Article: When the Twins Go Buying ... Who Are They Selling?

[Vanimal46]

Scherzer leads in fWAR for all pitchers with 2.6. 10th in bWAR with 2.2. He's still very much a stud.

[DocBauer]

I think that Lewis, Kirilloff and Graterol would be the first three players teams ask about. 

 

If the Reds call offering Luis Castillo, then yeah, these names have to be in play. 

 

But I'd be shocked if Lewis gets moved in any deal. 

 

-AND-

 

I think the Twins can add a significant piece(s) without moving their top prospects.

 

This!

 

Personally, I'd make a no trade list of Kiriloff, Lewis, Javier, Graterol and Balazovic. I'd make everyone else in the system available. That still leaves a ton of talent available to other teams! What's the expression, if it hurts to give someone up then you know it's fair value? I could make a list of 20 guys I'd really like to keep that I think have a chance to play ML ball. (For us or someone else).

 

I agree 100% a quality piece or two can be brought in without touching the guys on my list. The system is more than deep enough. (Though a few injuries have hurt some guys' value at the moment).

 

Don't get me wrong though if you were to trade for a legitimate top of the rotation arm I'm willing to move one of those guys in my list. Pitcher to acquire a pitcher for example. Do we need both Lewis and Javier when we have Polanco and other depth pieces? Well, I'd sure like to, but again, in the right BIG DEAL I`m ready to move one of them.

 

Personally, the one guy I would refuse to part with is Kiriloff. I get organizational depth but I think he's going to be special. And there could easily be a spot in a year or so for him daily at OF/1B/DH.

[ashbury]

Only thing wrong with this strategizing is that every team already has a certain number of guys just like the ones we are willing to part with. It's the ones we don't want to part with who will attract attention. Opinions in front offices will vary, but you could probably acquire a couple of very top-end players with our very best prospects, and if you could bundle up all the rest you couldn't get a third and fourth one. And if we totally gutted our farm, on the idea that we can restock in the next couple of drafts, well guess what, the other front offices will view it that way from their POV too, and not bother with our mid-tier guys.

 

You can never have too much pitching, so someone will take your prospects if your asking price in terms of MLB stars isn't too high. But pitching's what I don't want to part with either.

 

It's not that I over-value prospects and want to clutch them tightly, it's that you literally can't get that much for most of them unless you are willing to take talent that doesn't really change our 25-man roster.

 

So I'm back to peddling Larnach and then various guys like Celestino. Weak sauce for acquiring multiple difference-makers.

[jorgenswest]

Lewis, Kirilloff and Graterol still have a lot to prove. Lewis and Kirilloff have not shown that they dominate AA. Graterol has just.200 minor league innings in a career starting in 2015. Anyone of them should be available for a pitcher at the top of the rotation.

[twinfan]

Our offense is on fire but our pitching is also great right now. The offense will slow down- especially when we reach the post-season. However, you can never have enough pitching. I don't believe in Gonsalves and think he should be our biggest chip for Will Smith or Doolittle (whom we need). Then we have to be careful that we don't lose both Gibby and Odorizzi though neither is a #1. I'm not sold on Gordon either but some guys who are hot now (like Arraez) may not sustain it. What bothers me is that Rochester has no pitcher ready for the majors and, after seeing them last weekend, they do not look very good. At least the next few months will be interesting.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Here's an article on MLB.com speculating on pitchers who might be available this summer:


https://www.mlb.com/news/starting-pitcher-trade-rumors-bauer-bumgarner

Scherzer makes the list. No Grienke.

 

Cleveland will be an interesting team to watch. Two dominant pitchers on the DL... That may end their season, but I could see them simply unloading expiring contracts and making another run in 2021. The right answer may be to just tear it down. They could get a kings ransom for Kluber and Cleavinger this offseason. It would certainly speed things up for them. Though I'm not liking the idea of playing in the central with all 4 teams effectively tanking. I don't see Chicago taking that many leaps forward to make things competitive for 2021.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I would take anyone on that list... Except Boyd from the Tigers. I don't trust Gardy or Rick fixed him.

 

Some guys succeed despite of them... there was this guy named Santana that was pretty good for the Twins...

 

That said, I had a chance to run over the list. Scherzer is an obvious yes if he can be had. Syndergaard isn't doing well at all this year. I'm not sure that's what you want to target. I'm iffy on MadBum too. He's been injured for significant parts of the last 2 seasons and certainly doesn't look (as of now) like the MadBum of old. Could that change? Sure. But I'd rather them pick up someone who is pitching well now other than hoping he turns it around. Yes, I know that costs more, but I don't care. I want a difference maker. 

 

The rest of the guys I'd target, including Boyd. Boyd is an interesting one though. He was never a big named prospect, so there's no pedigree. All of his peripherals have made massive moves in the right direction this season. I'm not sure I'd use the term ace just yet to describe it... I'd like to see an encore season before using that term, but there's no question he's an upgrade right now. Here's an interesting piece on him. It was written April 3rd, so all I can really say is that he's sustained it. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Our offense is on fire but our pitching is also great right now. The offense will slow down- especially when we reach the post-season. However, you can never have enough pitching. I don't believe in Gonsalves and think he should be our biggest chip for Will Smith or Doolittle (whom we need). Then we have to be careful that we don't lose both Gibby and Odorizzi though neither is a #1. I'm not sold on Gordon either but some guys who are hot now (like Arraez) may not sustain it. What bothers me is that Rochester has no pitcher ready for the majors and, after seeing them last weekend, they do not look very good. At least the next few months will be interesting.

 

I'm really not worried about that in the short term. We cannot trade for someone and stash Pineda in Rochester.  It's an issue if multiple pitchers go down for extended periods of time, but not so much otherwise.

 

Granted, the depth has been hurt there. Wells is having TJS. Gonsalves has been hurt all season and currently has forearm issues (which is often a precursor to TJS).

 

Thorpe, Littell, and Stewart are fine. Stewart can hold his own here. Yeah, I'm not starting him in a playoff game, but he's kept us in games, which is what you want from your AAA depth. I still think Thorpe could surprise by year end, and I'm somewhat curious if this Littell to the pen thing is permanent. Graterol is a wild card too. He's hurt at the moment, but he's another one that could be added if needs be since he has to be added this offseason. Once we hit August timeframe, that one is much more likely.

[DutchFarmer]

 

Lewis, Kirilloff and Graterol still have a lot to prove. Lewis and Kirilloff have not shown that they dominate AA. Graterol has just.200 minor league innings in a career starting in 2015. Anyone of them should be available for a pitcher at the top of the rotation.

 

Completely agree, though that's not to say I think they should be actively looking to trade them. However, if Washington - just as a made-up example - were willing to give up Strasburg for one of the three plus a mid-tier prospect, wouldn't that be pretty appealing? Or even one of them straight up for Scherzer (or some real reckless speculation here: Strasburg and Scherzer for 2 of the 3, plus 2-3 mid-tier prospects). Our lineup backing up Scherzer/Strasburg, Berrios, Perez in a short playoff series inspires a lot more confidence than Berrios, Perez, Gibson/Odo. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Completely agree, though that's not to say I think they should be actively looking to trade them. However, if Washington - just as a made-up example - were willing to give up Strasburg for one of the three plus a mid-tier prospect, wouldn't that be pretty appealing? Or even one of them straight up for Scherzer (or some real reckless speculation here: Strasburg and Scherzer for 2 of the 3, plus 2-3 mid-tier prospects). Our lineup backing up Scherzer/Strasburg, Berrios, Perez in a short playoff series inspires a lot more confidence than Berrios, Perez, Gibson/Odo.

The Pohlad's aren't authorizing a $189 million payroll, which is what adding Scherzer AND Strasburg would bring us to.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Completely agree, though that's not to say I think they should be actively looking to trade them. However, if Washington - just as a made-up example - were willing to give up Strasburg for one of the three plus a mid-tier prospect, wouldn't that be pretty appealing? Or even one of them straight up for Scherzer (or some real reckless speculation here: Strasburg and Scherzer for 2 of the 3, plus 2-3 mid-tier prospects). Our lineup backing up Scherzer/Strasburg, Berrios, Perez in a short playoff series inspires a lot more confidence than Berrios, Perez, Gibson/Odo. 

 

I don't see Washington trading either... They are having a bad year, but I think they are more likely to get rid of expiring contracts... But let's say one is on the market, yeah, we're sending one of the top 3 their way. No way around that. I guess the question is who.

 

I'd side with sending Kirilloff away personally, though I wouldn't lose sleep over Lewis or Graterol. My preference though would be to keep them. If I were to create an untouchables list, it would probably be starting pitching candidates such as Blazovich or Graterol… Flip side on Graterol though is that he's always hurt, so perhaps he's the guy to send packing. I'm a bit leery of pitchers who have great upside but cannot stay healthy. 

 

The nice thing about the way this team is composed is that I don't think they will need to raid the farm system to strengthen themselves for the playoffs. They can sign Kimbrel if they think he can contribute (and I've got to think he'd be interested in coming here right now too). That's just cash. I think they should pick up one more reliever via trade. Will Smith or someone like that would certainly work. He won't come cheap, but he won't cost one of the top prospects. 

 

I do think that some of our AAA pitching gets sent away. I'm fine with that too. None of them are going to be top pieces in a trade, but we have too many and they are still useful as 2nd/3rd pieces. Plus, a tanking team can develop a guy like that in the majors and potentially flip him for prospects in a few years even if he turns out to be mediocre. 

[Mike Sixel]

Every time I read people say so and so is untouchable,I look at Romero's numbers this year..... And wonder why anyone thinks anyone is untouchable....

[ashbury]

Every time I read people say so and so is untouchable,I look at Romero's numbers this year..... And wonder why anyone thinks anyone is untouchable....

Every time I read people say we should go out and acquire a controllable ace, I look at Syndergaard's numbers this year..... And wonder why anyone thinks anyone is a sure thing....

 

I don't have the numbers, but perhaps prospects do flame out in greater numbers than established veterans suddenly fizzle - and then either one bounce back. But that's why you have bundle more than one of the good youngsters to get the good veteran. There just aren't any sure paths to acquiring the top-end talent we all want.

[darin617]

 

I have questions about Bumgardner. In a trade or in free agency we would be paying the price for the Bumgardner that was the world series MVP, which is to say it will cost a lot. He currently carries a mid 4 ERA in the national league and doesn't seem to be getting past the 6th inning. Has he just been pitching in bad luck or has age started to take its toll? 

 

Few other things against Madbum, i would expect most of his starts this year are not against teams with a DH and he would be happy on a contender to try to turn it into a huge contract this offseason but being here would limit him being able to hit.
 

[DutchFarmer]

 

The Pohlad's aren't authorizing a $189 million payroll, which is what adding Scherzer AND Strasburg would bring us to.

 

Yeah, you're likely right. Though, to be fair, due to pro-ration it would be a lot less. Additionally, I'm guessing Strasburg opts out this offseason, so the future allotment would also be a lot less. With that being said, it was just a pie-in-the-sky thought...

[Linus]

Every time I read people say so and so is untouchable,I look at Romero's numbers this year..... And wonder why anyone thinks anyone is untouchable....

Agreed. I would say Graterol / Balazovic are off limits. Everyone else is in play including Lewis

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, you're likely right. Though, to be fair, due to pro-ration it would be a lot less. Additionally, I'm guessing Strasburg opts out this offseason, so the future allotment would also be a lot less. With that being said, it was just a pie-in-the-sky thought...

Pro-ration would only matter for 2019 -- although even just a half-season of those two pitchers would add $35 mil to our 2019 payroll, putting us up around $155 mil. 

 

Strasburg and Scherzer are due a combined $61 mil AAV over the next 2.5-4.5 years. If Strasburg didn't opt out, we'd either have to slash significant payroll elsewhere or we'd be up over $180 mil for 2020. Even without Strasburg, Scherzer would push it to $155 mil.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If you trade for an ace that is being paid ace like money you better be sure he will continue to be an ace.

Ace money in average annual value, sure. But if you're trading for a guy, you're getting a significant discount in terms of years -- aces on the open market get 6-7 year guarantees, as opposed to the 2.5 years remaining on Greinke's deal.

[KFEY93]

 

That seems like unnecessary fanaticism.

DONT JUDGE ME! 

[Major League Ready]

 

Ace money in average annual value, sure. But if you're trading for a guy, you're getting a significant discount in terms of years -- aces on the open market get 6-7 year guarantees, as opposed to the 2.5 years remaining on Greinke's deal.

 

True.  It's also true that historically SPs receiving those contracts have performed much better the 1st 3 years than the last three years. The Verlanders of the world are in the minority. Sherzer's contract is also heavily back end weighted. There is no way the Twins are taking on this year and two more at an AAV of $42M, especially given he is already 34 y/o.

Edited May 27, 2019 by Major League Ready

[Otto von Ballpark]

True. It's also true that historically SPs receiving those contracts have performed much better the 1st 3 years than the last three years.

Sure, although the context of my post was that a 2.5 year contract isn't really "paying for an ace" as compared to the FA market. So we don't necessarily need to receive ace performance, or equal performance to the last 3 years, to make taking on the remaining 2.5 year deal worthwhile. The Astros didn't need Verlander to be an ace to justify their cost, for example.

 

Although I'd guess the year 4-6 forecast is a bit better for guys that have been great over years 1-3.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sherzer's contract is also heavily back end weighted. There is no way the Twins are taking on this year and two more at an AAV of $42M, especially given he is already 34 y/o.

It's a little backloaded, but the salary figure is only $35 mil AAV for 2019-2021. (The Nationals are responsible for any future signing bonus payments.)

 

With deferrals, the present day value might even be about 10% lower. (MLB valued the original $210 mil deal at $191 mil for luxury tax purposes.)

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/washington-nationals/

 

Still a lot of money, but worth it to a number of clubs (including Washington, which is why I wouldn't expect him to be traded).

Edited May 28, 2019 by spycake