Keith Law Midseason Top 50

[Steve Lein]

Keith Law has posted his midseason top 50 prospect list. 

 

Is behind the Insider paywall: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/27161120/keith-law-midseason-top-50-prospects-update

 

Three Twins accounted for:

 

#15 - Alex Kirilloff - Says bat still there, just slowed by the injuries. (#11 preseason)

 

#34 - Royce Lewis - I don't recall where he previously had him, but doesn't like the changes to his swing that occurred and calls him below average at SS, better suited for center field. (was at #9 in preseason list, so a good fall)

 

#44 - Jordan Balazovic - After pitching to his highest workload yet so far, enough has been seen to vault him up almost 60 places. 4-pitch mix with above average to plus command and remaining projection. (#102 preseason)

 

edits: included the preseason rankings.

[Mike Sixel]

Wow. That's a huge drop for Lewis. I wonder where Gaterol would be if healthy .....

[amjgt]

If I remember correctly, Law wasn't very high on Graterol in his preseason rankings

[SpicyGarvSauce]

Have we confirmed if these changes to Lewis's swings were done by himself, or if he was directed to do this from the Twins coaching staff?

[Steve Lein]

 

Wow. That's a huge drop for Lewis. I wonder where Gaterol would be if healthy .....

 

Graterol was #108 preseason (in his "just missed" group with Balazovic). I would think he's moved up despite the injury.

[Mike Sixel]

Graterol was #108 preseason (in his "just missed" group with Balazovic). I would think he's moved up despite the injury.

Thanks.

[Steve Lein]

 

If I remember correctly, Law wasn't very high on Graterol in his preseason rankings

 

On Graterol from the preseason, where he was #108: "Scouts see no projection here and a delivery that probably points to a power-reliever role."

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25833101/just-missed-top-100

[Steve Lein]

 

Have we confirmed if these changes to Lewis's swings were done by himself, or if he was directed to do this from the Twins coaching staff?

 

I only have recollections of people saying Lewis made changes, but that doesn't mean I'm right. A few articles/notes out there now talking about a lot of moving parts (leg kick) and complexity to it.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I don't know how much validity to put into a system that accounts so heavily for a half-season of minor league stats (Lewis dropping from 9 to 34). 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't know how much validity to put into a system that accounts so heavily for a half-season of minor league stats (Lewis dropping from 9 to 34). 

 

What makes you think it is only based on half a season? Also, we learn more as time goes on, maybe it's that he's been in high A for a year, and hasn't hit well? Maybe it's that KLAW still doesn't think he's a SS, and his fear is more real than it was? It could be lots of things.

 

Also, maybe LOTS of guys stepped up, and just passed him. 

 

Really, half a year is a lot of data to see if you hunch/belief/projection from the past is good or not.

 

Or, you can ignore the lists, also an option. I find them mostly entertaining. Also, they are based on conversations with scouts and others around the leagues, so they probably hold some weight as to industry consensus.....

[Steve Lein]

 

I don't know how much validity to put into a system that accounts so heavily for a half-season of minor league stats (Lewis dropping from 9 to 34). 

 

[Mike Sixel]

mike sixel
1:47 Royce Lewis.....is his fall mostly that your fears of him at SS are confirmed? A year of not hitting in A+? Clearly his change to his hitting is not going well. Did he do that on his own? Thanks,

 

Keith Law
1:48 Much more about not hitting/visible changes to his mechanics. I have never bought into the claims that he'll stay at short: He's not good there, and he could be very good in CF, maybe a 70 or better defender there. Most organizations would probably have moved him but the Twins have an 80 defender in center in the majors, so that may be one reason why they haven't.

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2019/07/11/klawchat-7-11-19/

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

What makes you think it is only based on half a season?

Because then Law’s preseason ranking would have had Lewis closer to 34 than to 9, for all the same reasons—doesn’t like his swing, didn’t hit well in high A to finish 2018.

 

Three months of stat lines is nothing to sneeze at, but it’s not necessarily predictive of where he will finish the year, either.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Because then Law’s preseason ranking would have had Lewis closer to 34 than to 9, for all the same reasons—doesn’t like his swing, didn’t hit well in high A to finish 2018.

Three months of stat lines is nothing to sneeze at, but it’s not necessarily predictive of where he will finish the year, either.

 

That's not how predictions about the future work. They aren't absolute, they come with all kinds of projections. As we gather more data, some of those are confirmed, or refuted. 

 

In three months, we'll only have three months more data than we do now, why would that be enough to change your mind from where it is now?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

In three months, we'll only have three months more data than we do now, why would that be enough to change your mind from where it is now?

That’s exactly the question I’d have for Law

[Mike Sixel]

 

That’s exactly the question I’d have for Law

 

As I said, he'll have more data to either confirm or refute his beliefs. He also talks to scouts and others around the game to do these. I'm guessing we both know his answer. Go ask him if you want.

[Old Twins Cap]

Woah, look at Royce's build.

 

He filling out that man-body he talked about not having as an 18 year old.

[Han Joelo]

Not sure how many players "graduated" off of his list, but a 25 spot slide could be even greater than it seems if given that context.

 

Law's not afraid to have an opinion, I'll give him that.

[gunnarthor]

 

Graterol was #108 preseason (in his "just missed" group with Balazovic). I would think he's moved up despite the injury.

Why? An injury is pretty big deal. And to his shoulder? Cripes, that's a pretty big flag. If he only pitches 47 innings this year, which is likely, after throwing 60 last year, I'd think his status has taken a huge hit. He'd be a injury plagued bullpen guy with a big arm. 

[John Kelsey]

 

Not sure how many players "graduated" off of his list, but a 25 spot slide could be even greater than it seems if given that context.

 

Law's not afraid to have an opinion, I'll give him that.

 

I didn't see the list, but I would assume it includes guys who were just drafted as well?

[nicksaviking]

 

mike sixel
1:47 Royce Lewis.....is his fall mostly that your fears of him at SS are confirmed? A year of not hitting in A+? Clearly his change to his hitting is not going well. Did he do that on his own? Thanks,

 

Keith Law
1:48 Much more about not hitting/visible changes to his mechanics. I have never bought into the claims that he'll stay at short: He's not good there, and he could be very good in CF, maybe a 70 or better defender there. Most organizations would probably have moved him but the Twins have an 80 defender in center in the majors, so that may be one reason why they haven't.

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2019/07/11/klawchat-7-11-19/

 

I'm not worried about his defense, these guys always claim guys can't stick at short unless they are absolutely elite. Their evaluations never seem to leave any room for average to below-average gloves at any given position.

 

I don't like the swing change bit for Lewis and it would be nice to know where it came from, particularly since most players are told to quite down their movements, not amp them up. But I'm also not too troubled by it; it's just tinkering after all. Nothing is stopping Lewis or anyone else from going back to an old swing or doing something completely new. Big deal, if it doesn't work, he won't stick with it.

 

I don't much care for Lewis' drop, but I do like that KLaw is a bit of a contrarian in his rankings. Seems a lot of these end up getting pretty group-think-y.

[Thegrin]

Keith Law's evaluations are good for entertainment only.  No serious fan should give them a passing glance. 

[Steve Lein]

 

Why? An injury is pretty big deal. And to his shoulder? Cripes, that's a pretty big flag. If he only pitches 47 innings this year, which is likely, after throwing 60 last year, I'd think his status has taken a huge hit. He'd be a injury plagued bullpen guy with a big arm. 

 

Based on his results while healthy. Law has always had him pegged as a reliever based on what you mention here and his high-effort delivery.

[COTwinsFan]

I personally pay a lot more attention to Keith Law's list as he has his own individual opinions and doesn't get caught up in the group think of most other lists. I think the bigger takeaway is how high he is on Jordan Balazovic. Due to the anchoring effect of draft position, Jordan Balazovic had to out perform to an incredible level just to even make the top 50. 

[SpicyGarvSauce]

I would ask Keith this question - did he think Jorge Polanco would play well at SS when he was coming up as a prospect?

[Steve Lein]

 

I would ask Keith this question - did he think Jorge Polanco would play well at SS when he was coming up as a prospect?

 

A good thing about Keith, in my experience, is he also is not afraid to admit he was wrong.

 

He's done so repeatedly in reference to Jose Berrios.

[zenser]

 

I didn't see the list, but I would assume it includes guys who were just drafted as well?

Yes, there are newly drafted guys on the list.  Rutschman at 7, Vaughn at 12, Witt at 21.

[COTwinsFan]

 

A good thing about Keith, in my experience, is he also is not afraid to admit he was wrong.

 

He's done so repeatedly in reference to Jose Berrios.

Completely agree with this. It seems Law's biggest misses are generally shorter starting pitchers.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Keith Law's evaluations are good for entertainment only.  No serious fan should give them a passing glance. 

 

As opposed to what rankings? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would ask Keith this question - did he think Jorge Polanco would play well at SS when he was coming up as a prospect?

 

to what end? He offers opinion on thousands of players over time. He can't be wrong? I'm not sure what purpose this question would serve. I'm curious, why would you ask this?