Autonomous Vehicles

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah, let's promote that valuable life skill.

 

I'm not sure that was his actual point......

[MMMordabito]

 

They're doing it anyway WHILE they're operating a motor vehicle. It's better to take the driving aspect out of the equation.

 

Even though to me that seems an extreme way to correct bad behavior, I'm OK with them riding in those things, just as long as I'm not required to ride in one too.

 

You probably shouldn't have gone down the path of "Taking driving away from humans".  That's a bit too authoritarian for my liking. 

 

Yes, this advancement benefits everyone in the world... No more accidents as a result of someone checking their texts. No more drunk driving fatalities... Hell, there won't be any more people driving 20 MPH below the speed limit in the passing lane!

Taking driving away from humans is the best thing we can do to improve driving conditions in big cities.

 

[MMMordabito]

 

I'm not sure that was his actual point......

 

No, but it was passed off as behavior that should be accommodated with some giant lifestyle overhaul for everyone around them.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

No, but it was passed off as behavior that should be accommodated with some giant lifestyle overhaul for everyone around them.

 

No where in that post did he say anything about other people, and what would be required, or not, of them......

 

I'm betting it is about 2 generations before driving is something few people in cities do at all.

[MMMordabito]

 

No where in that post did he say anything about other people, and what would be required, or not, of them......

 

I'm betting it is about 2 generations before driving is something few people in cities do at all.

 

Maybe not in that post, but there has been a series of posts that specifically included the line "Taking driving away from humans".  

[Mr. Brooks]

No offense taken, and I don’t really see a contradiction between what you said and I said and maybe I was too harsh on the original poster.

 

Maybe 100 years from now, we’ll have 25-50 years of traffic data showing the lives saved.. That still means the technology is still decades away, and not right around the corner.

I don't think it's that far away, the 100 years was just a random number, far enough away for people to look back in astonishment that so many people used to die from something that to them will be incredibly rare, the same way we look back at polio or smallpox now.

 

I'd guess within 10 years, semiautonomous (human will still be required to be ready to take over) vehicles will have a significant share of the market. And within 25 years, the majority of vehicles on the road will be fully autonomous, no human supervision needed.

[Mr. Brooks]

Maybe not in that post, but there has been a series of posts that specifically included the line "Taking driving away from humans".

It's already been established concretely that driving is not a right. That is what allows for liability insurance to be a requirement to drive.

 

I'm sure some of the old timers were upset when seat belt laws were introduced, but they got over it.

Eventually cars will no longer be produced without this technology, just as cars are now no longer produced without air bags.

It's still legal to drive a car without air bags, technically, but only if you want to drive a 20+ year old vehicle.

 

The government has the authority to protect us from ourselves, especially when they aren't taking any rights away to do so, which again, driving is not a right. If you want to blame someone, blame the idiots that don't appreciate the responsibility that comes with operating a deadly weapon. It's their fault this will advance as quickly as it will, not the government or the car industry.

[ewen21]

I'm waiting to hear...

"Just download the app. This program will live your life for you!"

 

Computers crash, get viruses and freeze...traffic lights go out, etc. etc

This idea scares me. We are too busy with other things to pilot an automobile? Nonsense.

 

One of the very few "advancements" I oppose.

[Brock Beauchamp]

With all due respect, I don’t think this will ever happen.

 

The tech will never be able to replace a human driver. To not even mention winter states. Plus what Levi said, the policy is terrible (or should be). Companies planning around this have lost their way.

Google’s cars are already safer than the average human driver by quite a bit.

 

As for Tesla, no way do they offer truly autonomous cars in the next two years. Their deficiency is hardware-based. Without LIDAR and hardware redundancy, full autonomy will not happen.

 

Both Google and GM are way ahead of Tesla in self-driving vehicles.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I'm waiting to hear...
"Just download the app. This program will live your life for you!"

Computers crash, get viruses and freeze...traffic lights go out, etc. etc
This idea scares me. We are too busy with other things to pilot an automobile? Nonsense.

One of the very few "advancements" I oppose.

 

Um, humans have all sorts of failures too.  Way, way more often in fact.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

Um, humans have all sorts of failures too. Way, way more often in fact.

Waaaayyyyyyy more. People don’t understand just how advanced this tech already is and just how bad humans are at driving.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Waaaayyyyyyy more. People don’t understand just how advanced this tech already is and just how bad humans are at driving.

 

Pfft, that lady doing her make-up at 65 on the highway behind the dude shaving doing 70 have got this driving thing down pat.

 

Back in my day you could read the newspaper and barely get in any accidents!

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm waiting to hear...

"Just download the app. This program will live your life for you!"

 

Computers crash, get viruses and freeze...traffic lights go out, etc. etc

This idea scares me. We are too busy with other things to pilot an automobile? Nonsense.

 

One of the very few "advancements" I oppose.

Well stoplights do go out, but guess what? They have a fail safe that goes to a 4 way flashing, it's not possible for them to show green in contradictory directions.

 

40,000 people die every year in traffic accidents. If we cut that number we are safer.

Is your demand that it be 100% foolproof? Because we aren't getting close to that with human drivers.

If it still sometimes fails, but cuts that 40,000 to 4,000, is that not a huge advancement in safety?

 

Humans are terrible drivers, the numbers don't lie, and are frankly embarrassing. And you can be the safest driver on the road, and it's not going to matter if some moron crosses the centerline at the exact moment that you can't avoid them.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Waaaayyyyyyy more. People don’t understand just how advanced this tech already is and just how bad humans are at driving.

How far away are we (Google or GM or whoever) to fully autonomous vehicles? Like, messy city streets, no one monitoring or sitting behind the wheel waiting to take over “just in case.”

[Vanimal46]

How far away are we (Google or GM or whoever) to fully autonomous vehicles? Like, messy city streets, no one monitoring or sitting behind the wheel waiting to take over “just in case.”

20+ years most likely. I bet the insurance industry is going to throw a fit and block it as long as possible... With fully autonomous cars there's not much point to owning car liability insurance anymore.

 

Plus it's going to take that long regardless for everyone to adopt the concept and get their own autonomous vehicle. I doubt they're going to do a massive recall of the 1998 Buick LeSabres and 2000 Honda Accords out there on the roads.

[Mr. Brooks]

How far away are we (Google or GM or whoever) to fully autonomous vehicles? Like, messy city streets, no one monitoring or sitting behind the wheel waiting to take over “just in case.”

It doesn't need to be fully autonomous to start saving a ton of lives though.

I think people are overestimating just how often the "just in case" moments are going to occur.

[Mr. Brooks]

20+ years most likely. I bet the insurance industry is going to throw a fit and block it as long as possible... With fully autonomous cars there's not much point to owning car liability insurance anymore.

 

Plus it's going to take that long regardless for everyone to adopt the concept and get their own autonomous vehicle. I doubt they're going to do a massive recall of the 1998 Buick LeSabres and 2000 Honda Accords out there on the roads.

Unless the the accident rate is cut to 0%, which will never happen, liability insurance will still be required.

I actually think insurance companies will be a major proponent of this technology. Insurance companies fear risk more than anything.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It doesn't need to be fully autonomous to start saving a ton of lives though.

I think people are overestimating just how often the "just in case" moments are going to occur.

The safety argument makes sense, but I don’t see the appeal in being a safety driver, required to be sitting behind the wheel alert at all times, but not allowed to operate the vehicle. I’m assuming most drivers would feel the same.

[Brock Beauchamp]

How far away are we (Google or GM or whoever) to fully autonomous vehicles? Like, messy city streets, no one monitoring or sitting behind the wheel waiting to take over “just in case.”

Hard to say. The last few steps will be interesting to see unfold.

 

But right now, Cadillac is offering geo-fenced semi-autonomous driving on highways in a few models. And it’s better than Tesla.

 

Anyone who makes a hard prediction on an autonomous driving date is foolish. There could be a breakthrough tomorrow. There may not be a breakthrough for 20 years.

 

But it’s highly likely that within a generation, the tech is pretty rock solid. 5g wireless is an important step in the long term viability of the tech but few are talking about it.

[Mr. Brooks]

The safety argument makes sense, but I don’t see the appeal in being a safety driver, required to be sitting behind the wheel alert at all times, but not allowed to operate the vehicle. I’m assuming most drivers would feel the same.

With semi autonomous, you'll never not be allowed to operate the vehicle. It'll be like cruise control, the instant you input something, you've taken over.

 

And the appeal IS the safety. If that's not enough for people, then humans are even more selfish than I thought.

Driving for sport is what racetracks are for.

[LaBombo]

While it's short of autonomy even in the aggregate, the current widespread availability of things like GPS alerts, parking assist, lane keep assist, and proximity warnings for passing, reverse, and unsafe following distance continue to add to the expectation that soon all cars will, at the very least, help drivers not have accidents.

 

That being said, you can chalk me up as another person who'd rather hear that driving will not be necessary rather than not allowed.

[Mr. Brooks]

While it's short of autonomy even in the aggregate, the current widespread availability of things like GPS alerts, parking assist, lane keep assist, and proximity warnings for passing, reverse, and unsafe following distance continue to add to the expectation that soon all cars will, at the very least, help drivers not have accidents.

 

That being said, you can chalk me up as another person who'd rather hear that driving will not be necessary rather than not allowed.

I don't think it'll ever specifically be not allowed.

You are allowed to drive a car with no air bags now, if you are willing to drive a really old car. That's where I see autonomous cars going fairly soon.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think it'll ever specifically be not allowed.

You are allowed to drive a car with no air bags now, if you are willing to drive a really old car. That's where I see autonomous cars going fairly soon.

Legacy implementation and fandom will ensure that people CAN drive if they want to, likely for centuries.

 

I can still fire up a 1908 Harley and ride it, though I’m not sure why anyone would want to do so.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Hard to say. The last few steps will be interesting to see unfold.

But right now, Cadillac is offering geo-fenced semi-autonomous driving on highways in a few models. And it’s better than Tesla.

Anyone who makes a hard prediction on an autonomous driving date is foolish. There could be a breakthrough tomorrow. There may not be a breakthrough for 20 years.

But it’s highly likely that within a generation, the tech is pretty rock solid. 5g wireless is an important step in the long term viability of the tech but few are talking about it.

I will defer to you on the tech, but only to a point. However, there won’t be a political breakthrough tomorrow. That’s closer to 20 years away or more. People love to drive too much. People don’t want to be forced to sit in their truck or car but not allowed to steer or break. People love to drive. Always have. Maybe the 20-somethings want this new driverless stuff. I don’t know. Maybe the big companies should market this to them, then.

[Mike Sixel]

I would love not to drive most of my trips. I wonder how much it will hurt the hotel industry when the car can drive all night?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I will defer to you on the tech, but only to a point. However, there won’t be a political breakthrough tomorrow. That’s closer to 20 years away or more. People love to drive too much. People don’t want to be forced to sit in their truck or car but not allowed to steer or break. People love to drive. Always have. Maybe the 20-somethings want this new driverless stuff. I don’t know. Maybe the big companies should market this to them, then.

State governments have been falling over themselves to get these companies to operate in their regions.

 

So the politics don’t really fall on your side of things.

 

You need to step back for a moment and realize that you are not the people.

 

Personally, I LOVE to drive. I’m an avid motorcyclist and adore sports cars. Maybe that taints me a bit but most people suck at driving. They’re really, really bad at it.

 

I welcome those idiots being given an option that doesn’t involve their distracted asses being in control of the wheel.

 

And most of those distracted asses will agree once they realize they can sit on their phone instead of driving, which is what they want to do anyway.

 

(as a motorcyclist, I can’t really state how much you car drivers suck at your job... honestly, I’m amazed I’m not dead yet. bring on the automation to get rid of you entirely)

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I would love not to drive most of my trips. I wonder how much it will hurt the hotel industry when the car can drive all night?

Or help fix the homeless problem?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

However, there won’t be a political breakthrough tomorrow. That’s closer to 20 years away or more.

I focused too much on your wildly inaccurate statements after this instead of the meat of the subject, which is this.

 

Google thought they could launch a service in Phoenix last fall but it didn't really pan out. But they were confident they could do it as recently as last summer. They hit some bumps and postponed things (because Google is playing the super long card here) and, even though they lead the world in this, thought some more work was needed (largely because of Uber and Tesla being reckless).

 

We're not 20 years from this ****. We're maybe two, maybe ten, maybe fifteen years from it at most. Personally, I think we're about ten years from it. Tesla has its problems but it's collecting *mad* driver data despite its hardware issues. Cruise (the GM company) is going hard at San Francisco streets to show how its software can take the most challenging arenas. Google is going much wider; it's deploying its cars in a variety of streets and in massive numbers, but not as aggressively focused as Cruise.

 

This is going to play out quickly. I don't think people realize that once an algorithm and machine learning is implemented on this kind of scale, how much things will change... about everything.

 

And how much everything that comes before it will change it. Teaching a machine to put a bolt in a hole is easy. We've done that for years.

 

But the collaborative effort of teaching machines to understand and predict behavior in an open environment... Well, that's something else.

 

And we're on the cusp of that happening. And once it happens, all hell breaks loose economically.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I focused too much on your wildly inaccurate statements after this....

“People love to drive too much. People don’t want to be forced to sit in their truck or car but not allowed to steer or break. People love to drive. Always have. Maybe the 20-somethings want this new driverless stuff. I don’t know. Maybe the big companies should market this to them, then. ”

 

Honestly, what part about that is “wildly inaccurate”?

[PseudoSABR]

I just wanna say I love the fact there's a contentious and viable thread in the Sport Bar that's not politically related.  It took robots and cars, okay, but it's something.