Tyler Jay Traded to Reds

[drivlikejehu]

 

I think this is understood though.
I think generally the term floor means a player's most likely minimum profile if they actually make it to MLB, not their ABSOLUTE lowest possible profile.

 

Well that "floor" is really the same for everyone, too, 25th man on the roster.

[notoriousgod71]

Fun fact: In 2015, Terry Ryan was a guest speaker at the Class A High School Baseball Tournament banquet right before the draft.

 

My nephew's team was participating and afterwards I pleaded with Terry Ryan to draft "anybody but Tyler Jay."

 

Ryan dismissed me... and drafted Jay a few days later.

[notoriousgod71]

 

Fun fact: In 2015, Terry Ryan was a guest speaker at the Class A High School Baseball Tournament banquet right before the draft.

 

My nephew's team was participating and afterwards I pleaded with Terry Ryan to draft "anybody but Tyler Jay."

 

Ryan dismissed me... and drafted Jay a few days later.

 

 

To be fair, I was clamoring for Carson Fulmer, who has probably turned out worse.

[TheLeviathan]

Cash considerations you say?  That's the perfect tribute to the old regime.

[bunt_vs_the_shift]

I understand the emotional reaction about not getting any value out of the #6 pick overall... That said, Jay is not part of the organizations plans. 

 

Shipping out a bunch of other "Jays" who will never be part of the major league plan, is exactly what they should be doing. 

 

Bank some money (even if it's not much) to spend on some guys who can help now and free up opportunities for guys that are in the plans. 

[nicksaviking]

Decade by decade, that Golden Spikes list became a better weather vane. I was around when the Twins drafted Oddibe McDowell. Oh, and Travis Lee, who refused to sign. No huge loss. Oh, and Jason Varitek, who rejected the Twins out of high school and went to college. Probably even went to classes since he had the brains to turn down the Twins back then.

Yeah Hunter and Varitek in consecutive picks was/would have been pretty impressive.

 

Though, then the Twins might have gone Prior over Mauer seven years later.

 

Also AJ Pierzynski probably never develops so no Nathan/Liriano trade.

 

Wow, I played revisionist history and talked myself OUT of Jason Varitek? Huh, I did not see that coming when I started this post.

[h2oface]

 

More fuel for the argument that maybe focusing on position players at the top of the draft isn't such a crazy idea.

 

Or..... use #1's with a high upside and trade for MLB players right away, before they can turn into what almost all do.........

[Mike Sixel]

 

I understand the emotional reaction about not getting any value out of the #6 pick overall... That said, Jay is not part of the organizations plans. 

 

Shipping out a bunch of other "Jays" who will never be part of the major league plan, is exactly what they should be doing. 

 

Bank some money (even if it's not much) to spend on some guys who can help now and free up opportunities for guys that are in the plans. 

 

I don't think anyone is arguing otherwise, and you are correct. 

[bird]

 

Or..... use #1's with a high upside and trade for MLB players right away, before they can turn into what almost all do.........

Lovely theory. 

 

I understand your point, but believe it's not a pragmatic and workable strategy.

 

Not all #1's turn into trash. Teams don't have an opportunity to draft #1's with high upsides in every draft. Examples abound.

 

We're discussing the Tyler Jay draft, where pundits liked the pick but very much questioned whether Jay, or anyone after him in that draft, projected as a guy with "high upside".

 

Holding onto first-rounders is smart and it often leads to fine results. Eventually.

 

The Twin's roster is jammed full of first round picks, even a few of their own, like Gibson, Buxton, and Berrios. We would have gotten squat in return for those players in a trade "right away" in comparison to the production we're getting now.

 

Trading #1's for MLB players right away? Hmmm. Ask the White Sox if they want the James Shields for Fernando Tatis, Jr. trade back. Ask them if they'd take Sale back and return Moncado to Boston. Or if they want to send Eloy Jiminez and Dylan Cease back to the Cubs for Jose Quintana.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

Bank some money (even if it's not much) to spend on some guys who can help now and free up opportunities for guys that are in the plans. 

I'm not sure ownership has ever made a commitment to use money like that. They are willing to spend less when rebuilding but have never shown any commitment to pushing payroll or using 'saved' money in that manner.

[AlwaysinModeration]

So, I just wasted the past hour reading through past threads on the 2015 draft. Interesting (and humbling) to reread what everyone one (included myself!) said about Jay and the others available.

 

My own comment about Benintendi:

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18293-article-twins-draft-preview-andrew-benintendi/?p=344241

In many ways, Benintendi was another "miss" for me because I didn't foresee the flyball/launch angle/power revolution that was going to overtake baseball.

 

Interesting to read that thread and the Ben Revere comps he was getting.

 

Other draft pick threads from that day:

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18552-article-twins-select-tyler-jay-sixth-overall/

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18540-article-official-twins-daily-draft-day-thread-cheat-sheet/

Interesting reading those threads, thanks for posting. The best, by far, was a comment by a poster named “Captain Hindsight”:

 

“Seems like things are pointing to Jay. Manual, Callis and Mayo all have him as the Twins selection in their final mocks before the draft. I'd find that a highly disappointing selection if it turns out to be true as I'm concerned about how his body and stuff will hold up as a starter. Speaking of which, noticed he was sitting more 91-93 instead of 94-96 in his performance today.”

[twinsfanstreif]

So, I just wasted the past hour reading through past threads on the 2015 draft. Interesting (and humbling) to reread what everyone one (included myself!) said about Jay and the others available. 

 

My own comment about Benintendi:

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18293-article-twins-draft-preview-andrew-benintendi/?p=344241

In many ways, Benintendi was another "miss" for me because I didn't foresee the flyball/launch angle/power revolution that was going to overtake baseball.

 

Interesting to read that thread and the Ben Revere comps he was getting.

 

Other draft pick threads from that day:

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18552-article-twins-select-tyler-jay-sixth-overall/

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18540-article-official-twins-daily-draft-day-thread-cheat-sheet/

I just read through a bunch of those threads and only a few people even mention Benintendi with a user named monkeypaws saying they like him, a few others said they'd be ok with him. I did however find this gem of a comment from me (that I don't remember making)

 

twinsfanstreif

08 June 2015 - 06:42 PM

Jay is pretty much the only guy I would be disappointed with

[bunt_vs_the_shift]

 

I don't think anyone is arguing otherwise, and you are correct. 

 

If you are suggesting I'm slow on the uptake here... You may be correct!

 

If I misread the venting for suggesting a different strategy, then that's my bad. I was just trying to make the point that it doesn't matter where he was drafted. The team has moved on, so no use in Jay taking up space and obstructing another player's development. Take the money. Next man up. 

[bunt_vs_the_shift]

 

I'm not sure ownership has ever made a commitment to use money like that. They are willing to spend less when rebuilding but have never shown any commitment to pushing payroll or using 'saved' money in that manner.

 

Respectfully disagree. It's impossible to attribute where specific money comes from for specific moves. You can say that they took certain money that came off the books from Player A and turned it into Player B. But how do you know that this player flipping money doesn't get invested into the analytics department, or the technology in Fort Myers, or something else of value... Sure, it may have gone towards a fancy cappuccino machine for Jim Pohlad, but I guess I don't really care because the Twins are 43-21 so I'm not going to bust their chops about trading Tyler Jay for cash. I'd like to think that cash went into the war chest, but who knows. Either way, I hope they turn it into some pitching!

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

It's okay to call this pick a major bust, because it is...

[bird]

 

It's okay to call this pick a major bust, because it is...

 

 

Couldn't agree more, Vanimal, and it's okay to admit it as long as it's not part of a false argument that the Twins are particularly good at busting draft choices.

[puckstopper1]

Too bad.  Had high hopes for Jay when he was drafted.

 

So far his career is more like AWA Jobber Kenny "the sod buster" Jay than former all star pitcher Joey Jay...

[nicksaviking]

 

Couldn't agree more, Vanimal, and it's okay to admit it as long as it's not part of a false argument that the Twins are particularly good at busting draft choices.

 

I'd agree, there's been 6 GMs during during that run and all three of those picks were overseen by only one regime. From what I'm seeing from the club now, I'm much more comfortable that the organization is getting optimal intel on the guys they are selecting.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

I'd agree, there's been 6 GMs during during that run and all three of those picks were overseen by only one regime. From what I'm seeing from the club now, I'm much more comfortable that the organization is getting optimal intel on the guys they are selecting.

Why is that? I'm not necessarily disagreeing but the new FO has had three drafts now and two trade deadlines and have managed only one top 100 prospect (Lewis). The 2017 draft doesn't stand up well just a couple years out. It's way too early to make any judgments but i'm wondering where your optimism is coming from.

[Danchat]

Why is that? I'm not necessarily disagreeing but the new FO has had three drafts now and two trade deadlines and have managed only one top 100 prospect (Lewis). The 2017 draft doesn't stand up well just a couple years out. It's way too early to make any judgments but i'm wondering where your optimism is coming from.

At this point it’s way too early to evaluate the Falvine drafts. We have a ways to go before we know if they are good drafters / international prospect finders.

[gunnarthor]

 

At this point it’s way too early to evaluate the Falvine drafts. We have a ways to go before we know if they are good drafters / international prospect finders.

Yeah, I said as much. Was wondering where he was finding his optimism on those drafts.

[nicksaviking]

 

Why is that? I'm not necessarily disagreeing but the new FO has had three drafts now and two trade deadlines and have managed only one top 100 prospect (Lewis). The 2017 draft doesn't stand up well just a couple years out. It's way too early to make any judgments but i'm wondering where your optimism is coming from.

 

All areas of the organization appear to now revolve around gathering, analyzing and utilizing as much data as possible. We're still going to see draft busts, that's likely inevitable, but at this time I don't think it's going to be for a lack of due diligence.

[Mr. Brooks]

Why is that? I'm not necessarily disagreeing but the new FO has had three drafts now and two trade deadlines and have managed only one top 100 prospect (Lewis). The 2017 draft doesn't stand up well just a couple years out. It's way too early to make any judgments but i'm wondering where your optimism is coming from.

Our farm system is catastrophically overrated if our 2017 draft doesn't stand up, as 3 of our top 9 prospects are from that draft class.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Our farm system is catastrophically overrated if our 2017 draft doesn't stand up, as 3 of our top 9 prospects are from that draft class.

 

The thing about they system I wonder.....Houston just keeps pulling up good to great players. MN has pulled up Garver and, um, who in the last two+ years for their debut? And who is likely to come up this year? I might be missing someone, but there doesn't seem to be much actual help coming up right now (or recently).

[bird]

My "optimism" is based on this:

 

1. Falvey didn't dismantle the scouting capacity of the organization. They kept a lot of strong talent evaluators whose prowess has served a number of GM's.

 

1a. I'm skeptical that the problem has ever been faulty due diligence. Bad draft strategy? To an extent. Luck? Yep.

 

2. They DID cull the herd, but more importantly, they added personnel.

 

3. In very dramatic ways, they added resources to the evaluation effort. This is in the form of both advanced observational technology AND improved methodology.

 

4. The investment in both human and technological resources on the player development side will make the evaluators look even better. This area has been IMO their most important achievement.

 

5. I remain steadfastly optimistic that we'll see future first round busts. They can't profile these prospects to determine which will be victims of health or victims of demons.

[Mike Sixel]

 

My "optimism" is based on this:

 

1. Falvey didn't dismantle the scouting capacity of the organization. They kept a lot of strong talent evaluators whose prowess has served a number of GM's.

 

1a. I'm skeptical that the problem has ever been faulty due diligence. Bad draft strategy? To an extent. Luck? Yep.

 

2. They DID cull the herd, but more importantly, they added personnel.

 

3. In very dramatic ways, they added resources to the evaluation effort. This is in the form of both advanced observational technology AND improved methodology.

 

4. The investment in both human and technological resources on the player development side will make the evaluators look even better. This area has been IMO their most important achievement.

 

5. I remain steadfastly optimistic that we'll see future first round busts. They can't profile these prospects to determine which will be victims of health or victims of demons.

 

agreed that the resources and process seems better. Hard to say if that is generating better results yet, but I think it will. We'll see if it generates great results.....that's what really matters.

[gunnarthor]

 

My "optimism" is based on this:

 

1. Falvey didn't dismantle the scouting capacity of the organization. They kept a lot of strong talent evaluators whose prowess has served a number of GM's.

 

1a. I'm skeptical that the problem has ever been faulty due diligence. Bad draft strategy? To an extent. Luck? Yep.

 

2. They DID cull the herd, but more importantly, they added personnel.

 

3. In very dramatic ways, they added resources to the evaluation effort. This is in the form of both advanced observational technology AND improved methodology.

 

4. The investment in both human and technological resources on the player development side will make the evaluators look even better. This area has been IMO their most important achievement.

 

5. I remain steadfastly optimistic that we'll see future first round busts. They can't profile these prospects to determine which will be victims of health or victims of demons.

I like this answer and I agree with most of it. I do think that we have to wait on results but some of our recent drafts have looked pretty good and I'm hoping that the FO finds more Polancos, Keplers and Berrios in the future. 

[bird]

 

Our farm system is catastrophically overrated if our 2017 draft doesn't stand up, as 3 of our top 9 prospects are from that draft class.

 

If the results were 100% reliant on Rule 4 results, I might agree. My theory is that increasingly, successful teams will be relying on IFA acquisitions and adroit, opportunistic active management of player assets, especially trade market decisions. Right now, about 40% of our roster regards English as a second language.

 

I just read somewhere that BA had moved both Balazovic and Larnach into its Top 100. A big if right now, but if Lewis, Kirilloff, and Graterol regain their status, the system isn't overrated if one accepts FanGraph's current #7 ranking, for example.

[gunnarthor]

 

Our farm system is catastrophically overrated if our 2017 draft doesn't stand up, as 3 of our top 9 prospects are from that draft class.

I'm not sure that's true. Balazovic and Arraez have probably already moved Enlow out of the top 10. And maybe more than one pick from this year could figure into our top 10. I wouldn't be surprised if Lewis and Rooker are the only 2017 picks on our top 10 in a month or so. But Lewis is a heck of a get and he makes our farm system pretty strong. 

 

I think the criticism I have with our system right now is that it's deep but not really tall, if that makes sense. We have a ton of players who could become solid MLers, which is great. We don't have that many who could become better than solid. And this recent draft seemed to add a bunch of future solid players but lacks that upside. 

[Mr. Brooks]

The thing about they system I wonder.....Houston just keeps pulling up good to great players. MN has pulled up Garver and, um, who in the last two+ years for their debut? And who is likely to come up this year? I might be missing someone, but there doesn't seem to be much actual help coming up right now (or recently).

I guess I'd have to ask how many of these players that Houston is bringing up were acquired since October 2016.

Falvine's first draft picks haven't even been in the system 2 years yet, but I think we have a lot of good prospects that are right around the corner (hopefully).