Article: Here's Why You Don't Need to Freak Out Over the Twins Trading Prospects

[AKTwins]

What do we think it would take to get some of the relief pitcher names? On an mlb trade rumor char I brought up trading Cave for will Smith. San Fran needs outfielders and doesn't want a complete rebuild. The moderator believes it would take more even though smith is a rental, but believed San Fran would be interested in Cave. So maybe Cave and Blackenhorn? Cave and Colina? Cave and Jax?

 

I don't think we go with a top 15 prospect for a rental.

[USAFChief]

But trading for him then means he's part of the rotation today. Wow! Would you look at that rotation with Verlander in it?

not to mention, "wait to make the Verlander trade until the precise moment that it makes the most sense for us" ignores the likelihood that there won't be a Verlander when/if that precise moment arrives.

 

BTW, I wonder how Verlander would have done if handed a 3-0 lead in the first inning if a WC game in Yankee Stadium.

[dbminn]

I'm with most on here - it's time to spend some of the minor league wealth.The Twins have more than a 90% chance of winning the division. If they are going to make a trade, they need to get players who can make an impact in the playoffs. 

 

They need an experienced, high-leverage RP, no doubt. I'd take a #2/#3 SP but nothing less. Adding bullpen depth is okay too - but for me, adding someone for the late innings is the priority.

 

There will be a premium paid for these trades. That's fine. I just hope they trade from depth. The Twins have depth at C, corner OF, 1B and middle IF. If the Twins make a big trade, I'd rather see the prospects from this list:

• Larnach
• Diaz/Rooker
• Rortvedt/Jeffers/Astudillo (I'm a big fan of Rortvedt, so that might cause some emotional damage. I'll get over it.)
• Gordon/Javier/Blankenhorn
• Alcala/Colina/Enlow/Any AAA SP

Than from this list:

• Graterol
• Balazovic
• Kirilloff
• Lewis/Arraez

Arraez and Cave could be needed this year. Once July 30th passes, there will be no options to get another player. You could add Astudillo but the Twins have two solid C and could weather the loss of one. I also think Astudillo is at peak trade value right now. I'd only trade Graterol or Balazovic if the Twins got a SP under control for multiple years in return.

 

How do folks feel about keeping Larnach v. Kirilloff?

[Vanimal46]

not to mention, "wait to make the Verlander trade until the precise moment that it makes the most sense for us" ignores the likelihood that there won't be a Verlander when/if that precise moment arrives.

 

BTW, I wonder how Verlander would have done if handed a 3-0 lead in the first inning if a WC game in Yankee Stadium.

In typical Minnesota sports fashion, there is no Verlander available this season. I'm still a big fan of Mad Bum, but also acknowledge he's not the same pitcher he was 2 years ago.

[Craig Arko]

To be honest, it would never occur to me to freak out about something like this.

[bird]

 

Most Twins prospects aren't worth much and we are not as deluded as we were during the May/Meyer days. I don't see many players fans would care about being traded off.

 

 

Maybe your definition of "worth much" is unique. 

 

We have a handful of prospects that everyone with a pedigree thinks is extremely vauable: Guys getting 50FV and up grades. Larnach, Graterol, Kirilloff and Royce.

 

We have plenty of prospects that any franchise would absolutely love to have. It's a long list! Javier, Balazovic, Arraez, Duran, Miranda, Cavaco, Severino, Rooker, Thorpe, Urbina, Rortvedt, Enlow, Gordon, Blenkenhorn, Alcala, Gonsalves..

 

We could go on, because many many others fit exactly in the same value category as Jermaine Palacios fit when he was traded for an All Star and Cy Young candidate named Jake Odorizzi.

 

To name a few Palacios-like names: Jeffers, Wade, Walner, Baddoo, Raley, Celestino, Jax, Lewin Diaz, Teng,Moran, Berroa, Canterino, Costello, Rijo, Sands, Leach, Kiersey, Maciel, Mack...

 

These last names are prospects who garner 40FV value grades from FanGraphs, like Palacios did with an exception or two. The Twins have half again more of these 40FV and 45FV prospects than the average club does.

 

Especially collectively, they're worth a lot.

[AKTwins]

I'm with most on here - it's time to spend some of the minor league wealth.The Twins have more than a 90% chance of winning the division. If they are going to make a trade, they need to get players who can make an impact in the playoffs.

 

They need an experienced, high-leverage RP, no doubt. I'd take a #2/#3 SP but nothing less. Adding bullpen depth is okay too - but for me, adding someone for the late innings is the priority.

 

There will be a premium paid for these trades. That's fine. I just hope they trade from depth. The Twins have depth at C, corner OF, 1B and middle IF. If the Twins make a big trade, I'd rather see the prospects from this list:

 

• Larnach
• Diaz/Rooker
• Rortvedt/Jeffers/Astudillo (I'm a big fan of Rortvedt, so that might cause some emotional damage. I'll get over it.)
• Gordon/Javier/Blankenhorn
• Alcala/Colina/Enlow/Any AAA SP

Than from this list:

• Graterol
• Balazovic
• Kirilloff
• Lewis/Arraez

Arraez and Cave could be needed this year. Once July 30th passes, there will be no options to get another player. You could add Astudillo but the Twins have two solid C and could weather the loss of one. I also think Astudillo is at peak trade value right now. I'd only trade Graterol or Balazovic if the Twins got a SP under control for multiple years in return.

 

How do folks feel about keeping Larnach v. Kirilloff?

I would out Wade in the fine to trade column, wish he was playing better. I agree with any AAA SP, a rebuilding team will want someone major league ready. I would put Arreaz in there because he is at peak vale and I think we have enough depth at the major league to weather a storm. I suspect Raley has value even with the injury. I would put Celestino and Baboo in the mix. I'd prefer to keep some of the younger pitcher. For a control able I would put Enlow and Jordan on the table.

[DocBauer]

If there's an ace available, the Twins need to explore that opportunity but at the potential cost of Lewis+, I'm hesitant to throw in all the chips on a pitcher like that.

 

Still, the conversation should happen.

 

Thankfully, the Twins' biggest weakness is the bullpen, which also costs the least prospect capital to fix. If they get one very good reliever, I'll be satisfied... but the target should be a very good reliever and a good reliever, in my opinion.

Exactly! Were there a top of the line, #1 SP available you ALWAYS have to listen. You always want to put the best, most complete team together that you can. But when looking at improvements, it's a question of where and how much. If we step out of Twins fan cleats for a second and step back, we would see we have one of the best rotations in MLB and a very good top 3. How much does another SP really augment what we already have?

 

Example: If we could have Goldschmidt tomorrow instead of Cron, how much does that truly move the needle for our chances to win? It would be a very small improvement at best.

 

However, give this team, as is, a couple of the bullpen arms that are being openly discussed here on TD, and the needle moves, the team improves, and so do their chances.

 

To be clear, strengthening a strength is not a bad thing. But strengthening a weakness is a whole lot better way to improve.

[Riverbrian]

 

Or Lewis, Graterol and/or Gordon. A rebuilding team like Detroit would have been looking for prospects, not MLB ready players. The Tigers received 3 prospects, Franklin Perez, Daz Cameron and Jake Rogers ... none who have even seen any major league service yet. And I'm not even sure where those prospects ranked in the Astros system, but it would not have taken either Polanco or Kepler who were NOT prospects at the time of the trade.

 

 

 

SP - Franklin Perez was ranked 3rd in the Astros system in 2016. He was 19 years old in High A at the time of the trade. After the Trade... Perez became the 1st ranked player in the Tigers system.

 

OF- Daz Cameron was ranked 9th in the Astros system in 2016. He was 20 years old playing in Low A at the time of the trade in 2017. After the Trade... Cameron became the 5th ranked player in the Tigers system.

 

C - Jake Rogers was the 11th ranked player in the Astros system in 2016. He was 22 years old playing in High A at the time of the trade. After the trade... Rogers became the 7th ranked player in the Tigers system. 

 

Based solely on rankings and the assumption that the Astros system was better than the Twins system. 

 

A comparable deal for the Twins to acquire Verlander would have been: Gonsalves, Kiriloff and Diaz. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Aerodeliria]

Yeah but no reason to think that everyone is going to develop into a Berrios or a Polanco. I feel like if you’re on a potential championship team you take the trade off of giving up a player that may become a star if it nets you a World Series title. You can try to give up less but front offices aren’t dumb. Sometimes you have to “overpay”, and it’s not really overpaying it’s market value at the time of the trade.

 

Great point!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

In typical Minnesota sports fashion, there is no Verlander available this season. I'm still a big fan of Mad Bum, but also acknowledge he's not the same pitcher he was 2 years ago.

Marcus Stroman isn't far off where Verlander was in Detroit two years ago.

 

Let's not forget that Verlander was a 34 year old "good" pitcher back in 2017. He wasn't the dominant force he was in his prime or is today. The Astros worked some of their trademark magic on him after the trade.

[USAFChief]

Marcus Stroman isn't far off where Verlander was in Detroit two years ago.

In that they're both males?

[DocBauer]

Maybe your definition of "worth much" is unique. 

 

We have a handful of prospects that everyone with a pedigree thinks is extremely vauable: Guys getting 50FV and up grades. Larnach, Graterol, Kirilloff and Royce.

 

We have plenty of prospects that any franchise would absolutely love to have. It's a long list! Javier, Balazovic, Arraez, Duran, Miranda, Cavaco, Severino, Rooker, Thorpe, Urbina, Rortvedt, Enlow, Gordon, Blenkenhorn, Alcala, Gonsalves..

 

We could go on, because many many others fit exactly in the same value category as Jermaine Palacios fit when he was traded for an All Star and Cy Young candidate named Jake Odorizzi.

 

To name a few Palacios-like names: Jeffers, Wade, Walner, Baddoo, Raley, Celestino, Jax, Lewin Diaz, Teng,Moran, Berroa, Canterino, Costello, Rijo, Sands, Leach, Kiersey, Maciel, Mack...

 

These last names are prospects who garner 40FV value grades from FanGraphs, like Palacios did with an exception or two. The Twins have half again more of these 40FV and 45FV prospects than the average club does.

 

Especially collectively, they're worth a lot.

Great post!

 

Unless we are talking about an honest to goodness top of the rotation #1SP, I believe there is a list of about 5-6 names you put on an untouchable list. After that, you still have a good 20+ names that are viable, quality prospects most any team would love to have. Plenty of opportunity to deepen and improve the bullpen.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

In that they're both males?

Was editing my post to add this:

Let's not forget that Verlander was a 34 year old "good" pitcher back in 2017. He wasn't the dominant force he was in his prime or is today. The Astros worked some of their trademark magic on him after the trade.

 

Verlander's ERA leadup to the trade in Detroit (2014-2017): 4.54, 3.38, 3.04, 3.82

 

Verlander's ERA in Houston, a bandbox of a park (2017-present): 1.06, 2.52, 2.41

[dbminn]

 

I would out Wade in the fine to trade column, wish he was playing better. I agree with any AAA SP, a rebuilding team will want someone major league ready. I would put Arreaz in there because he is at peak vale and I think we have enough depth at the major league to weather a storm. I suspect Raley has value even with the injury. I would put Celestino and Baboo in the mix. I'd prefer to keep some of the younger pitcher. For a control able I would put Enlow and Jordan on the table.

 

I agree about the players I didn't mention. I'd trade any of them. I'll respectfully disagree on Arraez. 

[Squirrel]

 

SP - Franklin Perez was ranked 3rd in the Astros system in 2016. He was 19 years old in High A at the time of the trade. After the Trade... Perez became the 1st ranked player in the Tigers system.

 

OF- Daz Cameron was ranked 9th in the Astros system in 2016. He was 20 years old playing in Low A at the time of the trade in 2017. After the Trade... Cameron became the 5th ranked player in the Tigers system.

 

C - Jake Rogers was the 11th ranked player in the Astros system in 2016. He was 22 years old playing in High A at the time of the trade. After the trade... Rogers became the 7th ranked player in the Tigers system. 

 

Based solely on rankings and the assumption that the Astros system was better than the Twins system. 

 

A comparable deal for the Twins to acquire Verlander would have been: Gonsalves, Kiriloff and Diaz. 

And I would have made that trade. That is not a huge give for an ace, imo. But let's not revisit the Verlander trade any longer. It's done and over, and we would still be playing the if game. I was just pointing out to 9/12 that we wouldn't have traded the pieces on our team that are doing well today as they were already major league players and no longer prospects at that time, so we wouldn't be playing without them if we had made a trade for Verlander.

[USAFChief]

Was editing my post to add this:

 

Let's not forget that Verlander was a 34 year old "good" pitcher back in 2017. He wasn't the dominant force he was in his prime or is today. The Astros worked some of their trademark magic on him after the trade.

 

Verlander's ERA leadup to the trade in Detroit (2014-2017): 4.54, 3.38, 3.04, 3.82

 

Verlander's ERA in Houston, a bandbox of a park (2017-present): 1.06, 2.52, 2.41

254 Ks and a 1.01 WHIP in 2016. 176 Ks and a 1.27 WHIP at the time of the trade in 2017. A long history as an ace, with strong recovery from injuries in 2015.

 

Marcus Stroman isnt in the same league as Verlander.

[BattleYourTailOff]

To be honest, it would never occur to me to freak out about something like this.

The days of Terry Ryan created a lot of people who believed every prospect was a sacred gem even though the Twins minor league development/conditioning was not great for many (pitchers especially). Hopefully most of them have come around or at least switched sports.

Edited June 15, 2019 by BattleYourTailOff

[rdehring]

 

If there's an ace available, the Twins need to explore that opportunity but at the potential cost of Lewis+, I'm hesitant to throw in all the chips on a pitcher like that.

 

Still, the conversation should happen.

 

Thankfully, the Twins' biggest weakness is the bullpen, which also costs the least prospect capital to fix. If they get one very good reliever, I'll be satisfied... but the target should be a very good reliever and a good reliever, in my opinion.

Totally agree, Brock.  One shut down reliever with a couple years control, plus one lefty specialist that could be a rental.  All in for the shut down guy and the other shouldn't cost all that much...prospect wise.

[Riverbrian]

 

But let's not revisit the Verlander trade any longer. It's done and over, and we would still be playing the if game.

 

That train may have left the station. 

[Squirrel]

Moderator note: Even though I was complicit, I'm going to remind everyone to stick to topic. Please, let's not revisit the Verlander trade in depth. We've been there, done that, this thread isn't about Verlander, so let's leave it. It's done and over, other than to mention we should be going after that now, and not the shoulda, woulda, coulda disagreements of the past. Also, this is not a thread to discuss what Terry Ryan wouldn't have done. Been there, done that, it's in the past and has no bearing on the current topic.

[rdehring]

 

Was editing my post to add this:

Let's not forget that Verlander was a 34 year old "good" pitcher back in 2017. He wasn't the dominant force he was in his prime or is today. The Astros worked some of their trademark magic on him after the trade.

 

Verlander's ERA leadup to the trade in Detroit (2014-2017): 4.54, 3.38, 3.04, 3.82

 

Verlander's ERA in Houston, a bandbox of a park (2017-present): 1.06, 2.52, 2.41

 

Wasn't any magic from Houston, the difference is he met Kate Upton!!!

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

Most Twins prospects aren't worth much and we are not as deluded as we were during the May/Meyer days. I don't see many players fans would care about being traded off.

Curious to know why we should expect to get a good return if the prospects aren't worth much.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

254 Ks and a 1.01 WHIP in 2016. 176 Ks and a 1.27 WHIP at the time of the trade in 2017. A long history as an ace, with strong recovery from injuries in 2015.

Marcus Stroman isnt in the same league as Verlander.

I really don't want to argue about it. All I'm saying is that if the Twins decide to target a starter this deadline, I hope they are able to do what the Astros did and target a veteran that isn't being tapped for 100% of his potential (because it's basically impossible to argue with Verlander's numbers since going to Houston; he's back into the debate of "best pitcher in baseball' and no longer only a "really good pitcher".

[PDX Twin]

To change the subject slightly (or perhaps to return to the original topic), isn't it next year that rosters expand to 26? If that's the case, then every team will have an extra slot on the MLB roster to "stash" a Rule V pick. It seems like that would make it more likely that a marginal player would be selected, no?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

To change the subject slightly (or perhaps to return to the original topic), isn't it next year that rosters expand to 26? If that's the case, then every team will have an extra slot on the MLB roster to "stash" a Rule V pick. It seems like that would make it more likely that a marginal player would be selected, no?

That's a really good point. Good teams will use that 26th to add productive depth to the roster but I suspect terrible teams like the Royals and Marlins will use that roster spot to store Rule V players.

 

So yeah, I think the Rule V draft will be a lot more hectic and meaningful going forward.

 

Here's a list of the rule changes, BTW.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2019/03/14/mlb-new-rule-changes-roster-3-batter-minimum/3157226002/

[ashbury]

a lot of people who believed every prospect was a sacred gem

Who?

 

This is such a strawman argument.

[old nurse]

The Verlander trade shows that giving up medium prospects does not hurt your team. When Verlander did not immediately say yes to a trade to a team that has 7 current or former all stars on it and a former Cy Young winner that was a legitimate contender there is not much evidence to say he would have accepted a trade to the Twins coming off how many 90 loss seasons playing better than anyone expected. Given the top prospect list from 2017 https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/11/8/13555840/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2017 how many would have been missed in the system? Garver for sure, Likely Kirillloff, maybe on Romero Gonsalves or Thorpe but would not have missed it if one of them was traded at this time.  The trade that was made that the Twins fans here should be mad about would be the Gerrit Cole trade. Near major league ready prospects or brief appearance prospects were traded. Moran has been a league average 3b 

[mlhouse]

 

Probably something similar to what we could have gotten two years prior to that for Jose Berrios and Jorge Polanco.

 

Its your organization's job to have the inside understanding of the relative value.  

[Guest]

Just wanted to take a moment and say, as one who has not spent much time reading comment sections lately, that this has been a really interesting thread to read, even if the diversion regarding Verlander went a bit further than it perhaps should have. It's such an interesting and timely topic right now.

 

Then again, as someone who spends more time watching the Twins' minor leaguers than the big league club, I probably find any topic/discussion that involves prospect value to be really interesting.

 

I love prospects. I love watching them play and I appreciate some unique opportunities I've had to speak with them and, in rare cases, even get to know them a little bit beyond baseball. 

 

But the situation the Twins are in right now does not come around every year... even every decade... some might say not in every generation of Twins fans. Building an almost insurmountable early Division lead that allows the FO to focus pretty much exclusively on assembling a roster geared toward the postseason? And to be in that situation exactly when you also have an above-average level of prospect talent? When does that ever happen... especially in Minnesota?

 

This team needs pitching to make a legitimate run at a World Series Championship. No, you don't give away a top talent for a rental reliever, but there is literally nobody in the minor leagues that should be untouchable for the right return - a return that makes it much more likely that we'll finally get to find out what playing late October-early November baseball outside in Minnesota would be like.

 

I'm anxious to see what this FO is willing to do to make good on their word, in the offseason, when they explained their limited moves with an assurance that, if the team showed itself to be competitive, they would have resources available to augment the roster.