Article: How Will Sano’s Return Impact the Roster?

[Vanimal46]

I don't think Reed suits up for the Twins again unless his return to health coincides with multiple injuries on the 25-man.

Concur. He's broken now, probably for good. The only way I'd want him back is if he gained the 2 MPH he lost last season.

[Number3]

Given that adjustments to rosters are made continuously by all teams during the course of a long season, the real question is how long of a leash will Sano have when he returns? It actually makes Baldelli's job easier that Gonzales hasn't been tearing the cover off the ball but the Twins are winning with the roster they have and his defense can't be questioned. I am still not sold on Sano as a long term every day solution and I hope his defense is solid enough to allow his offense to come around. I also hope that his return is not coincidental with a losing streak of any kind.

[stringer bell]

I think it is up to Sano how soon he is recalled. If he hits and fields his position, he will be up by 5/20. If the Ks keep coming and the hits stop, he'll be optioned. I don't think there are any guarantees.

 

I just checked BB Reference for something and each day they have assorted photos of player all the way from the 19th Century to today. Right next to each other were two guys who were going to be superstars, Gregg Jeffries and Grady Sizemore. Both had their moments, but weren't all-time greats. Sano was promoted that way as he came up. I just don't know if it will happen for him.

[twins1095]

 

Given that adjustments to rosters are made continuously by all teams during the course of a long season, the real question is how long of a leash will Sano have when he returns? It actually makes Baldelli's job easier that Gonzales hasn't been tearing the cover off the ball but the Twins are winning with the roster they have and his defense can't be questioned. I am still not sold on Sano as a long term every day solution and I hope his defense is solid enough to allow his offense to come around. I also hope that his return is not coincidental with a losing streak of any kind.

 

What does not sell you on Sano as a long-term everyday option in the event that he's healthy?  If you're worried about his ability to stay healthy on a consistent basis, that's fair.   However, that takes out the controversy.   

 

Miguel Sano's career OPS is .813.  His career averages per 162 games are 35 HRs - 100 RBIs - 30 2Bs - 90 runs - .336 OBP.  That includes his awful injury filled half season last year.  

 

Before that his numbers per 162 were ~ .350 obp - 40 HR - 35 2B - 110 RBIs - 100 runs.  

 

Nelson Cruz is the only active Twin who gets on base more in terms of career averages.  Cruz is also the only guy who rivals Sano in terms of power production or run producing potential.

 

Questioning Sano's ability to stay healthy is fair, suggesting that he falls short of the Miguel Cabrera type player some hoped him to be is also fair, not liking his style of play is fair too.

 

However, questioning his overall body of work in terms of production when on the field is disingenuous.  End of story.

 

For me, it's hard to put a ton of stock into Sano slumping and playing through injuries before shutting things down as the true value of his production over the previous sample of 1200 ABs.  We have seen already with Buxton how much stock should be put into injury-ridden small sample sizes.

 

Sano is held to a different standard by Twins fans because of what he can be and what he already is, is often forgotten.  

 

Even last season, Sano at his worst is essentially a slightly better of the current version of CJ Cron.  Again that is a slumping/injuried/not 100% Sano versus a 100% Cron.  Use that measure to put things into perspective.

 

The idea that adding Sano to the 4/5 spot in this lineup won't immediately and dramatically improve the teams offensive depth and ceiling is objectively absurd.

__________________________________________________________________

 

There are very real questions about Sano's long-term future due to his injury issues likely stemming in large part from weight issues stemming from lifestyle choices that lend to the idea that he's a player that lacks maturity, focus, and work-ethic.  However, despite those very real truths the production and body of work he's put up over a 1400 plate appearance sample (and especially over his first 1200 plate appearances) speaks for itself and should not be discounted or minimized.

 

 

Edited May 7, 2019 by twins1095

[h2oface]

 

This may be a little early since Sano is now 1-11 in AAA and Levine was quoted as saying the team has "no sense of urgency" to bring him back until he proves he can hit in AAA.

 

 

He'll get to AAA, but not yet. After the Monday, May 6th game, for his current rehab stint, he's 5/16 with 2 homers, 2 walks, 7 RBI, 6Ks, hitting .313/.400/.688 with an OPS of 1.088 after Monday's 0-fer 5. Two games with The Miracle, the second being a 4/4, and then promoted to Pensacola. So he is 1-11 in AA, not AAA. But for his 5 games...... not too bad of a line for "spring training". No matter what the totals end up, it will still be SSS and in the minors, regardless of level.

 

I think there is no hurry as well. Give him time. But I certainly am not discouraged after 5 games in rehab. And I think it is all one rehab.... regardless of his level, and it would be prudent to look at the whole SSS picture as it develops, instead of chopping it up to even smaller.

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=593934#/career/R/hitting/2019/ALL

Edited May 7, 2019 by h2oface

[h2oface]

 

Sano's 20 day rehab period expires May 20th. I seriously doubt he's optioned at that point. He'll be back with the Twins the 20th in Anaheim, is my guess.

 

Great time to see 3 games at Angel Stadium!

[Thrylos]

 

 

I don't think Reed suits up for the Twins again unless his return to health coincides with multiple injuries on the 25-man.

 

Started a rehab assignment today formally I think, so he has until about 6/6 to make it or be cut.

[h2oface]

 

It will be interesting to see if he's on the roster by 5/21. I wouldn't be surprised if they leave him in AA or AAA until he starts to dominate at the plate. We don't really NEED him right now, although having him when he's ready helps a lot. Wouldn't be surprised to see him still in the Minors for another month. 

 

Third base production is dismal! We need much better. Now whether it ends up coming from Sano, or others, it is certainly a need, especially from third base. Plus, he could have a week of crap, and then two days of it clicking in..... that is when someone is ready to go. Slumps in the show are always happening, even to the best. Rosario started the season 0-14 or something, and is in another slump now. Or, we could keep having to give Adrianza at bats, even though we would rather not, but we have to. A hot spring training didn't mean much to his MLB readiness it seems.

 

Player Batting Stats - As 3B
http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/_/name/min/season/2019/seasontype/2/split/81

Edited May 7, 2019 by h2oface

[yarnivek1972]

I would hope a pitcher is sent out to make room for Sano.

[Riverbrian]

 

RB, I'm in Stringer's camp on this one.*

 

I'm just not seeing any of the above arms being obviously reliable enough over any other arm once the playoff hunt and postseason are a reality- and no amount of continued "sorting out" is going to make a difference. And good call by Stringer on the "M&M boys." One of them is destined to take the long walk off the short plank within the next month or so. Morin has looked good, but too soon to tell if it's just a mirage. Maybe both gone?...  possibly, if the Fal/Vine duo do what they have to do and get another pen-bolstering upgrade arm.

 

It's almost hard to believe that at, at the least, there's a legit opportunity for a Series berth right in front of the Twins. Obviously, as in '87 and '91, home field advantage in the playoffs might make all the difference in getting there. Get her done, get her done NOW.

 

* (All of his campsites, actually) 

 

The Stringer/Jokin plan is fine with me. I just feel that the same argument for not needing 13 pitchers could also be made for not needing 13 position players. 

 

If I have a concern... a slight concern... it'll be the back end of the bullpen and I'd like to audtion some guys and see who can step up because it's a long season. I'm willing to grant the extra roster space to the bullpen in the name of discovery. 

[USAFChief]

Great time to see 3 games at Angel Stadium!

I'm considering it.

[jokin]

 

The Stringer/Jokin plan is fine with me. I just feel that the same argument for not needing 13 pitchers could also be made for not needing 13 position players. 

 

If I have a concern... a slight concern... it'll be the back end of the bullpen and I'd like to audtion some guys and see who can step up because it's a long season. I'm willing to grant the extra roster space to the bullpen in the name of discovery. 

 

Your concern is legitimate. I'd like to think of it as a separate issue.

 

I guess I'm just a little more old school. What i like about 13 position players is that it gives you multiple ways and opportunities to manufacture and/or secure close game victories via timely pinch hitting, in-game lineup shifts, late-inning substitutions and rest for veterans.

 

It's hard to get 8 RPs into a game to help win a close one without affecting next-game effectiveness, but relatively easy to have 4 bench players properly utilized in roles that lead to a win- without affecting their ability to play well in the succeeding games.

 

I prefer having my #13 (14, etc) pitcher on speed dial in Rochester.

Edited May 8, 2019 by jokin

[h2oface]

Update..........

 

Sano goes 3-4 with a couple doubles, a sac fly, and no strike outs on Tuesday. In AA still (what's the hold up?) His AA average now at .267 and OPS at.878. 

 

But, his rehab stint line is now 8/20 with 2 homers, 2 doubles, 2 walks, 8 RBI, 6Ks, hitting .400/.440/.800 with an OPS of 1.240! 

 

Good thing decisions aren't made after one game..... those pesky small samples.

[h2oface]

 

I'll be curious to see what the Twins consider 'ready' for Sano. If a few weeks from now he's hitting 10/50 with 5 homers, 5 walks, and 25 strikeouts...is that promotion-worthy? Do they option him and tell him to work on the plate control?

 

Cut with the negative waves, man! Sano's comin' and Buxton's just getting warmed up!

[Riverbrian]

 

Your concern is legitimate. I'd like to think of it as a separate issue.

 

I guess I'm just a little more old school. What i like about 13 position players is that it gives you multiple ways and opportunities to manufacture and/or secure close game victories via timely pinch hitting, in-game lineup shifts, late-inning substitutions and rest for veterans.

 

It's hard to get 8 RPs into a game to help win a close one without affecting next-game effectiveness, but relatively easy to have 4 bench players properly utilized in roles that lead to a win- without affecting their ability to play well in the succeeding games.

 

I prefer having my #13 (14, etc) pitcher on speed dial in Rochester.

 

In consideration of the potential 12 position players. Garver, Castro, Astudillo, Cron, Sano, Cruz, Schoop, Polanco, Marwin, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler.

 

From the 12 players above, I don't see anybody who will be pinch hit for... Castro maybe... but he's hitting well enough to hold his own and we will have 3 of the above 12 to pinch hit for anyone who needs to be pinch hit for.

 

The only player needing a late inning defensive replacement would be? Astudillo? I'm just throwing out a name because Astudillo doesn't appear to be a defensive issue and neither does anyone else. I include Garver because he looks like he has made tremendous defensive strides and I want to tip my cap to him. 

 

We got flexibility to cover in-game injuries wherever they may happen. So... The need for a 13th player for the late inning strategy would be... Speed.

 

A late inning pinch runner... when you need to make something happen. 

 

So from your original list... I assume Gordon is the speed guy because his brother is pretty fast. 

 

But... If Gordon is called up... I'm going to insist that he play and if he plays... he won't be available for that role. So, in that case... leave Gordon in Rochester and bring back Ben Revere and let him sit on the bench waiting for that moment. 

 

 As for the separate issue. 

 

As long as Baldelli protects the back end of his bullpen in low leverage 8-0 games. We got a potential problem. He needs to find other bullpen guys who he can trust. That means giving Morin and Magill more opportunity before you toss them off the roster and therefore exposing them to other clubs. If nobody cares about losing Morin and Magill... then get rid of them now and sign someone else or call up the next options for audition... Jake Reed or Tom Hackimer on anyone in-between. This is what I mean by getting bullpen serious. 

 

I don't want any roster space wasted. I don't want anyone on the roster that the manager needs to protect or avoid playing. They roster'd these guys... they need to trust the guys they put on the roster or get new guys to put on the roster that they trust.  This club should be thinking contender and World Series, not 1st pick overall in the draft. It isn't time to mess around. 

 

Baldelli seems to have faith in Rogers, Parker, Hildenberger and May.

 

Baldelli seems to be a little guarded in his usage of Harper, Romero, Magill and Morin. 

 

Reed and Moya will be back and decisions will have to be made... so I'm using the extra roster space in the bullpen to figure out who else can hang a zero when you need a zero hung.  

[Nine of twelve]

I haven't read the whole thread but I agree with a roster of the 12 position players listed in RivBri's post. If we can get by with a 12-man pitching staff then I'd actually lean toward Adrianza over Cave as the 13th player.

[Channing1964]

i think they play the option game, the I.L. game and everything they can just to avoid D.F.A-ing Adrianza. I like him a lot and even though i concur with other posters about his weaknesses I just see some sort of his connection with the team that we must not see. Probably a clubhouse chemistry issue.

[twins_89]

I think another factor that works against Adrianza is the return of Nick Gordon. I think that the Twins are going to be willing to DFA Adrianza and let Gonzalez be the emergency shortstop, with Gordon coming up to fill in if Polanco is going to be out for multiple games.

 

My guess is that within the next couple of weeks both Astudillo and Sano will be back, resulting in Cave being optioned and Adrianza DFAd.

[stringer bell]

Adrianza has decent speed to pinch run. Nobody steals any more, certainly not a pinch runner unless it is Buxton.

 

Bringing up Gordon for less than full-time play would be a mistake, I think.

 

I would like to see a situation where 12 guys shared 9 positions, each guy getting >450 plate appearances. In my mind, it would be four guys sharing 3 positions in three groupings. #1–catcher first and DH. A guy like Garver could start 40 at each (especially the way he’s hitting). #2–second, short, and third with a Marwin-type starting 40 at each position and #3 the outfield with a “fourth regular” replacing each starter for 40 games. The 13th position player could be a pinch hitter/runner or third catcher who might spend half of his season in AAA if 13 pitchers are needed.

[jokin]

 

 

We got flexibility to cover in-game injuries wherever they may happen. So... The need for a 13th player for the late inning strategy would be... Speed.

 

A late inning pinch runner... when you need to make something happen. 

 

So from your original list... I assume Gordon is the speed guy because his brother is pretty fast. 

 

But... If Gordon is called up... I'm going to insist that he play and if he plays... he won't be available for that role. So, in that case... leave Gordon in Rochester and bring back Ben Revere and let him sit on the bench waiting for that moment. 

 

 As for the separate issue. 

 

 

Gordon is 3 for 3 in SBs since he's been activated, including 2 last night, including a steal of third base. 80% steal rate in 2018.

 

If Ben Revere is not available, I wonder if Herb Washington is doing anything?

 

 

 

Edited May 8, 2019 by jokin

[Mr. Brooks]

Adrianza has decent speed to pinch run. Nobody steals any more, certainly not a pinch runner unless it is Buxton.

 

Bringing up Gordon for less than full-time play would be a mistake, I think.

 

I would like to see a situation where 12 guys shared 9 positions, each guy getting >450 plate appearances. In my mind, it would be four guys sharing 3 positions in three groupings. #1–catcher first and DH. A guy like Garver could start 40 at each (especially the way he’s hitting). #2–second, short, and third with a Marwin-type starting 40 at each position and #3 the outfield with a “fourth regular” replacing each starter for 40 games. The 13th position player could be a pinch hitter/runner or third catcher who might spend half of his season in AAA if 13 pitchers are needed.

Why would you want your 12th best player playing as often as your best player?

The only way your plan maximizes assets is if all 12 players are hypothetically exactly as good as each other, which isn't realistic.

[Mike Sixel]

Adrianza has decent speed to pinch run. Nobody steals any more, certainly not a pinch runner unless it is Buxton.

Bringing up Gordon for less than full-time play would be a mistake, I think.

I would like to see a situation where 12 guys shared 9 positions, each guy getting >450 plate appearances. In my mind, it would be four guys sharing 3 positions in three groupings. #1–catcher first and DH. A guy like Garver could start 40 at each (especially the way he’s hitting). #2–second, short, and third with a Marwin-type starting 40 at each position and #3 the outfield with a “fourth regular” replacing each starter for 40 games. The 13th position player could be a pinch hitter/runner or third catcher who might spend half of his season in AAA if 13 pitchers are needed.

Why is bringing up Gordon, if there is an injury, bad? He's not looking like a superstar, so service time isn't an issue. The post you replied to said Gordon could come up if polanco is hurt. They also have the short stop from the Yankees in AAA if someone is hurt.

[Vanimal46]

Adrianza is hitting 66.67% of his body weight right now. Why is he worth protecting? He needs to hit, quickly, or he's gone.

[Trov]

When Sano comes back, if the Twins keep 13 pitchers Adrianza gets the boot.  Adrianza is serviceable, but a huge drop off offensively and not that big of difference on defense.  Gonzalez, if not playing somewhere else, will get late innings on defense most likely for Sano.   

[stringer bell]

I doubt Adrianza gets DFAed any time soon. Gonzalez has not played an inning at second or short, so the obvious preference is to go with Ehire. 

 

Also 46 at-bats is a really small sample size. If Adrianza goes 4-4 or more realistically 6-14, he's hitting .200. Adrianza doesn't hit enough to be a regular, but he's a plus defender and a switch hitter who is accustomed to a reserve role. I'm sure there are many similar players, but they don't exactly grow on trees. The Twins don't want to lose him. (IMHO)

[stringer bell]

 

Why is bringing up Gordon, if there is an injury, bad? He's not looking like a superstar, so service time isn't an issue. The post you replied to said Gordon could come up if polanco is hurt. They also have the short stop from the Yankees in AAA if someone is hurt.

Development. Gordon hasn't mastered AAA, but he is a #1 draft choice. Having him sit on the bench and pinch run or play once or twice a week is not the way for him to develop into what he will be.

 

Ronald Torreyes is currently inactive for Rochester. I don't know the details, but I doubt he will be a recall for the Twins in the near future.

[Mike Sixel]

Development. Gordon hasn't mastered AAA, but he is a #1 draft choice. Having him sit on the bench and pinch run or play once or twice a week is not the way for him to develop into what he will be.

 

Ronald Torreyes is currently inactive for Rochester. I don't know the details, but I doubt he will be a recall for the Twins in the near future.

Again, he comes up if Polanco is hurt, why is he sitting on the bench?

[stringer bell]

 

Why would you want your 12th best player playing as often as your best player?
The only way your plan maximizes assets is if all 12 players are hypothetically exactly as good as each other, which isn't realistic.

It was a hypothetical. Actually, in my mind and using the current Twins roster, maybe the most legitimate scenario would be the trio of first base, catcher and DH. With both Castro and Garver raking, it kind of makes sense to get more in the lineup and if Garver is good enough at first base, perhaps they could get both of their (at least temporarily) hot bats in the lineup at once. Cruz is hitting too well to bench every fourth day, but having some sort of a platoon where a switch hitter covers more than one position could work for some team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, Adrianza just hit the 5 year service time threshold yesterday. That effectively means his salary is guaranteed, and he doesn't have to accept a minor league assignment either even if he clears waivers.

 

So if they wanted him off the 40-man roster, but also wanted to keep him in the organization, they should have done it yesterday. I have to imagine he would have cleared waivers. He's almost 30, with no options, and as noted, he is hitting poorly (even if it's largely a low BABIP). And he's even making more than double the minimum salary ($1.3 mil).

 

For his career, he has 937 PA, and he's been worth 0.8 bWAR / 1.5 fWAR over that time. And almost all of that is positional/replacement adjustment -- he's -30 Rbat and only +1 Rfield compared to average.

[stringer bell]

 

Again, he comes up if Polanco is hurt, why is he sitting on the bench?

Do you mean Injured List for Polanco or are you suggesting a DFA of Adrianza and then a recall of Gordon if Polanco is "nicked"? I don't know if a contending team would want to throw a younger player who hasn't mastered AAA out to be a regular shortstop (not sure if that's his best position either).

 

I'm guessing that Adrianza is considered the superior defensive shortstop and if he is on the roster, that he would fill in for a Polanco injury of short duration. If the injury was longer term, do you call up a rookie who has 0 MLB plate appearances? 

 

As far as Adrianza goes, no he's not a great hitter. However, I don't think 50 plate appearances is a large enough sample to project his offensive prowess. Last year, in more than 350 PAs, he had an OPS of .680, substandard but OK for a three-position backup infielder. I would expect similar if he was in the lineup three or four times a week for a month. I don't know what we''d get from Gordon.