Article: Twins Place Michael Pineda on DL, Devin Smeltzer Recalled

[SomeGuy]

 

Gonna have to disagree with this one. Sure Astudillo is in a little bit of a slump since getting of IR, but he adds a lot of versatility to the field, especially since Garver will have just gotten off IR and Twins will need a little more flexibility at catcher. Arraez will benefit much more from a player development standpoint by playing everyday at AAA. Sure it's nice to have his bat, but the Twins don't really need it right now. They'll have Cruz and Garver back soon, which are two of our best hitters.

They won't need to carry 3 catchers. Castro can step into a bigger role if needed. Garver shouldn't be activated if he can't physically handle at least a backup role as catcher.

 

Astudillo is worse with the bat than Adrianza, and Gonzalez plus they offer plenty of defensive versatility themselves. No brainer IMO.

[yarnivek1972]

There's really not much to it. Cruz has a sore wrist and Twins want to rest him. Offense has been doing fine without Cruz so there's no need to rush him.

I think I would rather have seen him take a professional at bat in the 9th last night as opposed to the “swing first, swing second, swing some more and MAYBE if a pitch is a foot outside don’t swing” approach used by Mr. Rosario and Mr. Sano.

[MNT1996]

 

They won't need to carry 3 catchers. Castro can step into a bigger role if needed. Garver shouldn't be activated if he can't physically handle at least a backup role as catcher.

 

Astudillo is worse with the bat than Adrianza, and Gonzalez plus they offer plenty of defensive versatility themselves. No brainer IMO.

 

I dont see the reason to add stress on Castro and Garver by sending Astudillo down. Twins offense has been great with him. They're gonna need to rest Castro and Garver as much as possible to keep them fresh down the road. Arraez and Littel will benefit much more from playing in AAA than Astudillo will. Tortuga is a utility bench guy. 

[MNT1996]

 

I think I would rather have seen him take a professional at bat in the 9th last night as opposed to the “swing first, swing second, swing some more and MAYBE if a pitch is a foot outside don’t swing” approach used by Mr. Rosario and Mr. Sano.

 

I'd rather have Cruz taking professional at bats in October at full strength than him taking painful at bats in May that could further deteriorate his recovery process.  

[twinstalker]

This looks like a "give everyone lots of rest because we're up 10 games and if we don't do it now we'll regret it later" kind of move.  We'll probably know for sure if Pineda makes a start on the first day eligible.

[SomeGuy]

 

The notion that Tortuga plays each position poorly is just not true. He's got a good arm behind the plate and has a 1.000 field percentage in 197 innings played.

Just the nickname implying that he has the speed of a turtle should tell you how capable he is in the field. I will give him props he has stepped into any position we asked and not been a liability but he isn't the best choice at any of the positions.

 

He could field these positions if needed and right now with the way he is hitting plus our other options probably having more range at the same positions, it is not needed.

 

Hasn't most of his "versatility" come from us trying to fit his bat into the lineup. Right now there is no need to find him at bats.  Gonzalez and Adrianza should be viewed as the superior defenders (and hitters).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Reality check: He is really injured. You can't put a player on the IL without doctor approval and without player approval. If a team manages to pay off a doctor, the player can still object to the league which brings in the MLB's doctors to make a determination. Similarly, doctor approval and player approval is required to take someone off the IL, with the same escalation path to MLB doctors if there is a disagreement.

 

Putting someone on the IL is a lot of paperwork.

 

In other words, this isn't a ploy to give him some rest.

 

This is the same knee Pineda tore up late last year and it makes sense that it would be sore.

I don't doubt Pineda's knee is actually sore. But I'm guessing lots of ballplayers experience similar soreness without it necessarily warranting an IL trip. Whether or not to put a player on the IL is the subjective part, and all kinds of factors can influence that subjective decision: the ready availability of a replacement, innings control, upcoming off days, other roster moves, etc.

[MN_ExPat]

Optimistically, I'm thinking it's a great strategic move that...

 

• Buys a skipping of the rotation one time on Pineda, who, as Spycake notes above, is on pace for an innings total that approaches career highs, which is particularly significant when bouncing back from injury. It does the skip when, on the way back from injury, he may building up a backlog of fatigue that could be addressed well with the skip.
• Picks up an "off day" in the schedule for Perez, Berrios, Odo, Gibson, when there haven't been many off days over the past six-seven weeks.
• Rewards Smeltzer for the great work he's done in the minors and gives him a taste of MLB.
• Happens at a time when the bullpen is relatively rested and headed

Pessimistically...

• Wait, at 35-18, I don't do pessimistically.

36-17

[stringer bell]

I said in another thread, I'd rather have Astudillo on the bench than Arraez. To amplify this remark, let's consider how the DH position has been handled with Cruz on the shelf. At least half a dozen different guys have been the DH, almost everyone but Castro and Buxton. When Cruz is back, he will take the lion's share of DH plate appearances. Having Gonzalez with no specified position will provide days off for the corner infielders and outfielders and perhaps Buxton. Adrianza would be the first choice to give Polanco a day off. So, where does Arraez get plate appearances? If the Twins are going to have a bench player getting very occasional at-bats, I think Astudillo is the right choice, not Arraez. Keeping Astudillo provides flexibility with the catchers (Baldelli would be comfortable running or hitting for the starter or occasionally starting Garver as the DH). 

 

Arraez has looked very good in his short time with the club. He has been afforded the chance to get plenty of playing time because of the rotation of players through the DH slot, but that is going to go away. When Cruz returns, it is best for him and the team for Arraez to go to Rochester and get more development time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Pineda can probably have a sub-2.00 ERA as a bullpen arm and the Twins need someone who can do that. He would be the ideal setup guy. Move him there when he gets back. This is going to be a nagging injury if they keep putting him out there for long stretches, and the Twins have to consider Pineda's future as a ballplayer.

That's a pretty bold forecast, for a guy who's never made a relief appearance in his MLB career. I'm not sure it's that straightforward, either in terms of performance or effects on his knee.

[jorgenswest]

 

Adrianza .231/.333/.397 (.731OPS) 96 wRC+

Astudillo .264/.276/.396 (.671 OPS) 70 wRC+ (worst OPS and wRC+ on team, only Twins hitter with negative WAR)

 

Once/if the Twins are fully healthy I think the roster pinch solution is pretty obvious. Astudillo is currently the worst hitter on the roster. Whether he is reluctant to take a pitch or just that bad at pitch recognition, he needs to make some changes. Once Garver is activated (possibly this weekend), I would send Astudillo down and continue to give Arraez as many at bats as possible from a bench role.

I hope the Twins are not using slash stats in samples not even close to reliable to determine who is going to be the better hitter going forward.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I just don't think it's smart to send down our 3rd catcher when our primary catcher just got off the IR. Garver will not be able to do the catch/not catch/catch/not catch rotation for a couple weeks so he can get readjusted. You're gonna need Tortuga until Garver is at full strength. Keeping Astudillo up keeps stress off of both Garver and Castro. 

 

I think Littel should be sent down before Tortuga.

I agree, I wouldn't expect them to send down Astudillo as soon as they activate Garver. But assuming Garver gets through his rehab with no trouble, it may come shortly after -- like at the end of next week, when they plan/hope to reactivate Pineda (June 7-8).

[james2334]

 

Reality check: He is really injured. You can't put a player on the IL without doctor approval and without player approval. If a team manages to pay off a doctor, the player can still object to the league which brings in the MLB's doctors to make a determination. Similarly, doctor approval and player approval is required to take someone off the IL, with the same escalation path to MLB doctors if there is a disagreement.

 

Putting someone on the IL is a lot of paperwork.

 

In other words, this isn't a ploy to give him some rest.

 

This is the same knee Pineda tore up late last year and it makes sense that it would be sore.

 

Pineda can probably have a sub-2.00 ERA as a bullpen arm and the Twins need someone who can do that. He would be the ideal setup guy. Move him there when he gets back. This is going to be a nagging injury if they keep putting him out there for long stretches, and the Twins have to consider Pineda's future as a ballplayer.

I hear what you're saying, but the cynic in me says the timing of this is all a little too convenient. He goes on the IL the day after a quality start and right before a stretch with two off days where we can skip his spot in the rotation until the 10 days are done. At the same time you can call up Smeltzer, let him pitch one game, send him down and use the extra roster spot for another player for 10 days. I mean his knee probably hurts, but not to the extent that he needs time on the IL. I think if he comes back at the end of ten days and pitches we'll know we've been had.

[SomeGuy]

 

 

I dont see the reason to add stress on Castro and Garver by sending Astudillo down. Twins offense has been great with him. They're gonna need to rest Castro and Garver as much as possible to keep them fresh down the road. Arraez and Littel will benefit much more from playing in AAA than Astudillo will. Tortuga is a utility bench guy. 

A 50-50 split should keep both plenty fresh for the entire season. Astudillo is a utility bench guy on a team with 2 other utility bench guys. Compared to the other utility bench guys, Astudillos value is at catcher and not IF/OF.  We don't need to roster 3 catchers just like we don't need 3 utility bench players.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I hope the Twins are not using slash stats in samples not even close to reliable to determine who is going to be the better hitter going forward.

I know you frequently warn about sample sizes, and it's often a fair warning, but I don't think it's necessarily appropriate here. There are appropriate times to simply favor the hot hand, and this might be one of them, and citing the slash lines here is an acceptable form of evidence that I wouldn't want to discourage. (Obviously we and the Twins can consider more evidence than that, if you have any to offer. But from my eye test, it's not as if Adrianza has been taking garbage at-bats or anything, and Astudillo doesn't have much of a track record of success either.)

 

They're not deciding who to release. It's just bench spot vs. AAA. Those slash stats, combined with the fact that Astudillo has options, can't pinch run, and may be no better than 3rd on our depth chart at any position -- I think it's potentially a valid choice to send him down soon. He can always be recalled later.

Edited May 28, 2019 by spycake

[SomeGuy]

 

 

I hope the Twins are not using slash stats in samples not even close to reliable to determine who is going to be the better hitter going forward.

Throw in the fact that the one that is statistically worse is the only one with options remaining.

 

How can Astudillo ever hope to compete in stats like OBP and OPS when he is not going to draw any walks?  It should be obvious that he will continue to be a low OBP/OPS guy going forward.

[rdehring]

Isn't it great that you are all having this hot debate over whom the Twins should send down when A, B and C come off the IL.  In recent years, there was an abundance of players worthy of demotion.  What a great step forward for this team.

 

As for my two cents, I think it is more important for Arraez to be playing every day than Astudillo.  So when everyone is healthy, he seems to be the logical first choice.  Don't have a clue what to do after that because that comes down to: 1) cutting back to 12 pitchers; 2) Adrianza, or 3) Astudillo.  

 

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

How can Astudillo ever hope to compete in stats like OBP and OPS when he is not going to draw any walks?  It should be obvious that he will continue to be a low OBP/OPS guy going forward.

Astudillo can be better in those areas -- if he has a good BABIP and/or power. Which is what he flashed last year in MLB. But in the last 4 years, he's only got about 225 PAs with a good BABIP, and about 750 now with a low BABIP. It may be a regular part of his game at higher levels of competition?

[Otto von Ballpark]

With Sano back, and assuming Cruz comes back, and Cron hitting well -- Garver is going to need to play catcher to get at-bats. He's not going to have 1B and DH available as much now as they were earlier in the season. Hence, less opportunity for Astudillo to catch. That's part of my thinking, in why I'd consider demoting Astudillo soon.

 

Whereas Adrianza and Arraez would seem to still have usefulness as utility infielders and pinch runners, with Marwin as a fourth outfielder.

[Danchat]

Astudillo is an easy choice when Garver comes back. His bat is supposed to be his strength but it's been a weakness this year. He's also "versatile" but plays each position poorly.

IMO he’s been a very good defensive catcher, which is a nice thing to have.

[SomeGuy]

 

Astudillo can be better in those areas -- if he has a good BABIP and/or power. Which is what he flashed last year in MLB. But in the last 4 years, he's only got about 225 PAs with a good BABIP, and about 750 now with a low BABIP. It may be a regular part of his game at higher levels of competition?

It seems like OBP is an area he could address. He leads the team in chase%. Until he takes more pitches, the strategy should be to throw him junk and watch him make weak contact. He is also last on the team in exit velocity so it is probably unlikely that power or BABIP are coming. I think its a glaring weakness in his game right now and a AAA stint would probably do him good.

Edited May 28, 2019 by SomeGuy

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think I would rather have seen him take a professional at bat in the 9th last night as opposed to the “swing first, swing second, swing some more and MAYBE if a pitch is a foot outside don’t swing” approach used by Mr. Rosario and Mr. Sano.

 

Sano has an OPS over 1000 since his return. What, exactly, are you looking for, expecting? By Fangraphs offensive measure, he's hitting like a top 5 3B in all the league.....

[VATwinsFan]

 

wondering if Turtle is going to get sent down. Arraez is hitting the cover off the ball, and Turtle hasn't been hitting well lately.

I think Jeffress might disagree.

 

Maybe.

[Doomtints]

 

That's a pretty bold forecast, for a guy who's never made a relief appearance in his MLB career. I'm not sure it's that straightforward, either in terms of performance or effects on his knee.

 

If it's not straightforward, does this mean you don't try it? Is staying the same any more "straightforward"?

 

Let's play a game ... spot the 3 years in this sample when Wade Davis was a starter. Number of relief appearances before those years: 0.

 

 

 

You can even see a year where he went to back to starting and then back to relief the year after. Number of people like you who no doubt said moving Davis to the pen wouldn't work: countless.

 

Pineda has the velocity to be a good set up guy and if the knee that kept him out of baseball at the end of last year is flaring up after two months, give something else a try. He can be valuable to the team as a reliever and he provides zero value if he can't play. The Twins have a glaring need for a guy who can do well in the 8th inning and right now a healthy Pineda is a hell of a great option to try if not the best option available.

Edited May 28, 2019 by Doomtints

[cmoss84]

A lot of valid points made throughout this debate. I trust the FO to make the right moves, whichever moves they make. 

 

Here's my take...time for Ehire to go. 

 

He is never going to be more than an average utility guy. In many cases, he would be valuable. I'm just not seeing it any more. Arraez can get groomed into playing 2B and/or UTIL next year. He can occasionally spell other IF spots (maybe 1 game a week at 2B/SS/3B). Having Gonzalez seems to afford them the opportunity to prepare Arraez vs. being cautious and keeping Ehire. As long as Arraez plays 3-4 times a week, he's getting great exposure and experience. 

 

(to add onto this, Astudillo staying on as catcher #3 and Util seems more valuable than Ehire)

Edited May 28, 2019 by cmoss84

[ashbury]

My take is pretty simple, in comparison to what I'm reading here. I don't believe today's pitching moves have much to do with the position players.

 

Ehire stays.

 

When Nelson comes off the IL, Luis goes down.

 

When Mitch is ready for duty behind the plate, Willians goes down.

 

If Mitch happens to be ready first, you could send either one down, and then the other afterward.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If it's not straightforward, does this mean you don't try it? Is staying the same any more "straightforward"?

 

Let's play a game ... spot the 3 years in this sample when Wade Davis was a starter. Number of relief appearances before those years: 0.

 

 

 

You can even see a year where he went to back to starting and then back to relief the year after. Number of people like you who no doubt said moving Davis to the pen wouldn't work: countless.

 

Pineda has the velocity to be a good set up guy and if the knee that kept him out of baseball at the end of last year is flaring up after two months, give something else a try. He can be valuable to the team as a reliever and he provides zero value if he can't play. The Twins have a glaring need for a guy who can do well in the 8th inning and right now a healthy Pineda is a hell of a great option to try if not the best option available.

I never said it wouldn't work. I just took issue with your statement "Pineda can probably have a sub-2.00 ERA as a bullpen arm", that's all.

[IndianaTwin]

 

Reality check: He is really injured. You can't put a player on the IL without doctor approval and without player approval. If a team manages to pay off a doctor, the player can still object to the league which brings in the MLB's doctors to make a determination. Similarly, doctor approval and player approval is required to take someone off the IL, with the same escalation path to MLB doctors if there is a disagreement.

 

Putting someone on the IL is a lot of paperwork.

 

In other words, this isn't a ploy to give him some rest.

 

This is the same knee Pineda tore up late last year and it makes sense that it would be sore.

 

Pineda can probably have a sub-2.00 ERA as a bullpen arm and the Twins need someone who can do that. He would be the ideal setup guy. Move him there when he gets back. This is going to be a nagging injury if they keep putting him out there for long stretches, and the Twins have to consider Pineda's future as a ballplayer.

 

I don't think of it as a ploy as much as preventative maintenance in responding to the early signs of an overuse injury (which can be knee as much as arm).

 

But it's also okay to be strategic and say that the schedule makes it make sense to take the rest now compared to trying to force one more outing.

 

I also get the sense that Rocco (and others in management) have the kind of demeanor that would even allow him to go to Pineda (and his agent) and say, "Mike, you're coming back from TJS and the knee issues at the end of last year. Guys in that situation have a tough time getting through the season without missing a start. Sometimes guys try to force it and they end up with a more significant injury. Let's brainstorm together about the most strategic time to take a well-planned rest, and it will benefit us both. You will stay healthier, which makes us a better team, and being able to pitch through the season will help your chances of getting that multi-year contract you're striving for. And by the way, when we get to August and you've indeed demonstrated to us that you're going to be healthy for the long haul, we've demonstrated to you that we are indeed concerned about your long-term health, and we're both lining ourselves up for the playoffs, let's sit down and talk about an extension."  

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

My take is pretty simple, in comparison to what I'm reading here. I don't believe today's pitching moves have much to do with the position players.

 

Ehire stays.

 

When Nelson comes off the IL, Luis goes down.

 

When Mitch is ready for duty behind the plate, Willians goes down.

 

If Mitch happens to be ready first, you could send either one down, and then the other afterward.

You think Smeltzer is sticking around until Pineda returns, despite the off days?

 

I guess he could earn it with a good start tonight, but my gut says they're going to use the spot to postpone any Arraez/Astudillo demotion.

[cmoss84]

 

My take is pretty simple, in comparison to what I'm reading here. I don't believe today's pitching moves have much to do with the position players.

 

Ehire stays.

 

When Nelson comes off the IL, Luis goes down.

 

When Mitch is ready for duty behind the plate, Willians goes down.

 

If Mitch happens to be ready first, you could send either one down, and then the other afterward.

I know there was a big thread on this, but it is an interesting topic. Why are you choosing Ehire over Luis?

You don't think Luis can get enough ABs? Afraid of losing an insurance policy if Arraez goes cold (in which case, isn't that Gonzalez?)?