Article: When the Twins Go Buying ... Who Are They Selling?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They are only in contention by looking at their record today.  They had an unsustainable little run a few weeks back that has masked their standing.

FWIW, Arizona had 11% postseason odds before the season at Fangraphs, and stand at 14% today. That's not great, but it's not negligible, especially in a division with the Dodgers. It was their second highest preseason odds since they signed Greinke. (They're also -3 Pythag and -2 BaseRuns this year, which suggests some bad luck so far.)

[dgwills]

There's no way that the Twin's trade top prospects for players making 20+ million a year. It's just not wise to put all of your eggs in one basket. Not to mention Falvey has explicitly stated he's wary of large contracts. You really don't even see large market teams making trades like that anymore (Remember the Giancarlo Stanton trade).

Hopefully the Twins can move some of their middling prospects that are on the 40-man roster, but that can be hard to do. 

Either way the Twins are winning now and things look bright for the future as well.

[Major League Ready]

 

I am not dreaming of Scherzer or Snydergaard or any other stud.  When I look at the team acquisitions they choose lower ranked, upside arm - Odorizzi, Perez, Parker.  

 

But my real thought process is the analysis of what we will have next year. I am not willing to have a one year run and collapse again, so the questions about Cron, Gibson, Schoop...are essential to this equation.  Are we willing to go from bombers to good batters?  Will Kiriloff at 1B, Arraez at 2B be okay after Cron and Schoop have lit things up?

 

In the rotation I have already got Pineda gone (and even replaced in the rotation this year) but Odorizzi has been our clear number 2.  Gibson has stepped back and could be gone.  Perez, we hope, has found magic that will keep him going.  But that is three SP for next year and who replaces them?  In our minor only Graterol looks like he has a chance so if we do not acquire another starter the rotation for 2020 looks weak.

The BP has some very replaceable arms and none in the minors.  

 

So who do I trade?  If I am going for front line talent I trade Lewis or Arreaz.  If it is just prospects then everyone but Lewis, Kiriloff, Graterol, and the pitcher we have the most confidence in with the lower minors.

I a

 

Cron is not a free agent until 2021 so Schoop is the only position player in question.

 

They will shed $40M between Schoop / Reed / Castro / Hughes Santana and Morrison. That allows for them to easily retain Odorizzi and/or Gibson. Best case scenario, retain one of Odorizzi / Gibson and sign a front of the rotation FA.  We are waaaaay more attractive to a FA pitcher now.  They also have Mejia and a few prospects (Stewart / Gonsalves / Smeltzer) that can fill Pineda’s departure.

 

Of course, we have quite a few guys that will get bumps next year but revenue should also be up given the improved product and excitement around this team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

They will shed $40M between Schoop / Reed / Castro / Hughes Santana and Morrison.

FYI, I think that group is only about $30 mil this year.

[mikelink45]

 

Cron is not a free agent until 2021 so Schoop is the only position player in question.

 

They will shed $40M between Schoop / Reed / Castro / Hughes Santana and Morrison. That allows for them to easily retain Odorizzi and/or Gibson. Best case scenario, retain one of Odorizzi / Gibson and sign a front of the rotation FA.  We are waaaaay more attractive to a FA pitcher now.  They also have Mejia and a few prospects (Stewart / Gonsalves / Smeltzer) that can fill Pineda’s departure.

 

Of course, we have quite a few guys that will get bumps next year but revenue should also be up given the improved product and excitement around this team.

I appreciate your update, but would not expect much from the list of prospect pitchers.  I had higher hopes for them two years ago, but not now.  However, I do think Pineda needs to be gone and it will not take an impact pitcher to do it. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Maybe a Greinke deal is more likely relative to a Scherzer deal, but they're both so unlikely in absolute terms that I'm not sure the distinction matters.

 

It is tiresome to have you reply with strained evidence, then arrive at the same conclusion, and then reverse that conclusion in the same sentence.  It implies you are trying to make an argument where one is unnecessary.

 

The D-backs are far more likely to be full blown sellers.  They were during the offseason, unlike the Nationals.  They also have far more payroll constraints than the Nationals.  I won't speculate about Greinke's no trade clause because I am not in his head nor do I know his motivations.  I will speak strictly about the situations of the teams and their general plan going into the season.

 

It is far more likely that a team that let go of 3 of their top 6 hitters by fWAR and by far their best pitcher before the season is going to continue to sell than the team that put 150M into Corbin and tried, in vain, to retain their biggest FA loss.  So I find the idea that Greinke will move as a far more likely scenario, in general, than Scherzer given the paths the teams have laid out.

[2wins87]

I keep coming back to Toronto when looking at trades.  Stroman has already been mentioned, but I'd also be pretty interested in Ken Giles.  He's in the same place as Pressly was last year in terms of service time, but will be a little more costly in arbitration so likely would command a slightly lesser prospect package.

 

We know that Toronto is looking to build around Vladito with guys in a similar service class, so basically guys that will be ready by next year.

 

The AA/AAA depth right now looks better than last year, and there are a bunch of guys that could easily be considered redundant while still being interesting in a trade.  From a quick perusal of my list:  Arraez, Gordon, Alcala, Raley, Smeltzer, Wade, Rooker, Blankenhorn (and maybe Cave too).  They could easily take a couple of those guys off the table if they want to work them into their 2020 plans and still be able to present an excellent prospect package to Toronto.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think it is also worthwhile to review what happened last year.  The 2 trades that had the biggest impact on the playoffs were made by the Red Sox.  Depending on the source, Beeks was the 7th ranked 2018 preseason Red Sox prospect and Espinal was unranked (or more accurate to say I could not find his ranking).  Although hindsight is always 20/20, the Steve Pearce acquisition was listed as an afterthought on the deadline trade summary.

 

1B/OF Steve Pearce and cash considerations from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for minor league INF Santiago Espinal

 

RHP Nathan Eovaldi to Red Sox; LHP Jalen Beeks to Rays

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-trades-news-rumors-trade-deadline-yankees-braves-dodgers-cubs-red-sox/zpm9eicioqzl1l0r90ftoio3a

 

Of course, the year before it was the Astros trading 3 of their top 11 for Verlander.....and then in the off season trading for another SP......so I think 1 year of trends might not be a true indicator.....

[ChrisKnutson]

I am not dreaming of Scherzer or Snydergaard or any other stud. When I look at the team acquisitions they choose lower ranked, upside arm - Odorizzi, Perez, Parker.

 

But my real thought process is the analysis of what we will have next year. I am not willing to have a one year run and collapse again, so the questions about Cron, Gibson, Schoop...are essential to this equation. Are we willing to go from bombers to good batters? Will Kiriloff at 1B, Arraez at 2B be okay after Cron and Schoop have lit things up?

 

In the rotation I have already got Pineda gone (and even replaced in the rotation this year) but Odorizzi has been our clear number 2. Gibson has stepped back and could be gone. Perez, we hope, has found magic that will keep him going. But that is three SP for next year and who replaces them? In our minor only Graterol looks like he has a chance so if we do not acquire another starter the rotation for 2020 looks weak.

 

The BP has some very replaceable arms and none in the minors.

 

So who do I trade? If I am going for front line talent I trade Lewis or Arreaz. If it is just prospects then everyone but Lewis, Kiriloff, Graterol, and the pitcher we have the most confidence in with the lower minors.

I a

Honestly, I wouldn’t be suprised if the FO office trades Cron and all of Schoop/Gibson/Pineda/Castro walk next offseason (keeping only Cruz and Gonzalez). While this could very well have it’s drawbacks, having a rotation of Berrios, Graterol, Odorizzi, Perez, and possibly Stroman definitely wouldn’t be one of them.

 

However, when it comes to the lineup, having Arraez, Marwin, etc hold down the fort at 1B/2B until Lewis and Kirilloff arrive does seem pretty risky to me, especially if we still plan on competing for a WS in 2020. Then again, depending on where Lewis and Kirilloff end their 2019 seasons (hopefully Rochester, maybe Target Field for AK) and how well they perform, we may not even have to worry about that, or at least not for very long. And since it seems like Buxton, Sano, Polanco, Kepler, Odorizzi, Perez, and Garver are all conveniently breaking out at the same time after years of scuffling, we may not even need all our veterans next year.

Edited May 25, 2019 by ChrisKnutson

[Otto von Ballpark]

It is tiresome to have you reply with strained evidence, then arrive at the same conclusion, and then reverse that conclusion in the same sentence. It implies you are trying to make an argument where one is unnecessary.

 

The D-backs are far more likely to be full blown sellers. They were during the offseason, unlike the Nationals. They also have far more payroll constraints than the Nationals. I won't speculate about Greinke's no trade clause because I am not in his head nor do I know his motivations. I will speak strictly about the situations of the teams and their general plan going into the season.

 

It is far more likely that a team that let go of 3 of their top 6 hitters by fWAR and by far their best pitcher before the season is going to continue to sell than the team that put 150M into Corbin and tried, in vain, to retain their biggest FA loss. So I find the idea that Greinke will move as a far more likely scenario, in general, than Scherzer given the paths the teams have laid out.

No need to make this personal.

 

I shouldn't have invoked Scherzer, but suffice to say, I just wouldn't group Greinke alongside Bumgarner or Stroman, that's all. I think that overrates the likelihood of a Greinke trade to the Twins. We know the Twins are on his no trade list, for whatever reason, and MLBTR reported the no trade clause was a "major impediment" -- and even if you get past that, either the Twins have to take on significant salary or give up significant prospects to get Arizona to eat significant cash. So I'd leave Greinke in the longer shot group, for now.

 

I'd put his teammate Robbie Ray in that primary group, though. FA after 2020 like Stroman.

[TheLeviathan]

 

No need to make this personal.

I'd put his teammate Robbie Ray in that primary group, though. FA after 2020 like Stroman.

 

The way you approached my post mischaracterized it in order to disagreeably agree with me at length.  I mean....what's the point of that?

 

In any case, I would agree that Greinke is far closer to Scherzer territory than MadBum or Stroman.  (For a number of reasons, contracts, team control, and talent are mixed in as well)

 

Robbie Ray may be available, but he is not a pitcher I'd want the Twins to target unless they think they can clean up some of his difficulties.  Namely: he's basically a 5 inning starter.  Tons of Ks and a bit of a tease, but not someone I'd feel great about relying on come playoff time.  But you're right to put him on the list of players to consider.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The way you approached my post mischaracterized it in order to disagreeably agree with me at length. I mean....what's the point of that?

Not my intent at all! Which post? Feel free to privaye message me. I just saw the name Greinke next to Bumgarner and Stroman without any qualifiers, and I didn't want folks to assume they were in an equal group of difficulty/likelihood -- not everyone is aware of the no-trade thing (it is somewhat unusual to see the Twins on such a list!).

[Kelly Vance]

 

FWIW, Scherzer's deal does NOT contain any no-trade protection -- but he will gain full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player at the end of the 2019 season.

 

So if they want to trade him, there might be some impetus to get a deal done during the 2019 season.

In a contending year, they can't make the deal too soon

[Kelly Vance]

 

Honestly, I wouldn’t be suprised if the FO office trades Cron and all of Schoop/Gibson/Pineda/Castro walk next offseason (keeping only Cruz and Gonzalez). While this could very well have it’s drawbacks, having a rotation of Berrios, Graterol, Odorizzi, Perez, and possibly Stroman definitely wouldn’t be one of them.

However, when it comes to the lineup, having Arraez, Marwin, etc hold down the fort at 1B/2B until Lewis and Kirilloff arrive does seem pretty risky to me, especially if we still plan on competing for a WS in 2020. Then again, depending on where Lewis and Kirilloff end their 2019 seasons (hopefully Rochester, maybe Target Field for AK) and how well they perform, we may not even have to worry about that, or at least not for very long. And since it seems like Buxton, Sano, Polanco, Kepler, Odorizzi, Perez, and Garver are all conveniently breaking out at the same time after years of scuffling, we may not even need all our veterans next year.

Maybe that is similar to what Cleveland thought.   Cron is staying. He and Rocco go way back. Plus he is better than we thought and some of us were high on him right after the deal. I think we extend Rosie and Buck and Cron and try to get Berrios for 5. Extend Odo. Sano too. 

[Kelly Vance]

 

The Twins need to add to the top if their rotation.

The Twins need to add to the top of their bullpen.

No one should be untouchable.

Totally agree. Because its about winning, not how good the organization looks on paper. 

[Jham]

Isn't Graterol getting shut down? One less bargaining chip...

[TheLeviathan]

 

Isn't Graterol getting shut down? One less bargaining chip...

 

We'll have to see for how long.  Certainly it doesn't help and it being a shoulder issue is perhaps the worst part of all.

 

Secretly, I sorta hope he isn't dealt anyway.  He just looks like a major leaguer - love his pace, he looks like a strong and durable dude, and my god that slider is something else.

[Jham]

Other than Pineda, who would be unneeded if we picked up another starter (and who I don't trust in the pen), who?

 

Pineda makes sense if they picked up Stroman and none of the other starters are hurt, but I don't think this FO is going to sell pieces at the deadline when the team continues to look like a team that can go deep into the playoffs.

The old twins never negotiated contracts midseason. I'd look to extend some guys. But if an nl contender wanted to trade for Castro? If we could get a King's ransom for Odo or Gibby? If we wanted to bring up Kiriloff or roll with Arraez and teams wanted Sano or Schoop more than they wanted Dozier but less than Machado? If we're concerned Cruz's wrist will linger and have doubts about picking up his option, but teams are calling? Right now, it appears that we don't need everyone in order to win. We traded Pressley last year even though we needed him. And Garcia the year before. I think we'll trade prospects to upgrade the pen. I think we'll look to add starters with control and shed a starter(s) who are likely to walk while their value is high. Again, not advocating for a limited sell, just think it's very possible.

[drock2190]

If the Twins trade for Grienke the front office should be fired. Huge contract, declining velocity and gets lit up by the good hitting teams (Dodgers). At least with MadBum he's rebounded this year and isn't in his twilight years yet.

[ashbury]

If the Twins trade for Grienke the front office should be fired. Huge contract, declining velocity and gets lit up by the good hitting teams (Dodgers).

He's had 10 good starts this year, and one stinker. That stinker was Opening Day. By good starts, I mean 6 or more innings with 3 or fewer earned runs; 8 of the starts have been better than this minimum. Season-long, opposing batters have an OPS under .600 against him, versus a league OPS above .730. He strikes out plenty of guys, and walks hardly any. He goes out there every fifth day, just like a young pup.

 

I really don't know what standard you are holding pitchers to.

 

Sure he's expensive and I'm not completely sure we should go after him for this plus 2 more years. But as 2.5 year gambles at $35M per year go, he remains a pretty good one.

[Major League Ready]

 

FYI, I think that group is only about $30 mil this year.

 

Reed 8.5 / Hughes 5,950 / Morrison 1M / Santana 1M so 16,450,000 from players they have cut.

Catro 8.0M / Pineda 8.0M and Pineda 7.5M = 39.95M

[Major League Ready]

 

I appreciate your update, but would not expect much from the list of prospect pitchers.  I had higher hopes for them two years ago, but not now.  However, I do think Pineda needs to be gone and it will not take an impact pitcher to do it. 

 

I am prioritizing a front of the rotation FA starting Pitcher.  Very rough estimate … That addition and the increases due current players (contractually & arbitration) will be around $40M. Therefore, the retention of / Odorizzi / Schoop and a fifth starter will have to come from an increase in payroll. (rough estimate $35M).

 

We can’t have it all so what is the best allocation of resources.  I think the addition of a Bumgardner or Cole makes for a much better playoff team.  The difference of Schoop vs Arraez or Gordon is probably 12M and the difference. That money is better spent in a another starter or retaining both Gibson and Odorizzi as opposed to keeping just one, IMO.  The same could be said for the difference between one of our prospects vs a free agent firth starter.

[USAFChief]

Here's an article on MLB.com speculating on pitchers who might be available this summer:

 

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/starting-pitcher-trade-rumors-bauer-bumgarner

 

Scherzer makes the list. No Grienke.

[Vanimal46]

Here's an article on MLB.com speculating on pitchers who might be available this summer:

 

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/starting-pitcher-trade-rumors-bauer-bumgarner

 

Scherzer makes the list. No Grienke.

I would take anyone on that list... Except Boyd from the Tigers. I don't trust Gardy or Rick fixed him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Reed 8.5 / Hughes 5,950 / Morrison 1M / Santana 1M so 16,450,000 from players they have cut.

Catro 8.0M / Pineda 8.0M and Pineda 7.5M = 39.95M

Ah, you left Pineda out of your original list:

 

They will shed $40M between Schoop / Reed / Castro / Hughes Santana and Morrison.

[james2334]

I have questions about Bumgardner. In a trade or in free agency we would be paying the price for the Bumgardner that was the world series MVP, which is to say it will cost a lot. He currently carries a mid 4 ERA in the national league and doesn't seem to be getting past the 6th inning. Has he just been pitching in bad luck or has age started to take its toll? 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Here's an article on MLB.com speculating on pitchers who might be available this summer:

 

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/starting-pitcher-trade-rumors-bauer-bumgarner

 

Scherzer makes the list. No Grienke.

The list seems to be written from the perspective of whom the Padres might acquire. As a division rival who's more likely to hang in the race than the Giants, Arizona might find it extra hard to come to an agreement with San Diego about a non-rental asset like Greinke.

 

Edit to add: the Padres are also on Greinke's no-trade list.

Edited May 26, 2019 by spycake

[TheLeviathan]

 

The list seems to be written from the perspective of whom the Padres might acquire. As a division rival who's more likely to hang in the race than the Giants, Arizona might find it extra hard to come to an agreement with San Diego about a non-rental asset like Greinke.

Edit to add: the Padres are also on Greinke's no-trade list.

 

His contract is probably another stumbling block given the money they doled out for Hosmer and Machado.

[drock2190]

 

He's had 10 good starts this year, and one stinker. That stinker was Opening Day. By good starts, I mean 6 or more innings with 3 or fewer earned runs; 8 of the starts have been better than this minimum. Season-long, opposing batters have an OPS under .600 against him, versus a league OPS above .730. He strikes out plenty of guys, and walks hardly any. He goes out there every fifth day, just like a young pup.

 

I really don't know what standard you are holding pitchers to.

 

Sure he's expensive and I'm not completely sure we should go after him for this plus 2 more years. But as 2.5 year gambles at $35M per year go, he remains a pretty good one.

 

If you trade for an ace that is being paid ace like money you better be sure he will continue to be an ace. Look at the advanced numbers for Grienke, his swinging strike percentage is below 10%. Come playoff time against the big dogs he better be able to induce some swinging strikes. About every time he plays the Dodgers he gets blown up. You think he is going to fare better against the Yankees or the Astros?

[TheLeviathan]

 

If you trade for an ace that is being paid ace like money you better be sure he will continue to be an ace. Look at the advanced numbers for Grienke, his swinging strike percentage is below 10%. Come playoff time against the big dogs he better be able to induce some swinging strikes. About every time he plays the Dodgers he gets blown up. You think he is going to fare better against the Yankees or the Astros?

 

He's 6-3 with a 2.69 ERA against the Astros.  So....if past results are your basis...he seems like he'll be fine.

 

MadBum isn't pitching like an ace right now and even Max Scherzer isn't at his same elite level right now.  There are no sure things in baseball but I feel quite confident any of the guys being discussed are a huge upgrade over the arms on this team right now that would be slotted in the playoffs.