Article: Wouldja? Trading For Giants Closer Will Smith

[John Bonnes]

It’s easy to say we want the Twins to go out and get a top shelf reliever, but what exactly would one cost? Last year’s trade market can provide some hints. Eight high-level relievers were traded last June and July, giving us some idea how teams value relievers and their own prospects. Let’s look at one, compare them to players this year, and see if you would make that deal.7/26/18 - Chicago White Sox trade Joakim Soria to Milwaukee Brewers for LHP Kodi Medeiros and RHP Wilber Perez

 

Five days before the trade deadline, the Brewers got their shutdown setup man. Joakim Soria had been the White Sox closer, posting a tidy 2.56 ERA with the requisite stats (11.4 K/9) to match. He was purely a rental as he had a player option at the end of the year which he was sure to exercise, making him a free agent.

 

That sounds a lot like Will Smith, the left-handed closer for the Giants, who is one of the more highly sought relievers at the deadline. Both have fantastic stuff, both have been closers this year, but are probably better used as setup men. Both are veterans, and (most importantly) both will be free agents. I suspect most would probably rather have Smith over Soria, so we’ll make sure the second half of the trade upgrades the prospects a bit, too.

 

To get Soria, the Brew Crew had to give up two minor league arms:

 

Kodi Medeiros was a former first round draft pick (12^th overall) who had struggled in the minors, especially with his control. But the 22-year-old was doing better, both with his control (3.9 BB/9) and with the results (3.14 ERA) in AA.

 

Kohl Stewart (#37 on Twins Daily’s midseason prospect list) is not a terrible comp for him in the Twins system. He was also a high draft pick, and also struggled. Has also bounced back a little, and is level higher and two years older. I think most would choose Stewart, but we need to upgrade the package a little anyway.

 

Wilber Perez was a 20-year-old right-hander who was pitching in the Dominican Summer League at the time he was acquired. He has had success there (1.92 ERA) and to a lesser extent this year in Low A (3.92 ERA), but he reportedly has about a 91 mph fastball, so this is not a fire-thrower.

 

Twins prospect Edwar Colina is a level higher, two years older, and has a little more success, so he’s a rich man’s Perez. Colina is also the #24 Twins prospect in our 2019 midseason prospect ranking. But we’re trying to upgrade the package, so let’s keep him as the comp.

 

So, would you trade Stewart and Colina to get Giants closer Smith? You can tell us below, just register and give us your breakdown.

 

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[John Kelsey]

Yes

[beckmt]

Yes

[beckmt]

Qualifier,  think Giants are looking more for infield and outfield prospects than pitchers, but nice comparison. Maybe Gordon, plus low level prospect or just Gordon.

[Seth Stohs]

Already giving up Stewart, I don't see why it would take a RHP prospect in AA who hits triple-digits too. 

 

To be fair, a 20-year-old still in the DSL isn't even a prospect anymore... 

 

then again, maybe it's just me... I have Colina as my #13 Twins prospect, and I might have a thing for your pitchers capable of being a starter who hits 100 mph pretty much every game and has three or four pitches and is already at AA.

[Han Joelo]

How about Prelander Berroa instead of Colina?

[gunnarthor]

Giants can probably do better.

[Otwins]

Thanks for the research. I only saw Colina pitch two innings in spring training but I would not trade him. I would try some combination of two of Stewart, Gonsalves, Gordon, Larnach  

[jokin]

 

Thanks for the research. I only saw Colina pitch two innings in spring training but I would not trade him. I would try some combination of two of Stewart, Gonsalves, Gordon,            Larnach  

 

Larnach for a rental RP? I sure hope not.

[the_brute_squad]

I like it. I don't see Stewart panning out for us so this is as good a time to cut bait with him as any.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Colina isn't a good comparison. As Seth said, a 20 year old in the DSL isn't really a prospect at that point. That's 3 seasons of not getting promoted... I'm guessing that's a bit high.

 

That siad, I'd do it. 

[Tomj14]

The Twins get a great relief pitcher and swap out a guy on the 40, umm yes please.

[David HK]

Did you hear that?

 

That was the heartbeat that went by when considering this question.

 

Yep.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Giants can probably do better.

Agreed. That seems like a pretty cheap price.

[lukeduke1980]

Giants are closing in on wildcard. Maybe they trade no one.

[Lunger]

I would do that deal in a New York minute

[Otto von Ballpark]

A few things:

 

Soria is a RHP, Smith is LHP.

 

Soria was 5 years older.

 

Sofia was making twice as much in salary.

 

Soria's career K/9 is only 9.8. He was likely due to regress from his 2018 numbers (and he has). Smith's career mark since moving to the pen is 12.0, so 2019 is well in line.

[Otto von Ballpark]

A few more differences:

 

Kodi Medeiros is a LHP; Stewart is a RHP.

 

Neither Medeiros or Perez was on the 40-man roster at the time. (Although the White Sox did add Medeiros after the season.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

Finally, there is a difference between the price the Giants wind up accepting to move him somewhere, versus the price the Twins may have to pay to specifically bring him here.

 

Put another way: the Giants may wind up settling for a return like Stewart + filler. But, there are probably a dozen teams willing to make that kind of offer. The Twins making that offer too doesn't actually give them good odds of landing the player. If the Twins can take him or leave him, that may be fine, but if the Twins actually want to land Smith, they may need to make a better offer that could beat other offers.

[Bavarian]

That's not enough!   Come on now.

 

If that happened, I'd do cartwheels.

[Otto von Ballpark]

To be fair, a 20-year-old still in the DSL isn't even a prospect anymore...

 

To be even more fair, Perez wasn't "still in the DSL" in that he had been stuck there a long time. It was his first full pro season. (He signed the previous summer at age 19.)

 

I think he was still a fringe prospect, but he was a late signing rather than a DSL veteran. Alcala signed at age 19 too.

[woolywoolhouse]

 

Giants are closing in on wildcard. Maybe they trade no one.

 

They're only 3 games back in the Wild Card race, but they'd have to leap over five-six other teams to get there (including three in their own division.) They're still currently 4 games under .500. I think they're selling, it just might be another week or two before they do. (And I hope the Twins only take Smith instead of a Smith/Bumgarner combo, personally.)

[Tom Froemming]

 

Giants are closing in on wildcard. Maybe they trade no one.

Yep, though we'll see how the next couple weeks shake out.

 

The NL is so weird right now. The Giants are in last place in their division ... and only three back of the Wild Card. They took a series at Milwaukee and then swept a doubleheader at Colorado yesterday.

[jorgenswest]

I think Britton is a better comp by age and handedness.

 

Smith is a better piece than Soria and Medeiros was significantly younger than Stewart.

 

Smith is still a better add than Britton as Britton was coming off injury. It took three near ready major league pitchers to get Britton. Maybe Stewart, Gonsalves and Stashak would be a match for that deal. It might take Thorpe over Gonsalves.

[SomeGuy]

 

They're only 3 games back in the Wild Card race, but they'd have to leap over five-six other teams to get there (including three in their own division.) They're still currently 4 games under .500. I think they're selling, it just might be another week or two before they do. (And I hope the Twins only take Smith instead of a Smith/Bumgarner combo, personally.)

They gained 4 games on the wildcard since July 1st and passed 3 teams in that stretch. With how close everyone is, passing 6 teams isn't that big of a deal. They could pass 2 teams today if they win and San Diego losses, they would be tied for 3rd in their division. They have been 22-15 since June 1st and the 5 teams immediately ahead of them have been playing poorly.

 

I still think they sell or should sell but I also think they can ask for more now that they have this illusion of being in the race.They can rightly argue that the buying team would be taking them out of contention. The NL should be fun to watch at the deadline and hopefully in the final days of the season.

 

The new trade deadline is already having a huge impact. I think multiple fan bases will be disappointed in decisions to sell so close to the wildcard while other teams will wish they sold when they drop off after the deadline.

Edited July 16, 2019 by SomeGuy

[old nurse]

Britton trade as a comp, the Orioles got back a once ranked starting prospect who has not panned out and 2 fringe relievers. The Twins could come up with that.

[nicksaviking]

Yeah, the Giants look like a bad team that is still somehow winning a reasonable number of games. 

 

That 2nd WC in the NL is troublesome. I can't see St Louis, Philadelphia or Milwaukee waiving the white flag under any circumstance, so it would be real nice if two of them went on a blistering run ASAP. It sure would be a shame if SD, COL, AZ, SF, PIT and CIN all decide they're close enough to hang on to their players. Those teams have a lot of the arms I'd like to try to get. 

 

Or maybe even worse, if only one or two of those teams decide to sell, then they get to hold everyone over a barrel because of the lack of sellers. Sure seemed like last year it was a buyers market at the deadline; looks to be the opposite this year now that the Twins are shopping around.

[Nate Tubbs Rules]

Can you trade Jorge Alcala, Gilberto Celstino, Dakota Chalmers, Ryan Costello, and Chase De Jong for the 2019 equivalents of 2018 pitchers Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke, and Ryan Pressley (aka a 6th inning LHP and 2 7th/8th inning RHPs?)

 

 

[jorgenswest]

Britton trade as a comp, the Orioles got back a once ranked starting prospect who has not panned out and 2 fringe relievers. The Twins could come up with that.

The 2018 fangraphs values

 

Dillon Tate FV 45 - 24 years old starter

Cody Carroll FV 40 - 25 years old reliever

Josh Rogers unranked - 23 year old lefty starter with 3.95 ERA in AAA

 

I used July 1 age but Rogers and Tate are virtually the same age with birthdays on both sides of July 1

 

In Gonsalves, Smeltzer and Thorpe the Twins are close to Tate but not quite there. It might take two of them plus a reliever or maybe one of them Stewart and reliever.

 

I know my suggestion on Stewart, Gonsalves and Stashak is light because there is one FV 40 compared to a 45 and a 40.

Edited July 16, 2019 by jorgenswest

[Steve Lein]

 

Already giving up Stewart, I don't see why it would take a RHP prospect in AA who hits triple-digits too. 

 

To be fair, a 20-year-old still in the DSL isn't even a prospect anymore... 

 

then again, maybe it's just me... I have Colina as my #13 Twins prospect, and I might have a thing for your pitchers capable of being a starter who hits 100 mph pretty much every game and has three or four pitches and is already at AA.

 

Yeah I'm with you. I had Colina at #13 too. 

 

In my opinion, the way rental players have moved the past few seasons, that range of Twins prospect alone would be enough, but he's not necessarily the name I'd be willing to part with for the same reasons.

 

Kohl Stewart + someone from our OF depth not in the top 20 is where I'd go (Zander Wiel?).