Article: MIN 8, LAA 3: Bats Break Loose Late

[rdehring]

 

Hate to slow the roll as they say but all the things that are being posted about Arraez were being posted two months ago about the Turtle.   Not that they aren't both good hitters or that we shouldn't ride the hot streak as much as possible but that is all this is,   a hot streak.  He is 7-12.   Now take away any three of those hits and pretend he goes 0-2 today and that is the kind of production you can probably expect from extended play.  Now maybe that expectation is enough to replace Adrianza now and give him a spot for next year but a 4 game hot streak should not drive mid or long term decision making.

There is no reason to believe he is going to hit in the low 200's.  This kid has hit for an average no lower than .310 (2018 at Hi-A and AA) and closer to .350 every year since signing back when he was 16.  There is no reason to expect he is going to hit for an average less than .300 in the big leagues.  But you are right, he isn't likely to keep hitting at a +.600 clip.

[Brock Beauchamp]

There is no reason to believe he is going to hit in the low 200's. This kid has hit for an average no lower than .310 (2018 at Hi-A and AA) and closer to .350 every year since signing back when he was 16. There is no reason to expect he is going to hit for an average less than .300 in the big leagues. But you are right, he isn't likely to keep hitting at a +.600 clip.

There is ABSOLUTELY reason to believe a 22 year old with little upper minors experience will hit poorly in the Majors once pitchers get a look at him.

 

This isn’t beer league baseball. The skill level Arraez is facing is miles better than anything he’s seen in his life.

 

Justin-freakin’-Morneau had a .660 OPS his rookie year.

[prouster]

There is no good reason whatsoever to trade anyone who has contributed to the big league club this year. Just a couple weeks ago, people wanted Castro to be DFA’d. Then Austudillo and Garver both went down with injuries.

 

Depth is a good thing, and it’s certainly different from having a surplus. Trading Schoop or Adrianza or whoever else—and replacing them with rookies—is asking for trouble. Remember when there wasn’t a centerfielder on the roster for, like, two years?

 

Personally, I think both Lewis and Kirilloff should be on the table if it means a top line starter with multiple years of control. Sell from the minors and try to win the dang World Series.

[stringer bell]

I think Lewis and Kirilloff are untouchable, along with Graterol and probably Thorpe. Anyone else should be on the table.

[Dantes929]

 

There is no reason to believe he is going to hit in the low 200's.  This kid has hit for an average no lower than .310 (2018 at Hi-A and AA) and closer to .350 every year since signing back when he was 16.  There is no reason to expect he is going to hit for an average less than .300 in the big leagues.  But you are right, he isn't likely to keep hitting at a +.600 clip.

Dozier was a .300 hitter in the minors.  Turtle was a .320 hitter.    Arraez was a .331 hitter.   I generally don't think a .330 minor league hitter becomes a major league .220 hitter but .300 seems really optimistic until he gets a thousand at bats against major league pitchers.      My post said subtract 3 hits and add two outs which would make him 4-14 or a .286 batter.    If he can walk twice among those at bats that would make him extremely valuable.  Minor leagues isn't tee ball or high school ball.   You have to be really good to bat .331 but I am guessing nearly every guy in the minor leagues is capable of a good 4 games Major League stint.   Only 1 in 50, I am guessing, are capable of sustaining success.

[lukeduke1980]

 

I think Lewis and Kirilloff are untouchable, along with Graterol and probably Thorpe. Anyone else should be on the table.

I usually agree.  Maybe this year, if stars continue to align, no one is untouchable.  Obviously return would have to be elite for those guys, but go for it.

[yarnivek1972]

There is no good reason whatsoever to trade anyone who has contributed to the big league club this year. Just a couple weeks ago, people wanted Castro to be DFA’d. Then Austudillo and Garver both went down with injuries.

 

Depth is a good thing, and it’s certainly different from having a surplus. Trading Schoop or Adrianza or whoever else—and replacing them with rookies—is asking for trouble. Remember when there wasn’t a centerfielder on the roster for, like, two years?

 

Personally, I think both Lewis and Kirilloff should be on the table if it means a top line starter with multiple years of control. Sell from the minors and try to win the dang World Series.

Why would ANY team be trying to trade a top line starter with “multiple” years of control? If you have that guy, you should be building around him.

[prouster]

Why would ANY team be trying to trade a top line starter with “multiple” years of control? If you have that guy, you should be building around him.

Basically I’m describing Thor. The Mets are bad. It’s also not unthinkable that the Nationals would unload Scherzer and/or Strasburg if things don’t turn around.

Edited May 22, 2019 by prouster

[TFRazor]

 

Why would ANY team be trying to trade a top line starter with “multiple” years of control? If you have that guy, you should be building around him.

I'd bet on the Marlins. They'd trade anybody. Not that they have anybody really good it's just you did say "ANY team"

Edited May 22, 2019 by TFRazor

[prouster]

I think Lewis and Kirilloff are untouchable, along with Graterol and probably Thorpe. Anyone else should be on the table.

I hope they don’t consider Thorpe untouchable.

[TFRazor]

 

I usually agree.  Maybe this year, if stars continue to align, no one is untouchable.  Obviously return would have to be elite for those guys, but go for it.

Every team should always have two or three guys who are untouchable. If you're in the habit of trading your best prospects it had better be for more than just an ace on an expiring contract for the stretch run. I don't care how good the "ace" is. If you're packaging Royce Lewis in a deal, you'd better be getting a guy like Scherzer or prime Clayton Kershaw with several years left on their deal. Otherwise you end up where the tigers are right now. I don't want to be where the tigers are right now.

Edited May 22, 2019 by TFRazor

[bighat]

 

I think Lewis and Kirilloff are untouchable, along with Graterol and probably Thorpe. Anyone else should be on the table.

 

In a perfect world, you get to keep the good players you like and trade the bad players you don't like for All-Stars. Alas, it doesn't work like that.

 

Teams routinely give up prospects 1-5 in their systems for big names. If the Twins acquire a big name, expect to see someone you like going the other direction.

[MNT1996]

Arraez should not be in the trade discussion. This dude is a utility player that could be priceless for the Twins in the future years if he hits well and defends well. I'd say every prospect except Graterol (potential Ace), Kirilloff (potential future 1st baseman), and Arraez (potential future super utility) should be on the trade block.

[TNTwinsFan]

I think Lewis and Kirilloff are untouchable, along with Graterol and probably Thorpe. Anyone else should be on the table.

Maybe Balazovic?

[MNT1996]

I think people are sleeping on the trade value of Cave, Raley, and Rooker. Those guys should be some of the first names the Twins throws on the block.

[prouster]

Why would ANY team be trying to trade a top line starter with “multiple” years of control? If you have that guy, you should be building around him.

Sorry for the barrage of replies. I meant to edit my other post responding to yours, but looks like it’s too late.

 

I want to mention that there’s recent precedent for this exact sort of trade happening. Chris Sale comes to mind. Verlander. Gerrit Cole. Heck, Frank Viola if you go back further. These are off the top of my head. I’m sure there are plenty of others.

Edited May 22, 2019 by prouster

[drivlikejehu]

 

I think people are sleeping on the trade value of Cave, Raley, and Rooker. Those guys should be some of the first names the Twins throws on the block.

 

None of the listed names have any significant amount of trade value. 

[Darius]

If you’re not a believer after last night, you probably never will be.

 

I thought they were dead in the water. Pineda struggling. Anemic offense. Angels were projected at over 90% to win the game, I believe. But, to my surprise, they clawed back.

 

Honestly, I don’t know how you can send Arraez down. Gonzalez covers all positions Adrianza can.

[h2oface]

 

All this talk about Arraez in the comments and not a single mention of the pure comedy of Polanco and his 89 foot lead off third base last night.

This team is delightfully annoying.

 

The Polonco episode was so much fun at the stadium. There were probably more Twins' fans in the stadium by then, as a lot of the Angel fans were leaving. For the last 3 innings, I ended up on the rail above the camera booth just to the outfield side of the visitors dugout, which is the first base side there. (I had tickets in the same section just about 15 rows up - $21/ticket, $84 for the whole family, day of purchase on stubhub). There were a ton of noisy Twins fans for both games, regardless. But this was something I had never seen. TAKE IT! TAKE IT! I screamed. The whole section was screaming to GO GO GO....... didn't stop for the whole at bat there. The boys in the dugout were looking back at us all and laughing. I mean...... I don't know how, once Luke Bard was set, that he could not score and steal home easily. Palanco was just so close, and he is very quick. I and we all really wanted to see a steal of home. It was LOUD and HIGH-larious. I wish Polanco would have tried and scored. Such fun.

[h2oface]

 

Just dreaming here:

MadBum & Will Smith (+Salary) for:

Rooker (Sad to see him go)
Gonsalves
Adrianza
Gordon
Littel

Thoughts?

 

I don't think any of the above will be coveted MLB regulars. It would be great if they would take this deal. Gordon, maybe, but I doubt it. Bumgarner has a post season pedigree that is really second to none. Smith would be a great piece for the pen. It is fun thinking about. Who knows what they want at this point. 

Edited May 22, 2019 by h2oface

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Forget about Adrianza, it's Gordon who has become expendable.

Gordon is still young with value to boot! Imagine if he can get his bat figured out in AAA. No such thing as too many short stops/middle infielders Edited May 22, 2019 by Sconnie

[Brock Beauchamp]

Arraez should not be in the trade discussion. This dude is a utility player that could be priceless for the Twins in the future years if he hits well and defends well. I'd say every prospect except Graterol (potential Ace), Kirilloff (potential future 1st baseman), and Arraez (potential future super utility) should be on the trade block.

The thing about “super” utility guys is that they need to be able to play short. I’m not sure Arraez can do that, as scouting reports are pretty iffy on the guy.

[jorgenswest]

I think it is defense at shortstop that keeps Adrianza on the roster.

 

Correa was out twice last year. The second time they played Bregman at SS and a guy who could have played LF at 3B while Gonzalez played LF. They had games in the second half with both Altuve and Correa out an still played Marwin in LF. I wonder if Marwin had the defense to play regularly at SS he finds a contract in free agency sooner.

 

Arraez if sent down should be given considerable time at SS as well as some time at 3B and LF.

[yarnivek1972]

I think it is defense at shortstop that keeps Adrianza on the roster.

 

Correa was out twice last year. The second time they played Bregman at SS and a guy who could have played LF at 3B while Gonzalez played LF. They had games in the second half with both Altuve and Correa out an still played Marwin in LF. I wonder if Marwin had the defense to play regularly at SS he finds a contract in free agency sooner.

 

Arraez if sent down should be given considerable time at SS as well as some time at 3B and LF.

Time spent at SS by Arraez is time not spent there by Gordon. Decision time.

[Trov]

Too early for magic number count down?  Think it is 108 going into todays game.  Correct me if I am wrong. 

[jorgenswest]

Time spent at SS by Arraez is time not spent there by Gordon. Decision time.

Neither needs everyday play at SS and both benefit the club with versatility. The decision should be to develop versatile players.

[yarnivek1972]

Neither needs everyday play at SS and both benefit the club with versatility. The decision should be to develop versatile players.

That is certainly a valid decision. However, the current regime has played Arraez at shortstop sparingly. Clearly, they don’t think he’s even a part time shortstop.