Article: Potential Twins Bullpen Trade Target: Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland

[Matthew Lenz]

It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers has helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence that suggests upgrades are required. Who may be available? Today we're going to look at a Cleveland lefty. No, not that one.Oliver Perez, LHP, 37-years-old

Cleveland Indians ( in AL Central)

Vesting option in 2020 for $2.75M if he reaches 55 games in 2019.

 

2019: 4.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 12.15 K/9, 1.35 BB/9 in 20.o IP

2018: 1.39 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 11.97 K/9, 1.95 BB/9 in 32.1 IP

 

What’s to Like?

This would be a long shot since teams typically don’t make trades within their division and they’re also competing for a Wild Card spot, but Oliver Perez would be a perfect buy-low candidate as his 4.42 ERA doesn’t look pretty.

 

Perez's peripherals would suggest some progression coming his way as opposing hitters' exit velocity, hard hit and barrel rates are all below the league average while his K rate and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) are above the league average, per Statcast. Furthermore, Fangraphs has his FIP in the low threes and his SIERA in the high twos, which gives you an indicator of how poor Cleveland is defensively.

 

Concerns

The vesting option will most likely be met, as he’s already at 28 games. That means he’ll be with the team next year, although $2.75M is not much to quabble over. His four seamer, which he throws 14.5 percent of the time, has been the cause of his inflated numbers as batters are slugging 1.071 off the pitch whereas it was literally .000 in 2018, per Statcast. There hasn’t been a drop in velocity so that’s not a concern, but he has thrown the fastball in the strike zone, and more importantly, in the middle of the strike zone more than last year which could be the reason for hitters success.

 

This is an option that should be cheap if they are available but can still effective pieces and an improvement over the bottom half of our bullpen. Also, I’d like to think that pitch location is something that can be overcome with an adjustment in pitch mechanics or different pitch sequencing.

 

See Also

Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds

John Gant, RHP, Cardinals

Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox

Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets

Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks

Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals

Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres

10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target

 

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[Aerodeliria]

Pass...

[Vanimal46]

Ick.

[TFRazor]

Cleveland might actually pay us to take him off their hands

[USAFChief]

Still a very effective LOOGY. Would be nice to have in the postseason, but tougher to carry during the regular season.

[Tom Froemming]

Perez vs. lefties 2016-19

.213/.260/.325

30.9 K%, 3.9 BB%

 

That could be a helpful piece in a bullpen that only has one lefty at the moment.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd rather aim higher... they are having a special season. Trading prospects for reclamation projects is a bad idea. Get Giles, Smith, etc.... pay the price to get them. 

[USAFChief]

Perez vs. lefties 2016-19

.213/.260/.325

30.9 K%, 3.9 BB%

 

That could be a helpful piece in a bullpen that only has one lefty at the moment.

concur.

[Tom Froemming]

I guess I'm operating under the assumption that the Twins will make two bullpen additions. Who knows if that's how it shakes out, but that's certainly what I'd be aiming for if I was in the front office. I think they need one late-inning, high-leverage guy and another who's more of a specialist, like Perez. If they were to only add one arm, yeah, I'd be very disappointed if that was someone like Perez.

 

But, Perez vs. Will Smith isn't as lopsided a matchup as you'd probably imagine in a lot of respects. Especially since (I'd imagine) the cost to acquire them would be dramatically different.

 

BABIP

.352 Perez

.250 Smith

 

LD%

27.1 Smith

21.4 Perez

 

Hard-hit%

40.7 Smith

35.1 Perez

 

Exit Velocity

87.7 Smith

87.4 Perez

 

Barrel%

3.4 Smith

3.5 Perez

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I guess I'm operating under the assumption that the Twins will make two bullpen additions. Who knows if that's how it shakes out, but that's certainly what I'd be aiming for if I was in the front office. I think they need one late-inning, high-leverage guy and another who's more of a specialist, like Perez. If they were to only add one arm, yeah, I'd be very disappointed if that was someone like Perez.

 

But, Perez vs. Will Smith isn't as lopsided a matchup as you'd probably imagine in a lot of respects. Especially since (I'd imagine) the cost to acquire them would be dramatically different.

 

BABIP

.352 Perez

.250 Smith

 

LD%

27.1 Smith

21.4 Perez

 

Hard-hit%

40.7 Smith

35.1 Perez

 

Exit Velocity

87.7 Smith

87.4 Perez

 

Barrel%

3.4 Smith

3.5 Perez

Interesting... wonder where some of the other top end guys like Giles sit on this... would be a good exercise...

 

That said, I suspect your second pen arm will be one of Pineda or Perez if they can get a playoff caliber arm in the rotation. 

[Tom Froemming]

 

That said, I suspect your second pen arm will be one of Pineda or Perez if they can get a playoff caliber arm in the rotation. 

True, but I think in a situation like this it's always wise to just plan for an injury and go get one more guy than you feel like you actually truly need. You wouldn't want somebody to go down in August and not be able to do anything about it.

 

Looks like Giles is on the schedule for later this week, so be on the lookout for that one ...