Noah Syndergaard

[BattleYourTailOff]

Thor

Madbum

Berrios

There's our playoff rotation

Sign me up. If only that fevered dream was plausible

[twinsfanstreif]

If the Mets were to be willing to move him to the Twins what sort of package would it take? Would something like Graterol, Javier and Larnach be enough? That too much? What do you think?

Man, I must be the only one who feels like this is WAY too much for a half year rental, those are our #3,4,and 5 prospects on many boards and all should be top 100 prospects or at least borderline. I would only consider that deal if he agreed to an extension that's not outlandish (not gonna happen). For me I would only consider trading one of those guys for a rental, not all 3.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, was using fWAR, as I think it's a better indicator of defensive- and park-neutral performance.

 

(also clarifying that I *didn’t* check rWAR and then base a decision on what confirmed my opinion because had I checked rWAR, I would have referenced the discrepancy)

FWIW, in case anyone reads this and gets the wrong idea, it should be noted that bWAR aka rWAR has adjustments for park and even defense -- they just don't base it on FIP like fWAR so it comes out a little different.

 

But you have to admit, deGrom comes out pretty close even by fWAR. As my post shows, age 26-30, deGrom compares favorably with Scherzer and Greinke in fWAR at the same ages, and is only ~12% behind Sale. Per 30 starts, that difference is like 5.2 fWAR for deGrom vs 5.8 fWAR for Sale.

 

Using Kershaw as the threshold for "ace" might be a little too strict. Especially if you ever have any hope of getting an ace via FA or trade.

 

(That said, I think the tangent is moot because I don't believe deGrom would be on the trade block. Hypothetically, though, if he was, I could see an argument for paying a big price in trade for him.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

Man, I must be the only one who feels like this is WAY too much for a half year rental, those are our #3,4,and 5 prospects on many boards and all should be top 100 prospects or at least borderline. I would only consider that deal if he agreed to an extension that's not outlandish (not gonna happen). For me I would only consider trading one of those guys for a rental, not all 3.

Syndergaard is not a rental. He is controlled for 2.5 seasons, though 2021.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If I recall correctly, the Mets were unwilling to include Mike Pelfrey.

Yes, that was the sentiment at the time. Although even Pelfrey wasn't much of a prospect any more -- he lost his prospect eligibility in 2007 with the Mets and was pretty lousy in both results and peripherals at AAA and MLB that season.

 

But it turns out the Mets could have thrown in their top prospect Fernando Martinez and it wouldn't have made any difference either!

[twinsfanstreif]

Syndergaard is not a rental. He is controlled for 2.5 seasons, though 2021.

Weird, not sure how I missed that, I was under the impression he was hitting FA next year. In that case, yeah, he's gonna be expensive. I still wouldn't give up quite that much, maybe 2 out of the three and 2 more lower prospects

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

FWIW, in case anyone reads this and gets the wrong idea, it should be noted that bWAR aka rWAR has adjustments for park and even defense -- they just don't base it on FIP like fWAR so it comes out a little different.

But you have to admit, deGrom comes out pretty close even by fWAR. As my post shows, age 26-30, deGrom compares favorably with Scherzer and Greinke in fWAR at the same ages, and is only ~12% behind Sale. Per 30 starts, that difference is like 5.2 fWAR for deGrom vs 5.8 fWAR for Sale.

I'm aware how each metric calculates its value, I happen to prefer fWAR.

 

But using a sum total doesn't really tell the story here because it ignores that deGrom had one massive outlier year. By year:

 

deGrom: 4.8, 2.9, 4.1, 9.0

 

He basically had a bunch of Greinke relative down years mixed with one Kershaw year. When predicting future performance, I'm going to mostly discard that single Kershaw year and focus on the very-good-but-not-great other years, especially because he has returned to approximately the same pitcher this season.

 

Compare to Chris Sale:

 

5.6, 5.4, 7.5, 6.2

 

Sure, the net total is similar but when predicting future performance, that stability of Sale is far more alluring. He's legitimately one of the best pitchers in baseball on a yearly basis.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm aware how each metric calculates its value, I happen to prefer fWAR.

 

But using a sum total doesn't really tell the story here because it ignores that deGrom had one massive outlier year. By year:

 

deGrom: 4.8, 2.9, 4.1, 9.0

 

He basically had a bunch of Greinke relative down years mixed with one Kershaw year. When predicting future performance, I'm going to mostly discard that single Kershaw year and focus on the very-good-but-not-great other years, especially because he has returned to approximately the same pitcher this season.

 

Compare to Chris Sale:

 

5.6, 5.4, 7.5, 6.2

 

Sure, the net total is similar but when predicting future performance, that stability of Sale is far more alluring. He's legitimately one of the best pitchers in baseball on a yearly basis.

I hear you, but I think WAR (a counting stat) might be exaggerating the difference, especially looking forward.

 

Here they are by a rate stat, FIP- (FIP adjusted for park and league), since 2014 (the start of deGrom's career):

 

deGrom: 72, 70, 82, 82, 49, 72

Sale: 66, 66, 81, 56, 48, 71

 

Advantage Sale, but the "stability" you mention is basically exchanging one extra excellent 56 FIP- season for one still good 82 FIP- season out of those 6. Otherwise, they each have one excellent season, one still good season, and Sale is basically 66-71 and deGrom 70-72 over the remaining 3. (Sale's two earlier 76 FIP- seasons as a starter would further suggest he's closer to deGrom than you might think.)

 

This surprised me, as before I researched this I would have assumed the gap would be larger than that.

 

And in terms of workload, Sale had an advantage in starting his career earlier and "earning" a larger workload earlier. deGrom actually has more IP and IP/GS over the last 3 years so I suspect that part might be equalized going forward. (Add to it that Sale already had a shoulder scare late last season.)

 

I mean, I agree that I'd prefer Sale if they are both available to me at equal cost, but they are close enough from my vantage point that I'm not sure I could ever turn down deGrom just because he's "not Sale" and Sale isn't actually available to me.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Weird, not sure how I missed that, I was under the impression he was hitting FA next year. In that case, yeah, he's gonna be expensive. I still wouldn't give up quite that much, maybe 2 out of the three and 2 more lower prospects

 

You're thinking of Wheeler. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

And I know it's a really small sample against different mixes of competition, but Sale has yet to differentiate himself from deGrom in his postseason pitching either:

 

deGrom: 25 IP, 77 ERA-, 73 FIP-, 85 xFIP-

Sale: 25 IP, 127 ERA-, 96 FIP-, 71 xFIP-

[Otto von Ballpark]

Looking at Syndergaard's full-ish seasons by FIP-:

 

84, 57, 70, 85

 

His K% has actually declined every year since his second season, to where it's now just a tick better than league average. And he only has one year with ERA qualifier innings so far (at 185) -- he's on pace for a new career high of about 201 IP this year.

 

I'd still like to acquire him, but on the question of him vs. deGrom, they're still pretty close from my vantage point, even after accounting for the differences in salary and age.

[In My La Z boy]

Bumgarner out dueled him yesterday - and has the October experience - and is a rental - and won't cost nearly as much. MadBum keeps getting better and better as this year goes along. He is the kind of pitcher that will live inside the opponents head in October. I know its controversial on this board, but I want him.

[darin617]

 

When Harvey was good he was dominant. A Cy Young caliber guy. He was one of the most valuable players in the game, and they were attempting to win championships.

If you get rid of every high-end guy for a haul of prospects assuming he’ll get injured and have his career derailed by an obscure injury (especially in an age where TJ surgery, knee surgery, etc. are basically routine), then what’s the point? When do you ever win?

 

The Mets seem to have a history of bringing up pitchers early and possibly over using them. Seem like you don't hear much about pitchers after they leave the Mets.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Mets seem to have a history of bringing up pitchers early and possibly over using them. Seem like you don't hear much about pitchers after they leave the Mets.

Other than Harvey, who does this really describe? I'm not sure the careers of Niese or Pelfrey suggest pitcher abuse. Some guys are just mediocre through age 30 and then disappear.

 

What team had a lot of SP that you heard about a lot after they left? The Twins certainly haven't... if you keep a SP until they're near 30, odds are they won't do much after they leave. Did the Rays abuse Archer, Moore, Cobb, and Hellickson? (But not abuse Price?)

[Brock Beauchamp]

I hear you, but I think WAR (a counting stat) might be exaggerating the difference, especially looking forward.

 

Here they are by a rate stat, FIP- (FIP adjusted for park and league), since 2014 (the start of deGrom's career):

 

deGrom: 72, 70, 82, 82, 49, 72

Sale: 66, 66, 81, 56, 48, 71

 

Advantage Sale, but the "stability" you mention is basically exchanging one extra excellent 56 FIP- season for one still good 82 FIP- season out of those 6. Otherwise, they each have one excellent season, one still good season, and Sale is basically 66-71 and deGrom 70-72 over the remaining 3. (Sale's two earlier 76 FIP- seasons as a starter would further suggest he's closer to deGrom than you might think.)

 

This surprised me, as before I researched this I would have assumed the gap would be larger than that.

 

And in terms of workload, Sale had an advantage in starting his career earlier and "earning" a larger workload earlier. deGrom actually has more IP and IP/GS over the last 3 years so I suspect that part might be equalized going forward. (Add to it that Sale already had a shoulder scare late last season.)

 

I mean, I agree that I'd prefer Sale if they are both available to me at equal cost, but they are close enough from my vantage point that I'm not sure I could ever turn down deGrom just because he's "not Sale" and Sale isn't actually available to me.

It’s not that I don’t want deGrom, I’m just concerned about his pay, age, and potential prospect cost (I jumped into the conversation to protest the fact that some are willing to basically loot the farm for the honor of paying a 30-something pitcher ~$30m a year for several years).

 

deGrom is a very good pitcher but I’m not sure he’s worth what some are willing to give for him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It’s not that I don’t want deGrom, I’m just concerned about his pay, age, and potential prospect cost (I jumped into the conversation to protest the fact that some are willing to basically loot the farm for the honor of paying a 30-something pitcher ~$30m a year for several years).

deGrom is a very good pitcher but I’m not sure he’s worth what some are willing to give for him.

That's fair -- but is Lewis, Graterol, and Gordon really "looting the farm"? Especially if there's no better asset available right now for that price?

 

I mean, it's moot because I highly doubt he's actually available, but if he was, I think you'd really have to consider that deal. Yes, I would prefer Kershaw, or Sale, or Scherzer -- but they're not available. Greinke might be a long-shot, I'm not sure we can wait and hope for him.

 

One would assume Syndergaard would be available at that price, if the Mets were selling, so I guess he'd be a more logical target. Although I could also see a situation where your talent evaluators like deGrom more than Syndergaard at the present time too (might also be the reason the Mets extended deGrom while being willing to deal Syndergaard).

[jorgenswest]

There aren’t very many dominating starters. They really make a difference in the playoffs. They have been nearly impossible for the Twins to develop within or acquire in free agency. Like all pitchers, their injury risk is high.

 

The Twins need to pay up and take the risk.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

That's fair -- but is Lewis, Graterol, and Gordon really "looting the farm"? Especially if there's no better asset available right now for that price?

 

I mean, it's moot because I highly doubt he's actually available, but if he was, I think you'd really have to consider that deal. Yes, I would prefer Kershaw, or Sale, or Scherzer -- but they're not available. Greinke might be a long-shot, I'm not sure we can wait and hope for him.

 

One would assume Syndergaard would be available at that price, if the Mets were selling, so I guess he'd be a more logical target. Although I could also see a situation where your talent evaluators like deGrom more than Syndergaard at the present time too (might also be the reason the Mets extended deGrom while being willing to deal Syndergaard).

 

If Thor was Thor of old, I would agree. But Syndergard looks more like Thor in End Game than in Infinity Wars... 

[BattleYourTailOff]

If Thor was Thor of old, I would agree. But Syndergard looks more like Thor in End Game than in Infinity Wars...

I’ll match your hyperbole with the fact that I’d take end game Thor to start a playoff game over every one of our starting pitchers besides berrios. I think I’m in a large company saying that.

[nicksaviking]

I’d like Syndergaard, but that team would be crazy to trade him. He’s at a low point, and while they can still demand a value based on prior history, his value will more than likely increase if he returns to form.

 

But that’s not even the biggest reason; the team isn’t winning now, but they have a really good club and should be a favorite next year. Aside from deGrom and Syndergaard, their pen is stacked, even if the biggest names are struggling now. Their lineup is full of young controllable studs in Alonso, McNeil, Conforto, Nimmo and Rosario, vets Ramos, Cano will be back and they have a fantastic expendable trade chip in former top prospect Dom Smith.

 

If this was the Twins, we’d be losing our minds if they went into sell mode. Though we’d probably be screaming for a new GM and manager.

[operation mindcrime]

Before everyone gets all into these Mets pitchers just take a second and remember how great Matt Harvey was and how foolish the Mets were for not trading him while he was good.

Speaking of Matt Harvey the Angels DFA'd him today!

[cmoss84]

 

Sign me up. If only that fevered dream was plausible

Trust me-there is a better chance that Cousins gets trades for Erin Rodgers.

But why can't it be a possibility? We have the fire power. Here is my DREAM trade deadline:

 

From Giants, we get Bumgarner and Smith

From Mets, we get Syndergaard and Lugo (who I think is REALLY underrated)

 

We give up any combination of:

Lewis, Larnach, Balazovic, Javier, Rooker, Thorpe, Gordon and Jeffers

 

2 of Pineda/Perez/Odorizzi go to the pen.

 

Our top 15 prospects still look like this:

1.Kiriloff

2. Graterol

3-5 Duran/Enlow/Gonsalves

6-15 Baddoo/Blankenhorn/Rortvert/new draftees

 

Do the Twins want to "win" or "WIN?" 

 

[slokat]

I think the Twins would probably have to give up at least Loki and Odin to obtain Thor.

[ashbury]

I think the Twins would probably have to give up at least Loki and Odin to obtain Thor.

Shhhh! Don't give RandBall's Stu ideas!

[nicksaviking]

 

Shhhh! Don't give RandBall's Stu ideas!

 

No, no please do. My mood is such that I could use a laugh at an entertaining bit satire right about now.

[ashbury]

No, no please do. My mood is such that I could use a laugh at an entertaining bit satire right about now.

"Area Man So Distraught By Loss To Yankees That He Openly Solicits Satire Involving Norse Mythology'

 

There ya go, Stu, I've done half your work for ya already.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

"Area Man So Distraught By Loss To Yankees That He Openly Solicits Satire Involving Norse Mythology'

 

There ya go, Stu, I've done half your work for ya already.

Twins fan storms Area 51 looking for Thor.

[Musk21]

Go get him, Twins!

 

https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/1154490876950827008

[nicksaviking]

 

Go get him, Twins!

 

https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/1154490876950827008

 

I hope the Twins get him, but even if they don't, I am going to be fascinated to see how this plays out. I never put much stock into the Mets new agent/GM and I wonder if he'll be able to swing a good deal for his team or if the wolves will be picking the meat off of his bones.

 

[Vanimal46]

A validated trade on baseballtradevalues.com:

 

MIN receives: Noah Syndergaard

 

NYM receives: Kirilloff, Graterol, Gordon, Romero