Article: Here's Why You Don't Need to Freak Out Over the Twins Trading Prospects

[Doomtints]

 

Maybe your definition of "worth much" is unique. 

 

We have a handful of prospects that everyone with a pedigree thinks is extremely vauable: Guys getting 50FV and up grades. Larnach, Graterol, Kirilloff and Royce.

 

We have plenty of prospects that any franchise would absolutely love to have. It's a long list! Javier, Balazovic, Arraez, Duran, Miranda, Cavaco, Severino, Rooker, Thorpe, Urbina, Rortvedt, Enlow, Gordon, Blenkenhorn, Alcala, Gonsalves..

 

We could go on, because many many others fit exactly in the same value category as Jermaine Palacios fit when he was traded for an All Star and Cy Young candidate named Jake Odorizzi.

 

To name a few Palacios-like names: Jeffers, Wade, Walner, Baddoo, Raley, Celestino, Jax, Lewin Diaz, Teng,Moran, Berroa, Canterino, Costello, Rijo, Sands, Leach, Kiersey, Maciel, Mack...

 

These last names are prospects who garner 40FV value grades from FanGraphs, like Palacios did with an exception or two. The Twins have half again more of these 40FV and 45FV prospects than the average club does.

 

Especially collectively, they're worth a lot.

 

OK, some of us are still deluded.

[Minfidel]

 

Most Twins prospects aren't worth much and we are not as deluded as we were during the May/Meyer days. I don't see many players fans would care about being traded off.

I want to know when Jeff Bumgarner and Steve Gasser are finally going to arrive. 

[bird]

 

OK, some of us are still deluded.

 

 

Any chance you might respond to the points made? I don't believe anyone called YOU delusional.

 

This is spite of your statement that "most Twins prospects aren't worth much", which some may think is a delusional point of view. I respectfully questioned your definition and provided facts.

 

Care to support what you said?

Edited June 15, 2019 by birdwatcher

[goulik]

Part of the under stated topic here is the blocked players that will not get a chance here because of the young talent on the MLB team. For position players next year, the only definite openings will be at catcher and 2B and I could see us trying to resign Schoop. Everyone else on the team is either Arb eligible, pre arb, under contract or have options that could exercised. We will likely see a very similar line up next year.

With that in mind, I’d say we should be trading all but two of Gordon, Arraez, Raley, Cave, Kirilloff, Rooker, Wade, Adrianza and Weil. (Yes, I included Kirilloff).

 

Often rebuilding teams are looking for near MLB ready players. There they are. Any pitching prospects we are not ready to give full shots to this or next year should also be trade bait. Jake Reed should be part of that list as well as potentially Romero. Here’s the Rochester line up.

 

http://www.milb.com/roster/index.jsp?sid=t534

 

Make your own list. As noted elsewhere, we signed a large draft class last year and look to be doing the same this year. There’s a lot more prospects in AA and below. AAA prospects are all tradable to me. Even La Tortuga though I’d lean towards keeping him with Castro’s pending Free Agency.

[diehardtwinsfan]

So for fun, looking at the top 15 WAR players for SP this year.

 

Players that may be available:

• 2 players on the Nats (Scherzer and Strassburg) in the top 4. Not quite sure if they are selling, but given their situation, unloading one of those guys might be smart. Both have control. Both have been studs. Both are expensive. I don't know if either will be on the market, but the Nats have some real problems and testing the waters would be smart.
• Boyd, who given where Detroit is in their rebuild, could be on the market. He's got 3 years of control left too and won't come cheap.
• Frankie Montas, which will depend on how Oakland does over the next month. He has 3 years of arb, so I'm guessing unless they are tanking, he stays.
• The Rangers, depending on how they do have two guys Lance Lynn (wait wut?) and Mike Minor. Lynn was just signed to a 3 year deal. Minor has one year left on his.

 

Going nowhere:

• Gioloto (CHW) 
• Ryu (LAD)
• Cole and Verlander (Hou) 
• Morton (Tampa)
• Odorizzi 
• Sale 
• DeGrom, whom the Mets just extended, so I'm guessing won't be available.
• Kendricks (Cubs)

 

So, in summary, I think there's a decent chance that an ace or a 1/2 type gets put on the market. My bet would be Boyd. He's at a premium value right now and the Tigers won't be good in the next 3 years. I think you're paying a blue chipper and some others. I also think that either Oakland or Texas waives the white flag, making Minor and maybe Montas available. 

 

If you move into the top 30 in WAR, there's a few more names that may become available (and I'm too lazy to check the contracts): Grienke, Syndergard, Castillo, Turnbul, Stroman, Ray, and Wheeler. I'm not a huge fan of Stroman, but I think there are plenty of non-Stroman options to get if they want a starter... and well worth the prospect price in most cases.

[goulik]

So for fun, looking at the top 15 WAR players for SP this year.

 

Players that may be available:

 

• 2 players on the Nats (Scherzer and Strassburg) in the top 4. Not quite sure if they are selling, but given their situation, unloading one of those guys might be smart. Both have control. Both have been studs. Both are expensive. I don't know if either will be on the market, but the Nats have some real problems and testing the waters would be smart.
• Boyd, who given where Detroit is in their rebuild, could be on the market. He's got 3 years of control left too and won't come cheap.
• Frankie Montas, which will depend on how Oakland does over the next month. He has 3 years of arb, so I'm guessing unless they are tanking, he stays.
• The Rangers, depending on how they do have two guys Lance Lynn (wait wut?) and Mike Minor. Lynn was just signed to a 3 year deal. Minor has one year left on his.

 

I’d say yes, yes, yes, yes, uh... no on Lynn, and yes.

Relating to Minor though, should we ask for Faribault HS grad Jake Petricka as a throw in?

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

It's wishful thinking to expect Zander Wiel and LaMont Wade, Jr. to fetch you something better than, say, someone's Bryce Harper or Tyler Duffey.

 

I wouldn't mind that, and then I'd flip him for pitching.

 

(I know you meant Ryne )

[old nurse]

 

Most Twins prospects aren't worth much and we are not as deluded as we were during the May/Meyer days. I don't see many players fans would care about being traded off.

Most Twins prospects aren't worth much. True. True for every organization in baseball.  Including Dominican teams every organization has over 6 teams. Most players are not going to sniff a big league team unless they were ball boys in their youth. Fangraphs list 40 some players with a potential to be major league players, Sickels about 70 . There is value in that many players. There is value in a player having some sort of potential.  A team can not trade for another player without having something to trade.

Deluded? We statement. OK

Edited June 16, 2019 by old nurse

[Jham]

Encarnacion to the Bronx for their 27th prospect, a 19yo pitcher plus salary relief. I wonder if this will be the first domino to fall and set the tone for expected deals.

 

It's clear Seattle valued youth, upside, 40 man flex, and salary relief over maximizing prospect return and nearness to the majors.

 

IMO, the twins have done a poor job in recent years in managing the back of the 40 man. Often trading for guys that must be added and shedding very few while losing guys we would have hoped to protect.

 

In the future I'd like to see us advance guys faster, evaluate sooner, trade guys earlier and release gus at all. We can continue to dumpster dive if the player available is an actual upgrade, not just a "he should be on someone's 40" pick up. Better internal management should make those additions easier.

Edited June 16, 2019 by Jham

[Doomtints]

 

Any chance you might respond to the points made? I don't believe anyone called YOU delusional.

 

This is spite of your statement that "most Twins prospects aren't worth much", which some may think is a delusional point of view. I respectfully questioned your definition and provided facts.

 

Care to support what you said?

 

Sure, I will give two points.

 

1) You stated the Twins traded for "Cy Young candidate Odorizzi." The Twins did not trade for a Cy Young candidate. If they had, the Twins would be paying a hell of a lot more than $15M for two years and would have given up a much more important prospect. Odorizzi improved dramatically this year ... and he will be gone next year because the next person WILL be picking up a Cy Young candidate and paying those wages.

 

2) You listed practically every prospect in the Twins system. A full team's worth of awesome prospects. That's simply never happened to anybody.

Edited June 16, 2019 by Doomtints

[mikelink45]

This is one hopeful essay - we have so much minor league talent that the other teams will send us true talent in return.  Not sure I buy that.  I wish I had evaluation from neutral sources.  What are all our players worth?  Who could we realistically get back?

[drivlikejehu]

 

This is one hopeful essay - we have so much minor league talent that the other teams will send us true talent in return.  Not sure I buy that.  I wish I had evaluation from neutral sources.  What are all our players worth?  Who could we realistically get back?

 

Um, posters here are citing neutral sources, such as Fangraphs. May want to rethink this post.

[Tomj14]

Greinke is the the 2017 Verlander, and if the Twins want him, they have another prospects to get him.

 

Heard Glen Perkins on the radio (Saturday morning) and he said Syndergard is the guy to get and I agree with him. It will cost Lewis and some others but the Twins window is this year, next year and maybe the following year and he would be here for all three of those years and in reality Lewis will not be .

 

The Twins minor league system is set up right now to allow them to target somebody and make an offer they can't refuse (will they do that is the question)

 

Somebody mentioned that they Twins wouldn't need to pick Duran next year, and the is exactly the type of guy that teams take in the rule 5, somebody in high A having a good year that has a big arm.

[mikelink45]

 

Um, posters here are citing neutral sources, such as Fangraphs. May want to rethink this post.

This site is fun because so many people who are on it are so well informed.  I do not question that or the ability of the club, but I am still not clear on how other teams view our prospects as trade chips.  What is the formula for trade value on players who have yet to come to the majors?

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

This site is fun because so many people who are on it are so well informed.  I do not question that or the ability of the club, but I am still not clear on how other teams view our prospects as trade chips.  What is the formula for trade value on players who have yet to come to the majors?

 

We have a top 10 minor league system (some would say top 5), so yeah, we have prospects. I think the big lack is that we don't have a ton of blue chippers (3-5 depending on how you look at them). But we have plenty of prospects to make a splash if we want. 

 

Look what the Yankees just gave up to get Encarnacion. We could have beaten that easily if we needed another hitter. We have enough prospects to get an impact starter and impact reliever if we wanted. 

[ashbury]

What is the formula for trade value on players who have yet to come to the majors?

I don't know, but I'm willing to bet it's a secret.

 

 

More constructively, and I forget how analytic your leanings are, but I imagine each team starts with some concept of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) - we can debate the specifics of how that's computed, but wins come from somewhere and to make decisions you have to look at each piece of a roster in that light.

 

If we're talking about run of the mill players, then WAR probably suffices - wins above some mythical level of performance that you could obtain on the waiver wire or other minimum-salary marketplace. But for high-end players, the other team probably is not interested in acquiring two dozen players whose projected WAR adds up to "enough", and instead will focus on something akin to Wins Above Average, which roughly speaking is like subtracting 2 from WAR for a full season. This identifies your difference-makers, and that's what a team like the Mets would be looking for if trading someone like Syndergaard. Most prospects will register with a WAA of zero or below., and will not come up in trade talks except as throw-ins.

 

So my guess is that any "formula" starts with expected or ceiling WAA for several seasons, then applies a fraction multiplier to reflect that prospects flame out a certain percentage of the time, and a different fraction multiplier to reflect that veterans also get hurt or lose their abilities without warning sometimes. Probably there is a fudge factor to reflect character and clubhouse chemistry, injury-proneness from an individual track record, age (improving or declining forecast performance), and of course any existing salary commitments.

 

At some level, I bet that internal computations bring it down to dollars and cents, even for prospects. It costs a certain amount to purchase WAA among free agents, and arbitration sets salaries for other players, so those provide some benchmarks. "Excess value" the veteran player is expected to provide, beyond what the contract calls for in compensation, tells a team whether they can ask a lot in return, or conversely need to pay part of the remaining salary just to move him off their books. Similar calculation is done regarding the team's years of control of a prospect.

 

Altogether I doubt you or I can come up with an actual "formula" that would be meaningful to predict trades. But I think this summarizes how a front office would approach the topic.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Greinke is the the 2017 Verlander, and if the Twins want him, they have another prospects to get him.

Perhaps, although the current Diamondbacks are in a better position than the 2017 Tigers, so they actually have a use for Greinke at the moment and for 2020-2021.

 

 

Heard Glen Perkins on the radio (Saturday morning) and he said Syndergard is the guy to get and I agree with him. It will cost Lewis and some others but the Twins window is this year, next year and maybe the following year and he would be here for all three of those years and in reality Lewis will not be .

That's tricky. The Mets may only be on the edge of the 2019 race right now, and could fall further off soon, but they're really built to win (or at least, try to win) over the next couple years, and Syndergaard -- on modest arbitration salaries -- is a big part of that. I'm not sure how much Lewis or the other top Twins prospects would make up for that -- it would represent a pretty big change of course for the Mets, I would think, so I wouldn't see this as particularly likely, even if the Twins were willing to pony up.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Somebody mentioned that they Twins wouldn't need to pick Duran next year, and the is exactly the type of guy that teams take in the rule 5, somebody in high A having a good year that has a big arm.

Agreed. Especially with MLB rosters expanding to 26 next year, a 45 FV prospect like Duran entering his age-22 season would be a pretty easy Rule 5 pick for a few teams around the league.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

We have a top 10 minor league system (some would say top 5), so yeah, we have prospects. I think the big lack is that we don't have a ton of blue chippers (3-5 depending on how you look at them). But we have plenty of prospects to make a splash if we want. 

 

Look what the Yankees just gave up to get Encarnacion. We could have beaten that easily if we needed another hitter. We have enough prospects to get an impact starter and impact reliever if we wanted. 

On Encarnacion, keep in mind HR hitters are going to be cheaper than good pitchers in this market. And Encarnacion isn't even viewed as capable of everyday 1B duty, further limiting his market. We could have topped that offer if we wanted, but that has little bearing on our quest for pitching.

 

That said, we should still be able to get quality pitchers with our prospect pool. Depending on how you define "impact" players -- if you focused on longer-term impact guys -- our lack of blue-chippers (and the current health/scuffles of a few of our top blue chippers) might complicate that a bit. But for immediate impact guys, we should have no problem paying the prospect price, I would think.

[dbminn]

 

This site is fun because so many people who are on it are so well informed.  I do not question that or the ability of the club, but I am still not clear on how other teams view our prospects as trade chips.  What is the formula for trade value on players who have yet to come to the majors?

 

General value of players has been an ongoing project at the Point of Pittsburgh website. FanGraphs used PoP data to derive a formula for prospect value. It's here, along with a list of values at the end of last season. Lower ranked prospect values are here.

 

The problem with any general valuation is that a team with a chance of winning in the post-season will pay a premium because team revenues increase fast if a team can win playoff series. 

 

The other issue is the Future Value (FV) of the prospects. A young 45 FV player in the lower minors likely has both more upside and risk than an older 45 FV player. For example, Rortvedt and Wade are both ranked as 40 FV. Wade is pretty much at his peak while Rortvedt is still developing. For me, the younger prospect has more value. 

[Tomj14]

 

That said, we should still be able to get quality pitchers with our prospect pool. Depending on how you define "impact" players -- if you focused on longer-term impact guys -- our lack of blue-chippers (and the current health/scuffles of a few of our top blue chippers) might complicate that a bit. But for immediate impact guys, we should have no problem paying the prospect price, I would think.

Question, do the Twins really lack blue-chippers?

Lewis, Kirilloff, Javier, Graterol, Larnach and don't you have to inlcude the 1st round pick this year for now (Cavaco) I would think are blue chippers with Balazovic, Duran and maybe Enlow right behind them.

Are there other systems with this many guys? or are Lewis and Kirilloff the only ones considered blue chippers?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Perhaps, although the current Diamondbacks are in a better position than the 2017 Tigers, so they actually have a use for Greinke at the moment and for 2020-2021.

 

 

That's tricky. The Mets may only be on the edge of the 2019 race right now, and could fall further off soon, but they're really built to win (or at least, try to win) over the next couple years, and Syndergaard -- on modest arbitration salaries -- is a big part of that. I'm not sure how much Lewis or the other top Twins prospects would make up for that -- it would represent a pretty big change of course for the Mets, I would think, so I wouldn't see this as particularly likely, even if the Twins were willing to pony up.

Weren't the Mets openly talking about trading Syndergard this offseason?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Question, do the Twins really lack blue-chippers?

Lewis, Kirilloff, Javier, Graterol, Larnach and don't you have to inlcude the 1st round pick this year for now (Cavaco) I would think are blue chippers with Balazovic, Duran and maybe Enlow right behind them.

Are there other systems with this many guys? or are Lewis and Kirilloff the only ones considered blue chippers?

That will certainly depend on ones' definition of said prospect. Lewis, AK, and Graterol are probably unquestioned (for now). One could argue for several of the others you've mentioned (possibly Blankenhorn too if this break out he's having is for real)… just depends on what other teams think. But if you're talking top 100, it's really just Kirilloff, Lewis, and Graterol for now. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Question, do the Twins really lack blue-chippers?

Lewis, Kirilloff, Javier, Graterol, Larnach and don't you have to inlcude the 1st round pick this year for now (Cavaco) I would think are blue chippers with Balazovic, Duran and maybe Enlow right behind them.

Are there other systems with this many guys? or are Lewis and Kirilloff the only ones considered blue chippers?

Depends how you define "blue chippers" -- I was thinking elite prospects, or at least top 50. Of those, we might be down to Lewis and Kirilloff and both are facing some challenges right now. In the context of acquiring a long-term impact player, that would be important (although the other guys could be in the package too).

[Jham]

On Encarnacion, keep in mind HR hitters are going to be cheaper than good pitchers in this market. And Encarnacion isn't even viewed as capable of everyday 1B duty, further limiting his market. We could have topped that offer if we wanted, but that has little bearing on our quest for pitching.

 

That said, we should still be able to get quality pitchers with our prospect pool. Depending on how you define "impact" players -- if you focused on longer-term impact guys -- our lack of blue-chippers (and the current health/scuffles of a few of our top blue chippers) might complicate that a bit. But for immediate impact guys, we should have no problem paying the prospect price, I would think.

Arguably, Encarnacion would be a bigger upgrade for us than the Yankees. I wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees saw him play the Twins this year and picked him up based on that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Weren't the Mets openly talking about trading Syndergard this offseason?

I wouldn't say openly. There were generic rumor rumblings very early in the offseason, but then this:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/12/mets-brass-on-canodiaz-trade-next-steps.html

 

 

One possibility that has popped up on the rumor mill in recent weeks is a trade involving starter Noah Syndergaard, presumably with intentions of adding multiple youthful assets who could join a still-developing core. The early explorations evidently have not shown promise of resulting in a deal, however, as the Mets now say they are strongly leaning against moving Thor. Per Van Wagenen, only under  “very special circumstances” would he “even consider” trading a pitcher who, at his best, is among the top hurlers in all of baseball.

 

There was also talk of the Mets trying to replace Syndergaard in FA immediately after any deal, which would make a midseason trade especially unlikely.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

On Encarnacion, keep in mind HR hitters are going to be cheaper than good pitchers in this market. And Encarnacion isn't even viewed as capable of everyday 1B duty, further limiting his market. We could have topped that offer if we wanted, but that has little bearing on our quest for pitching.

 

That said, we should still be able to get quality pitchers with our prospect pool. Depending on how you define "impact" players -- if you focused on longer-term impact guys -- our lack of blue-chippers (and the current health/scuffles of a few of our top blue chippers) might complicate that a bit. But for immediate impact guys, we should have no problem paying the prospect price, I would think.

I agree that pitching will cost more than Encarnacion but damn, his price was so low that I don't even know what to think.

[USAFChief]

 

I agree that pitching will cost more than Encarnacion but damn, his price was so low that I don't even know what to think.

Limited market (AL contenders only), Yankees supplied money.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Arguably, Encarnacion would be a bigger upgrade for us than the Yankees.

I don't know about that. Considering 1B defense, it looks as if Cron is actually better than Voit, and the Twins already have an everyday DH in Cruz (as opposed to Stanton for the Yankees, who is also an outfielder).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree that pitching will cost more than Encarnacion but damn, his price was so low that I don't even know what to think.

In addition to what Chief said, the move was made by "Trader Jerry" Dipoto in Seattle.  No surprise he is continuing to deal aggressively! Too bad they don't have pitching...