Jim Bowden (The Athletic) Trade Proposal for Twins

[drivlikejehu]

 

I'm not talking a massive overpay but a slight overpay on a reliever should not hamstring the organization because relievers just don't cost that much.

 

I mean, just look at what the Yankees paid for Encarnacion. If the team targeted a FA reliever, it should cost just one of any number of "decent but whatever" prospects the Twins have in their system (and they have a BUNCH of those guys).

 

And I trust this front office enough to properly evaluate their own prospects while another bad organization overvalues the same prospect.

 

This front office isn't the Astros but after they put together the 2019 squad, it's becoming more apparent they're working on a higher level than a lot of other franchises. It shouldn't be that hard to bamboozle somebody into taking a prospect this front office doesn't care that much about in the first place.

 

The problem is that other organizations have no incentive to go along with your plan here. They will specifically want guys *they* like, not whoever the Twins seem strangely open to dealing away, like when the Dodgers were offering up Jose de Leon far and wide.

 

The Twins for sure are having conversations. They just can't dictate the timeline, unless the target is a salary dump. They also have no need to do so. 

[USAFChief]

This is exactly right. Graterol is a massive over pay for Bumgarner, even 1 for 1.

 

Gordon and Cave/Wade sounds about right to me.

 

Happ cost the Yankees Drury and McKinney.

if Graterol is a "massive" overpay, then forget about getting meaningful pitching help.

 

A package of Graterol and Gordon for Mad Bum and Smith is very reasonable.

[bighat]

Two guys who have never stepped on an MLB field for BumG and Smith? I'd do that trade in a heartbeat.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The problem is that other organizations have no incentive to go along with your plan here. They will specifically want guys *they* like, not whoever the Twins seem strangely open to dealing away, like when the Dodgers were offering up Jose de Leon far and wide.

 

The Twins for sure are having conversations. They just can't dictate the timeline, unless the target is a salary dump. They also have no need to do so. 

What you're talking about and what I'm talking about aren't necessarily different. The Twins have "their guys" and opposing GMs have "their guys".

 

Those lists are not going to be even close to 100% consistent on grading levels.

[Mike Sixel]

If one guy not working out means you're in trouble, you're already in trouble.

He's one of what I assume are several options, but yes, the rotation is at best suspect next year. Without him? Who is coming from the minors next year?

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Yankee just trade a 19-year old pitching prospect in the Gulf Coast League and got the American League home run leader, Edwin Encarnacion from Seattle. Time for Falvine to get moving.

HRs are probably a bit easier to acquire in 2019 than pitching.

 

No surprise that Seattle is still trading aggressively. Too bad they don't have much desirable pitching right now...

[Aerodeliria]

How about Cave/Raley and Gordon? They need outfield help and we have outfielders; we could even add another player of potential from lower in the ranks. We need pitching and let's be honest, the Twins are good, but they are going to have problems in the playoffs facing either the Yankees or the Astros as it stand now. Besides, one of those teams will probably get one of both of the players being discussed, so even though this sounds like an inane argument, preventing one of those teams from getting these players is also a reason to go after them, but I wouldn't put Graterol in the package.

[Twins33]

I have zero issue trading Graterol, but would strongly prefer it to be for someone who's not a rental. I'm not a big Bumgarner guy either. He's a 3/4 on this team. I want them to aim higher than that.

[Guest]

 

I have zero issue trading Graterol, but would strongly prefer it to be for someone who's not a rental. I'm not a big Bumgarner guy either. He's a 3/4 on this team. I want them to aim higher than that.

Bumgarner would not be obtained to be a 3/4 on this team. He would be obtained to be 1/2 in the postseason, where he has been very successful in the past. He's the one guy on the market who you would go get if you're willing to almost set aside the regular season. You get him because you want him getting at least two starts in a postseason series.

[Vanimal46]

Bumgarner would not be obtained to be a 3/4 on this team. He would be obtained to be 1/2 in the postseason, where he has been very successful in the past. He's the one guy on the market who you would go get if you're willing to almost set aside the regular season. You get him because you want him getting at least two starts in a postseason series.

His impeccable post season resume is why I'm still very interested in him. 2.11 post season ERA would make me feel very comfortable trusting him to start 2+ games in a series.

[Steve Lein]

 

 

With regard to the Twins, he suggested sending Brusdar Graterol and Nick Gordon to the Giants for Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith.

 

 

I don't think I'm giving up Graterol for rental players, but also feel those two names on their own would get a yes from the Giants pretty quickly (assuming Graterol's health) given what I consider the market has been the past few seasons for rental type players.

 

What I've proposed elsewhere was someone like Yunior Severino (based on his current TD prospect ranking of #15) for Smith (Edwar Colina is an alternate name around #15 in my own list), and Brent Rooker for MadBum. If you're putting them both in one package I'd be willing to add in lotto ticket guy at the backend of my top 20, which to throw a name out from my own list would be someone like Akil Baddoo, Luis Arraez, or Lewin Diaz.

 

I don't think I'm going into my top 5 for a rental player, and I don't think the market says that's what it should take.

 

We start talking to the Mets about a starter nicknamed Thor or who's last name is DeGrom, then every guy in the system is in play.

[Twins33]

Bumgarner would not be obtained to be a 3/4 on this team. He would be obtained to be 1/2 in the postseason, where he has been very successful in the past. He's the one guy on the market who you would go get if you're willing to almost set aside the regular season. You get him because you want him getting at least two starts in a postseason series.

Thats what you'd want him to be, but that may not be who he is anymore. Who are you pushing out of the 1/2 for him? Berrios or Odo? Shouldn't be Berrios, and so far, shouldn't be Odo either. If Odo can't keep this up and regressed hard then sure Bumgarner would be the 2. I don't think Odo is going to regress so hard that that's going to happen.

 

Bumgarner has been the "NL Kyle Gibson" since 2017. If he was 2014 to 2016 Bumgarner then I'd have zero issues, but he hasn't been that guy in a long time. Maybe he just needs a tweak and it can revert him back to that guy but I'm not counting on it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What I've proposed elsewhere was someone like Yunior Severino (based on his current TD prospect ranking of #15) for Smith (Edwar Colina is an alternate name around #15 in my own list), and Brent Rooker for MadBum. If you're putting them both in one package I'd be willing to add in lotto ticket guy at the backend of my top 20, which to throw a name out from my own list would be someone like Akil Baddoo, Luis Arraez, or Lewin Diaz.

My vibe off Rooker is that he's not going to bring much value in trade. I'd be shocked if he brought a starter like Bumgarner or a reliever like Smith on his own. He's not necessarily a bad player, but his profile is decidedly one that shouldn't require a notable investment of resources for a team to acquire, not even a good rental player.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't think I'm giving up Graterol for rental players, but also feel those two names on their own would get a yes from the Giants pretty quickly (assuming Graterol's health) given what I consider the market has been the past few seasons for rental type players.

I think that's the key -- if you really want to acquire those guys, and perhaps soon, then you may have to pay a premium. Graterol with some lingering concern about his shoulder might be a fairly appropriate premium.

 

But, with our lead and looking for potentially better targets (guys controlled beyond 2019), we may not need to get Bumgarner and Smith today.

[Steve Lein]

 

My vibe off Rooker is that he's not going to bring much value in trade. I'd be shocked if he brought a starter like Bumgarner or a reliever like Smith on his own. He's not necessarily a bad player, but his profile is decidedly one that shouldn't require a notable investment of resources for a team to acquire, not even a good rental player.

 

That may be true, but he's showing a ton of good stuff right now (OPS over 1.000 in June with his OBP higher than his SLG).

 

I'd be willing to change that name to Trevor Larnach as well if that's a better piece for the Giants.

[SomeGuy]

 

Bumgarner would not be obtained to be a 3/4 on this team. He would be obtained to be 1/2 in the postseason, where he has been very successful in the past. He's the one guy on the market who you would go get if you're willing to almost set aside the regular season. You get him because you want him getting at least two starts in a postseason series.

He has been successful in past postseasons but his last postseason was 2016.  That was before this slow decline had begun. I would not be comfortable saying he will replicate that same postseason success this season.

 

2016 2.74 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 3.54 xFIP, 3.36 SIERA

2017 3.32 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 4.07 xFIP, 3.94 SIERA

2018 3.26 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 4.32 xFIP, 4.42 SIERA

2019 3.87 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, 4.09 SIERA

 

 

[Steve Lein]

 

I think that's the key -- if you really want to acquire those guys, and perhaps soon, then you may have to pay a premium. Graterol with some lingering concern about his shoulder might be a fairly appropriate premium.

 

But, with our lead and looking for potentially better targets (guys controlled beyond 2019), we may not need to get Bumgarner and Smith today.

 

Really what my comment is saying there is that I think Graterol leading any offer for this is above that premium, and why I think the Giants would say yes.

 

As I've mentioned and others have concurred, I'm not trading the 'blue chip' elite guys for a rental. I don't care if they're Sandy Koufax. The Twins have 1 starter under contract for 2019, so it's a terrible use of the resource capital you have available.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That may be true, but he's showing a ton of good stuff right now (OPS over 1.000 in June with his OBP higher than his SLG).

 

I'd be willing to change that name to Trevor Larnach as well if that's a better piece for the Giants.

OBP higher than SLG is a good thing for Rooker? I know, his OBP is really good in June, but his ISO is poor for the month. Rooker has a BABIP of .581 in June too.

 

I'd peg Larnach as significantly better in trade value, especially if he goes to AA soon and keeps hitting. Fangraphs has him at 50 FV, versus Rooker's 40+, which feels about right to me. Rooker's not valueless, but he's at a level where I think other clubs would rather acquire other guys, even ones with similar rankings.

[Riverbrian]

 

Really what my comment is saying there is that I think Graterol leading any offer for this is above that premium, and why I think the Giants would say yes.

 

As I've mentioned and others have concurred, I'm not trading the 'blue chip' elite guys for a rental. I don't care if they're Sandy Koufax. The Twins have 1 starter under contract for 2019, it's a terrible use of the resources you have available.

 

Yep... I'm on the same page in the playbook. 

 

Bumgarner costs us Graterol. Plus... We will have to trade for an arm in 2019 because we won't be signing 3 FA's to fill the abandoned rotation spots. So now you've added Kiriloff to get a quality arm for 2020.

 

The end result is Graterol and Kiriloff potentially for one roster spot when Graterol plus a player or two from the next tier took care of both this year and next. 

 

 

[Steve Lein]

 

I'd peg Larnach as significantly better in trade value, especially if he goes to AA soon and keeps hitting. Fangraphs has him at 50 FV, versus Rooker's 40+, which feels about right to me. Rooker's not valueless, but he's at a level where I think other clubs would rather acquire other guys, even ones with similar rankings.

 

Then I'll say the Twins offer Trevor Larnach and Nick Gordon and lets call it a done deal

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As I've mentioned and others have concurred, I'm not trading the 'blue chip' elite guys for a rental. I don't care if they're Sandy Koufax. The Twins have 1 starter under contract for 2019, so it's a terrible use of the resource capital you have available.

What if it's rental or nothing, in terms of SP?

 

Also, not all "blue chips" are equal. Graterol was like a #50 overall prospect and that was before his shoulder shutdown.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Then I'll say the Twins offer Trevor Larnach and Nick Gordon and lets call it a done deal

I could see that as tempting to the Giants, for sure!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't think I'm giving up Graterol for rental players, but also feel those two names on their own would get a yes from the Giants pretty quickly (assuming Graterol's health) given what I consider the market has been the past few seasons for rental type players.

 

What I've proposed elsewhere was someone like Yunior Severino (based on his current TD prospect ranking of #15) for Smith (Edwar Colina is an alternate name around #15 in my own list), and Brent Rooker for MadBum. If you're putting them both in one package I'd be willing to add in lotto ticket guy at the backend of my top 20, which to throw a name out from my own list would be someone like Akil Baddoo, Luis Arraez, or Lewin Diaz.

 

I don't think I'm going into my top 5 for a rental player, and I don't think the market says that's what it should take.

 

We start talking to the Mets about a starter nicknamed Thor or who's last name is DeGrom, then every guy in the system is in play.

My take exactly. Gordon AND Graterol should net you a pitcher with at least one year of control, not two rentals.

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, MLBTR just published their top 50 trade candidates:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/06/top-50-trade-candidates-2019-mlb-trade-deadline.html

 

The controllable SP are Stroman (through 2020), Boyd (through 2022), Duffy (through 2021), and Samardzija (through 2020).

 

Boyd stands out, but the others, given their salaries and somewhat limited control beyond 2019, I don't see them as a huge step up from rental SP.

[jorgenswest]

Someone will pay up for Bumgarner.

 

If it is not the Twins I guess we can celebrate that we will still have a top 10 system as we match up Perez against Bumgarner and the Yankees in the post season.

[Steve Lein]

 

What if it's rental or nothing, in terms of SP?

 

Also, not all "blue chips" are equal. Graterol was like a #50 overall prospect and that was before his shoulder shutdown.

 

Well, the price for Chris Archer (whom I think is overrated) was Tyler Glasnow (about a #50 prospect at the time after his MLB struggles), Austin Meadows (same), and Shane Baz (borderline top 100).

 

I think the Twins have plenty of ammo for a package equivalent or better than that, and Graterol is in that same headlining range.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins have 1 starter under contract for 2019, so it's a terrible use of the resource capital you have available.

I'm not sure who you count as "under contract" but we have team control on 2 of our current rotation, Berrios and Perez, and of course our current "6th starter" Smeltzer and any other minor leaguers.

 

Also, judging by recent effects of the qualifying offer, I think it's safe to assume we will re-sign one of Gibson or Odorizzi for 2020 and possibly beyond (and possibly both?). (Pineda could probably be retained for something like his 2019 cost too, although it's up for debate whether we should want to.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well, the price for Chris Archer (whom I think is overrated) was Tyler Glasnow (about a #50 prospect at the time after his MLB struggles), Austin Meadows (same), and Shane Baz (borderline top 100).

 

I think the Twins have plenty of ammo for a package equivalent or better than that, and Graterol is in that same headlining range.

But is an overrated Archer really any better than a rental like Bumgarner? And who is the 2019 version of Archer? And will their teams only trade them if they too think they are overrated (as the 2018 Rays likely thought of Archer)?

 

Take a look at that MLBTR top 50 link I shared above. If the Tigers don't make Boyd available (or don't deal him within the division to the Twins), the "non-rental" SP market might essentially boil down to Stroman, who only has 1 year of control left at $10+ mil and has an "over-rated" argument as well.

[Steve Lein]

 

I'm not sure who you count as "under contract" but we have team control on 2 of our current rotation, Berrios and Perez, and of course our current "6th starter" Smeltzer and any other minor leaguers.

 

Also, judging by recent effects of the qualifying offer, I think it's safe to assume we will re-sign one or both of Gibson or Odorizzi for 2020 and possibly beyond. (Pineda could probably be retained for something like his 2019 cost too, although it's up for debate whether we should want to.)

 

Well, if I go by how contracts are defined and who is on the current roster, really they don't have one starting pitcher that is "signed" for 2019.

 

Perez is a team option. That contract isn't "signed" until the Twins pick it up.

 

Berrios is under team control, but really him and all these players are only "signed" for one year. I know Berrios isn't going anywhere so he's the one guy I included as signed for this.

 

We certainly can assume some things, but at this point they're still going to have to fill 4 starting rotation spots next year. Whether that's by resigning Gibson/Odorizzi/Pineda or picking up the option on Perez, they're still going to have holes to fill and you're asking for trouble if it's with the guys in the minor leagues out of the gates.

 

 

[Steve Lein]

 

But is an overrated Archer really any better than a rental like Bumgarner? And who is the 2019 version of Archer? And will their teams only trade them if they too think they are overrated (as the 2018 Rays likely thought of Archer)?

 

Take a look at that MLBTR top 50 link I shared above. If the Tigers don't make Boyd available (or don't deal him within the division to the Twins), the "non-rental" SP market might essentially boil down to Stroman, who only has 1 year of control left at $10+ mil and has an "over-rated" argument as well.

 

It's a fair question. I'd rather have Bumgarner (for less cost) than an Archer (for the cost it took) if he was being traded this year.

 

But the hypothetical Archer (I say overrated as in I wouldn't view or treat him as a #1, more like a #3) would be a better pickup longterm while helping moderately now.

 

I think a Bumgarner pickup gets you that #1 guy for this year, so a high level of help, but that's all your getting.

 

I think Stroman is the Archer of this year.