Updated FanGraphs Prospect List

[dbminn]

Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen have updated the FanGraphs Prospect List at THE BOARD!

 

Updates include:

• The removal of players who have graduated to MLB and exceeded IP and AB thresholds.
• The addition of draft picks taken in the top ten rounds.
• The adjustment of future values (FV) of many players, although not in as great a detail as the changes made at the beginning of the season.

Twins updates:

• Royce Lewis moves up to #3 overall, behind Wander Franco and Fernando Tatis, Jr. His elevated status is due to the graduation of several top prospects. The FG scouts do not seem concerned with Lewis's start to 2019. 
• Alex Kirilloff dropping from 60 FV to 55. This seems a bit harsh to me. His 2019 WRC+ had risen to 124 (24% above league average as a hitter) before he was put on the IL. He's still just 21 years old and assigned to AA.
• Luis Arraez was noted in the accompanying article as one of the big risers. He's moved from 12th to 6th in their ranking of Twins prospects.
• Draftee Keoni Kavaco slots in at #8, just behind Jhoan Duran, while Matt Wallner is put at #12, between Jordan Balazovic (he recieved a solid FG upgrade) and Brent Rooker.

Since the update was not a full review, a few lower-rated Twins prospects who have had a good 2019 were not adjusted. Off the top of my head, Rortvedt, Blankenhorn and Diaz are good candidates to rise up the prospect leaderboard. 

 

Discuss among yourselves...

[dbminn]

You can find a list of recent prospect graduates about halfway down this FG page. The list also shows who will be the next to go. Astudillo is the only Twin who has graduated this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

• Alex Kirilloff dropping from 60 FV to 55. This seems a bit harsh to me. His 2019 WRC+ had risen to 124 (24% above league average as a hitter) before he was put on the IL. He's still just 21 years old and assigned to AA.

Well, Kirilloff previously jumped from 50 FV to 60 FV in 2018.

 

My guess is that the current drop is health and/or position related, rather than performance?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Since the update was not a full review, a few lower-rated Twins prospects who have had a good 2019 were not adjusted. Off the top of my head, Rortvedt, Blankenhorn and Diaz are good candidates to rise up the prospect leaderboard. 

Balazovic was adjusted -- he had the same FV preseason as Rortvedt and Blankenhorn. Maybe they just need more data before they adjust those other guys? We're still looking at pretty small samples in 2019.

[MMMordabito]

So Lewis will be #2 after a month or so ... Tatis will lose status

[jkcarew]

 

Well, Kirilloff previously jumped from 50 FV to 60 FV in 2018.

 

My guess is that the current drop is health and/or position related, rather than performance?

Health would seem to make some sense. It's reasonable to think that scouts/evaluators would see material risk in Kirilloff's health track record at this point (including most recent "undisclosed" injury). Perhaps more risk, for instance, than 2 bad months of performance would represent for someone like Lewis.

[Han Joelo]

Nice--always fun to go back and look at their write-ups.  Berroa and the outfielder (Aguilar?) are vague and almost new names to me.

 

AK's FV drop is notable, I guess, if you read their original report, giving him a something% chance of being Joey Votto.  Maybe because he didn't fully explode, and then got hurt, they took him down a notch?

 

Nice to see Miranda hasn't dropped, despite a less than stellar start.

[nicksaviking]

I thought Balazovic would have been higher after seeing him pick up more steam nationally.

 

Pretty surprising about Arraez. He's MLB ready and already had some success. He might be a really attractive trade chip.

[bird]

This is a cursory exercise, but it sure is nice to see player values explode through the roof on the MLB roster with prospect values holding their own or mildly improving.

 

It will be interesting to see what shakes out in the 40-45FV categories. They're going to need teams to assign a high value to more of those 40FV prospects for the FO to make hay at the deadline without undue or high-risk compromise.

 

At first glance through my own lens, it looks like Cleveland has closed the gap quite a bit, and in reality, all three of CWS, Cleveland, and Detroit have decent pipelines of their own. KC not so much still.

[jkcarew]

 

I thought Balazovic would have been higher after seeing him pick up more steam nationally.

 

Pretty surprising about Arraez. He's MLB ready and already had some success. He might be a really attractive trade chip.

Arraez...I know...kind of an 'after the fact' move, right? "Hey, this guy just OPS'd 1000 over a couple of weeks in the majors, we need to bump him up."

 

But nothing's ever changed with him...big hit/on-base tool from day one, and not a lot else. (HR with Twins his only HR in 250 PA this year, average defense, no threat on bases.) But the hit tool trumps all others. And nothing like a little MLB audition to make people take notice of what a .329 career minor league hitter across 1600 PA and six levels looks like.

[dbminn]

 

Well, Kirilloff previously jumped from 50 FV to 60 FV in 2018.

 

My guess is that the current drop is health and/or position related, rather than performance?

 

Probably a little of both. Lewis kept his ranking while not performing well but he's a five-tool athlete. Kirilloff dropped because he relies more on baseball/hitting skills. The FG guys consistently give the athletes the benefit of the doubt when they are young, but require the young skills/corner OF to prove it. 

[dbminn]

 

At first glance through my own lens, it looks like Cleveland has closed the gap quite a bit, and in reality, all three of CWS, Cleveland, and Detroit have decent pipelines of their own. KC not so much still.

 

Detroit has a couple of SP rocketing through the system. Casey Mize has been unhittable at A+ and AA this year (ERA a bit less than 1.00), his first full season as a pro. Matt Manning has been excellent at AA and is only 21 years old. Add them to Matthew Boyd and Spencer Turnbull and Detroit could have a pretty good rotation by the end of next year. Depends on if they trade Boyd, I guess. 

[dbminn]

 

Arraez...I know...kind of an 'after the fact' move, right? "Hey, this guy just OPS'd 1000 over a couple of weeks in the majors, we need to bump him up."

 

But nothing's ever changed with him...big hit/on-base tool from day one, and not a lot else. (HR with Twins his only HR in 250 PA this year, average defense, no threat on bases.) But the hit tool trumps all others. And nothing like a little MLB audition to make people take notice of what a .329 career minor league hitter across 1600 PA and six levels looks like.

 

I've liked Arraez a lot too. What's nice is he's added patience to his repertoire - he's walking more than 10% of the time in 2019. I'd like to see him get a lot of PA next year, getting on base in front of the big hitters. If he can add a few more doubles, he'll be a starter for a while. 

 

IMO, the Twins won't trade him this year. He's their AAA IF depth right now.

[Thrylos]

 

 

Pretty surprising about Arraez. He's MLB ready and already had some success. He might be a really attractive trade chip.

 

Who is playing second for the Twins next season?

[bird]

 

Detroit has a couple of SP rocketing through the system. Casey Mize has been unhittable at A+ and AA this year (ERA a bit less than 1.00), his first full season as a pro. Matt Manning has been excellent at AA and is only 21 years old. Add them to Matthew Boyd and Spencer Turnbull and Detroit could have a pretty good rotation by the end of next year. Depends on if they trade Boyd, I guess. 

 

 

Exactly. Add the fact that CWS will maybe add Kopech and Cease to Giolito (the bloom has come off the rose, at least temporarily, for Rodon and Lopez, whew). This to go along with all their stud position prospects, to which they added #4 overall Vaughn to go with Madrigal, Robert, Jiminez, Moncado...