Twins top prospects, fangraphs

[gunnarthor]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-41-prospects-minnesota-twins/

 

A few high end guys but mostly just a lot of depth. Twins have 35 players tagged with a FV of 40 or higher. Most teams are in the mid-20s on that.

 

Lastly, I thought this was interesting - 

 

"It’s incredible the system is as good as it is considering how little the Twins have done in the Dominican Republic over the last several years. Only two of the 40 FV or better players on here are original Twins signees from the DR. Indeed, they’ve done much better in odd places like Australia or Eastern Asia than in the Dominican. That may change now that they’ve made some personnel changes in International Scouting. They’ve also done very well in Venezuela despite abandoning their complex in 2016 due to the country’s ongoing turmoil.

Let’s watch the next Twins draft to see if their 2018 strategy (two underslot college mashers early, then a bunch of overslot picks throughout the rest of the draft’s first two days) becomes a multi-year ideology."

[Oldgoat_MN]

Underslot when drafting first means you can still get a very high quality player. I suspect that this decreases with each subsequent selection.

Scouting changes - you would think that a guy like Terry Ryan would have been good at evaluating other scouts, but the changes will be interesting to watch.

Good points. It may be enlightening to see what next year's draft looks like.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Thanks for sharing.

 

For reference, here's a direct link to last year's list:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-30-prospects-minnesota-twins/

 

Lewis and Kirilloff are both +10 FV compared to last year, Graterol +5 FV. (Edit to add: Duran is also +5 FV from Arizona's list last year.)

 

Gonsalves and Gordon are both -10 FV. Blankenhorn, Rooker, Wade, Baddoo are all -5 FV.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Last year we had a bunch of 40 FV guys too -- several have already dropped off:

 

Jaylin Davis
Jake Reed
Zack Littell
Andrew Bechtold
Ryley Widell
Tyler Jay
Alex Robinson

 

Plus Lewin Diaz was downgraded to a 35+. Also, Curtiss, Bard, and Granite probably would have dropped off had they stayed in the org.

 

40 FV depth is better than not having it, I guess, but those guys seem pretty fungible. I guess Hildenberger was rated at 40 FV 2 years ago, and Cave last year too. Burdi was 40 FV too, and is still there on the Pirates list.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Seems like most of our prospects are struggling, in general so far this season, no?

[h2oface]

 

Seems like most of our prospects are struggling, in general so far this season, no?

 

Royce Lewis is not so shiney so far this year, only hitting .203, In a return to High A. Kirilloff hasn't even played. Neither has Gordon. Rooker hitting .222 with 26 Ks in 54 ABs!

[bird]

 

Seems like most of our prospects are struggling, in general so far this season, no?

 

 

 

Not really. It's way way too early in the season to react to stats for one. Second, if you quickly go through the list, you'll see that half of the prospects are actually performing quite well. Which supports a third point: at least half of the prospects on any team's list are going to reach a level and then peter out. We should expect this, and can even sort of predict who they'll be.

[nicksaviking]

Overall this year the arms look better than the bats.

 

But it's early, I'm not panicking until the weather heats up.

[gunnarthor]

Lewis is walking 16% of the time so it seems he's becoming more patient. His babip is a bit low (.264) and would expect it to improve a bit. It's too early to worry - he hasn't even had 70 at-bats yet.

 

I think for most of these guys this early in the season, you don't really worry about the stats. If Lewis goes 4-4, it raises his avg nearly 40 points.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Lewis is walking 16% of the time so it seems he's becoming more patient. His babip is a bit low (.264) and would expect it to improve a bit. It's too early to worry - he hasn't even had 70 at-bats yet.

 

I think for most of these guys this early in the season, you don't really worry about the stats. If Lewis goes 4-4, it raises his avg nearly 40 points.

 

Correct... it is fair to say that Lewis (and others) are off to slow starts while at the same time acknowledging that it doesn't mean much other than it's a slow start. Same thing with a fast start this early. 

[h2oface]

 

Correct... it is fair to say that Lewis (and others) are off to slow starts while at the same time acknowledging that it doesn't mean much other than it's a slow start. Same thing with a fast start this early. 

 

But..... who wouldn't like/want a fast start (Vlad jr) instead of a slow start?

 

Everybody.

 

And.... Lewis is repeating or returning to High A, and not advancing to AA to start the season.

[Seth Stohs]

 

But..... who wouldn't like/want a fast start (Vlad jr) instead of a slow start?

 

Everybody.

 

And.... Lewis is repeating or returning to High A, and not advancing to AA to start the season.

 

Everyone wants a fast start,  for sure. 

 

As for repeating... he spent like 6 weeks in Ft. Myers last year which i sa bit different than spending the full season or even half of a season (like Kirilloff). 

[h2oface]

 

Everyone wants a fast start,  for sure. 

 

As for repeating... he spent like 6 weeks in Ft. Myers last year which i sa bit different than spending the full season or even half of a season (like Kirilloff). 

 

Yup. Well known recent history.

[jkcarew]

The primary unfavorable early results for Lewis are tied to SLG. Last year 5 HR in his 208 PA at Fort Myers. This year, zero so far in 87....and not many x-base hits of any kind. Meanwhile, he’s also striking out at a slightly higher rate than he did during his 2018 Fort Myers stint. He did start slow last year at Cedar Rapids, as well. Not this slow, but slow.