed a full season since 2015. That's going to affect projections.

 

Furthermore, there are still real questions about Sano at 3B -- especially on an NL team (no DH spot available) with 1B blocked.

 

If Sano had 4+ years of control, maybe I could squint and see it. But at 2 years of control, I can't see why the Mets would be interested in this exchange, without significant other pieces (on the level of Lewis or Kirilloff).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Sano is valuable, but so darn streaky.

 

Keep in mind, the latest Yankee series notwithstanding, Sano could be vulnerable to a postseason-caliber pitching against him (as opposed to just “get ahead, attack the zone” strategy that we see from the Detroit-type teams in the regular season). Sano can be pitched to, and the front office left him off the roster against the Yankees in the wild card in 2017.

 

I like Sano and I think his teammates do too. Would be hard to trade a piece like that right now. I think the Mets would happily take him in a Syndergaard package. It would be quite a gutsy call.

[SwainZag]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 4:04 PM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Sano is valuable, but so darn streaky.

Keep in mind, the latest Yankee series notwithstanding, Sano could be vulnerable to a postseason-caliber pitching against him (as opposed to just “get ahead, attack the zone” strategy that we see from the Detroit-type teams in the regular season). Sano can be pitched to, and the front office left him off the roster against the Yankees in the wild card in 2017.

I like Sano and I think his teammates do too. Would be hard to trade a piece like that right now. I think the Mets would happily take him in a Syndergaard package. It would be quite a gutsy call.

 

He was fresh coming off injury in 2017 and had started 2 games since coming off the DL.  I would assume that's why he was left off the roster for that game, not because the Twins feared he couldn't hit Yankee pitching.  

[dbminn]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 4:01 PM, spycake said:

Sano is still striking out in 37.5% of his PA in 2019.

 

Per 600 PA, Sano has averaged about 2.4 fWAR per 600 PA. Even neutralizing defense and position, it's only 3.0 WAR per 600 PA.

 

His "rising" is a nice HR binge, which has value (up to 4.1 fWAR per 600 PA at his 2019 rates), but it's not really comparable value to a once and potential future ace, is it?

 

Syndergaard has averaged 5.0 fWAR per 31 starts in his career. Even in his "down" year of 2019, he's accumulating fWAR on par with Sano's "rising" 2019 -- 4.2 pace.

 

And in terms of health, Syndergaard's missed time is mostly concentrated in one season (2017). Sano hasn't managed a full season since 2015. That's going to affect projections.

 

Furthermore, there are still real questions about Sano at 3B -- especially on an NL team (no DH spot available) with 1B blocked.

 

If Sano had 4+ years of control, maybe I could squint and see it. But at 2 years of control, I can't see why the Mets would be interested in this exchange, without significant other pieces (on the level of Lewis or Kirilloff).

 

Yes, Sano is on an equal pace with Syndergaard this year. And he's averaged 33 HR/600 PA to this point, if we're ignoring injuries with Thor. The gap between them is nowhere near $90M in trade value any place, any time.

 

I'll add Larnach or Kirilloff in place of Jeffers and my suggested addition of Colina and still make the trade. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 3:45 PM, dex8425 said:

Agreed. The value on there for Thor is too high. I don't see him as multiple levels better than Boyd or Stroman, which is what BTV is doing. 

 

I could see an argument that Syndergaard is too high there, but I do think he should be way ahead of Boyd or Stroman.

 

Stroman's career high is 3.5 fWAR so far (which is interestingly his career rate per 31 starts too). Syndergaard's high is 5.9 fWAR, with 5.0 per 31 starts, and an extra year of control over Stroman. Stroman's been more inconsistent in terms of RA9-WAR too (using actual runs allowed instead of FIP).

 

Boyd is on pace for 4.9 fWAR this year, but only 3.8 RA9-WAR, and he has virtually no track record of success prior to 2019. Yes, he has an extra year of control over Syndergaard, but who knows what you will get from him then (especially at age 31).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

  On 7/26/2019 at 4:11 PM, SwainZag said:

He was fresh coming off injury in 2017 and had started 2 games since coming off the DL.  I would assume that's why he was left off the roster for that game, not because the Twins feared he couldn't hit Yankee pitching.

 

Yeah I was trying to remember exactly what the mood was surrounding that decision. Sano was injured but healthy again, but I also recalled him being in one of his strikeout funks. Could be wrong.

[gunnarthor]

Twins have an amazing core of position players - Cron, Arreaz/Schoop*, Polanco, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler and Garver should be our starting lineup for most of this year and next and I think Cruz will be at DH next year, too. None of that offensive core should be traded until the Twins have someone that can replace them up and ready, not just hoping. I suspect we'll trade Rosario when Kiriloff is ready but he's not ready. 

 

*Schoop won't be back next year.

 

We have some strong trade pieces in the minors, that's what we should be using. Even guys like Gordon and Duran - not on top 100 lists - have solid value in a trade now. 

[scottz]

We aren't trading Sano. He's a major threat in the lineup (when he makes contact) and appears to be beloved by his teammates. I don't think we're subtracting from anywhere on the 25. For that matter, I think the only player on the 40 that is a true trade asset is Gordon, and the only reason he's available is because Arraez is a player.

Our top 30 list of prospects is excellent, and we can absolutely get Syndergaard for prospects. I don't think it would be Lewis and Kiriloff, but if the Mets insist, I think I'd do that, but with nobody else. I think more likely is one of those two, and 3 others including guys like Balazovic or Larnach or others we keep close eyes on. It'll hurt either way, but it would be worth it, especially if they also add another bullpen arm instead of working the Rochester shuttle. We need more pitching to compete down the stretch and in the playoffs.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 4:13 PM, dbminn said:

Yes, Sano is on an equal pace with Syndergaard this year. And he's averaged 33 HR/600 PA to this point, if we're ignoring injuries with Thor. The gap between them is nowhere near $90M in trade value any place, any time.

Sano's HR/FB rate this year is 34.0%. You really want to count on that going forward as real, projectable improvement?

 

And even with that, it only gets him *equal* in fWAR rate to Syndergaard's *worst* season so far.

 

You might be right that the gap is too wide, but it should still be very, very wide.

 

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 4:13 PM, dbminn said:

I'll add Larnach or Kirilloff in place of Jeffers and my suggested addition of Colina and still make the trade. 

Kirilloff would definitely get you closer, and is a better reflection of their relative values. But once you include Kirilloff (or perhaps Lewis), like another poster said, that gets you close enough to Syndergaard that it doesn't make much sense for the Twins to also subtract from our current 25-man (Sano) just to add a reliever (or two) to this deal.

[HawksNest]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 1:53 PM, SomeGuy said:

Whats up with his slider? He is throwing it half as often as he used to (From over 20% 3 years in a row down to 12%) and it is getting lit up. Fastball velocity is right in line with career but slider is down 3-4 MPH compared to last 2 years.

 

Velocity

2015 88.58

2016 91.51

2017 93.15

2018 92.54

2019 89.19

 

Slugging against

2015 .095

2016 .229

2017 .174

2018 .233

2019 .493

 

Isolated Power

2015 .000

2016 .064

2017 .000

2018 .030

2019 .254

 

Dang, those slider velocities....my goodness

[dbminn]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 4:26 PM, spycake said:

Sano's HR/FB rate this year is 34.0%. You really want to count on that going forward as real, projectable improvement?

 

And even with that, it only gets him *equal* in fWAR rate to Syndergaard's *worst* season so far.

 

You might be right that the gap is too wide, but it should still be very, very wide.

 

 

Kirilloff would definitely get you closer, and is a better reflection of their relative values. But once you include Kirilloff (or perhaps Lewis), like another poster said, that gets you close enough to Syndergaard that it doesn't make much sense for the Twins to also subtract from our current 25-man (Sano) just to add a reliever (or two) to this deal.

 

Yeah, two RP wouldn't mean much at this point.

[howeda7]

I'd do Kirilof, Balazovic, Duran for just Syndergaard.

 

Then go get Ian Kennedy for a lower price (Gordon) and find a Loogy for a spare change.

[Tomj14]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 4:04 PM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I like Sano and I think his teammates do too. Would be hard to trade a piece like that right now. I think the Mets would happily take him in a Syndergaard package. It would be quite a gutsy call.

Agreed, it does seem like his teammates really like him, and that could really piss them off.

[howeda7]

Regarding trading Sano, I've been in favor of it, and I'm still not opposed because his defense is so brutal. However, if you're "going for it" I don't think you can trade one of your key offensive players without upsetting the clubhouse. I'd wait and trade him in the off-season.

 

In 2001, the Twins "went for it" by trading Matt Lawton for Rick Reed, because Terry Ryan could never part with precious, precious prospects. I don't think that went over very well.

[jkcarew]

I'd part with Lewis in a deal for Syndergaard. Absolutely. Kirilloff is the one I'd have second thoughts with. I think two-three years from now, we'll want/need another thumper given Cruz's age, Cron's contract, etc, uncertainty regarding Sano/Rosario extensions. If more scouts/analysts seemed convinced regarding Lewis offensively, I'd feel differently.

[Tomj14]

 

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 4:34 PM, howeda7 said:

I'd do Kirilof, Balazovic, Duran for just Syndergaard.

 

Then go get Ian Kennedy for a lower price (Gordon) and find a Loogy for a spare change.

I think two of those three are going to be special, not sure which two because well they are prospects, but I would do that trade and tell Wes Johnson not to screw this up (I would rather include Graterol as one of the pitchers, but would still do it)

not as big of fan on the second, but only because KC is in the Division, and completely agree with the third.

[JW24]

Sorry if I have missed this somewhere in this rapidly growing discussion, but what would an extension for Syndergaard look like, and how would that impact who the Twins are willing to trade?

 

Rosario, Buxton and Berrios are all in line for significant raises in the next couple years. I don't know if the Twins ownership will commit the money it would take to re-sign all 3 and extend Syndergaard should the Twins trade for him.

 

I get that this is a "figure it out when we get to this point" type of question, but I think it needs to be asked. If the price is the Twins top two prospects, plus some additional, that is a substantial price tag for a guy who might walk in 2 years.

[South Dakota Tom]

This trade is going to hurt, no doubt.  I think, however, if you are going to pry Thor from the Mets, you have to make it sweet and there is no low-ball alternative.  My sense is that it is going to take Lewis, plus maybe an Alcala or Duran or Enlow as the top two in the return.

 

But I'd do it.  Kiriloff is necessary to take over LF if Rosario leaves (which I think he will).  With Polanco and Arraez (plus Gordon and Javier) I think middle infield is covered. 

 

My second pickup is Alex Wood (FA after the season); don't know what that would take, but wouldn't require anything in our top 10, even if it took a couple of prospects outside the top 10.  We would march into the playoffs with Berrios, Thor, Gibson, Odorizzi and Wood; Pineda and Perez to the BP. 

 

I would try to resign Pineda, give Gibson a QO, and try very hard for a 3-year deal with Wood.  Next year, it is the same lineup on the offensive end (Arraez is already replacing Schoop) and Astudillo takes over for Castro.  The BP takes care of itself with the arms we have, as I'm not a fan of trading prospects for relief.  Most of our prospect pool remains intact (other than the cherry on top), and the hope is that Graterol can slide into the rotation by mid-season, and we're rolling with Snydergaard, Berrios, Wood, Gibson/Perez, and Graterol next season, while maintaining a fluid bullpen that can continue to rotate 10-12 arms because there are very few long-term commits and options remaining.

 

Then fight like heck to extend Berrios, Sano, Buxton and Wood in the winter and this team could be young, fast, powerful, and across-the-board talented for years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 4:30 PM, dbminn said:

Yeah, two RP wouldn't mean much at this point.

Two RP can absolutely mean something -- but not necessarily these two specific RP from the Mets.

 

I'm open to a SP/RP package deal if it reduces our cost, but subtracting from our current 25-man isn't really a reduction in cost, but rather a shift in cost (and an uncomfortable one, at that).

[dbminn]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 4:42 PM, spycake said:

Two RP can absolutely mean something -- but not necessarily these two specific RP from the Mets.

 

I'm open to a SP/RP package deal if it reduces our cost, but subtracting from our current 25-man isn't really a reduction in cost, but rather a shift in cost (and an uncomfortable one, at that).

 

I honestly don't understand your position. First, you rely on data that shows Syndergaard is worth 7x as much as Sano and devote paragraphs explaining why Thor is far superior. Now you say that Sano is too important to the 25-man roster, even though the Twins would acquire the far superior player at a position of need in the playoffs, plus two high-power relief arms. 

 

I added Kirilloff, which still keeps the trade value shifted to the Twins, according to BTV. But now it's too much? I don't see your point. Are the RP overvalued? Is Kirilloff undervalued?

[howeda7]

 

  On 7/26/2019 at 4:39 PM, jkcarew said:

I'd part with Lewis in a deal for Syndergaard. Absolutely. Kirilloff is the one I'd have second thoughts with. I think two-three years from now, we'll want/need another thumper given Cruz's age, Cron's contract, etc, uncertainty regarding Sano/Rosario extensions. If more scouts/analysts seemed convinced regarding Lewis offensively, I'd feel differently.

Seems most here value Kiriloff over Lewis and I'm curious why? Lewis will play OF if he can't stick at SS/2B and isn't he going to be better offensively?

[jorgenswest]

If the Twins lose Kirilloff they still have Larnach and they also have Lewis who can be moved to outfield.

 

If they need to find a short term solution for a position in free agency it is far easier to do that on a corner than anywhere else. They also have the current outfield through 2021. If it takes Kirilloff to get the deal done send him.