Draft

[Jake24]

Mindboggling to me that they have only selected 1 pitcher in the draft so far. With an organization that has been starved of arms for years and not a lot on the farm where do they think its going to come from! But hey, atleast we have 47 stud infielders!!!

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure my mind is boggled, but I am curious where they plan to find high end pitching.....because they aren't selling MLB assets this year to acquire more arms.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

What is a high end pitcher? I would call Odorizzi and Perez high end pitchers, even if for only half a season (if and assuming they come back down to earth in the second half, but maybe not). 

 

Seems like, generally speaking, hitters are better use of early round picks than pitchers. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

What is a high end pitcher? I would call Odorizzi and Perez high end pitchers, even if for only half a season (if and assuming they come back down to earth in the second half, but maybe not). 

 

Seems like, generally speaking, hitters are better use of early round picks than pitchers. 

 

Sure, they are safer probably....but you need pitching. Do we really think the Twins are going to continue to find a team willing to trade a guy like Odo for a mid level prospect? Or that they can turn a guy into Perez every year? 

 

The minors need 5-7 starters at every level, those guys need to come from somewhere. At some point you have to draft pitching to have pitching. 

[TheLeviathan]

Too bad there aren't more rounds to draft pitching in......

 

Franchise Over!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Too bad there aren't more rounds to draft pitching in......

 

Franchise Over!

 

no one said that.......

 

how much great pitching will come after round 5, do you think?

[TheLeviathan]

 

no one said that.......

 

how much great pitching will come after round 5, do you think?

 

How much great anything comes in any round of the baseball draft?  The percentages drop off steeply and quickly.

 

I feel like people are applying the rules of NFL or NBA drafts to the MLB draft.  It's not the same animal.

 

The joking hyperbole I'm using is still several levels under the hyperbole about pitching right now.  C'mon Mike.

[Mike Sixel]

 

How much great anything comes in any round of the baseball draft?  The percentages drop off steeply and quickly.

 

I feel like people are applying the rules of NFL or NBA drafts to the MLB draft.  It's not the same animal.

 

not at all, we are asking where the great pitching is going to come from if you don't draft it early, year after year. 

[PATwinsfan]

My guess is they see minor league hitters as easier to develop than minor league pitching, and are focusing on hitting middle infielders specifidally because they sense middle infielders who can hit are more valued than other positions.  I would think the plan then would be to trade some of that middle infield minor league talent/depth for major league pitching, similar to the Palacios for Odorizzi trade.  They've demonstrated an ability to develop and effectively change the approach of major league pitchers, so I'm thinking they think that is a more reliable avenue for pitching than developing minor league players. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

not at all, we are asking where the great pitching is going to come from if you don't draft it early, year after year. 

 

Like all "great" baseball players - you explore many avenues.  Draft, trade, international, etc.

 

Your problem in these threads is not that you're not gushing - it's that you are being far too hyperbolic in your worries.  Pull up the best 20 pitchers in baseball and find the wide variety of ways they were found and developed.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Like all "great" baseball players - you explore many avenues.  Draft, trade, international, etc.

 

Your problem in these threads is not that you're not gushing - it's that you are being far too hyperbolic in your worries.  Pull up the best 20 pitchers in baseball and find the wide variety of ways they were found and developed.

 

Their most expensive IFA signings last year were mostly hitters also. 

 

I'm literally asking where they plan to get pitching......not saying they won't, or can't,  but asking if they don't draft it, where do they plan to get it.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Their most expensive IFA signings last year were mostly hitters also. 

 

I'm literally asking where they plan to get pitching......not saying they won't, or can't,  but asking if they don't draft it, where do they plan to get it.

 

You're right.  They won't have any pitching and they'll forfeit all their games.

 

Franchise Over.

[Supfin99]

The pitching talent in this draft was worse this than in most. It’s cyclical. Next year the draft is supposed to be loaded. BTW some pitchers taken by Twins in 5th round and below recently, Jordan Balazovic 5th Rd 2016, Cole Sands 5th rd 2018, Jovani Moran 7th rd 2015, Cody Stashek rd 13 2015, Devin Smeltzer rd 5 2016, Tyler Duffey rd 5 2012. Every one of those guys has either already pitched for the Twins or probably will in the next couple of years.

[Sssuperdave]

I see two questions being asked:

 

1. How do they even fill out their minor league rosters if they don't draft pitchers?

 

My answer: There are 40 rounds to the draft.  I would bet some good money that once all 40 rounds are complete they will have drafted at least 15 pitchers.  Even if the draft fewer than that there are tons of other ways to get pitchers including undrafted free agents, players waived by other teams, independent minor leaguers, international free agents, etc.  There are literally thousands of pitchers out there that could be signed.  Of course, this is a bit of a silly question... which brings us to #2:

 

2. How do they expect to develop good pitching if they don't draft pitchers in the first 5-10 rounds?

 

My answer: This I think is a valid concern and can be seen throughout the twins system.  Most of best offensive players are players the Twins drafted and developed (or signed internationally and developed) - Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polaco, Rosario, and Garver off the top of my head. Pitching on the other hand... Berrios, Gibson, Rogers, and that's pretty much it.  Odorizzi, Pineda, Perez, Parker and Harper were all mostly developed by other organizations. 

 

This goes throughout the farm system too... most of the top prospects are position players... Kiriloff, Gordon, Lewis, Larnach, Rooker, Javier.  The only top pitching prospect is Graterol and maybe Duran or Gonsalves or Romero if you still call them prospects. 

 

All that said, you can still get MLB pitching through trades or free agency.  Odorizzi, Perez and Parker are great examples.   Perhaps the Twins are simply better at developing position players, in which case it makes sense to do what you are good at and then trade for or sign pitchers after they've been developed by other teams.  The main problem I see with this as it regards the Twins is that they haven't shown a lot of willingness to part with top position prospects for pitching or sign big name free agents.  If they want an Ace to pair with Berrios at some point they'll either need to part with a guys like Royce Lewis & Alex Kirilloff and/or be willing to pay a pitcher $20+M/year.

 

[jimbo92107]

Maybe Wes Johnson told the FO that he can make a major league pitcher out of any big, healthy kid that can throw a mid-90's heater...so why bother drafting them.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Their most expensive IFA signings last year were mostly hitters also. 

 

I'm literally asking where they plan to get pitching......not saying they won't, or can't,  but asking if they don't draft it, where do they plan to get it.

They got Odo and Perez from other organizations.

[bird]

 

Sure, they are safer probably....but you need pitching. Do we really think the Twins are going to continue to find a team willing to trade a guy like Odo for a mid level prospect? Or that they can turn a guy into Perez every year? 

 

The minors need 5-7 starters at every level, those guys need to come from somewhere. At some point you have to draft pitching to have pitching. 

 

 

Mike, let's completely dispel all hints that the Twins have utterly failed, relative to others, to acquire "high-end" pitching. Which I'll take the liberty to define as starters providing top rotation performance for you and relievers worthy of high leverage action. You know, guys like Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson, Perez, Rogers...and high-end pitching performance has played a big part in why the team is 40-18.

 

Every one of their starters was a first round pick.

 

Why are you so adamant about your opinion that Martin Perez is a one-off fluke? Or that they can't occasionally continue to find a middling starter like Odo and turn him around? They may not all turn into "high-end" pitchers, but we can add a number of examples, Smeltzer for another, that indicate this organization can find decent pitching from any number of sources.

 

This draft? There may not be two pitchers the pundits regard as #1-2 talents, Lodo and Maneah maybe. You can't force your will on the draft class. I'm thrilled that they're doing what they're doing. They've found the occasional diamond in the later rounds, like Rogers, so...

 

My theory is they've assessed things, knowing for awhile that Rule 4 pitching would be thin in 2019, and have emphasized the IFA market. We'll see. They DO have some intriguing names emerging from the DSL already in guys like Edwar Colina, Berroa Prelander, Anthony Escobar, etc.

 

And let's remember that the prospect cupboard is hardly bare in the high end area, although it is bare in AAA for sure, but Graterol, Balazovic, Thorpe, Enslow, Duran, and others have front end rotation ceilings, while Alcala, Romero, and others are exciting bullpen candidates.

 

Both AA and A+ have the second best team ERA's, and A is not horrible. The GCL had the best team ERA last year, and those guys will be at ETown in two weeks. Don't discount this. As you said, the teams need 5-7 starters, right? They must be closer to having that than you think.

 

We'll start reading about a lot about some intriguing names soon, maybe guys like Leach, Benninghoff, Grace, Montero, and Navas. Plus, let's not forget that obscure names will surface like Balazovic did. Who knows who it will be, but guys like Ober, Colina, Sands, Wells, Dobnak, Sammon, Vasquez, et al might end up as another Smeltzer type, and when one does, it won't be flukish.

 

And last point: if they execute well, they'll convert positional surplus on a regular basis as one of the many sources of high-end pitching, like they may have already done with Odorizzi, Smeltzer, Duran, and Alcala.

 

So my friend, we're okay. Just need them to sign Kimbrel or trade for someone, and then stay healthy.

 

[Mike Sixel]

I never used the phrase utterly failed. I'm happy to have conversations if people want....but let's not exaggerate positions to make points.

 

I think it will be hard to find trades like Odo, because when you look at trades for good SPs, you don't see many like it. 

 

As for Perez, if Wes Johnson can do this every year, he should be paid about 100MM per year. Again, it just doesn't happen all that often that a guy is so bad he's cut by a team desperate for pitching, has an ERA in the high 5s, and then becomes a good pitcher the next year.

 

I don't see either as consistently repeatable because it doesn't happen across the league every year, let alone for one team every year.

[KirbyDome89]

 

2. How do they expect to develop good pitching if they don't draft pitchers in the first 5-10 rounds?

 

My answer: This I think is a valid concern and can be seen throughout the twins system.  Most of best offensive players are players the Twins drafted and developed (or signed internationally and developed) - Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polaco, Rosario, and Garver off the top of my head. Pitching on the other hand... Berrios, Gibson, Rogers, and that's pretty much it.  Odorizzi, Pineda, Perez, Parker and Harper were all mostly developed by other organizations. 

 

This goes throughout the farm system too... most of the top prospects are position players... Kiriloff, Gordon, Lewis, Larnach, Rooker, Javier.  The only top pitching prospect is Graterol and maybe Duran or Gonsalves or Romero if you still call them prospects. 

 

All that said, you can still get MLB pitching through trades or free agency.  Odorizzi, Perez and Parker are great examples.   Perhaps the Twins are simply better at developing position players, in which case it makes sense to do what you are good at and then trade for or sign pitchers after they've been developed by other teams.  The main problem I see with this as it regards the Twins is that they haven't shown a lot of willingness to part with top position prospects for pitching or sign big name free agents.  If they want an Ace to pair with Berrios at some point they'll either need to part with a guys like Royce Lewis & Alex Kirilloff and/or be willing to pay a pitcher $20+M/year.

I'm almost 100% on board with this. 

 

It's a nitpick but you could argue that Perez has done the most "development," in regards to production since joining the Twins organization. Whether I believe it continues is another topic....

 

I like the strategy of taking bats if they believe those players have a better shot at reaching their ceiling and/or the major league level. I hope it's for that reason rather than the organization is lacking in their ability to develop pitching. IMO the concern for finding arms is valid up until the Twins start spending real $$ in FA or moving some of these young guys with "upside," for said pitching. If they're going to continue to bargain hunt during FA, trades, and even scour later rounds of the draft hoping to strike gold then maybe they're better off rolling the dice on a few early round arms. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Mindboggling to me that they have only selected 1 pitcher in the draft so far. With an organization that has been starved of arms for years and not a lot on the farm where do they think its going to come from! But hey, atleast we have 47 stud infielders!!!

 

Even if they were drafting college seniors, they still probably wouldn't be ready for 3-4 years. That's a lifetime in MLB terms; for all we know in 3-4 years the team is going to have lots of arms and need a bunch of hitters to step up.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I never used the phrase utterly failed. I'm happy to have conversations if people want....but let's not exaggerate positions to make points.

 

Mike, you sorta did that to yourself.  

 

Perhaps before we worry we won't "have" pitching we should see how the other 3/4 of the draft plays out?  At that point your concern may have more merit.

[nicksaviking]

 

no one said that.......

 

how much great pitching will come after round 5, do you think?

 

Probably only fractionally less than will come before it. How many great pitchers come out of a typical draft? 1 or 2?

 

It's starting to look like the team believes finding great young pitching is less reliable than Frankensteining good arms from pitchers other clubs failed with.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike, you sorta did that to yourself.  

 

Perhaps before we worry we won't "have" pitching we should see how the other 3/4 of the draft plays out?  At that point your concern may have more merit.

 

As you pointed out, after round 1-2, maybe three, the odds are LONG on a guy making it. 

 

As I said in the Vikings threads, I'm not interested in more late round guys that won't make it for the OL, and like with the Vikings, I'm doubtful that only taking pitchers late will lead to a lot of good minor league pitching.

 

I'm also hoping they aren't in position to trade MLB players for minor league guys the next 5 years. 

 

So, I'm hoping the plan is to start trading from the surplus of hitting prospects for good MLB starters, and then retaining said starters with big contracts. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Probably only fractionally less than will come before it. How many great pitchers come out of a typical draft? 1 or 2?

 

It's looking like the team believes finding great young pitching is less reliable than Frankenstiening good pitching from pitchers other clubs failed with.

 

Certainly possible. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

As you pointed out, after round 1-2, maybe three, the odds are LONG on a guy making it. 

 

 

A couple things - you keep comparing the fourth round of the MLB draft to the NFL one and that comparison doesn't hold much weight.  Every round after the first in MLB is more like the 7th round of the NFL.  It's 39 rounds of 7th round shot taking.  So I really don't like that comparison you keep drawing.

 

Secondly, (and related) it's not as if a second round pitcher is significantly more likely to be a major leaguer than a seventh rounder.  The number just don't bear out the complaint.  

 

The odds are long against all positions, not just pitchers. 

[Kelly Vance]

 

Mindboggling to me that they have only selected 1 pitcher in the draft so far. With an organization that has been starved of arms for years and not a lot on the farm where do they think its going to come from! But hey, atleast we have 47 stud infielders!!!

I think the Twins realize that it is better to trade for pitchers than draft them. Taking guys like Wimmers in the draft didn't help much in past years. Some NFL teams go this route with quarterbacks.

 

Sending a decent middle infield prospect to TB for Odorizzi, for example, was a good move. But first you had to draft the shortstop they wanted. 

 

Taking the best player available should pan out as long as you can move that prospect later.  I don't see a reason to worry. 

 

 

 

 

 

[KirbyDome89]

 

Probably only fractionally less than will come before it. How many great pitchers come out of a typical draft? 1 or 2?

Isn't that just as hyperbolic as "can't find pitching?"

 

Again, I'm on board with drafting position players that are more likely to reach the major league level, but I'd certainly take a pitcher that slots as the 2 or 3 which I think is a much more reasonable expectation for a guy drafted in the first couple rounds.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Secondly, (and related) it's not as if a second round pitcher is significantly more likely to be a major leaguer than a seventh rounder.  The number just don't bear out the complaint.  

There's a significantly better chance of a 2nd round arm reaching the major leagues.

 

We all agree that prospects are lottery tickets, but way too often on TD they're all lumped together into the same category. All picks aren't created equally, 2nd and 7th round picks don't have the same odds of panning out.

[TheLeviathan]

 

There's a significantly better chance of a 2nd round arm reaching the major leagues.

 

We all agree that prospects are lottery tickets, but way too often on TD they're all lumped together into the same category. All picks aren't created equally, 2nd and 7th round picks don't have the same odds of panning out.

 

Not exactly, but it's not as big a gulf as you might think.  Especially once you get to the third round it really starts to level off. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

Not exactly, but it's not as big a gulf as you might think.  Especially once you get to the third round it really starts to level off. 

I was using the same data. For HS arms going from the 2nd to 5th round the % chance of making it is cut in half. It's not as extreme for college arms but if you go 1st to 5th the % chance is again slashed in half. I'd consider that fairly significant even if your odds are !:4 at best.