Article: When the Twins Go Buying ... Who Are They Selling?

[ChrisKnutson]

They can make the team better w/o giving up their top 7-10 prospects?

 

Also, this is a bird in hand situation....everything is going well, and the players are healthy. That doesn't happen every year, how many years were Mauer and Morneau healthy and great together? If you aren't willing to strike this year, you never will be.

I get what you mean, but cmon now, you don’t think any of Jeffers, Baddoo, Gordon, Rortvedt, Severino, Gonsalves, Thorpe, Blankenhorn, Alcala, Celestino, Enlow, Arraez, Cave, and Rooker could bring back anything that would substantially improve this team??

 

Our window pretty wide open, which means I’d definitely pursue better quality than one start from Jaime Garcia, but I’d also like to hold on to some of our top 10, which would give us the flexibility to improve our team next offseason and next season’s deadline. I mean, despite being WS contenders for the past 2 seasons, the Astros have still managed to hold onto Kyle Tucker, Forrest Whitley, J.B. Bukaukas, Yordan Alvarez, and Corbin Martin, why can’t we, at the very least, hold onto Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balazovic, Larnach, and Duran for now?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I figured for 2 2/3 years, the Twins should pay for 2 2/3 of the 7 years contract, which would be about $80m. Take on the $7.5 payment this year, the $15m the next two and $6m in each year from '22-'28.

On the money, I suspect Washington would simply be responsible for the signing bonus, and the acquiring team would take on the annual salary / deferments earned for 2019-2021. Not much more than your estimate, though -- $93 mil at the moment, and which may only be ~$74 mil in present-day money due to deferments.

 

The Twins could have a leg up on some bidders, though, because that money would put some of them over (or further over) the luxury tax threshold. They might need to send back some dead money to Washington. Either way, it would take elite prospects to get it done, though.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The cost would likely be the pitcher the Nationals want, the hitter the Nationals want and the another top 10 prospect...maybe the Twins get one veto.

 

Kirilloff, Graterol/Balazovic, Javier... seems... maybe a little light?

It does seem a little light, in this context. Washington isn't in a tear-down mode, so I think they'd want elite prospects that could contribute very, very soon (even Lewis might seem a bit far off right now), and at positions where they don't already have assets. Kirilloff might have to play 1B for them, which is perhaps sub-optimal. Are the other pieces good enough to make up for that?

[JW24]

I haven't seen anyone discussing this possibility yet, but is there any news coming out of Oakland regarding the availability of Blake Treinen? He is arbitration eligible next year and then a FA in 2021.

 

Lou Trivino is another possibility as I look at Oakland's bullpen. With Oakland sitting at .500 and no real chance of winning their division, I would guess they will be sellers at deadline time again.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I get what you mean, but cmon now, you don’t think any of Jeffers, Baddoo, Gordon, Rortvedt, Severino, Gonsalves, Thorpe, Blankenhorn, Alcala, Celestino, Enlow, Arraez, Cave, and Rooker could bring back anything that would substantially improve this team??

Our window pretty wide open, which means I’d definitely pursue better quality than one start from Jaime Garcia, but I’d also like to hold on to some of our top 10, which would give us the flexibility to improve our team next offseason and next season’s deadline. I mean, despite being WS contenders for the past 2 seasons, the Astros have still managed to hold onto Kyle Tucker, Forrest Whitley, J.B. Bukaukas, Yordan Alvarez, and Corbin Martin, why can’t we, at the very least, hold onto Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balazovic, Larnach, and Duran for now?

 

Astros sent their number 3, 9, and 11 prospects for Verlander.......

[Mr. Brooks]

Astros sent their number 3, 9, and 11 prospects for Verlander.......

Verlander had a full no trade clause. He didn't seem interested in going anywhere else but Houston. Tough to squeeze max value from a single bidder.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Verlander had a full no trade clause. He didn't seem interested in going anywhere else but Houston. Tough to squeeze max value from a single bidder.

 

Astros sent number 5 and 15 for Cole.

[Mike Sixel]

You get great players by trading great prospects, that's how it generally works......

[AJswarley]

Outside Twin's Daily, I don't recall most websites loving Gonsalves........but it should remind everyone why "untouchable" or "can't fail" or "worst case he's helpful" just isn't true....

So you don’t remember him as a Top 100 prospect for a few years in a row topping out in the 60’s range (if I remember correctly)

[IndianaTwin]

It goes without saying, but nobody's said it yet, so I will. This is a whole lot more fun conversation than, "Who can we get for Dozier?"

[Mike Sixel]

 

So you don’t remember him as a Top 100 prospect for a few years in a row topping out in the 60’s range (if I remember correctly)

 

If he hit 60s, I stand corrected.......also, sort of proves the point that some guys should be traded for actual MLB players, and not counted on.

 

Of course, he can still be a legit MLB player, but his stuff isn't GREAT, and he was hurt for some time....

Edited May 24, 2019 by Mike Sixel

[Mr. Brooks]

You get great players by trading great prospects, that's how it generally works......

Sorry, I misunderstood. I thought you were arguing the opposite of what you actually are. My mistake.

[AJswarley]

If he hit 60s, I stand corrected.......

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017/?list=prospects

 

He was #64 and Gordon was #30.

He was lower in 2016 with Jay high on that list

Edited May 24, 2019 by AJswarley

[USAFChief]

You want them to add a #1 pitcher and/or a closer...

 

but don't want a "significant piece"?

 

I'd say those are the most significant pieces they'd be looking to add... and the most costly.

And you want them to add a #1 starter, but not at the cost of any of their top prospects?

 

The original post led me to believe you wouldn't trade any of them.

 

In which case, the "significant" help won't really be significant.

 

Adding a guy in the 4th spot of the rotation will make no difference in the post season.

 

Add a guy that pushes Berrios down to #2.

 

THAT has a chance to make a difference.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Verlander had a full no trade clause. He didn't seem interested in going anywhere else but Houston. Tough to squeeze max value from a single bidder.

 

three guys in Detroit's top 10 seems like a good price to me 

 

edit:ninja'd by your response!

[Mr. Brooks]

So you don’t remember him as a Top 100 prospect for a few years in a row topping out in the 60’s range (if I remember correctly)

According to bbref, the following are his recorded appearances in national top 100 lists:

 

Baseball America:

2017: #99

2018: #97

 

MLB Pipeline:

2017: #92

2018: #78

 

Edit: Saw your link. Bbref must only show preseason rankings.

Edited May 24, 2019 by Mr. Brooks

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017/?list=prospects

He was #64 and Gordon was #30.
He was lower in 2016 with Jay high on that list

I'm not sure that's a reliable list, as I think it was a midseason update, and those tend to remove graduates (note no Bellinger on that 2017 list) but may not properly re-order the remaining players?

 

B-Ref archives preseason rankings from BA, MLB, and BP. They have Gonsalves at #78 by MLB pre-2018, and that was his highest ranking:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gonsal001ste

 

If he was ever truly considered #64 overall, it was brief and a decidedly minority opinion.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I figured for 2 2/3 years, the Twins should pay for 2 2/3 of the 7 years contract, which would be about $80m. Take on the $7.5 payment this year, the $15m the next two and $6m in each year from '22-'28.

 

The cost would likely be the pitcher the Nationals want, the hitter the Nationals want and the another top 10 prospect...maybe the Twins get one veto.

 

Kirilloff, Graterol/Balazovic, Javier... seems... maybe a little light?

 

Personally, I don't think the market price would bear that... and as others have noted, Washington is likely to shed expiring contracts, but not Sherzer. In today's market where no one wants to spend high dollars on aging FAs or give up their prospects, I think the market value for Scherzer would be lower unless Washington is eating a lot of that contract.

 

Certainly could be wrong. 

[AJswarley]

If he was ever truly considered #64 overall, it was brief and a decidedly minority opinion.

 

The point that I was trying to make is still stands. many thought highly of him, not just those of us on TD.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins need to add to the top if their rotation.

 

The Twins need to add to the top of their bullpen.

 

No one should be untouchable.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Personally, I don't think the market price would bear that... and as others have noted, Washington is likely to shed expiring contracts, but not Sherzer. In today's market where no one wants to spend high dollars on aging FAs or give up their prospects, I think the market value for Scherzer would be lower unless Washington is eating a lot of that contract.

 

Certainly could be wrong. 

I think a number of teams would love to sign a guy like Scherzer to a 2-3 deal at a high AAV right now -- and that's exactly what they'd be paying in prospects to acquire from Washington. It's the longer term commitments that generally scare them off.

 

In that sense, Jeremy's proposal might be an accurate market offer -- but Washington might prefer to keep Scherzer under those conditions anyway.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The point that I was trying to make is still stands. many thought highly of him, not just those of us on TD.

Well, the other issue is, not all prospect rankings are equal in terms of value. I think the general consensus was that Gonsalves was rarely considered to have top-of-the-rotation potential -- but had a relatively high floor. That may be enough to get onto a few top 100 lists, but not enough to generate any significant trade interest.

 

For example, Adalberto Mejia snuck onto one of those midseason top 100 update lists once with a similar profile (and was probably bubbling just under Gonsalves on others, I'd estimate around 130) -- and all he returned in trade was 1.5 seasons of Eduardo Nunez.

 

I'd guess it's more likely no one was ever really willing to give up meaningful value in trade for Gonsalves, rather than the Twins held on to him too long.

[markos]

 

And you want them to add a #1 starter, but not at the cost of any of their top prospects?

The original post led me to believe you wouldn't trade any of them.

In which case, the "significant" help won't really be significant.

Adding a guy in the 4th spot of the rotation will make no difference in the post season.

Add a guy that pushes Berrios down to #2.

THAT has a chance to make a difference.

Maybe? For some reason, the Astros and Dodgers have consistently managed to acquire pitchers that I would consider significant (Rich Hill, Darvish, Verlander, Cole) without giving up their best prospects. On the other hand, the Cubs and Red Sox have traded away ELITE prospects for their pitchers.

 

I think there are a lot of guys that could slide into the #2 spot behind Berrios and not cost one of the Twins top prospects:

Zack Wheeler

Zack Greinke

Marcus Stroman

Mike Minor

Robbie Ray

Sonny Gray

All of those guys are currently pitching as well or better than Perez/Odorizzi and projected to pitch better than them going forward.

 

[ChrisKnutson]

Astros sent their number 3, 9, and 11 prospects for Verlander.......

Baddoo and Celestino are the equivalent to what Daz Cameron was for the Astros, same goes for Franklin Perez who’s comparable to Enlow and Duran, and Rortvedt is pretty much Jake Rogers without the power (yet), but since Jeffers would be available too, teams got 2 quality options to choose from.

 

So yeah, maybe you got me on Duran, but other than that, there’s no reason to give up any of our other elite prospects just yet.

Edited May 24, 2019 by ChrisKnutson

[Dman]

 

Baddoo and Celestino are the equivalent to what Daz Cameron was for the Astros, same goes for Franklin Perez who’s comparable to Enlow and Duran, and Rortvedt is pretty much Jake Rogers without the power (yet), but since Jeffers would be available too, teams got 2 quality options to choose from.

So yeah, maybe you got me on Duran, but other than that, there’s no reason to give up any of our other elite prospects just yet.

I agree it depends on how motivated the seller is and what the market is for the player.  Other than Sale it seems the going rate is a top 3 or 4 player and then a couple more around the top 10.  Sherzer is a top of the league pitcher so definitely could cost more than that who knows.  I think giving them our top three is a bit excessive though.

[segagenesisgenius]

 

Why wouldn't he cost a lot in terms of prospects? Unless he was owed like $50+ mil a year, I'm not sure the money really matters here. I get that theoretically, at $35 mil a year, he should cost less in terms of prospects than what Boston gave up for Sale a few years ago -- but Washington's not dealing him based on that. If the return is less than Sale's, they almost certainly just hang on to Scherzer.

 

Boston traded for Chris Sale when he was 27 with 3 more years of control with the understanding that it is much easier to extend players when you have them before they ever reach free agency. With that ability, they then extended him through 2024.  On top of all of that was the depressed salary that Sale was earning at the time

 

Conversely, Max Sherzer, as great as he is, is currently 34 years old with control through his age 36 season, and he is literally the highest paid pitcher in MLB.

 

If you don't understand why that means that Sherzer will return less of a package than Sale, well, I'll order whatever you're drinking. 

[segagenesisgenius]

 

If he hit 60s, I stand corrected.......also, sort of proves the point that some guys should be traded for actual MLB players, and not counted on.

 

Of course, he can still be a legit MLB player, but his stuff isn't GREAT, and he was hurt for some time....

 

Ah, I was gonna comment on how he to got to 64, but I see someone else beat me to it.  Nevermind!  Gotta finish reading these comments before I add in

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ah, I was gonna comment on how he to got to 64, but I see someone else beat me to it.  Nevermind!  Gotta finish reading these comments before I add in

 

He was not far from top 100 in 2018 on Fangraphs, IIRC.....but not sure before that (and not this year).

[jorgenswest]

The market will set the return for an ace. It is going to matter more how many teams are in play rather than how much another team was able to get for Sale or Verlander.

 

The Twins can play in this market. Everyone has prospects like their number 4 or greater prospects but having top end prospects in Kirilloff or Lewis can set them apart if the market is competitive.

[SomeGuy]

 

Maybe? For some reason, the Astros and Dodgers have consistently managed to acquire pitchers that I would consider significant (Rich Hill, Darvish, Verlander, Cole) without giving up their best prospects. On the other hand, the Cubs and Red Sox have traded away ELITE prospects for their pitchers.

 

I think there are a lot of guys that could slide into the #2 spot behind Berrios and not cost one of the Twins top prospects:

Zack Wheeler

Zack Greinke

Marcus Stroman

Mike Minor

Robbie Ray

Sonny Gray

All of those guys are currently pitching as well or better than Perez/Odorizzi and projected to pitch better than them going forward.

Wheeler, Grienke, Ray, Gray and amazingly Minor are all on competing teams.  Stroman is the lone player from a team in a selling position at this point.

 

I would also argue they have been as good or worse than Perez/Odorizzi so far since Odorizzi has the best ERA of the bunch, Perez is 4th (Wheeler's ERA is almost 5).  But they do project to be better going forward and probably will be.

 

And I doubt Sonny Gray is available even if Cincy does sell. They didn't sign him to an additional 3 years to trade him. Alex Wood, Tanner Roark and Jose Iglesias might be available.

 

I believe we are on Grienke's no-trade clause as well. Not sure if he has the kind where he picks the teams every year but we were on it at one point.  He would have to want to come here which might not be an issue. He has previously said he wants to be in the National League so he can bat.

Edited May 24, 2019 by SomeGuy