Article: How Will Sano’s Return Impact the Roster?

[Riverbrian]

 

i think they play the option game, the I.L. game and everything they can just to avoid D.F.A-ing Adrianza. I like him a lot and even though i concur with other posters about his weaknesses I just see some sort of his connection with the team that we must not see. Probably a clubhouse chemistry issue.

 

I think this is a great point that we all need to consider. 

 

Whatever, we (some) feel about Adrianza. He is the very definition of disposable but yet... the front office made a point to pick him up and give him a roster spot in 2018 and did so once again for 2019. They had similiar production options to choose from and chose Adrianza at more money then they could have paid. 

 

This tells me... that somebody in the front office likes him and believes in him. 

 

Although... I will always counter this thought with: You can tell how much a club likes a player based upon how often the club plays the player. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Adrianza has decent speed to pinch run. Nobody steals any more, certainly not a pinch runner unless it is Buxton.

Bringing up Gordon for less than full-time play would be a mistake, I think.

I would like to see a situation where 12 guys shared 9 positions, each guy getting >450 plate appearances. In my mind, it would be four guys sharing 3 positions in three groupings. #1–catcher first and DH. A guy like Garver could start 40 at each (especially the way he’s hitting). #2–second, short, and third with a Marwin-type starting 40 at each position and #3 the outfield with a “fourth regular” replacing each starter for 40 games. The 13th position player could be a pinch hitter/runner or third catcher who might spend half of his season in AAA if 13 pitchers are needed.

 

I only suggested Gordon as the option based upon criteria set by Jokin. 

 

Personally... I will never roster a guy with the intention of him not getting decent playing time. I'll never roster a guy for getaway day play only. So, If I'm calling up Gordon to be the 13th guy. He goes into the mix and he plays... if he can't produce with the bat, feet, glove and arm... Back down to AAA he goes.

 

So, I agree with you that calling Gordon up for less than full time play would be a mistake. I also 100% agree with you on 12 guys sharing 9 positions. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Why would you want your 12th best player playing as often as your best player?
The only way your plan maximizes assets is if all 12 players are hypothetically exactly as good as each other, which isn't realistic.

 

You should never be that systemic with anything and as long as you feel that Stringer meant "Absolutely Equal" playing time for all 12... you will prevent yourself from seeing the sensible reasoning behind what he is saying. 

 

Cruz, Garver, Castro, Astudillo, Cron, Sano, Schoop, Polanco, Marwin, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler. 

 

12 Players listed above... Who is our worst player and who is our best player? You may have an opinion and I may have an opinion... but If I open up that question to Twins Daily and do a little survey on the subject... I doubt the responses will be unanimous and I imagine the responses will be varied. 

 

This should show everyone that the differences between our worst player and our 8th best player is going to be pretty razor thin. Does it makes sense to play Kepler 162 games ranked 8th and Astudillo 0 games ranked 12th...  Because maybe Kepler is a hair better at the moment.

 

First off... Is Kepler a hair better?

2nd... You have just killed Astudillo for absolutely no reason at all. When you have a chance of him continuing to produce at a .300 mark and establishing Marwin Gonzalez type value... or a .300 hitter at the catcher position which is as rare as Mike Trout. 

 

If Astudillo establishes that type of value... He could be traded for something of value in return. If you don't play Astudillo, he doesn't establish value and you get nothing back when you eventually release him. 

 

All 12 of the above names don't deserve consistent bench time, they have value to the team currently regarding wins and losses and can increase in value for future acquisitions via trade. However... a player can only increase in value unless he gets playing time. 

 

Having a hard cap(this player is a smidge better than this player) just throws 3 potential (25%) future and current value slots into the garbage. 

 

This is why you need a roster of 25 players who the manager will play. Not playing someone on your roster is a waste. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

It was a hypothetical. Actually, in my mind and using the current Twins roster, maybe the most legitimate scenario would be the trio of first base, catcher and DH. With both Castro and Garver raking, it kind of makes sense to get more in the lineup and if Garver is good enough at first base, perhaps they could get both of their (at least temporarily) hot bats in the lineup at once. Cruz is hitting too well to bench every fourth day, but having some sort of a platoon where a switch hitter covers more than one position could work for some team.

 

It's like I've been saying over and over again. Flexibility is a natural by-product of having depth and is something that a team should strive for. Once you got 12 guys who can all produce... that's awesome.

 

But, Manager will have to start getting creative or absolutely burn talent and value by not playing the extra players. 

 

And they should never say... well we got 12 guys... I can now trade three of them to get back down to a manageable 9. 

 

If the manager can't be creative to get every one decent playing time.... they shouldn't be managing. 

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I think Cave goes down and stays there until one of the starting three outfielders go down with an injury.  I think Adrianza stays because of his glove as a late inning replacement for Sano at 3B and spot duty in the infield.  

 

If the starting rotation continues on this pace - I think they can survive with 12 pitchers.   I think adding quality arms to the bullpen and another starter will be the priority.  I believe Keuchel and Kimbrel are both real possibilities if the team has a healthy lead when the compensation picks drop off of the two of them in June.  Falvine would much rather add payroll than trade prospects.     

Edited May 8, 2019 by MileHighTwinsFan

[Jham]

Adrianza almost certainly has some trade value. Unless he's traded, I doubt he's moved off the roster. Cave has options. Easy call. Austudillo has options. Not so easy call. We have relief options that have options. Low leverage relievers with no options clog the wheel. Find a reliever with no options who's last name starts with "M" and cut.

[Vanimal46]

Adrianza almost certainly has some trade value.

Not sure about this. I guess the Twins could get international bonus money (the new PTBNL) or another flawed player without options like Tyler Austin.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Not sure about this. I guess the Twins could get international bonus money (the new PTBNL) or another flawed player without options like Tyler Austin.

 

Some perspective:  Adrianza was 28th among shortstops last year with an 82 wRC+.  He was 27th by OPS.  31st in WAR.

 

People talk about him like he's a trash heap player.  He's not.  It's the nature of the depth of middle infielders in the bigs, but people lose sight of that methinks.

[Jham]

Some perspective: Adrianza was 28th among shortstops last year with an 82 wRC+. He was 27th by OPS. 31st in WAR.

 

People talk about him like he's a trash heap player. He's not. It's the nature of the depth of middle infielders in the bigs, but people lose sight of that methinks.

31st in WAR as a mostly backup is pretty good. Like basically lower-tier starter. Luxury as a back up. I know Rowson was working with him on swinging out and hitting for more power which would raise his value and ceiling significantly. Early returns were somewhat positive. This year's been a struggle after a fantastic spring. But he's a veteran presence by now. He's a proven, if unspectacular fielder. He'd be a perfect stop gap for a rebuilding team or a nice backup for a contender. He's better than DSan, Florimon, or Juan Castro anyhow... put another way, if we didn't have him, and Gonzo or Polanco got hurt, I'd be very willing to offer something for a him.

[Thrylos]

I just don't see Adrianza going anywhere.   Last night with Castro out, Garver getting a bat on the neck, and Cron being the emergency catcher convinced me.  I don't want to see Schoop or esp. Gonzalez at SS even for a game.   Cave will be optioned when Sano/Astudillo is up with Gonzalez playing some OF LF if needed.  When the second of the Astudillo/Sano duo is up a pitcher (the worst performing reliever) will go.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Some perspective:  Adrianza was 28th among shortstops last year with an 82 wRC+.  He was 27th by OPS.  31st in WAR.

 

People talk about him like he's a trash heap player.  He's not.  It's the nature of the depth of middle infielders in the bigs, but people lose sight of that methinks.

I wouldn't say trash heap, but who's going to give up anything of value for him? Iglesias was 22nd in wRC+, and 15th in WAR, and he had to take a late minor league deal with the Reds.

 

There are a few teams with poor shortstop production, but they generally have another player they'd rather invest at-bats in, than an almost 30 year old utility guy with a peak 84 wRC+, 70 ZiPS projection, and a guaranteed $1.3 mil salary. Shortstops as a whole had a 97 wRC+ last year, so while some guys wind up around 80, teams generally want to aim higher (or at least younger, or cheaper) than that.

 

Just eyeballing the teams with below-average SS production so far in 2019 at B-Ref, I only see one where I might prefer Adrianza to their current starting personnel: Pittsburgh. But then again, Pittsburgh is also frugal, so the $1.3 mil salary might come into play, and if they know the Twins are looking to unload Adrianza, they'll probably just wait to grab him on waivers or only offer a token PTBNL.

 

Someone else might take him off our hands as a utility player, but again they probably aren't interested in paying much for the privilege.

[Otto von Ballpark]

For the record, I'm not necessarily advocating or predicting Adrianza getting cut either. I expect Cave will go first, and then perhaps a reliever, and that's okay.

[USAFChief]

Ehire Adrianza has no trade value.

 

Every team has an almost exact copy or two of Adrianza in AAA. If not, they can get one cheap if needed for nothing of any real value.

[jkcarew]

Lot’s here think the pitching staff will go to 12 when the second of Sano/Astudillo become available? Why? Seems counter to recent history and trends especially as we get out of the cancellations season and into the makeup season. I’m sceptical that the staff will be 12 for anything other than brief periods going forward. I mean, they want 13 in early May, but will want 12 in June because...it’s become too hard to chose which hitters remain?

[TheLeviathan]

 

I wouldn't say trash heap, but who's going to give up anything of value for him? Iglesias was 22nd in wRC+, and 15th in WAR, and he had to take a late minor league deal with the Reds.

 

There are a few teams with poor shortstop production, but they generally have another player they'd rather invest at-bats in, than an almost 30 year old utility guy with a peak 84 wRC+, 70 ZiPS projection, and a guaranteed $1.3 mil salary. Shortstops as a whole had a 97 wRC+ last year, so while some guys wind up around 80, teams generally want to aim higher (or at least younger, or cheaper) than that.

 

Just eyeballing the teams with below-average SS production so far in 2019 at B-Ref, I only see one where I might prefer Adrianza to their current starting personnel: Pittsburgh. But then again, Pittsburgh is also frugal, so the $1.3 mil salary might come into play, and if they know the Twins are looking to unload Adrianza, they'll probably just wait to grab him on waivers or only offer a token PTBNL.

 

Someone else might take him off our hands as a utility player, but again they probably aren't interested in paying much for the privilege.

 

A player's value is not the same as their trade value.  I wasn't arguing he would reap some kind of huge trade reward, merely that people keep throwing out the idea that he's an easily replaced player.

 

He's not.  He's not great, but he has value.  Players of value, especially those that can play a decent to good shortstop, are not easily obtained.

[Jham]

Ehire Adrianza has no trade value.

 

Every team has an almost exact copy or two of Adrianza in AAA. If not, they can get one cheap if needed for nothing of any real value.

These types of players are traded all the time. Usually for cash or ptbnl. No one notices because no one cares. There's no reason to cut him if we don't have to imo.

[beckmt]

My guess is that Cave is optioned first.  Then if the Twins staff is OK, Romero goes back to Rochester until a 13th pitcher is needed again.  

One other point, I thought from somewhere that position players had a 30 day rehab, so Sano would only have to be here at the end of the month.  That gives more time to sort things out.

[yarnivek1972]

Lot’s here think the pitching staff will go to 12 when the second of Sano/Astudillo become available? Why? Seems counter to recent history and trends especially as we get out of the cancellations season and into the makeup season. I’m sceptical that the staff will be 12 for anything other than brief periods going forward. I mean, they want 13 in early May, but will want 12 in June because...it’s become too hard to chose which hitters remain?

Because the starters have been doing a better job getting deeper into games. There is simply no need for 8 relievers. Sure that could change, but right now relievers are being underutilized. The Twins are essentially carrying four relievers for use almost exclusively in extremely low leverage situations: Magill, Harper, Morin and Romero. No decent team needs 4 mop up relievers. True enough that they could use one more high leverage reliever. But they could easily drop 2 of the 4 I mentioned and replace them with one good one (in a perfect world, an effective Addison Reed).

[Mr. Brooks]

My guess is that Cave is optioned first. Then if the Twins staff is OK, Romero goes back to Rochester until a 13th pitcher is needed again.

One other point, I thought from somewhere that position players had a 30 day rehab, so Sano would only have to be here at the end of the month. That gives more time to sort things out.

20 days for position players. 30 days for pitchers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

A player's value is not the same as their trade value. I wasn't arguing he would reap some kind of huge trade reward, merely that people keep throwing out the idea that he's an easily replaced player.

 

He's not. He's not great, but he has value. Players of value, especially those that can play a decent to good shortstop, are not easily obtained.

Okay. The post you responded to said "I guess the Twins could get international bonus money (the new PTBNL) or another flawed player without options like Tyler Austin" so I guess I assumed you were disagreeing with that take? It seemed accurate to me.

[jkcarew]

 

Because the starters have been doing a better job getting deeper into games. There is simply no need for 8 relievers. Sure that could change, but right now relievers are being underutilized. The Twins are essentially carrying four relievers for use almost exclusively in extremely low leverage situations: Magill, Harper, Morin and Romero. No decent team needs 4 mop up relievers. True enough that they could use one more high leverage reliever. But they could easily drop 2 of the 4 I mentioned and replace them with one good one (in a perfect world, an effective Addison Reed).

I agree that there are reasonable arguments/reasons/scenarios for a 12-man staff. And hope that that is what happens. But I don't think that will be the decision/outcome...at least not for the majority of the season. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[John Kelsey]

Sano moving up to AAA today. 

[Doomtints]

What will keep Adrianza around is his 1.3M salary, but players who play at his level either get cut or end up in the minors. If he plays out the year like this it will be his last year in the majors.

 

Adrianza is a huge success story right now. If this is it for him, he has nothing to be ashamed of. He is clearly very easy to work with because he is still around in spite of never putting up good numbers at any level. Ball clubs like him and he did a serviceable job with the Twins.

 

As for Sano, though he is hitting well in the minors ... wow, he does not look like he is in shape. We'll see what happens. His value is in his bat and hopefully the Twins will realize that.

Edited May 10, 2019 by Doomtints

[Channing1964]

Gordon is 3 for 3 in SBs since he's been activated, including 2 last night, including a steal of third base. 80% steal rate in 2018.

 

If Ben Revere is not available, I wonder if Herb Washington is doing anything?

LMMFAO I bet Herb can still run a 4.2 40 and then get picked off second.

[Channing1964]

You should never be that systemic with anything and as long as you feel that Stringer meant "Absolutely Equal" playing time for all 12... you will prevent yourself from seeing the sensible reasoning behind what he is saying.

 

Cruz, Garver, Castro, Astudillo, Cron, Sano, Schoop, Polanco, Marwin, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler.

 

12 Players listed above... Who is our worst player and who is our best player? You may have an opinion and I may have an opinion... but If I open up that question to Twins Daily and do a little survey on the subject... I doubt the responses will be unanimous and I imagine the responses will be varied.

 

This should show everyone that the differences between our worst player and our 8th best player is going to be pretty razor thin. Does it makes sense to play Kepler 162 games ranked 8th and Astudillo 0 games ranked 12th... Because maybe Kepler is a hair better at the moment.

 

First off... Is Kepler a hair better?

2nd... You have just killed Astudillo for absolutely no reason at all. When you have a chance of him continuing to produce at a .300 mark and establishing Marwin Gonzalez type value... or a .300 hitter at the catcher position which is as rare as Mike Trout.

 

If Astudillo establishes that type of value... He could be traded for something of value in return. If you don't play Astudillo, he doesn't establish value and you get nothing back when you eventually release him.

 

All 12 of the above names don't deserve consistent bench time, they have value to the team currently regarding wins and losses and can increase in value for future acquisitions via trade. However... a player can only increase in value unless he gets playing time.

 

Having a hard cap(this player is a smidge better than this player) just throws 3 potential (25%) future and current value slots into the garbage.

 

This is why you need a roster of 25 players who the manager will play. Not playing someone on your roster is a waste.

true all of that and you are sooo Right R.B. the best deepest championship caliber teams all go at least 12 deep. (position player wise) The fact that we are even discussing this means we are on the right track.

[Channing1964]

The whole fact that we are talking about our depth makes me smile. One point I would like to make about Adrianza is this. Some players would never be the same for any other team. Case in point Brian Dozier. On the other side of the spectrum, David Ortiz. Adrianza is who he is, a smart team player that is happy to do anything asked to help his team win. We could do worse. If he had any options he would prolly already be gone. But he doesnt. Until Gordon or anybody else can take Polanco or Schoop's job Ehire will be on our bench. Only Rocco and the FO knows why. but, #13 is okay with me

Edited May 14, 2019 by Channing1964

[Channing1964]

I think Cave goes down and stays there until one of the starting three outfielders go down with an injury. I think Adrianza stays because of his glove as a late inning replacement for Sano at 3B and spot duty in the infield.

 

If the starting rotation continues on this pace - I think they can survive with 12 pitchers. I think adding quality arms to the bullpen and another starter will be the priority. I believe Keuchel and Kimbrel are both real possibilities if the team has a healthy lead when the compensation picks drop off of the two of them in June. Falvine would much rather add payroll than trade prospects.

wow! Both of them would put us over the top! Just remember, neither if them will be super valuable until maybe after the All Star break.