Article: MIN 8, LAA 3: Bats Break Loose Late

[lukeduke1980]

 

Hate to slow the roll as they say but all the things that are being posted about Arraez were being posted two months ago about the Turtle.   Not that they aren't both good hitters or that we shouldn't ride the hot streak as much as possible but that is all this is,   a hot streak.  He is 7-12.   Now take away any three of those hits and pretend he goes 0-2 today and that is the kind of production you can probably expect from extended play.  Now maybe that expectation is enough to replace Adrianza now and give him a spot for next year but a 4 game hot streak should not drive mid or long term decision making.

I agree with slowing the roll on Arraez, if he goes back down he'll be back soon enough as the injured list will unfortunately but inevitably be used again

 

[TNTwinsFan]

While Arraez has stepped up, one of the few problems I see for the Twins is their lack of capable replacements in the minors. Cave is a big-league player, but besides him there isn't a player in Rochester capable and deserving of promotion to the majors IMO. Injuries are going to happen and I don't anticipate the lineup suffering much because of the current bench--Gonzalez, Astudillo, Arraez and Adrianza--they are big league players (we'll need a little bigger sample size with Arraez) and they are versatile. 

 

On the pitching side, other than hoping for lefty to emerge from Meíja, Vasquez or Moya, no one has jumped out at Rochester. Meíja hasn't started a rehab yet and the other two have not been effective. Maybe one of the AA arms can help, but in a pennant race, I wouldn't want to rely on rookies.

 

The top prospects have not fared well on the whole, with a large number of them being injured (both pitching and position). Package some of them for pitching help? I guess I'd say go for it. There will be a lot of potential free agents after this season, including three members of the rotation. To me, this looks like a time to go for it.

 

Luke Raley???

[stringer bell]

Raley's numbers are pretty good and he's played some center field, indicating he's ok in the outfield, but is he better than Cave? Is he going to displace Kepler or Rosario? I understand he's currently on the Injured List, as well. 

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

a 4 game hot streak should not drive mid or long term decision making.

Yes, I agree.

 

Arreaz's hot streak, given Schoop's 1 year rental, and Pineda's expiring contract, given his production as a 5th starter, are developing stories.

 

A guy can wistfully remember a certain 21 yr old 2nd baseman called up by the Twins in April of 1967 who went 2 for 4 in his first game, and went on to hit .292 in 137 games. He had less minor league experience than Arraez.

 

Could Arraez be our next Carew? How about Polanco? Or Lewis, or maybe even Gordon?

 

Four days of promise won't drive these decisions, but it's fun to stand in the middle of this streaky stream and wonder where the current will flow in July, October, and beyond.

[the_brute_squad]

With Cruz expected back soon and Garver not long after the FO is going to have some decisions to make. Every move could be justified or vilified depending on who you prefer to see. Based on what we're seeing, the decision won't be like the Terry Ryan days where time in the system was the determining factor.

[Jacks02]

 

Adrianza has been hitting and playing well too tho.

 

Yes, he's hit better the last two weeks, but do two weeks of good play trump his career data?

 

Even with the recent hot streak, Adrianza is hitting .205 with a .652 OPS this season. He hit .251 with a .680 OPS last year and .265 with a .707 OPS in 2017.

 

He's nearly 30 years old with a .303 OBP and .658 OPS over 7 seasons.

 

He's gotten plenty of opportunity.

[TNTwinsFan]

 

Raley's numbers are pretty good and he's played some center field, indicating he's ok in the outfield, but is he better than Cave? Is he going to displace Kepler or Rosario? I understand he's currently on the Injured List, as well. 

 

I can't say for certain if Raley and Cave are comparable on defense. But it looks like Raley may have an edge offensively; although he does bat left handed...but hey! He THROWS Right Handed! So there's something interesting. Maybe he is a better 4th OF than Cave. I don't know.

[mikelink45]

Among the items that really stood out for me - Mike Morin was not a relief pitcher last night, he was throwing fielding practice and luckily the fielders took the challenge.  How do stats cover this inning with no runs allowed?  I certainly would not want him out there with less than a five run lead.

 

Pineda has to really improve of we have to move on.  Yes he fills in as a number five, but his rate of runs allowed in the early innings has me puzzled and is not what you want in crunch time.

 

Arraez is terrific and in answer to an early question - yes we can use a Tony Gwynn in our lineup.  Some wonderful lineup challenges ahead.

Finally if we package Gordon, Adrianza, Kohl Stewart and Jake Cave can we get a couple decent RP?  We do need them.  As the season changes and the heat rises we have to be prepared for different scenarios and the BP still does not look like it needs to be in Sep/Oct.

[Shaitan]

Depth is good. Competition makes good players better. Options are there for a reason.

[segagenesisgenius]

 

In order to keep Arraez up here, he has to be an upgrade over someone else, right?

 

If Polanco goes down with an injury, which of the utility guys is an upgrade at SS over Adrianza among Gonzales, Astudillo, and Arraez? I don't know the answer to that myself.

 

I guess I'd maybe stash Turtle and Arraez in AAA and keep Ehire around for now, but maybe not. But if I decided he was expendable, I'd take my time and try to get a low A prospect for him rather than DFA him.

 

I mean, Marwin played shortstop for one of the best teams in the year last year for the Astros for 100 games when Correa went down.  Ehire's defensive metrics are frankly pretty below average. Marwin graded better than him last year.  I mean, heck, Marwin got MVP votes as a utility player that played 30 games at short stop for a team that won the world series.  I am relatively confident he will be okay at SS.

 

Ehire is a fine and eminently replaceable player.  There does not appear to be anything remarkable about his glove or his bat, and he has had plenty of opportunities to show otherwise.  That is not the case for other players such as Willians, Arraez, and even Nick Gordon who has shown signs of life this year, so I would rather they get the opportunity. 

 

[bighat]

 

Last year: you could make a case for DFAing our cleanup hitter

This year: jeebus our 12th man could start for half the teams in the league. Our 13th man (cave) too.

 

Our 14th man (Austin) and 15th man (Reed) are/were both starting for San Fran this year many times!

[DocBauer]

Remember when some thought adding Arraez to the 40 man was an OK idea but unnecessary? Wow, am I glad we didn't take the risk! But it's still only a handful of games. I have a lot of faith in the kid, and I think he's going to be a nice ballplayer, whether starter ornutility guy with a productive bat. But it's only been a few games.

 

You can call me old fashioned or limited in my scope of thinking, but Adrianza is a glove first utility guy. That's what he is. For that,his bat is actually pretty solid. I want to see more of Arraez as well. But unless the FO and coaching staff feel that he and Gonzalez would be OK at SS should anything happen to Polano, I'm thinking Arraez goes down and rides the shuttle from Rochester the rest of the season.

[scottz]

 

Depth is good. Competition makes good players better. Options are there for a reason.

Amen. Use the options on whoever has them when guys get healthy and the 25 man fills up with your ideal players. Use the entire 40 man roster. Injuries will occur, so cut no asset until they have proven they cannot compete (e.g., Reed). Having too many major league caliber players is not a problem.

[bighat]

Conspiracy theory alert: Arraez is being showcased as the key piece in a major deal for a pitcher in July. Twins package Raley and Arraez for a solid #3 or #4 veteran for the stretch run.

[JD Green]

IMHO,play Arraez every game until Cruz comes back to extend his look. We pretty much know what we have in the Turtle. Hate to say it but one if not both get sent down by the time Garver comes back barring other injuries. Play Adrianza as a second utility guy with the hope of boosting his trade value before the deadline. Because we have Gonzo, package Adrianza with possibly Schoop, Cave, or minor leaguers for pitching. Use any trade deadline moves to improve the team not just for this year, but also future years.

 

Isn't it fun to have these kind of problems?

[Monkeypaws]

Arreaz - not bad for a guy who was only an honorable mention on TD's top 20 prospects list for 2019.

 

That high floor....

[jmlease1]

 

In order to keep Arraez up here, he has to be an upgrade over someone else, right?

 

If Polanco goes down with an injury, which of the utility guys is an upgrade at SS over Adrianza among Gonzales, Astudillo, and Arraez? I don't know the answer to that myself.

 

I guess I'd maybe stash Turtle and Arraez in AAA and keep Ehire around for now, but maybe not. But if I decided he was expendable, I'd take my time and try to get a low A prospect for him rather than DFA him.

 

Astudillo is our only other catcher right now with Garver on the shelf. He's on the club until garver returns, no way we roll with 1 catcher active...if Castro got hurt mid-game CJ Cron would be catching!

 

Arraez likely moves back down when Cruz returns, because they want Arraez to play (he's got very little experience above A ball), not sit on the bench and with Cruz at DH & Sano back we really don't have room for an additional infielder. Marwin & Adrianza will sweep up those ABs.

 

Good win last night on a really successful road trip. It would be great to get the sweep, but winning two road series is always good regardless of what happens tonight. There's a good argument to be made that the West is the best division in the AL; Seattle's the worst team there, probably and even they aren't trash. Angels, Rangers, and A's could all compete for the Wild Card.

 

[Circus Boy]

 

Yes, he's hit better the last two weeks, but do two weeks of good play trump his career data?

 

Even with the recent hot streak, Adrianza is hitting .205 with a .652 OPS this season. He hit .251 with a .680 OPS last year and .265 with a .707 OPS in 2017.

 

He's nearly 30 years old with a .303 OBP and .658 OPS over 7 seasons.

 

He's gotten plenty of opportunity.

He's our Latin-style Nick Punto.

[MMMordabito]

 

Arreaz - not bad for a guy who was only an honorable mention on TD's top 20 prospects list for 2019.

 

That high floor....

 

No kidding ... He couldn't even beat out ".573 OPS in Single-A" Celestino 

[joefish]

Atta Twins.

Atta bats.

Fun times in Twinsland.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yes, he's hit better the last two weeks, but do two weeks of good play trump his career data?

 

Even with the recent hot streak, Adrianza is hitting .205 with a .652 OPS this season. He hit .251 with a .680 OPS last year and .265 with a .707 OPS in 2017.

 

He's nearly 30 years old with a .303 OBP and .658 OPS over 7 seasons.

 

He's gotten plenty of opportunity.

 

I tend to agree, but there's a bit of a catch there. You know what you're getting with Adrianza… not so much with Arraez. He could go into a funk and need to be sent back down, and if Adrianza has been DFAd, you may not have a replacement option....

 

For his role, I don't think that's the end of the world, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if the FO punted on that decision and optioned Arraez or Astrudillo instead.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Conspiracy theory alert: Arraez is being showcased as the key piece in a major deal for a pitcher in July. Twins package Raley and Arraez for a solid #3 or #4 veteran for the stretch run.

I wouldn't be surprised if Arraez is traded, but if there's a 3/4 return, the FO did it wrong. Right now, we have 2 SPs in the top 30 in MLB. Martin Perez has just missed it (1.2 WAR to date) and Gibson is at 51. We don't need a 3/4 type as we have 4 pitchers in the top 51 starting pitchers. RP is a different story. 

 

If the get a starter, I would go for an ace that slots ahead of Berrios in the playoffs. 

[TFRazor]

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Arraez is traded, but if there's a 3/4 return, the FO did it wrong. Right now, we have 2 SPs in the top 30 in MLB. Martin Perez has just missed it (1.2 WAR to date) and Gibson is at 51. We don't need a 3/4 type as we have 4 pitchers in the top 51 starting pitchers. RP is a different story. 

 

If the get a starter, I would go for an ace that slots ahead of Berrios in the playoffs. 

 

MadBum. And if you can get Will Smith tossed into the deal be willing to take on all the salary. I'm of course open to other SP suggestions

[Tom Froemming]

 

No kidding ... He couldn't even beat out ".573 OPS in Single-A" Celestino 

There are better days ahead for Gilberto Celestino. I'm not sure he's ever experienced weather like this before in his life. You'd hope that type of thing wouldn't impact a guy too much, it certainly didn't seem to bother Arraez back in '16, but it happens. Some guys also take some time to adjust to a new level. I bet he takes off in June.

 

It's been a rough 38 games for Gilberto, but Arraez himself only had a .564 OPS through his first 38 games last season. Different situations (Luis was at a higher level and knocking off some rust), as is always the case, but my point is you wouldn't want to rush to judgement. Just take a look at what Lewin Diaz is doing in his second trip around the FSL (.933 OPS vs. a .598 OPS last year). Everybody slid him down their lists a ton and it's looking like that was a mistake.

 

Prospect rankings are weird, difficult and this is a deep system. I personally didn't feel there was a huge gap between my personal No. 5 prospect and No. 15 prospect, or my No. 16 prospect and my No. 36 prospect. There are guys outside of my top 50 I could see carving out jobs as MLB role players if everything breaks right.

[TNTwinsFan]

MadBum. And if you can get Will Smith tossed into the deal be willing to take on all the salary. I'm of course open to other SP suggestions

Just dreaming here:

 

MadBum & Will Smith (+Salary) for:

 

Rooker (Sad to see him go)

Gonsalves

Adrianza

Gordon

Littel

 

Thoughts?

[TFRazor]

 

Just dreaming here:

MadBum & Will Smith (+Salary) for:

Rooker (Sad to see him go)
Gonsalves
Adrianza
Gordon
Littel

Thoughts?

Honestly it all depends on what the Giants are trying to do. Are they reloading or rebuilding? There are going to be two different types of players involved in those deals. Rebuild will probably have younger guys where a reload has guys closer to the bigs. The good news is there seems to be a pretty solid relationship between our FO and theirs following the Austin and Reed deals. What a MadBum/Smith trade to the Twins looks like I wouldn't really hazard a guess. Also I'm really not aware enough of what they giants organizational need is for players. Where is their depth thin and the like. I feel that would have a major impact on who we would be hypothetically sending back

Edited May 22, 2019 by TFRazor

[Brock Beauchamp]

All this talk about Arraez in the comments and not a single mention of the pure comedy of Polanco and his 89 foot lead off third base last night.

 

This team is delightfully annoying.

[bird]

 

These posts reflect something I've said before and I'll say again. The goal of the front office should be to field a major league team that can contend for the postseason and a world championship. Every year. As major league players move on, whether due to retirement, trade, or free agency, it's necessary to have major-league-ready replacements in the system. This requires system-wide success, especially in scouting and player development. This is not easy, especially for a mid-market team. Falvine are less than three years in, and it takes longer than that to truly establish this, but things appear to be trending this way.

 

 

Very much this. If I owned the team, one of the deliverables that would drive compensation in my baseball operations would be the team ranking in the top 10 in both the MLB Power Rankings and the prospect pipeline. I'd also measure the effectiveness of the sell discipline. Are they moving assets before they depreciate? Are they winning the player trades at an acceptable rate?

 

Gotta like what we see so far, although I'm hoping to reverse my distaste regarding the Pressly and Escobar trades as well as the zero-return "losses" of guys like Bard, Curtiss, Chargois, and Burdi.

[Halsey Hall]

I just don't get all the trade talk. Wake up folks, we're doing pretty good! I don't see where we need new blood at any position, and no matter who Baldelli puts out there we keep winning. Everyone has helped win games this year and they are having a blast. Don't upset the apple cart. I'm having a blast watching this team. I've been a fan since '61 and rarely seen anything like this.

[USAFChief]

Just dreaming here:

 

MadBum & Will Smith (+Salary) for:

 

Rooker (Sad to see him go)

Gonsalves

Adrianza

Gordon

Littel

 

Thoughts?

not nearly enough. What do the Giants want with Adrianza?

 

Gordon is the only one that has any value, and it's not much.