Article: Twins Daily 2019 Midseason Top 40 Prospects: Recap

[Nick Nelson]

While the first half of the season has gone swimmingly for Minnesota's big-league club, things were less rosy in the minors. The highest end of the prospect pool has been plagued by injuries, stagnation, and regression.

 

How much do you weigh these developments, spanning only a few months? And conversely, how much do you let impressive short-term showings from some players lower on the list bolster their rankings?

 

There was significant dissent around these matters on the ol' Twins Daily prospect editorial board, which manifested in our midseason rankings over the past couple weeks. But the aggregated list you'll find below is, I think, a reasonable snapshot of where things stand heading into the second half.Twins Daily's Midseason 2019 Top 40 Prospects:

 

40. Sean Poppen, RHP

39. Zander Wiel, OF

38. Bailey Ober, RHP

37. Kohl Stewart, RHP

36. Gabriel Maciel, OF

35. Jaylin Davis, OF

34. Cole Sands, RHP

33. Tyler Wells, RHP

32. Griffin Jax, RHP

31. LaMonte Wade Jr., OF

30. Lewin Diaz, 1B

29. Devin Smeltzer, LHP

28. Matt Canterino, LHP

27. Luke Raley, OF

26. Gilberto Celestino, OF

25. Yunior Severino, IF

24. Edwar Colina, RHP

23. Jose Miranda, IF

22. Zack Littell, RHP

21. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP

20. Travis Blankenhorn, IF

19. Misael Urbina, OF

18. Jorge Alcala, RHP

17. Akil Baddoo, OF

16. Ben Rortvedt, C

15. Matt Wallner, OF

14. Luis Arraez, IF

13. Ryan Jeffers, C

12. Nick Gordon, SS

11. Lewis Thorpe, LHP

10. Blayne Enlow, RHP

9. Jhoan Duran, RHP

8. Brent Rooker, OF

7. Keoni Cavaco, IF

6. Jordan Balazovic, RHP

5. Wander Javier, SS

4. Trevor Larnach, OF

3. Brusdar Graterol, RHP

2. Alex Kirilloff, OF

1. Royce Lewis, SS

 

TOP 3 LOCKED IN

 

Let's be honest, it hasn't been an especially encouraging first half for any of Minnesota's vaunted top three prospects.

 

Royce Lewis has struggled to find any kind of offensive rhythm at the plate, plagued by long slumps and major lapses in plate discipline. Alex Kirilloff has been bothered by lingering wrist issues, and (perhaps not unrelated) his bat has been far less potent. Kirilloff has managed just two home runs through 41 games with a .749 OPS at Pensacola (though he has been heating up lately). Brusdar Graterol was off to a spectacular start in Double-A, but hasn't pitched in six weeks due to a shoulder impingement, and his return doesn't appear imminent.

 

Having said all that, none of these three budged from our preseason rankings, for multiple reasons:

 

1: They had all built up enough equity through past performance that their positions are quite solid.

2: All three are VERY young for their respective levels, facing much older and more experienced competition. (As for Graterol, who dominated his elevated competition, there's no particular reason to panic about this one injury, although it's obviously concerning.)

3: No one behind them quite made a strong enough case to leapfrog into the top three, although – as we'll now cover – there are plenty of up-and-comers in the system.

 

GOING UP

 

Florida is more than just a steamy summer wedding destination. It's also where the mercury's rising in the Twins' system. The biggest upward movement in our rankings was Jordan Balazovic, who was unranked in our preseason top 20 and now lands in the No. 6 spot. I noted back then we might end up looking silly for not having the big Fort Myers righty on our list, and now we sure do. We've corrected our error by vaulting Balazovic to his rightful place as the organization's second-best pitching prospect. The former fifth-round draft pick has been divine at two levels of A-ball this year, posting an incredible 91-to-19 K/BB ratio in 66 innings as a 20-year-old.

 

Travis Blankenhorn (No. 20) and Lewin Diaz (No. 30) also caught fire in southwest Florida before graduating to Pensacola, where both continue to rake. Blankenhorn and Diaz were former fixtures in the TD top prospect rankings before fading in recent years. Their resurgences are good reminders not to give up on young talent.

 

Speaking of underrated young talent, Luis Arraez jumped into the Top 20 (at No. 14) after failing to make the preseason cut. He appeared as an honorable mention, labeled a "hit machine."

 

GOING DOWN

 

For the most part, our Top 20 remained intact with little movement, aside from a few guys bumped by new arrivals. One significant dropoff came from Akil Baddoo, who slid from No. 10 to No. 17. The athletic outfielder slashed .214/.290/.393 with a decline in his signature walk rate over 29 games at Fort Myers before succumbing to Tommy John surgery, which will keep him out into next year. We still have plenty of hope for the 20-year-old, but it's impossible to deny the toll this takes on his outlook and timeline.

 

Yunior Severino is down 10 spots from No. 15 to No. 25, as a broken thumb has prevented him from being able to show anything. LaMonte Wade Jr. dropped from No. 18 to No. 31 while failing to show any pop at Triple-A. Stephen Gonsalves fell from No. 12 to No. 21, limited by arm problems to two total innings.

 

Gilberto Celestino dropped 10 spots from his placement at No. 16 in our preseason rankings. The toolsy young center fielder hasn't adjusted well to competition in full-season ball, posting a .631 OPS thus far at Cedar Rapids. His lack of emergence hurts in combination with the languishing Jorge Alcala, who curiously moved up a spot to No. 18 despite posting a 5.81 ERA and 1.51 WHIP for Pensacola. Clearly, there's still belief in that big arm. The Twins would love to see some progress from him and/or Celestino in the second half, as they watch Ryan Pressly – whom they traded him for the duo last summer – tear it up in the Astros bullpen. Pressly was named to the All-Star team over the weekend.

 

STRONG RETURNS

 

The Pressly deal isn't looking great right now. No two ways about it. However, the Twins appear to have done well in their other sell moves at the 2018 deadline. Jhoan Duran, acquired in the Eduardo Escobar trade, finds himself at No. 9 and has been untouchable for Florida State League hitters in his last five starts (30 IP, 1.80 ERA, 45-12 K/BB). He's keeping opponents off the board like a goaltender in soccer. Gabriel Maciel, who came over alongside Duran, is at No. 36, having batted .305 with a .392 OBP between two levels of A-ball. Luke Raley and Devin Smeltzer, who came over from the Dodgers in exchange for three crummy months of Brian Dozier, both made the Top 30, and Smeltzer of course had a very nice MLB debut in May.

 

NEWCOMERS

 

Minnesota's top three selections in last month's draft all made entry. Highest, of course, is first-rounder Keoni Cavaco, whose massive upside compelled us to slot him No. 7, above the excelling Brent Rooker and Duran. Outfielder (and local product) Matt Wallner slides in at No. 15, and right-hander Matt Canterino – the Rice University right-hander who became the team's first pitcher selected – claims a spot at No. 28.

 

DAZZLING DEBUTS

 

We saw two members of this Top 20 debut in the first half: Lewis Thorpe (No. 11) fired five innings of two-run ball on Sunday, and Arraez (No. 14) is batting .411 as a rookie in the big leagues. Smeltzer (No. 29) also had an excellent debut. Wade Jr. (No. 31) and Sean Poppen (No. 40) made brief Twins appearances as well. It's promising to see so many players from outside the Top 10 transitioning smoothly to the big leagues, and speaks well to the development system in place. The best is yet to come.

 

On that note, who will be the next player from this Top 40 list to make his major-league debut? I welcome your guesses in the comments. Smart money right now is on Rooker, who is mashing to the tune of a .980 OPS at Triple-A (.350/.511/.641 since the start of June), and unleashed this ridiculous bomb the other night:

 

 

He'll fit right in.

 

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[tboltz34]

I always look forward to prospect rankings from this website. I feel like they are considerably better than the national publications. I have started to create my own rankings over the last few years. This list was made right after the draft.

 

1. Royce Lewis

2. Alex Kiriloff

3. Brusdar Graterol

4. Jordan Balazovic

5. Jhoan Duran

6. Trevor Larnach

7. Wander Javier

8. Keoni Cavaco

9. Brent Rooker

10. Ben Rortvedt

11. Blayne Enlow

12. Ryan Jeffers

13. Misael Urbina

14. Travis Blankenhorn

15. Akil Baddoo

16. Jorge Alcala

17. Lewis Thorpe

18. Luis Arraez

19. Nick Gordon

20. Lewin Diaz

21. Matt Wallner

22. Cole Sands

23. Stephen Gonsalves

24. Yunior Severino

25. Edwar Colina

 

A few notes after comparing my list to Twin’s Daily. I value position, defense, and upside. I’m not as high on the Larnach, Rooker, and Wallner trio. I believe their upside is limited being below average defenders with strikeout concerns (not so much Larnach). I value the high upside pitchers and have Duran ranked higher than most. Rortvedt is ranked higher than Jeffers because I believe his defense will be considerably better at a premium position. Looking back, I probably have Blankenhorn and Lewin DIaz a little high because of recent performances. I probably have Gordon and Thorpe too low because of prospect fatigue. Lastly, for some reason I view Arráez and Astudillo as similar players and think MLB pitchers will adjust to Arráez similar to what we have seen with Astudillo. Both are high contact players, with limited power, and don’t field any position well. But if you are going to have one tool, it might as well be the hit tool.

 

Overall, it’s always a fun exercise to do. I will brag that I did have Mitch Garver ranked 5-10 spots higher than most, in the past! As always, thanks for the awesome content.

[John Kelsey]

Balazovic is still underrated. 

[clutterheart]

I am having a difficult time remembering a worse half a season for MN prospects.

 

Injuries and poor performances have taken their toll.

[bird]

 

I am having a difficult time remembering a worse half a season for MN prospects.

Injuries and poor performances have taken their toll.

 

 

Geez, how old are you, ten? 

 

Heck, I remember a time when Doug Deeds made the top 10 and the best we could do was WISH he was abysmal due to injury.

[clutterheart]

 

Geez, how old are you, ten? 

 

Heck, I remember a time when Doug Deeds made the top 10 and the best we could do was WISH he was abysmal due to injury.

When Doug Deeds was a prospect the org had some great performances from prospects like a pre-injury Jason Kubel, Baker, Liriano, Jesse Crain, Bartlett.

 

Those were the salad days

 

 

[bird]

 

When Doug Deeds was a prospect the org had some great performances from prospects like a pre-injury Jason Kubel, Baker, Liriano, Jesse Crain, Bartlett.

 

Those were the salad days

 

 

Really?

 

When I look down this current list, I see a dozen or so who are having absolutely stellar years. And Doug Deeds wouldn't make this list if you doubled the number of top prospects, wouldn't you agree?

Edited July 3, 2019 by birdwatcher

[dbminn]

The TD staff has put together a fine list. The prospect depth is remarkable.

 

For me, the most surprising story of the first half has been the AAA prospects.

• The 40th prospect, Sean Poppen, has two major league pitches. He'll get plenty of MLB chances as a RP before his career is over.
• JDavis is having a breakout type of year for a lower-ranked prospect. He could be a viable backup OF next season. He could be AAAA too, but his outlook is a lot brighter than it was in April.
• Littell can throw 96 out of the bullpen. Didn't see that coming.
• Arraez could end up an everyday 2B before his career is done (50 FV). 
• Thorpe looked good in his first start. Not a lot of power but he can pitch.
• Rooker has scary power and he's getting to it.

That's a lot of positive results from what is arguably the weakest part of the Twins system.

[ashbury]

And Doug Deeds wouldn't make this list if you doubled the number of top prospects, wouldn't you agree?

A ninth-rounder from 2002 is a benchmark for anything?

 

I literally did not remember the name. He wasn't touted, was he?

 

If you're doing some kind of RandBall's Stu satire, ya got me.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The TD staff has put together a fine list. The prospect depth is remarkable.

 

For me, the most surprising story of the first half has been the AAA prospects.

• The 40th prospect, Sean Poppen, has two major league pitches. He'll get plenty of MLB chances as a RP before his career is over.
• JDavis is having a breakout type of year for a lower-ranked prospect. He could be a viable backup OF next season. He could be AAAA too, but his outlook is a lot brighter than it was in April.
• Littell can throw 96 out of the bullpen. Didn't see that coming.
• Arraez could end up an everyday 2B before his career is done (50 FV). 
• Thorpe looked good in his first start. Not a lot of power but he can pitch.
• Rooker has scary power and he's getting to it.

That's a lot of positive results from what is arguably the weakest part of the Twins system.

Yeah this... This system is scary deep.. It's also why I'm looking forward to the deadline. The team broke out at the right time b/c there's going to be a lot of guys needing to hit the 40 man over the next season or two... May as well trade some of them and get some upgrades on the 25 man. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

The TD staff has put together a fine list. The prospect depth is remarkable.

 

For me, the most surprising story of the first half has been the AAA prospects.

• The 40th prospect, Sean Poppen, has two major league pitches. He'll get plenty of MLB chances as a RP before his career is over.
• JDavis is having a breakout type of year for a lower-ranked prospect. He could be a viable backup OF next season. He could be AAAA too, but his outlook is a lot brighter than it was in April.
• Littell can throw 96 out of the bullpen. Didn't see that coming.
• Arraez could end up an everyday 2B before his career is done (50 FV). 
• Thorpe looked good in his first start. Not a lot of power but he can pitch.
• Rooker has scary power and he's getting to it.

That's a lot of positive results from what is arguably the weakest part of the Twins system.

 

I'd point out too that while we started the articles two weeks ago, we did the vote closer to 4 weeks ago. A lot has happened even since then that could alter the vote if we did it right now. You''d like to think not too much shifting, but there could be some. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

A ninth-rounder from 2002 is a benchmark for anything?

 

I literally did not remember the name. He wasn't touted, was he?

 

If you're doing some kind of RandBall's Stu satire, ya got me.

 

No, but he and Nick Swisher played together at Ohio State. Swisher was the first rounder. Deeds was the 9th rounder. Deeds had as good or better numbers on their rise up the minors. Swisher got a shot and had a solid career. Deeds topped out in AAA and never got a shot. 

[dbminn]

 

I'd point out too that while we started the articles two weeks ago, we did the vote closer to 4 weeks ago. A lot has happened even since then that could alter the vote if we did it right now. You''d like to think not too much shifting, but there could be some. 

 

I think the list holds up quite well! 

[ashbury]

No, but he and Nick Swisher played together at Ohio State. Swisher was the first rounder. Deeds was the 9th rounder. Deeds had as good or better numbers on their rise up the minors. Swisher got a shot and had a solid career. Deeds topped out in AAA and never got a shot. 

Soooo, baseball teams, collectively, guessed right?

[Tom Froemming]

 

I'd point out too that while we started the articles two weeks ago, we did the vote closer to 4 weeks ago. A lot has happened even since then that could alter the vote if we did it right now. You''d like to think not too much shifting, but there could be some. 

I'll say that my postseason list for the Prospect Handbook will likely be much different. That's not so much because of what happens between now and then, I'll just have a lot more time to invest in it.

[jkcarew]

I'll admit that watching the very top of this list, so far this year, has been a little like watching paint dry. But that's why I love the top-20 and the top-40 lists that the staff puts together. It's always easy to find several examples of guys over-performing to get excited about. To that end...

 

Happy 25th birthday to Jaylin Davis! I love seeing guys like this...getting a little long in the tooth (prospect-wise)...taking significant steps, and starting to knock on the door of realizing their dream...if not with the Twins, maybe as a minor-league FA with another team, etc.

[mikelink45]

 

Balazovic is still underrated. 

wasn't he a surprise high ranking prospect in Keith Laws preseason listing?

[John Kelsey]

 

wasn't he a surprise high ranking prospect in Keith Laws preseason listing?

 

Yes, I'm not a big Klaw fan but he nailed that one. 

[Rosterman]

I would be happy if 12-15 of these names actually played a game with the Twins in the majors. Maybe another 10 or so will play elsewhere in the majors (overlapping with those the Twins bring up). That leaves a good portion of guys to identify as being depth and tradable as assets to the team in the next couple of years. 

 

That is what is so difficult about running a major league organization. Who to advance. Who gets delayed. What are the weaknesses. How to exploit those weaknesses for curent needs.

 

But overall, this is one wonderful batch of 40 names, with at least two depth at every position and twice as many pitching prospects as the Twins will ever need to call from the minors in the next three seasons.

[nater79a]

Jordan Balazovic obviously gets this years' "Meteoric Rise Award".

 

Next year at this time?   I'm going Cole Sands.   Top-15 at least.  Like his future a lot (health permitting).

[bird]

 

A ninth-rounder from 2002 is a benchmark for anything?

 

I literally did not remember the name. He wasn't touted, was he?

 

If you're doing some kind of RandBall's Stu satire, ya got me.

 

 

Oh, Deeds was a thing, but I prolly should have referenced David Winfree instead to refute the notion of salad days of the past compared to this list. Winfree checked in at #7 on Seth's list in 2007. And probably earned his spot! On second thought, maybe Trent Oeltjen at #9 and Winnie should have swapped spots. 

Edited July 3, 2019 by birdwatcher

[markos]

Had some time this afternoon to put together a quick top-20 list. Probably didn't think this through enough, but here goes:

 

1. Lewis
2. Kirilloff
3. Rortvedt
4. Balazovic
5. Graterol
6. Larnach
7. Thorpe
8. Jeffers
9. Arraez
10. Cavaco
11. Rooker
12. Duran
13. Gordon
14. Marciel
15. Javier
16. Alcala
17. Baddoo
18. Enlow
19. Wade
20. Miranda

[old nurse]

 

Geez, how old are you, ten? 

 

Heck, I remember a time when Doug Deeds made the top 10 and the best we could do was WISH he was abysmal due to injury.

The experts did not put Deeds  in a top 10 http://www.startribune.com/a-look-back-prospect-lists/111022994/

[AZTwin]

The experts did not put Deeds in a top 10 http://www.startribune.com/a-look-back-prospect-lists/111022994/

Oh man I remember really think Alexander Smit would be special. And was intrigued by Juan Portes. A few of the other guys I don’t remember. Brings me back though

[DocBauer]

The TD staff has put together a fine list. The prospect depth is remarkable.

 

For me, the most surprising story of the first half has been the AAA prospects.

• The 40th prospect, Sean Poppen, has two major league pitches. He'll get plenty of MLB chances as a RP before his career is over.
• JDavis is having a breakout type of year for a lower-ranked prospect. He could be a viable backup OF next season. He could be AAAA too, but his outlook is a lot brighter than it was in April.
• Littell can throw 96 out of the bullpen. Didn't see that coming.
• Arraez could end up an everyday 2B before his career is done (50 FV).
• Thorpe looked good in his first start. Not a lot of power but he can pitch.
• Rooker has scary power and he's getting to it.

That's a lot of positive results from what is arguably the weakest part of the Twins system.

Funny how some old, largely forgotten, names of some past prospects have been brought up. But in all seriousness, and no slight meant to anyone, there are guys like David in the 30 range that would have been top 10-15 just a few years ago.

 

Then you look at a guy like Poppen, who it could be argued is too low, having a fine season and flashed some legitimate MLB stuff in his cup of coffee at the bottom of the list!

 

Two other things that strike me are:

 

1] Despite graduating so much talent to the Twins the past 3-4 seasons, the system is not only NOT depleted, but even deeper and stronger.

 

2] Interesting how many guys on this list have been added just in the past couple of years. Not only that, with juries still out of course, several acquired via trade.

 

Absolutely ammunition for the future of the Twins, but ammo for decent trade options as well. And we sure cant keep them all.

[DocBauer]

Oh, Deeds was a thing, but I prolly should have referenced David Winfree instead to refute the notion of salad days of the past compared to this list. Winfree checked in at #7 on Seth's list in 2007. And probably earned his spot! On second thought, maybe Trent Oeltjen at #9 and Winnie should have swapped spots.

Wow, I had forgotten both those names. Thought Winfree would hit his way on to the club and maybe develop a little more power. Wasn't Oeltjen comparable to Rich Becker? The memory sometimes fades.

[DocBauer]

Maybe it's bad memory/cluttered head or personal optimism/hyperbole, but I don't remember this many good arms in the system since the early and mid 80's. [Yes I'm dating myself some]. Not to bring up bad memories, but back then we had Bumgarner, Gasser, Nivens, Sontag, Banks, Newman and Pittman.

 

Names ring a bell?

 

NOT trying to lay down a curse, as pretty much all those guys flamed out for various reasons, but the depth of good looking arms in the system is the best I have seen in 30 years!

[bird]

 

Wow, I had forgotten both those names. Thought Winfree would hit his way on to the club and maybe develop a little more power. Wasn't Oeltjen comparable to Rich Becker? The memory sometimes fades.

 

Yeah, I get a kick out of looking back at the names.

 

My original "Deeds" response was mostly meant to inject some fun nostalgia into things, but secondarily to question any thoughts of a time where Kubel, Bartlett, Baker, Crain, et al could be thought of as the "salad days" of the system.

 

There may be an equal number of flame-outs on this 2019 list as we can count on lists from 2005-6-7, but the difference is where comparable names show up in the rankings.

 

To illustrate a point, let's theoretically equate some names:

 

Garrett Jones, our 5th best prospect in 2005? Was he that much of a better prospect than 2019's #39 guy Zander Wiel?

 

Alex Romero at #7 in 2006. Higher ceiling than #26 Celestino?

 

#7 David Winfree versus #35 Jaylin Davis?

 

#9 Trent Oeltjen compared to #36 Gabriel Maciel?

 

#20 Juan Portes and #27 Luke Raley?

 

2019 may or may not be the salad days, I don't know, but two things seem evident to me. The first is that even if all the 2019 guys listed above fail, a better prospect is occupying the slots at #5, #7, #9, and #20 here in 2019. And second, I'm quite confident that the NEXT 40 names we could mention here in 2019 are more promising than what we'd be looking at in a similar list of names from 2007.

 

Oh, and Doug Deeds? If you go out to B-Ref and read his Wiki profile, you'll see that Seth had him on the radar for good reason. It's also instructive, because we tend to get overly excited with stats like what Deeds put up. 

 

It really is an impressively deep system.

[Faucet]

Are we really going to ignore the fact that Jaylin Davis might be the best OF prospect among the group?

 

[caninatl04]

First, thank you all for the time and thought you put into this list.

 

Yes, there is zero doubt that the Twins have the best A+ and below minor league system.  Arguably, the best AA and below system.

 

But, I think, and this very moment, we are looking at the apex of the system for the foreseeable future.  I think we all expect to lose 2 or 3 top prospects between now nd July 31st.  And (hopefully) The Twins will not have high draft picks over the next few years.

 

So, let's put this Top 30 in the vault.