Should the twins be sellers at the deadline?

[CharlieDee]

You make some good points, but I have to disagree. We should be going "all in" now. The opportunity is here right now, no matter how good anyone else appears to be. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

You make some good points, but I have to disagree. We should be going "all in" now. The opportunity is here right now, no matter how good anyone else appears to be.

 

There is no excuse to sell. None. Take advantage of the banked wins from the first 3 months of the season. There's 4 open spots on the 40. Fill it with people who can help in the playoffs.

The feeling is that to trade for a player who can help down the stretch, someone currently contributing will need to be part of that trade package. That’s what this is about.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The feeling is that to trade for a player who can help down the stretch, someone currently contributing will need to be part of that trade package. That’s what this is about.

 

I guess I don't quite get the logic in a lot of it. I suppose if you could find a taker for Schoop and let Arraez play every day... but that makes me leery, and to be quite honest, I don't think there's much gain there (and there is a downside that's not spoken).

 

Trading Sano... really? That's a bad idea.

 

Only place where you might be able to justify it is if say they pick up a Boyd, Bumgardner, Stroman etc and now have 6 pitchers. I'd rather send Perez to the pen in that scenario, but if they thought that none of their starters would play up there, then yes, trading one of them (since they all have value) might make some sense.. But really... that's an odd one off that really looks like outside the box for the sake of outside the box...

 

I'm with Vanimal and SwainZag on this one... take advantage of those wins and go all in. 2 shut down relievers for sure... If they can get an ace even better. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'm with Vanimal and SwainZag on this one... take advantage of those wins and go all in. 2 shut down relievers for sure... If they can get an ace even better.

 

So then, taking all the 25-man guys off the table, what prospects/money do you think would be needed, for two shut down relievers and maybe an ace to boot?

[ChrisKnutson]

If the FO wants to sell off expendable pieces for more pitching, I’m all for it, but they better save it for the offseason, because last time I checked we’re WS contenders, right??

 

And if we do “sell” in the offseason, I wouldn’t recommend us selling just anyone, only the players that we have competent replacements for (internally/externally), like Cron, Harper, Duffey, and maybe Hildenberger if he’s still worth anything.

[Mr. Brooks]

I hope it's Gibson. Odorizzi is now regressing back to what he's always been, a 500 picture with an era in the low for s rarely goes more than five to six innings a start. Nothing wrong with that at the back end of your rotation, but not the number two starter we were hoping he would be after this year's start to the season.

Gibson is averaging exactly one extra out per start than Odorizzi.

 

I'll give up 1 extra out to keep the guy with the MUCH better ERA and FIP.

[Vanimal46]

So then, taking all the 25-man guys off the table, what prospects/money do you think would be needed, for two shut down relievers and maybe an ace to boot?

Last I read the Twins have a top 10, arguably top 5 minor league system. I'm sure they could cobble something together.

[Vanimal46]

So then, taking all the 25-man guys off the table, what prospects/money do you think would be needed, for two shut down relievers and maybe an ace to boot?

baseballtradevalues.com is a fun resource if you haven't checked it out before. Below are validated trades from that website as potential options:

 

SF Trades: LHP Will Smith Total Value 9.2

MIN Trades: LF/1B Brent Rooker Total Value 9.2

 

I'd do that trade yesterday.

 

TOR trades: RHP Ken Giles Total Value 9.6

MIN Trades: SS Wander Javier (6.6) RHP Blaine Enlow (3.7) Total 10.3

 

Slight overpay. I'd like to switch Gonsalves but since he's on IL I'm trying to be realistic.

 

TEX trades: RHP Chris Martin (0.7 TV)

MIN trades: OF Jaylin Davis (0.7 TV)

 

Trading for the ace as always is going to be tough.

 

If anyone wants to do their own trade proposals it's pretty fun!

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com

[yarnivek1972]

Gibson is averaging exactly one extra out per start than Odorizzi.

 

I'll give up 1 extra out to keep the guy with the MUCH better ERA and FIP.

We apparently have different definitions of “MUCH better”. Gibson’s FIP is 4.06. Odorizzi’s is 3.88. That’s less than .2 difference.

 

 

Also, as was mentioned, they are currently trending in opposite directions. Odorizzi hasn’t completed 6 innings in over a month. Gibson has completed 6 innings in 4 of his last 6 “real” starts (not counting his 1 inning opener start).

 

 

I don’t want to be accused of cherry picking, but in this particular case, it is justified IMO. Keep in mind Gibson was ill over the offseason. His first three starts were essentially extended spring training. He had the one relief appearance and then a one inning “start” earlier this month. You have to remember that when calculating his average start. If you eliminate those, Gibson has gone at least 6 innings in 9 of the other 15 games.

 

 

In 19 starts, Odorizzi has completed 6 innings just 7 times.

 

So, the difference in how deep they are going into games is clearly more than one out.

[Danchat]

 

baseballtradevalues.com is a fun resource if you haven't checked it out before. Below are validated trades from that website as potential options:

SF Trades: LHP Will Smith Total Value 9.2
MIN Trades: LF/1B Brent Rooker Total Value 9.2

I'd do that trade yesterday.

TOR trades: RHP Ken Giles Total Value 9.6
MIN Trades: SS Wander Javier (6.6) RHP Blaine Enlow (3.7) Total 10.3

Slight overpay. I'd like to switch Gonsalves but since he's on IL I'm trying to be realistic.

TEX trades: RHP Chris Martin (0.7 TV)
MIN trades: OF Jaylin Davis (0.7 TV)

Trading for the ace as always is going to be tough.

If anyone wants to do their own trade proposals it's pretty fun!

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com

I would make the Giles and Martin trades, but not the Smith one. I don't like trading Rooker away for 2 months of a reliever, especially with him being so close to the big leagues. I am fine trading Javier away since he's a guy who may need to be a 40 man add and won't be a factor for a few years. 

[Vanimal46]

I would make the Giles and Martin trades, but not the Smith one. I don't like trading Rooker away for 2 months of a reliever, especially with him being so close to the big leagues. I am fine trading Javier away since he's a guy who may need to be a 40 man add and won't be a factor for a few years.

Kirilloff will be in the same boat next year... Maybe Larnach too. I just don't see a spot for Rooker on the MLB roster without injuries taking place.

[Mr. Brooks]

We apparently have different definitions of “MUCH better”. Gibson’s FIP is 4.06. Odorizzi’s is 3.88. That’s less than .2 difference.

 

 

Also, as was mentioned, they are currently trending in opposite directions. Odorizzi hasn’t completed 6 innings in over a month. Gibson has completed 6 innings in 4 of his last 6 “real” starts (not counting his 1 inning opener start).

 

 

I don’t want to be accused of cherry picking, but in this particular case, it is justified IMO. Keep in mind Gibson was ill over the offseason. His first three starts were essentially extended spring training. He had the one relief appearance and then a one inning “start” earlier this month. You have to remember that when calculating his average start. If you eliminate those, Gibson has gone at least 6 innings in 9 of the other 15 games.

 

 

In 19 starts, Odorizzi has completed 6 innings just 7 times.

 

So, the difference in how deep they are going into games is clearly more than one out.

No, it's factually exactly one more out per game. 19 more outs in 19 starts.

We have no idea if it's a "trend", or just the normal up and down nature of a long season.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think out different choices are based on what I see coming. I see two guys headed in opposite directions; Odorizzi getting worse, Gibson better. In his last 7 games, Odo is 3-2, 5.45 ERA, 1.44 WHIP. Less than 5 innings a start. Gibson's last 15 starts, 7-4, 3.71, 1.24 WHIP, 6 innings a start if you take out his 1 inning opener.

Is there a particular reason you chose 7 starts for Odorizzi and 15 for Gibson?

[old nurse]

 

Is there a particular reason you chose 7 starts for Odorizzi and 15 for Gibson?

The numbers look better. over 15 rather than 7

 

[old nurse]

The Twins have been sellers so far, Morin, Mejia. Anybody buy MaGill?

[yarnivek1972]

No, it's factually exactly one more out per game. 19 more outs in 19 starts.

We have no idea if it's a "trend", or just the normal up and down nature of a long season.

Again, because you seem to not be getting this point: Gibson had an INTENTIONAL one inning start just before the break. Even if you count his first three starts, you HAVE to ignore that one. So, Gibson has 103 1/3 IP in 18 starts wheras Odorizzi has 99 IP in 19 starts. That’s still more than one out per start.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Again, because you seem to not be getting this point: Gibson had an INTENTIONAL one inning start just before the break. Even if you count his first three starts, you HAVE to ignore that one. So, Gibson has 103 1/3 IP in 18 starts wheras Odorizzi has 99 IP in 19 starts. That’s still more than one out per start.

And I'm sure this has been covered in previous posts but Gibson started the season ~20 lbs underweight because of E.Coli. You can see a pretty clear trajectory of his starts versus Odorizzi (and I'm not claiming sides here but Gibson has been solid, not great, while Odo was great and then... not so good).

[Pius Jefferson]

Almost would rather the Twins make a couple of trades and miss the playoffs than make the playoffs and lose in four games to Houston or New York.

[gil4]

 

Maybe they can and maybe can't, but since this question is going to be unknowable any time it's asked, I'm curious how you'll identify the hypothetical future Twins team that provides a clear "yes" to this question. They've got the best run differential in the AL by a not-that-small amount. They've got a generous division lead that should allow them to rest key players so they're not cooked in October. And they've got good assets in the system to acquire extra help if they need it. 

 

I understand the importance of picking your moment when your team isn't willing to spend limitlessly, but I also sort of think that if we can't look at this team and say "they should go for it" then we should probably concede we'll never be able to look at a team in (nearly) July and say that.

That '87 team definitely should have been selling at the deadline.

[Mr. Brooks]

To show trend. Gibson has been consistent over time. Odorizzi has been on a downward trend. That trend is more consistent with his career body of work . Odorizzi is a career high 3s to low 4s era, just above .500 pitcher. In 2018 he was 7-10, 4.49, in 2017 he was 10-8, 4.14. The last 7 games are not good and are driving his 2019 stats in the same era direction; better record because the team is better. I think Odorizzi is what he has been in 2017 and 2018, not the #2 starter he was for the first half of the season. Gibson was better last year, although not in 2017, and I think he will better in the second half of this year. That’s why I would rather have Gibson if we’re going to sign one for next year.

Well if we are using career numbers now, Odorizzi has a better career winning percentage and ERA (by a lot) than Gibson does.

4.42 vs. 3.87 ERA.

.492 vs .527 winning%.

[Mr. Brooks]

Again, because you seem to not be getting this point: Gibson had an INTENTIONAL one inning start just before the break. Even if you count his first three starts, you HAVE to ignore that one. So, Gibson has 103 1/3 IP in 18 starts wheras Odorizzi has 99 IP in 19 starts. That’s still more than one out per start.

Sorry, missed the 1 inning start in your previous post.

[Mr. Brooks]

To show trend. Gibson has been consistent over time. Odorizzi has been on a downward trend. That trend is more consistent with his career body of work . Odorizzi is a career high 3s to low 4s era, just above .500 pitcher. In 2018 he was 7-10, 4.49, in 2017 he was 10-8, 4.14. The last 7 games are not good and are driving his 2019 stats in the same era direction; better record because the team is better. I think Odorizzi is what he has been in 2017 and 2018, not the #2 starter he was for the first half of the season. Gibson was better last year, although not in 2017, and I think he will better in the second half of this year. That’s why I would rather have Gibson if we’re going to sign one for next year.

Any statistician attempting to objectively measure a trend would always use the same sample size for both subjects.

 

What do the numbers look like if you use the last 15 starts for both?

[ashbury]

Any statistician attempting to objectively measure a trend would always use the same sample size for both subjects.

 

What do the numbers look like if you use the last 15 starts for both?

In fairness, if the poster's trying to depict a trend, simple apples-to-oranges comparisons may not do the job either. I think his point is that there's been a recent downward trend for one, while the same period and even further back looks steady for the other. While the additional verbiage might help, a different approach than averages might be even better - I just don't know what, maybe a graph?

[howeda7]

 

To show trend. Gibson has been consistent over time. Odorizzi has been on a downward trend. That trend is more consistent with his career body of work . Odorizzi is a career high 3s to low 4s era, just above .500 pitcher. In 2018 he was 7-10, 4.49, in 2017 he was 10-8, 4.14. The last 7 games are not good and are driving his 2019 stats in the same era direction; better record because the team is better. I think Odorizzi is what he has been in 2017 and 2018, not the #2 starter he was for the first half of the season. Gibson was better last year, although not in 2017, and I think he will better in the second half of this year. That’s why I would rather have Gibson if we’re going to sign one for next year.

I agree. I figure Odorizzi is going to cost something in the 3/$45 range and Gibson 3/$36. I'd much rather have Gibson. Even if the cost is the same, I'd still lean Gibson.

[howeda7]

 

baseballtradevalues.com is a fun resource if you haven't checked it out before. Below are validated trades from that website as potential options:

SF Trades: LHP Will Smith Total Value 9.2
MIN Trades: LF/1B Brent Rooker Total Value 9.2

I'd do that trade yesterday.

TOR trades: RHP Ken Giles Total Value 9.6
MIN Trades: SS Wander Javier (6.6) RHP Blaine Enlow (3.7) Total 10.3

Slight overpay. I'd like to switch Gonsalves but since he's on IL I'm trying to be realistic.

TEX trades: RHP Chris Martin (0.7 TV)
MIN trades: OF Jaylin Davis (0.7 TV)

Trading for the ace as always is going to be tough.

If anyone wants to do their own trade proposals it's pretty fun!

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com

Do we really want to take a chance on Giles elbow? If it blows up, he's done for next year too.

[Vanimal46]

Do we really want to take a chance on Giles elbow? If it blows up, he's done for next year too.

Is his elbow a higher risk for injury than any other pitcher out there?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Snap out of it puckstopper1. Keep calm and carry on  I think I can, I think I can, I think I can. We are the little engine that could.

[Bomba2026]

I wish we could sell half of our bullpen to Cleveland! I think our 4 starters are good, but they need to start pitching into the 8th inning like pitchers did back in the day....To pull out a guy who has given up 0-2 runs is not working...I personally like Smeltzer and I think he will be a good pitcher. I'd rather put him in for 2 to 3 innings until he gets more time. I'd rather have a slump in June than September. Go Twins-sweep the Yankees!

[howeda7]

 

Is his elbow a higher risk for injury than any other pitcher out there?

I believe he's had missed time with elbow pain in two different places in the last month. So...yes?

[howeda7]

 

 

Agreed. I think Gibson is the better, more consistent starter. Also, Gibson generally goes at least 6 innings with a chance to go 6+ or 7 innings in a start. Odorizzi does not. 6 innings max, usually 5 or 5+. Huge difference on your bullpen usage. 

After a nice two month mirage, Odorizzi is very much as he was last year. Grind through 5 innings. Throw 100 pitches. 2-3 ER. Not terrible. But not worth the $$.