Should the twins be sellers at the deadline?

[puckstopper1]

The Twins are currently having a terrific season.  They are significantly exceeding most expectations and unless the Indians get very hot and the wheels come off the Twins machine, they should qualify for the playoffs.

 

So why am I going to suggest that the Twins be sellers at the deadline? Here are a few reasons.

 

1) The current make-up their roster.  Twenty % of the current team will be free agents after this season, including 60% of the current starting rotation.  Those numbers go higher if the Twins do not pick up the options on Cruz and Perez.  Thus it is hard to image the Twins re-signing the majority of these players, so there will be holes to fill next season - especially with starting pitching.

 

2) The Twins pipeline for starting pitching looks pretty weak right now.  Three of their top starting pitching prospects - Gonsalvez, Romero and Graterol - have all had troubling seasons - due to injuries or otherwise.  Could Stewart step up?  Possibly.  But it is hard to envision multiple arms from the system stepping into key starting roles next season.

 

3) As great as the Twins have been this season, can they compete in the playoffs?  Can they beat two of the 3 AL "big boys" (Astros, Red Sox and those !$@$@# Yankees) with their current roster?  I know they can (and should) add some pitching at the deadline, but at what cost - especially if those players are rentals?  Trading some high-end prospects for arms that are not only MLB ready, but post season ready AND are not rentals is going to be tough to do.

 

4) If a team - say the Brewers or Cubs - came to the Twins with an offer of two solid MLB ready arms (one starter and one reliever) who are under team control for a year or two who might not be post-season ready, for Gibson or Odorizzi, the Twins should think long and hard about pulling the trigger on this.

 

As much fun as this season has been so far, I certainly hope the twins F.O. does not lose site of the near term.

 

Go Twins!

[drivlikejehu]

This is either good satire or the worst idea ever presented on TD.

[Vanimal46]

No.

 

If the Twins can't contend with the big boys this year? Fold up shop. There won't come a time when they can.

[Doomtints]

Sell off players because the task ahead of them is difficult?  Wouldn't this make things even more difficult?

[70charger]

The Twins should absolutely be sellers. Of their minor league assets.

[MNT1996]

This has got to be a joke

[Han Joelo]

I get where the OP is coming from, but I don’t happen to agree with the proposed plan of action.

 

The Astros are swooning right now and dealing with injuries overall.

 

The Red Sox are hung over.

 

The Yankees are like a roaring bonfire that Cashman keeps throwing more wood and whatever other combustibles he can find on. Something could well go kaboom there.

 

The opportunities don’t get much riper than this. But, buy, buy!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Good post and interesting idea, if a little contrarian—can’t have any of that now, can we?

 

I’d keep Gibson—assuming this team is going to the postseason, I’d want him to make a start. Pineda and Perez wouldn’t have much value and maybe not Odorizzi either, so you are talking about getting minor leaguers in return, or other reclamation projects. The position players are locked in and doing fine. We could live without Sano, but no one is going to offer much. The Twins should be already thinking about picking up the option year on Cruz.

 

But sure, I wouldn’t put the odds too low that someone on the current 25-man is included in a trade.

[Celebrity Weddings!]

 

3) As great as the Twins have been this season, can they compete in the playoffs?  

 

Maybe they can and maybe can't, but since this question is going to be unknowable any time it's asked, I'm curious how you'll identify the hypothetical future Twins team that provides a clear "yes" to this question. They've got the best run differential in the AL by a not-that-small amount. They've got a generous division lead that should allow them to rest key players so they're not cooked in October. And they've got good assets in the system to acquire extra help if they need it. 

 

I understand the importance of picking your moment when your team isn't willing to spend limitlessly, but I also sort of think that if we can't look at this team and say "they should go for it" then we should probably concede we'll never be able to look at a team in (nearly) July and say that.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Maybe they can and maybe can't, but since this question is going to be unknowable any time it's asked, I'm curious how you'll identify the hypothetical future Twins team that provides a clear "yes" to this question. They've got the best run differential in the AL by a not-that-small amount. They've got a generous division lead that should allow them to rest key players so they're not cooked in October. And they've got good assets in the system to acquire extra help if they need it. 

 

I understand the importance of picking your moment when your team isn't willing to spend limitlessly, but I also sort of think that if we can't look at this team and say "they should go for it" then we should probably concede we'll never be able to look at a team in (nearly) July and say that.

i think they can “go for it” and acquire some players who can help in the postseason and beyond, but also maybe part with some players who won’t be around in 2020. I think that’s what the poster was going for.

[bird]

 

This is either good satire or the worst idea ever presented on TD.

 

 

A third possibility: bad satire?

[Celebrity Weddings!]

 

i think they can “go for it” and acquire some players who can help in the postseason and beyond, but also maybe part with some players who won’t be around in 2020. I think that’s what the poster was going for.

 

That makes sense, but it's kind of hard to square with the specific players named. Odorizzi and Gibson are pretty good. And I don't think the more general possibility of a team giving us good players we do need in exchange for the vanishingly few 25-man roster'd players we don't need really requires a four point argument.  

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

They should be sellers, buyers, brokers, intermediaries, facilitators and any other possibility.  Not sure why any option should be dismissed out of hand at this point.

[USAFChief]

"two solid MLB ready arms (one starter and one reliever) who are under team control for a year or two who might not be post-season ready, for Gibson or Odorizzi, the Twins should think long and hard about pulling the trigger on this."

 

What does this even mean?

 

"MLB ready arms who are under team control for a year or two?" What, precisely, do you mean by this? Wouldn't "MLB ready" arms be under team control for 6 years?  I read "MLB ready" as in the minors, but ready for call up. Do you mean pitchers currently in MLB, but with control through 2020? We should give up on 2019, on the idea that pitchers who aren't of any help in 2019 to their current team will be helpful to the Twins in 2020?

 

"might not be post season ready"...what does THAT mean?

 

I'm sorry, I can't even figure out what the OP is proposing.

 

And I guess I don't care. Trading Odorizzi or Gibson this summer is not something the Twins should think about. In any context.

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

That makes sense, but it's kind of hard to square with the specific players named. Odorizzi and Gibson are pretty good. And I don't think the more general possibility of a team giving us good players we do need in exchange for the vanishingly few 25-man roster'd players we don't need really requires a four point argument.

 

Of course they are. Maybe the OP come back and explain further.

[prouster]

The winning record is driving some people batty...

[Riverbrian]

 

The Twins are currently having a terrific season.  They are significantly exceeding most expectations and unless the Indians get very hot and the wheels come off the Twins machine, they should qualify for the playoffs.

 

So why am I going to suggest that the Twins be sellers at the deadline? Here are a few reasons.

 

1) The current make-up their roster.  Twenty % of the current team will be free agents after this season, including 60% of the current starting rotation.  Those numbers go higher if the Twins do not pick up the options on Cruz and Perez.  Thus it is hard to image the Twins re-signing the majority of these players, so there will be holes to fill next season - especially with starting pitching.

 

2) The Twins pipeline for starting pitching looks pretty weak right now.  Three of their top starting pitching prospects - Gonsalvez, Romero and Graterol - have all had troubling seasons - due to injuries or otherwise.  Could Stewart step up?  Possibly.  But it is hard to envision multiple arms from the system stepping into key starting roles next season.

 

3) As great as the Twins have been this season, can they compete in the playoffs?  Can they beat two of the 3 AL "big boys" (Astros, Red Sox and those !$@$@# Yankees) with their current roster?  I know they can (and should) add some pitching at the deadline, but at what cost - especially if those players are rentals?  Trading some high-end prospects for arms that are not only MLB ready, but post season ready AND are not rentals is going to be tough to do.

 

4) If a team - say the Brewers or Cubs - came to the Twins with an offer of two solid MLB ready arms (one starter and one reliever) who are under team control for a year or two who might not be post-season ready, for Gibson or Odorizzi, the Twins should think long and hard about pulling the trigger on this.

 

As much fun as this season has been so far, I certainly hope the twins F.O. does not lose site of the near term.

 

Go Twins!

 

I'm typically a fan of out of the box thinking but I'm going to counter your points in an effort to put it back in the box. 

 

 

 

1. You go with percentage which can look bigger and scarier than what is really happening. I can counter that 20% with "Hey, 80% of this roster is coming back!" The actual total is 5 (3 starters). Here they are by name. Odorizzi, Gibson, Pineda, Schoop and Castro.

 

Let's say we all lose all 5. It's quite possible that the replacements for Schoop and Castro are already on the roster. I think they are. On the mound it's a little more challenging, I doubt we will pick up 3 free agents to fill the spots, but we could sign one free agent, make an off-season trade for another and make a trade this deadline for another. Remember we acquired Odorizzi for our 20th ranked prospect.

 

Saying that we should sell because we will lose 5 guys after the World Series is over, disrespects or ignores the other 20 guys who ARE returning and the 25 guys who will be participating in the playoffs. 

 

2. I would never advocate giving a rookie a roster spot on opening day. When you do that, you commit a roster spot to that rookie and you have no chance to fix it because your depth is no longer depth. Rookie pitchers for 2020 should start in the minors and be depth in case the guys (you trade for or sign) don't work out or get hurt. They will get their chance when injury occurs and that's when we will find out if a disappointing 2019 is a problem for 2020. I have no idea what to expect of Gonsalves, Romero or Graterol in 2020. I also have no idea what to expect of Stewart, Smeltzer, Poppen, Thorpe, Alcala, Duran, Enlow, Balazovic or any other pitcher in the organization... but we got time to find out. 

 

3. I will continually shake my head at this argument. We lose on paper and therefore have no chance so why bother. This argument is made by many and it holds no water historically. There is absolutely no evidence that the best roster on paper wins it all while the weaker teams on paper drift away on a hopeless boat. The team playing the best baseball wins it all. The margins are thin, so thin that if you did a poll on who has the best roster on paper, you would have multiple teams getting votes. Steve Pearce can win the MVP while Mookie Betts hits .210.

 

4. The Twins offense is for real, it's deep with plenty of options... The front office should support this offense in any way possible. The only sensible path to take is augmentation. 

 

However, Yeah, I typically like out of the box thinking and applaud yours.  

[twinsfanstreif]

[twinssporto]

 

No.

If the Twins can't contend with the big boys this year? Fold up shop. There won't come a time when they can.

Amen brother!

[Otto von Ballpark]

They should be sellers, buyers, brokers, intermediaries, facilitators and any other possibility. Not sure why any option should be dismissed out of hand at this point.

Should the Twins be importers/exporters at the deadline?

[twinssporto]

 

Maybe they can and maybe can't, but since this question is going to be unknowable any time it's asked, I'm curious how you'll identify the hypothetical future Twins team that provides a clear "yes" to this question. They've got the best run differential in the AL by a not-that-small amount. They've got a generous division lead that should allow them to rest key players so they're not cooked in October. And they've got good assets in the system to acquire extra help if they need it. 

 

I understand the importance of picking your moment when your team isn't willing to spend limitlessly, but I also sort of think that if we can't look at this team and say "they should go for it" then we should probably concede we'll never be able to look at a team in (nearly) July and say that.

Go for it!  

 

As Meatloaf so accurately sang it: Paradise by the dashboard lights!

 

[a-wan]

 

They should be sellers, buyers, brokers, intermediaries, facilitators and any other possibility.  Not sure why any option should be dismissed out of hand at this point.

 

 

This. If they can improve the team this year and for the future do it. Trade Astudillo for a good reliever, do it.

 

And TC really is looking old, the fur has lost a little luster, he is getting soft around the belly. I think they should also look at getting Gritty from the Flyers as a moral boost too.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is either good satire or the worst idea ever presented on TD.

We agree on something!

[twins_89]

Unless the Twins acquire a clear upgrade to their rotation I don't see any chance of them trading pitching. I could, however, see Schoop getting moved for the right price. He's got some value, is only signed through this season, and there are replacements (Arraez or Gordon) ready. 

[Thrylos]

 

Trade Astudillo for a good reliever, do it.

 

Need to add Duensing Hildenberger to balance that trade.

[Mike Sixel]

Awful idea. How do people expect things to go better next year? Be on pace for 110 wins? People thought Mauer and Morneau would be healthy and great a long time. You can't bank on that in sports. When you have success, you don't punt it away for a future that may never come.

[Highabove]

I do believe there are some who would rather collect prospects then win a world series. 

 

This has been a disappointing year for a few folks in the sell crowd.

[glunn]

 

I'm typically a fan of out of the box thinking but I'm going to counter your points in an effort to put it back in the box. 

 

...

 

However, Yeah, I typically like out of the box thinking and applaud yours.  

This is a classy response, and informative.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Considering that there will be pitchers for sale under control for more than this season... buyers. Not to mention they can QO/extend guys too. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they did that with Odo or Gibson.. heck, if Pineda continues to improve, he may be in that conversation.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Considering that there will be pitchers for sale under control for more than this season... buyers. Not to mention they can QO/extend guys too. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they did that with Odo or Gibson.. heck, if Pineda continues to improve, he may be in that conversation.

If things hold steady, they should QO both Odo and Gibson and leverage one into a three year deal.

 

Very little lost by offering both of those guys ~$18m for a season.