Article: CHW 4, MIN 3: Twins Lose Rubber Match to White Sox After Another Long Day of Baseball

[Matthew Lenz]

The Twins were part of yet another five-plus hour day of baseball, but this time it wasn’t because of extra innings. Despite the White Sox ace being cut short due to a three-hour rain delay the Twins couldn’t take the Sunday rubber match losing just their seventh series on the season.Box Score

Thorpe: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 67.1% strikes (47 of 70 pitches)

Bullpen (Duffey, Morin, Magill) : 3.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

 

Home Runs: Nelson Cruz (16)

Multi-Hit Games: None

 

Top 3 WPA: Garver (.222), Magill (.073), Cruz (.042)

Bottom 3 WPA: Gonzalez (-.215), Buxton (-.136), Arraez (-.115)

 

Lewis Thorpe Debuts

Who knows what the final line for Lewis Thorpe would have looked like if it wasn’t for mother nature ending his debut after five spectacular innings and only 70 pitches. All afternoon Thorpe was dotting the edge of the strike zone with his fastball and slider to the tune of a 20.0% swinging strike rate on those two pitches, which accounted for strike three on six of his seven strikeouts.

 

 

Even on Moncada’s two-run home run he hit the spot Garver gave him, but unfortunately Moncada loves the ball low and away as a left handed hitter where he has slugged .571 in 2019, per Brooks Baseball. Other than that blip, which was really Garver’s blip, Thorpe was lights out showing a mastery of his pitches and allowing the defense to help him any time a runner reached base.

 

Offense Sputters Against All-Star Starter

Lucas Giolito, who has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, was effective and efficient against one of the most potent offenses in baseball allowing only one baserunner and striking out four over five innings. Of course it helped that the starting lineup was missing a few “non all-stars” like Eddie Rosario (IL) and Max Kepler (knee/rest) as well as Miguel Sano (though Sano did come in as a pinch hitter late in the game). Deservedly, Giolito was named an All-Star right as the game was getting back underway.

 

Twins Hit Bullpen Hard But Cannot Overcome Deficit

Many on Twitter viewed the rain delay as a good thing, as it meant the end of the road for Giolito and that proved to be true as the Twins came out hitting the ball hard. Nothing came to fruition in the top of the sixth despite three hard hits, but they were able to put three on the board in the seventh thanks to a Nelson Cruz two-run home run and a Sano pinch-hit RBI single.

 

Unfortunately, in the bottom half of the sixth inning Tyler Duffey got roughed up allowing four consecutive singles and two earned runs before being relieved by Mike Morin who got the last two outs of the innings while stranding two runners. Magill followed Morin in the bottom of the seventh and eighth, striking out three while only allowing one hit and hitting upper-90’s on the radar gun with his fastball, which is an interesting and possibly significantly development. The Twins continued to put good wood on the ball in the eighth and ninth, but were unable to score, specifically with Garver in scoring position with only one out in the final frame.

 

Other tidbits:

 

-Odorizzi was named an All-Star. He will join Jorge Polanco as the only Twins representatives ... for now.

-As mentioned above, Magill’s fastball topped out at 98 miles per hour multiple times today while it has an average velocity of 95.7 miles per hour.

-Buxton's highlight grab in the bottom of the fourth had a xBA (expected batting average) of .670 and a catch probability of five percent.

Postgame With Baldelli

https://twitter.com/...488620444250112

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.

 

Click here to view the article

[Danchat]

Thorpe looked pretty impressive today, I wouldn't be opposed to seeing him again. He ended up with the loss, but Duffey actually lost this one today. Plus we could use a little more clutch hitting from our batters...

[Han Joelo]

I missed what the reason was that had Thorpe starting, but nice job.

 

I guess I'm glad there is such a thing as "WPA," because without looking into the nuances, I would have given Duffey 100% of this loss.  The White Sox must have spent the rain delay doing homework, and not playing Fortnite.  Bummer.

 

Nonetheless, hell of a first half!  The Twins deserve more All-Stars, but I hope this puts a little chip on everyone's shoulders.  He who bats last, bats best.  No wait, he who bats last has a 100% likelihood of being in the World Series.

[Matthew Lenz]

 

I missed what the reason was that had Thorpe starting, but nice job.

 

I guess I'm glad there is such a thing as "WPA," because without looking into the nuances, I would have given Duffey 100% of this loss.  The White Sox must have spent the rain delay doing homework, and not playing Fortnite.  Bummer.

 

Nonetheless, hell of a first half!  The Twins deserve more All-Stars, but I hope this puts a little chip on everyone's shoulders.  He who bats last, bats best.  No wait, he who bats last has a 100% likelihood of being in the World Series.

It was going to be Gibson's start but since he pitched an inning in the 18-inning game they pushed him back and started Thorpe.

 

I was surprised Duffey wasn't the most responsible according to WPA, at least.

Edited July 1, 2019 by Matthew Lenz

[Matthew Lenz]

 

Thorpe looked pretty impressive today, I wouldn't be opposed to seeing him again. He ended up with the loss, but Duffey actually lost this one today. Plus we could use a little more clutch hitting from our batters...

If you're talking solely about today, then sure.  If you're talking as a whole, then you should know that the Twins have the 8th best OPS and wRC+ in "high leverage" situations as defined by FanGraphs.

[Mr. Brooks]

If you're talking solely about today, then sure. If you're talking as a whole, then you should know that the Twins have the 8th best OPS and wRC+ in "high leverage" situations as defined by FanGraphs.

Since those rankings are considerably worse than their overall rankings in those metrics, then wouldn't that make the poster you quoted correct, that they struggle, relatively, in "clutch" situations?

[David HK]

Those day games happen in my middle of the night- so usually miss 'em. But awoke this morning to find the game still going on!

 

Re:this headline--

Tell you what- there are long days at work, long days of crappy weather, but long days of baseball.....?

 

Take it in a heartbeat.

 

How about that Thorpe curve? Holy......!  

[Matthew Lenz]

 

Since those rankings are considerably worse than their overall rankings in those metrics, then wouldn't that make the poster you quoted correct, that they struggle, relatively, in "clutch" situations?

Fair point.  Their OPS is 24 points lower and wRC+ is 5 points lower, comparatively, which doesn't seem like a "struggle" or "considerably worse" to me unless you're really trying to look for a flaw in the most potent offense in MLB history. But nonetheless, if we're splitting hairs, then the OP was correct.

 

Fun tidbit that doesn't necessarily mean anything...the Twins are 24th in the league in the number of "high leverage" plate appearances (266).  Only other competitive team lower is the Yankees (261) and the Diamondbacks are first with (363).

Edited July 1, 2019 by Matthew Lenz

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Fair point.  Their OPS is 24 points lower and wRC+ is 5 points lower, comparatively, which doesn't seem like a "struggle" or "considerably worse" to me unless you're really trying to look for a flaw in the most potent offense in MLB history. But nonetheless, if we're splitting hairs, then the OP was correct.

 

Fun tidbit that doesn't necessarily mean anything...the Twins are 24th in the league in the number of "high leverage" plate appearances (266).  Only other competitive team lower is the Yankees (261) and the Diamondbacks are first with (363).

When you hit a lot of dingers and blow out a lot of games, some metrics tend to get out of whack.

 

See examples Twins, Yankees.

[Tom Froemming]

If you missed the game and have nine minutes to spare, here's every pitch of Thorpe's outing and the entire interview with his parents, which was outstanding:

[FormerMinnasotan]

If you missed the game and have nine minutes to spare, here's every pitch of Thorpe's outing and the entire interview with his parents, which was outstanding:

For his debut Thorpe looked awesome. He had very good control and IMO better command than most who make their MLB debut. I just hope now that with this positive experience in the Bigs that he can go back and start pitching with greater consistency in Rochester so at worst he can earn a September call up.

[Dantes929]

Thorpe paid for walking the guy in front of the home run but the home run he gave up looked like a really good pitch.   I don't know how the guy hit it out to center.   Nice play by Chicago pitcher to get Buxton at third and I will give a little credit to the Sox for the 3 singles in a row.    Duffy apparently didn't have it today but I will call this a good game where Chicago just beat us.  By the way Matthew....... "Even on Moncada’s two-run home run he hit the spot Garver gave him, but unfortunately Moncada loves the ball low and away as a left handed hitter where he has slugged .571 in 2019".    He was batting right handed against Thorpe, a lefty.

[bighat]

For as human as the Twins have looked this June, the Indians have only gained 1.5 games in the standings since June 1st.

 

The Tribe is playing better and with Kluber and a few other starters on the mend, I don't think they're going away. That said, they might not be making a hard charge, either. Consecutive 13-0 losses at Baltimore must have felt like a gut punch, especially when the Twins were treading water. They lost their weekend series against an inferior opponent, just like Minnesota.

 

Miguel Sano put the ball in play and didn't strike out. Cautiously optimistic he's working out of that hole. Buxton had a double (great play by the Sox reliever to nab him at 3rd). And a great catch, glad he's back! Gonzalez is back and working off the rust. Cruz is on absolute fire.

 

Gonna be a tough series in Oakland. The A's have a very good record against teams over .500 and they have been playing great ball, working themselves into the WC picture. They have a lot to play for right now.

[stringer bell]

The week before the All-Star break should be fun. Two pretty good teams from the AL West, one at home and one on the road. 

[Number3]

Twins should be able to go on cruise control/auto pilot for the second half. Just continue to avoid losing streaks. I don't think they have lost 3 in a row yet. Stay loose, stay on an even keel and stay healthy. When the Yankees come to town later this month I do think it should be treated as a mock playoff series because it very well may be.

[terrydactyls]

Yesterday was Sunday, June 30, it was the 83rd game of the year and the Twins hit 1 home run.  The Twins are now 51%  of the way through the season.  Out of 59 years, the current team ranks 15th on the all-time list of Twins' home runs in one season and are on a pace to hit 306 home runs this season..

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The White Sox must have spent the rain delay doing homework, and not playing Fortnite.  Bummer.

Aaron Bummer?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Fair point.  Their OPS is 24 points lower and wRC+ is 5 points lower, comparatively, which doesn't seem like a "struggle" or "considerably worse" to me unless you're really trying to look for a flaw in the most potent offense in MLB history.

You might not want to nitpick other posts too much while simultaneously making the claim that the 2019 Twins have "the most potent offense in MLB history."

[Matthew Lenz]

 

By the way Matthew....... "Even on Moncada’s two-run home run he hit the spot Garver gave him, but unfortunately Moncada loves the ball low and away as a left handed hitter where he has slugged .571 in 2019".    He was batting right handed against Thorpe, a lefty.

Thanks for catching that.  I just misspoke. I was looking at his stats as a RHB.

[Matthew Lenz]

 

You might not want to nitpick other posts too much while simultaneously making the claim that the 2019 Twins have "the most potent offense in MLB history."

The Twins are on pace to destroy the MLB record for home runs in a season by one team by 40...

[by jiminy]

re: "Buxton's highlight grab in the bottom of the fourth had a xBA (expected batting average) of .670 and a catch probability of five percent." 

 

If there is only a 5% chance of a ball being caught, wouldn't the expected batting average be .950? 

 

Or if there is an xBA of .670, shouldn't there be a catch probability of 33%?

 

Those are the only two options, a hit or a catch, right?

 

I'm not being sarcastic, I really just don't understand this.

 

Okay, I just looked it up (duh), and it makes sense now!

 

For those interested (and ignorant, like me):

 

xBA only takes into account exit velocity and launch angle, and how fast the hitter is, but not whether it's hit toward a fielder. 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-batting-average.  

 

Catch probability takes into account how far the fielder has to run, how much time he has to get there, how close he is to a wall, and which direction he has to run.

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/catch-probability. 

 

So you could hit a line drive into the gap, or right at the center fielder, and they would look the same on xBA, but very different on catch probability. Makes sense.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins are on pace to destroy the MLB record for home runs in a season by one team by 40...

Is offensive potency simply a matter of raw HR totals? How many other teams are on pace to break that record (set just last year)?

 

Relative to league, the 1963-1964 Twins were actually better at hitting HR than the 2019 Twins. And of course there's OPS+ and wRC+ for more general offensive performance, and the Twins are doing very well in those categories... but not the best in history.