Trade Target: Ken Giles

[mendozaline]

 

Hadn't thought of that. I think it could be close. Upthread, I had suggested one of Larnach, Jeffers, or Rortvedt (and maybe a lotto ticket?) to get Giles today. So in effect, this would be another one of those guys, plus a pitching prospect, for Stroman.

 

Maybe you'd have to upgrade the pitching prospect? I don't think Gonsalves would be involved, especially not while he's on the shelf. I don't know how they'd view Alcala or Duran. I guess Graterol would be off limits -- Balazovic too?

I wasn't sure about including Duran because I think at the minimum he's going to turn into a power pen arm. But, you have to give value to receive value so I'd have to asssume he would be in the conversation. I do think selling high on Larnach and Balazovic would be smart but I must admit, I don't know much about Balazovic other than the minor league thread reports.

[Mr. Brooks]

After a quick look it appears Toronto is light on C and OF prospects. I'd go something like: Larnach, Gonzalves/Alcala, one of Jeffers/Rortvedt and a lotto ticket for Giles and Stroman. Would that be enough?

Unless I'm misinterpreting your post, you'd offer:

Larnach and Alcala and Jeffers/Rortvedt?

 

That seems like too much for a relief pitcher, to me.

 

Edit: Missed that you were including Stroman as well.

In that case, the offer is probably too light.

[Blake]

Whoever the Twins get, I'd like to see at least one more year of team control so the Twins get a chance to keep him around for a while.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Unless I'm misinterpreting your post, you'd offer:
Larnach and Alcala and Jeffers/Rortvedt?

That seems like too much for a relief pitcher, to me.

It is, but the post added Stroman to that list too. 

[Bob Sacamento]

Seemed appropriate for here, but MLB.com just posted "7 Trades that make perfect sense", here's what they say about the Twins

 

 

 

Will Smith to Twins

 

The Twins had a great offseason and are well positioned to win the AL Central. The postseason requires a lot of bullpen depth, and now that Craig Kimbrel is off the board, expect Minnesota to trade for bullpen help in the next six weeks.

 

Potential trade pieces: With Smith headed toward free agency, the Giants aren’t going to get one of Minnesota’s top three prospects. Righty Jordan Balazovic (Minny’s No. 19 prospect) is drawing nice reviews for his work in the Florida State League.

 

Which seems about the right cost and return, although I'd prefer to keep Balazovic if I were the Twins

[Mr. Brooks]

It is, but the post added Stroman to that list too.

Oops, missed that!

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Hadn't thought of that. I think it could be close. Upthread, I had suggested one of Larnach, Jeffers, or Rortvedt (and maybe a lotto ticket?) to get Giles today. So in effect, this would be another one of those guys, plus a pitching prospect, for Stroman.

 

Maybe you'd have to upgrade the pitching prospect? I don't think Gonsalves would be involved, especially not while he's on the shelf. I don't know how they'd view Alcala or Duran. I guess Graterol would be off limits -- Balazovic too?

Yeah I can't see the Twins getting Stroman without giving up the likes of Graterol AND a Rooker/Larnach type and then whatever it costs to get Giles.  Stroman costs 6.3M this year and is arbitration eligible next year so he's still "cheap" in terms of his talent on the free agency market.  Giles is now arguably the best relief option left. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

I'm not sure I agree there, but you may be right. I don't think they will need to part with any of the big 3, but I do think we could end up losing guys like Enlow, Duran, Blankenhorn, Acala, etc. 

Deal ! But who is this Etc guy ? I can't find him on any rosters.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Deal ! But who is this Etc guy ? I can't find him on any rosters.

 

I'm pretty sure he's the cousin of the TBD guy mentioned in the game thread. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yeah I can't see the Twins getting Stroman without giving up the likes of Graterol AND a Rooker/Larnach type and then whatever it costs to get Giles.  Stroman costs 6.3M this year and is arbitration eligible next year so he's still "cheap" in terms of his talent on the free agency market.  Giles is now arguably the best relief option left. 

 

 

Personally, I don't get the love for Stroman. The ERA is sexy, but really nothing else is. He's never maintained a high K rate and this season is right along the lines of his career norm (just under 7), and he doesn't exactly limit the walks either. He does limit HRs, but I'm not paying a pretty price for a starter with a 1.3 WHIP and a low K rate. 

 

There are starters out there worth getting (including the guy we are facing tonight), but I'm not sure he's my target. 

 

Giles on the other hand. I think the question becomes how soon do they pull the trigger. I can see the FO waiting another month given our lead. May as well let the sellers hold on to injury risk for another month. But at some point, we have to acquire two good arms to complement Rogers and I really hope they are willing to pony up the prospects to get it done. 

[zenser]

Not specifically related to Giles, but who are some of the guys that will need to be added to the 40 man in the offseason?  Has Diaz rebounded enough to be a viable trade chip?

[Mr. Brooks]

Personally, I don't get the love for Stroman. The ERA is sexy, but really nothing else is. He's never maintained a high K rate and this season is right along the lines of his career norm (just under 7), and he doesn't exactly limit the walks either. He does limit HRs, but I'm not paying a pretty price for a starter with a 1.3 WHIP and a low K rate.

 

There are starters out there worth getting (including the guy we are facing tonight), but I'm not sure he's my target.

 

Giles on the other hand. I think the question becomes how soon do they pull the trigger. I can see the FO waiting another month given our lead. May as well let the sellers hold on to injury risk for another month. But at some point, we have to acquire two good arms to complement Rogers and I really hope they are willing to pony up the prospects to get it done.

It's because, as much as some posters think that budgets shouldn't matter, since there is no salary cap, for most teams it does.

Starting pitching is expensive. Even mediocre starting pitching is expensive. Look at what we paid for guys like Nolasco and Pelfrey.

With his low salary, Stroman doesn't need to be very good in order to have a ton of excess value.

That might actually make him more attractive as an offseason trade for someone though. He might not move the needle in a playoff rotation, but gives a lot of flexibility as 1/5th of a regular season rotation at that price.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Not specifically related to Giles, but who are some of the guys that will need to be added to the 40 man in the offseason?  Has Diaz rebounded enough to be a viable trade chip?

 

Diaz would be one of the 40 man guys.... He's doing well in the FSL at age 22, so I'd say he's back on the map about as much as a bat only 1B/DH can be... so maybe as a throw in, but I doubt he's a main piece. I'm pretty sure Alcala, Graterol, and Duran will need to be added. I'm sure there's a few more as well. 

 

I think the big thing will be the need to move some of our AAA pitching on the 40 man. Unfortunately, not many of them have done much to add to their value. Most are hurt. Perhaps they can unload one or two of Stewart, Littell, Thorpe, or Gonsalves. But I'm not seeing a ton of demand there for top end talent. Hope I'm wrong. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

It's because, as much as some posters think that budgets shouldn't matter, since there is no salary cap, for most teams it does.
Starting pitching is expensive. Even mediocre starting pitching is expensive. Look at what we paid for guys like Nolasco and Pelfrey.
With his low salary, Stroman doesn't need to be very good in order to have a ton of excess value.
That might actually make him more attractive as an offseason trade for someone though. He might not move the needle in a playoff rotation, but gives a lot of flexibility as 1/5th of a regular season rotation at that price.

 

But we don't need that. We need a needle mover in a playoff rotation more than flexibility.

 

Our top 5 is more than adequate right now. Smeltzer and Stewart have shown they can hold their own and currently sit in AAA, and we still have other options we can test (Thorpe in particular). I'm not worried about rotation depth unless we start seeing injuries, and acquiring excess value when the window is open strikes me as a poor strategic approach when this team looks like it's a few roster holes shy of a WS run. 

 

If they aren't going to get a needle mover, then I'd rather them focus efforts on the pen. 

[nicksaviking]

Seems to me teams who don't want to appear to be rebuilding often end up going for "MLB ready" players in trade so they have something to stick on the field right away. Because of that, even though many of us would probably put diminished value on them, I'd bet Fernando Romero, (a healthy) Stephen Gonsalves and Luis Arreaz would appeal as substantial pieces to many teams.

 

Probably not the top pieces depending on the target, but I'd bet they'd draw significantly more interest than most of us would think.

[Mr. Brooks]

But we don't need that. We need a needle mover in a playoff rotation more than flexibility.

 

Our top 5 is more than adequate right now. Smeltzer and Stewart have shown they can hold their own and currently sit in AAA, and we still have other options we can test (Thorpe in particular). I'm not worried about rotation depth unless we start seeing injuries, and acquiring excess value when the window is open strikes me as a poor strategic approach when this team looks like it's a few roster holes shy of a WS run.

 

If they aren't going to get a needle mover, then I'd rather them focus efforts on the pen.

Yes, and no. He's under contract for one more year.

We need a needle mover for the playoffs this year, which is why I wasn't interested in Kuechel.

But, FO's can't only think about this year. Only 2/5th of our rotation is under control for next year.

Stroman could be attractive to our FO, as both insurance against injury this year, but possibly more importantly, as a cheap rotation piece for next year.

[Mr. Brooks]

But we don't need that. We need a needle mover in a playoff rotation more than flexibility.

 

Our top 5 is more than adequate right now. Smeltzer and Stewart have shown they can hold their own and currently sit in AAA, and we still have other options we can test (Thorpe in particular). I'm not worried about rotation depth unless we start seeing injuries, and acquiring excess value when the window is open strikes me as a poor strategic approach when this team looks like it's a few roster holes shy of a WS run.

 

If they aren't going to get a needle mover, then I'd rather them focus efforts on the pen.

Stewart has 23 walks and 27 strikeouts in 49 career mlb innings. That is not close to encouraging.

Smeltzer has all of two starts. Two starts isn't enough to "show he can hold his own", no matter how those two starts went.

[nicksaviking]

 

Personally, I don't get the love for Stroman. The ERA is sexy, but really nothing else is. He's never maintained a high K rate and this season is right along the lines of his career norm (just under 7), and he doesn't exactly limit the walks either. He does limit HRs, but I'm not paying a pretty price for a starter with a 1.3 WHIP and a low K rate. 

 

 

Yeah, I agree that he's always been suspect, but I'd also pass on Stroman and anyone else that's going to give the Twins very suspect infield defense more work than they have to. While not traditionally appealing, I'll take the pitchers who get the batters to hit balls to Buxton, Kepler and Rosario instead.

 

Well, I mean I want the pitchers who get outs all on their own first and foremost.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yes, and no. He's under contract for one more year.
We need a needle mover for the playoffs this year, which is why I wasn't interested in Kuechel.
But, FO's can't only think about this year. Only 2/5th of our rotation is under control for next year.
Stroman could be attractive to our FO, as both insurance against injury this year, but possibly more importantly, as a cheap rotation piece for next year.

 

we were both in agreement on Keuchel… so I guess that's that. The other 3/5ths can all be QOd too. Not saying they'd do that to Pineda, but I'm betting both Gibson and Odorizzi would (as of now) get one and one or possibly both would work out a small extension. I don't think the 2020 rotation is quite that dire, though I do think they will have to dip into the FA pool and to some extent rely on some help from the farm. 

 

Stroman is also under contract for one more year. If they want to get something more long term, they need to focus on someone who will be around beyond 2021. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Stewart has 23 walks and 27 strikeouts in 49 career mlb innings. That is not close to encouraging.
Smeltzer has all of two starts. Two starts isn't enough to "show he can hold his own", no matter how those two starts went.

 

I didn't say Stewart was good, but as a stop gap, he's been acceptable. And granted on Smeltzer, but he's pitched quite well in said two starts. My point is that our rotation as constructed is more than adequate and can sustain some short term losses. If the injuries start piling up (like Cleveland for instance), then yes I'd be worried.

 

But that's back to my point. If they want rotation help, get an ace. I'd note that Matt Boyd (the guy we are facing tonight) will be arb eligible for the first time next season. Getting someone like that would be worth the price and solve your concerns as well... and yes, it would cost us some top prospects of which I'd have no problems paying.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Seems to me teams who don't want to appear to be rebuilding often end up going for "MLB ready" players in trade so they have something to stick on the field right away. Because of that, even though many of us would probably put diminished value on them, I'd bet Fernando Romero, (a healthy) Stephen Gonsalves and Luis Arreaz would appeal as substantial pieces to many teams.

 

Probably not the top pieces depending on the target, but I'd bet they'd draw significantly more interest than most of us would think.

Evidence? These same teams actually use to sign FA too but have stopped. Teams aren't too shy about rebuilding anymore. Maybe they will take one of these guys back for a Zach Duke type (like the Twins took De Jong), but they're not discounting valuable assets for MLB readiness.

 

I just don't want to read a lot more Gonsalves trade proposals!

[Mike Sixel]

we were both in agreement on Keuchel… so I guess that's that. The other 3/5ths can all be QOd too. Not saying they'd do that to Pineda, but I'm betting both Gibson and Odorizzi would (as of now) get one and one or possibly both would work out a small extension. I don't think the 2020 rotation is quite that dire, though I do think they will have to dip into the FA pool and to some extent rely on some help from the farm.

 

Stroman is also under contract for one more year. If they want to get something more long term, they need to focus on someone who will be around beyond 2021.

Two QOs? Pay two pitchers, what, 17+ million each? That's thirty percent of the budget. I have doubts about that.

[old nurse]

4-5 of the prospects below number 5 on the rankings as long as they don't have a plus fastball would never be missed.

[70charger]

 

Deal ! But who is this Etc guy ? I can't find him on any rosters.

 

It's short for Brian Duensing.

 

By the way, the Twins have an awful lot of injuries in the minors lately. I didn't even realize the two guys I had suggested were down for the count. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Two QOs? Pay two pitchers, what, 17+ million each? That's thirty percent of the budget. I have doubts about that.

I'm sure they will try and work out extensions, but if those two finish out the season pitching well, they would be crazy not to, and given the FA market, the players would likely either sign extensions or take the QO. 

[Mr. Brooks]

I didn't say Stewart was good, but as a stop gap, he's been acceptable. And granted on Smeltzer, but he's pitched quite well in said two starts. My point is that our rotation as constructed is more than adequate and can sustain some short term losses. If the injuries start piling up (like Cleveland for instance), then yes I'd be worried.

 

But that's back to my point. If they want rotation help, get an ace. I'd note that Matt Boyd (the guy we are facing tonight) will be arb eligible for the first time next season. Getting someone like that would be worth the price and solve your concerns as well... and yes, it would cost us some top prospects of which I'd have no problems paying.

I can't disagree more on Stewart.

Those numbers are nowhere near acceptable.

Doesn't mean he can't develop, but you said he's shown he can hold his own now.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm sure they will try and work out extensions, but if those two finish out the season pitching well, they would be crazy not to, and given the FA market, the players would likely either sign extensions or take the QO.

They aren't signing extensions this close to free agency.

And I doubt we can afford both, if they both keep pitching this well.

[Mr. Brooks]

we were both in agreement on Keuchel… so I guess that's that. The other 3/5ths can all be QOd too. Not saying they'd do that to Pineda, but I'm betting both Gibson and Odorizzi would (as of now) get one and one or possibly both would work out a small extension. I don't think the 2020 rotation is quite that dire, though I do think they will have to dip into the FA pool and to some extent rely on some help from the farm.

 

Stroman is also under contract for one more year. If they want to get something more long term, they need to focus on someone who will be around beyond 2021.

I'm not saying it's dire.

I'm saying it might be an attractive option. They can't keep Odor or Gibson for anywhere close to as cheap as Stroman is. Those are decisions that FO's have to make when they have a budget.

[Otto von Ballpark]

They aren't signing extensions this close to free agency.

And I doubt we can afford both, if they both keep pitching this well.

The QO is a good incentive to negotiate an extension. The team won't want to pay $17 mil in 2020; the player won't want to be limited to a 1-year term. So they should have some mutual interest in getting a deal done (probably not now, but after the season once the QO is made -- I guess "re-sign" might be better terminology than "extension" in that case).

[Mike Sixel]

 

The QO is a good incentive to negotiate an extension. The team won't want to pay $17 mil in 2020; the player won't want to be limited to a 1-year term. So they should have some mutual interest in getting a deal done (probably not now, but after the season once the QO is made -- I guess "re-sign" might be better terminology than "extension" in that case).

 

I take that one year, 17MM every time, unless they offer more than 13MM per year in a multi year deal.....I'm betting on myself below that number.