Article: Hello? Rochester... Please Send Help

[gocgo]

It's April 11.  It's cold.  Pitching a baseball is not easy...especially for anyone who didn't grow up in cold weather.  Anyone wanting to get rid of any pitchers this early, doesn't know squat about pitching or cold weather or anything else that I care about.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Hi Seth;

I have questions as opposed to opinions:

1. You wrote: "The Twins wanted to call up Zack Littell last weekend but because the season was not yet ten days old, they were unable to." Might I ask why? Is it an IL thing?

2. "Following the game, he (DeYong)was returned to Rochester since he would be unable to pitch for the Twins for several days.
Is this because he threw 46 pitches?

3. I know you are being thorough, but Adams 6.49 ERA, Duffy at 4.56, Guilmet at 9.27 doesn't instill confidence. Seth, do think any of these could actually add value to the Twins?

4. I'd love to hear your opinion on Magill and / or Reed. Are they an improvement?

Finally, when the populous of earth decides to make me Emperor, I'll make you head of the Twins. What would you recommend about pitching?

4.

 

Good questions, thank you!

 

1.) As Doogie reported, Littell was the one that they initially wanted to call up. However because the season was less than ten days (it was nine) old, you can't call up an optioned player within 10 days unless there is an injury. That is me guessing, of course, but it's all I can come up with for the change of mind and needed DFAing of Austin. 

 

2.) Correct. DeJong wouldn't have been able to pitch on Wednesday night... It'll be interesting to see when Rochester has him start next. 

 

3.) I was just showing who is in Rochester as those could be the next guys called up. The ERAs hardly matter because the innings pitched are generally so small. Guilmet and Adams are over 30. Adams signed out of an indy league. But he is throwing 94-96 now. Maybe he's figured something out. I think you would take them calling up those guys as exactly what it is. Duffey, he's struggled and last year was rough, but he does have some stuff. In my opinion, with relievers from year to year (MLB signings or MiLB signings),, you never know. 

 

4.) Magill doesn't have the ERA/WHIP/FIP stuff that you'd like to see, but I love his arm. I'm fine with giving him opportunities. Addison Reed? I mean ,when healthy, he's terrific. One of the most consistent relievers in baseball when he was healthy. Last year was the first year he wasn't healthy. He was good early last year too before the injury. 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Reach out to Bud Norris & Jim Johnson. Both still unsigned and both have the ability to close if needed.

 

I think Norris signed with someone this week. 

 

I see that the Norris deal fell threw... That'll teach me  to respond without looking ahead. 

[RaoulDuke]

 

Hard to disagree with the need to get another BP arm and the concerns about Odorizzi not being able to go more than 4-5 innings. Problem is that the AAA BP is pretty bare other than maybe Morin and the pitching talent that is there mostly young starting pitching. Is there a match that solves both? You know what, Maybe there is. Couple of thoughts:

 

(1) Make Odorizzi the BP arm and bring up Kohl Stewart or Romero to start. Overpaid as a long man, but really seems to fit his talent level/profile. Really good as your 6th starter and could be a trade chip at the deadline for a team desperate for starting pitching.  Stewart did well last year, admittedly against September lineups, same for Romero in the front of the year.  I think both represent viable options now as a starter. Gonsalves and Thorpe are not ready to start in the bigs yet and I think Little is only an eventual no.6/7 starter/BP arm IMHO.

 

(2) Make Perez a BP guy all season. He doesn't look like a starter. Looks more like a 1 inning maybe 2 inning reliever, which is what Texas was going to do with him.  He's in the Bullpen, leave him there. I say do this regardless of whether you do No. 1 except then you have to start 2 of Stewart, Romero and Littel. 

 

(3) Leave things as is and call up Mike Morin or Ryan Eades. Morin was a so-so reliever for the Angels until getting hurt and could add depth. Eades looked good in ST, decent in the Minors the last 2 years. Same depth kind of guy. I'd start with Morin. 

 

Whatever we do, send Vasquez back down. Can;t keep him here after that performance. He looked scared and simply not ready. The rest of the roster won't trust him and I think it would be bad for his development to go out and pitch badly a second time. Tell him you still have faith in him but that he needs more time and he'll be back up this year if he does will in AAA. Send him to Rochester and replace him with one of the guys mentioned above.  Whatever we do, let's not keep him up and take the risk of watching him implode again.  Bad for him, bad for the team's morale, and not a risk worth taking IMHO.  

 

Odorizzi interests me as a bullpen guy as well.  It seems like his stuff could play up if he wasn't trying to hold back and it would certainly minimize his weakness of getting out of the 5th.

 

There isn't enough depth at SP to do it though.  Maybe if Gonzalvez wasn't hurt or they hadn't messed with Romero, even then its thin.

[Rosterman]

Need to stretch some guys out at Rochester. And also see what do have. Worried that Odorizzi would be a five inning pitcher. Hopefully Pineda goes deeper. Not sure about the greatness of Perez. I would almost start Mejia at this point, but sure Perez will be the first option. There are at least placesetter arms.

 

But, why or why did you throw a rookie into a bases loaded situation?

 

What might've happened if you ahd used Taylor Rogers for that one batter?

 

[DocBauer]

Oh boy, where to start?

 

1) That game last night was not only frustrating but downright embarrassing! Did Rocco out think/manage himself? I absolutely think he did. But really, score was 2-1 or 3-1...its all a blur at this point...and we couldn't get ONE MORE OUT? At some point, it's on the pitchers. I'm concerned to be sure, and we all know we need better. But 10 games in? Im not getting out whips or pitchforks for anyone.

 

2] Barring a trade, the improvement must come from the IL and Romero. Reed deserves a shot, but do you feel good about anyone else there? I sure don't! Could a SP help? Yes, even though I'd rather keep them starting.

 

But that brings up point 3:

 

3] Odorizzi is not a bad arm or a bad pitcher. What he is is a quality 5th SP who has flashed better at times, especially at the tail end of the past 2 seasons. But right now he's our 4th SP and that's the problem. (And my opinion as I believed before the season began a healthy Pineda would be our #3).

 

While there is potential at Rochester, today, there is nobody ready to replace Perez, much less Odorizzi. He should be our #5 SP or in the pen, where his SO ability plays, and where he can pitch multiple innings if necessary. Just not going to happen anytime soon.

[Mr. Brooks]

After one start this year there was actually a post about Garver receiving so many negative tweets that he was going to avoid twitter. Just a couple games later he is a hero. May and Berrios and countless others have been written off at one point by fans. Of course there are others who have done just fine right out of the gate. Rosario on his first pitch comes to mind. Maybe breaking into the league by inches is desirable for some but not for everyone. These are presumably elite and confident athletes and this is the 2018 minor league pitcher of the year for Pete's sake. He has like a 1.5 ERA in his career. There is good reason to think there is at least a 70% chance he would get his guy out and only a 1% chance that he won't get an out or a ball in play. He's a professional reliever with a good track record so lets lay a little of the blame at his feet for simply not getting the job done. He's also a professional reliever with a good track record so lets not be so quick to assume he is not a good answer going forward.

Who are you talking about?

Vasquez has all of 5 career innings, so not only does he not have a good track record, he doesn't have a track record.

[Mr. Brooks]

Last night, we needed a fireman. We didn't have one unfortunately...

 

Kimbrel would certainly have his bad moments, and even if he signed now, he woudln't be ready for a few weeks at best... Regardless, we needed him last night.

 

We should have signed him. We still could...

Is there a way to force a free agent to take way less money and years than they are demanding?

If not, then no, they shouldn't have signed him. Signing him to those terms would have been awful.

[Mr. Brooks]

And a 2R single for a total of -.120 WPA. He let 3 runs in and got one hitter out. Not sure in what kind of universe this is "solid"...

He has 6 K's and 1 BB in 3 2/3 innings. You are right, that's not solid, it's excellent.

[yarnivek1972]

I think that's a little cherry picking of the stats. Last year, Hildenberger was the worst full time reliever on the team in terms of inherited runners scoring at 50%. Addison Reed was at 20%, Rogers 23%, Moya 33.3%, Pressley 34%, Magill 39%, Rodney 10%. He was the worst full time reliever we had last year in stranding inherited runners,and by a pretty significant margin. He was ahead of only Ryan LaMarre and Aaron Slegers who each went 1 game in relief. He was better in 2017. Was last the result of him being figured out or of over use? I say its a little of both but mostly the former; sounds like you think the latter.

 

I think we are in trouble if Hildenberger has to be a "key guy" in the bullpen. If your point isn't that he is an above average reliever who can perform as a key guy but that he may need to be a key guy as the bullpen is presently constituted, you may be right but I don't see that as a good thing. To me, that just points out our lack of depth. Even if we use career stats over the most recent performance shown in the the stats last year, he's basically a little below average at stranding runners. Add to that a career 4.47 ERA and 3.90 FIP over 116 games, including the games this year, and 1.256 WHIP and you have an averageish MLB reliever. That doesn't strike me as a guy we can rely upon as a key guy; that strikes me as an depth guy.

 

How is stating his CAREER IR/IS percentage cherry picking?

 

Basing a decision solely on last year would be cherry picking IMO.

Edited April 11, 2019 by yarnivek1972

[Mike Sixel]

I'd rather have Keuchel than a RP.....but then, I'm looking at next year's SP, not just this year's......One good SP under contract past this year. One.

[Dantes929]

 

Who are you talking about?
Vasquez has all of 5 career innings, so not only does he not have a good track record, he doesn't have a track record.

He has a 1.5 ERA in 5 seasons in the minors and his rookie ball season was his worst.   He was Twins minor league reliever of the year last year.   Of course that's not going to translate to 1.5 ERA in the Majors but it should translate way better than infinite ERA.    Taylor Rogers had a less impressive minor league career and had a 7.36 ERA after 3 appearances.    I'm willing to give him more than just one chance.

[USAFChief]

 

Let's start with 90 wins as our goal. Let's say we only get 6 innings out of our starters in all 90 of those games. That means we need 270 innings worth of bullpen usage in those games. If you have 4 guys who throw all of those innings they're all throwing 67.5 innings.

 

That's obviously a ridiculously perfect situation, but that's the plan you build for when you're a small to midmarket team because it's not sustainable to pay bullpen guys big money because they're too volatile. The argument I made in my post was you want 3 shut down type guys to lock down sure wins. Then you have 1 or 2 others are quite reliable. That's 4 or 5 guys. Yes, every guy in the pen will throw innings, but the plan is to use those 4 or 5 in the "important innings." 

 

Good bullpens do have multiple good arms, 3-5 of them. They don't have 8 guys that they expect to use regularly in high leverage situations. They have 3-5 and then pop some of those other few in there in the 6th or 7th in stretches where the team is in a bunch of close games. But that's only a few stretches of the season. Vasquez was brutal last night, yes. But to act like the bullpen is just collapsing right now is inaccurate. Harper, Hildy, and May haven't allowed runs yet. Rogers and Parker have allowed 1. That's 2 runs in 21+ innings. That's your 4 guys you're counting on at the end of games and 1 random guy. The expectation is that Romero will come up and be a 5th end of game guy. What else do you realistically want from a bullpen? This article and thread have people acting like the season is over because some random dude the team was never counting on came in and was absolutely brutal in 1 game. But in reality the bullpen is doing it's job. It's not doing the extra stuff the starters are forcing it to try to do.

You plan for 6 innings in every game you win, and plan ahead for your top 4 relievers to only pitch on those days?

 

Do you schedule the wins in advance?

[yarnivek1972]

We;re talking about a

 

Career stats? We're talking about a guy who pitched in 37 games, 42 innings in 2107 and 73 games, 73 innings in 2018. That's his entire career. From a statistical standpoint, last year's results are more probative than two years ago as more recent sample and as a bigger sample. I didn't say your stats were inaccurate, a word you unfortunately improperly used for mine, I said there were less probative and less predictive of future results. Glass houses and all that. Hildenberger hasn't yet had much of a career; he's more had a carafe of coffee.

 

I just think we see the same thing and come to different conclusions. I would love to see Hildenberger become Rogers, or even Blake Parker, I just don't see it happening. I think relying on that so we have enough quality bullpen depth is a mistake because it is more likely than not he will repeat last year, not 2017. I'm fine with having him. We just need one or two more guys like Rogers or even Parker so Hildenberger doesn't have to be a key guy.

I absolutely don’t agree that last year is more indicative of future results because I still maintain he was WAY overused in the first couple months last year when this team was wasting roster spots on Hughes et al. He appeared in his 24th game in team game 50 on May 29. 10 of his appearances to that point were longer than 1 IP. That is a very heavy workload, particularly for a guy who, as you mentioned, does not have a lot of MLB experience.

 

I for one want to see what he can do when not overworked early.

[Mr. Brooks]

He has a 1.5 ERA in 5 seasons in the minors and his rookie ball season was his worst. He was Twins minor league reliever of the year last year. Of course that's not going to translate to 1.5 ERA in the Majors but it should translate way better than infinite ERA. Taylor Rogers had a less impressive minor league career and had a 7.36 ERA after 3 appearances. I'm willing to give him more than just one chance.

I wouldn't put much weight behind milb numbers for a relief pitcher, and I'd put absolutely none behind milb ERA.

A lot of guys can get milb hitters out. I don't think Vasquez has the stuff to do it in mlb.

 

Also, I didn't realize we were discussing never giving him another chance. Of course he should get another chance.

I thought the discussion was should he have been used in that spot.

 

More than anything though, I just don't agree that any amount of milb experience or success qualifies as a "track record" regarding mlb play.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Pineda has a 2.00 ERA. WAY too early to write off Odorizzi for the season.

sure they can be effective starters, but Pineda as the second best starter on this team is coming back from TJ and is clearly on a 4 inning per start limit. Odorizzi has a 5 1/3 inning per start average and Perez is awful and going 2 innings in long relief every 5th day. Even if they can be effective in short starts, 7 out of 10 starts are bullpen games.

 

When Gibson gets some better endurance, 5 out of 10...

Edited April 11, 2019 by Sconnie

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The majority of starts in MLB last year were five and one third..... Pitching has changed.

average was 5.4 innings per start. Twins were 5.1 innings per start good for 26th place. The season is young, things can absolutely change, but we have yet to see the Twins 5th starter, or 6-8. Currently at 5 innings per start but average is 5.2 presumably because the Twins aren’t the only team getting short starts coming out of spring training.

[yarnivek1972]

Well, I think we're starting to agree one thing. I do think he was overworked last year and it hurt his performance. 73 appearances is too many for any reliever. I would like to see how he does as a 50-60 appearance guy. I just don't see the upside you do.

I don’t think he’s closer material, whatever that even means anymore. But I think if spotted correctly, he can be extremely effective. Particularly with guys on. He can make hitters look pretty bad. But, yes, with more exposure, his lack of “big time stuff” will be problematic. I see no reason he can’t be a Pat Neshek type. He’s still going strong at 38.

[chpettit19]

 

You plan for 6 innings in every game you win, and plan ahead for your top 4 relievers to only pitch on those days?

 

Do you schedule the wins in advance?

No, I expect to get 7 or 8 out of my starters in most of my wins. I was using 6 innings to prove the point that you don't need 8 Riveras in your bullpen, but instead need 3 really good arms, 2 guys a notch under them, and then fill in guys. Some of the wins will be like Tuesday when you don't need to use any of your stud arms because you put up 14. There's a certain segment of people on this thread that act like the good bullpens out there are running 8 all stars out there. That's not the case. If May, Rogers, and Parker are legit late inning guys, and especially if Romero settles in to a bullpen role and comes up as well, you're in good shape. My point in all of my posts on this thread is that the starters are putting the bullpen in a position to fail by "forcing" Rocco to use his mop up guys in spots they aren't meant to be in there for. If you don't believe in Rogers, May, and Parker then the bullpen is a major problem. But if you think those guys will come in and shut it down 85%+ of the time you're in a good spot. 

 

Most major league teams look to win series. So you're talking 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 4 games. 3 shut down guys and 1 or 2 guys who can fill in on a less frequent basis is plenty for getting that done. I don't know what some of the people on here want the bullpen to be. $12+ mil for each of 8 shut down guys? I mean be realistic with what major league bullpens look like.

 

This entire article and thread is Example A in small sample size, 1 bad early season showing non-sense. If you want to complain about pitching complain about the fact that Berrios is the only trustworthy starter we have so far. That's the hole in this team currently, not the bullpen.

[Dantes929]

 

I wouldn't put much weight behind milb numbers for a relief pitcher, and I'd put absolutely none behind milb ERA.
A lot of guys can get milb hitters out. I don't think Vasquez has the stuff to do it in mlb.

Also, I didn't realize we were discussing never giving him another chance. Of course he should get another chance.
I thought the discussion was should he have been used in that spot.

More than anything though, I just don't agree that any amount of milb experience or success qualifies as a "track record" regarding mlb play.

Yeah, fair enough but relievers don't just magically appear.    Milb success is still the best indicator and I don't think a lot of guys get out milb hitters as well as Vasquez has.    As far as should he have been used in that spot, if he had done his job and gotten the guy out we probably aren't having this discussion.   

[jkcarew]

Aren’t the bullpen’s issues easier to take for the thousand or so of you that predicted exactly this?.......No?

 

Fandom.

[USAFChief]

 

No, I expect to get 7 or 8 out of my starters in most of my wins. I was using 6 innings to prove the point that you don't need 8 Riveras in your bullpen, but instead need 3 really good arms, 2 guys a notch under them, and then fill in guys. Some of the wins will be like Tuesday when you don't need to use any of your stud arms because you put up 14. There's a certain segment of people on this thread that act like the good bullpens out there are running 8 all stars out there. That's not the case. If May, Rogers, and Parker are legit late inning guys, and especially if Romero settles in to a bullpen role and comes up as well, you're in good shape. My point in all of my posts on this thread is that the starters are putting the bullpen in a position to fail by "forcing" Rocco to use his mop up guys in spots they aren't meant to be in there for. If you don't believe in Rogers, May, and Parker then the bullpen is a major problem. But if you think those guys will come in and shut it down 85%+ of the time you're in a good spot. 

 

Most major league teams look to win series. So you're talking 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 4 games. 3 shut down guys and 1 or 2 guys who can fill in on a less frequent basis is plenty for getting that done. I don't know what some of the people on here want the bullpen to be. $12+ mil for each of 8 shut down guys? I mean be realistic with what major league bullpens look like.

 

This entire article and thread is Example A in small sample size, 1 bad early season showing non-sense. If you want to complain about pitching complain about the fact that Berrios is the only trustworthy starter we have so far. That's the hole in this team currently, not the bullpen.

The Twins are short of starting pitching, you have that part correct.

 

But they're just as short, if not shorter, in the pen. You can't get through the season with three arms. You can rarely even get through a series.

[Mr. Brooks]

No, I expect to get 7 or 8 out of my starters in most of my wins. I was using 6 innings to prove the point that you don't need 8 Riveras in your bullpen, but instead need 3 really good arms, 2 guys a notch under them, and then fill in guys. Some of the wins will be like Tuesday when you don't need to use any of your stud arms because you put up 14. There's a certain segment of people on this thread that act like the good bullpens out there are running 8 all stars out there. That's not the case. If May, Rogers, and Parker are legit late inning guys, and especially if Romero settles in to a bullpen role and comes up as well, you're in good shape. My point in all of my posts on this thread is that the starters are putting the bullpen in a position to fail by "forcing" Rocco to use his mop up guys in spots they aren't meant to be in there for. If you don't believe in Rogers, May, and Parker then the bullpen is a major problem. But if you think those guys will come in and shut it down 85%+ of the time you're in a good spot.

 

Most major league teams look to win series. So you're talking 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 4 games. 3 shut down guys and 1 or 2 guys who can fill in on a less frequent basis is plenty for getting that done. I don't know what some of the people on here want the bullpen to be. $12+ mil for each of 8 shut down guys? I mean be realistic with what major league bullpens look like.

 

This entire article and thread is Example A in small sample size, 1 bad early season showing non-sense. If you want to complain about pitching complain about the fact that Berrios is the only trustworthy starter we have so far. That's the hole in this team currently, not the bullpen.

Not one person expects 8 all stars in the pen.

There is a wide gap between reliable, capable relievers, and all stars.

The top teams have contributors top to bottom in the bullpen, not 3 or 4 then the rest mop up guys.

[Doctor Wu]

I understand the concerns with the Twins pitching but I think it's way too soon to panic or to start tossing around trade ideas or even free agent signings. It's only April 12, plus as someone mentioned already, the weather's been pretty frigid overall. Let's wait another month and stretch these guys out more and see how the dust settles. I think we have enough in-house options to sustain us for now. Not saying that we necessarily have a playoff-caliber staff, but I see enough encouraging signs (Pineda especially) that I'm not ready to worry too much at this point.

[Mike Sixel]

I understand the concerns with the Twins pitching but I think it's way too soon to panic or to start tossing around trade ideas or even free agent signings. It's only April 12, plus as someone mentioned already, the weather's been pretty frigid overall. Let's wait another month and stretch these guys out more and see how the dust settles. I think we have enough in-house options to sustain us for now. Not saying that we necessarily have a playoff-caliber staff, but I see enough encouraging signs (Pineda especially) that I'm not ready to worry too much at this point.

Of course, our opinions are also based on last year, not just this year. Not to mention they only have Berrios for next year.....

[Mr. Brooks]

I understand the concerns with the Twins pitching but I think it's way too soon to panic or to start tossing around trade ideas or even free agent signings. It's only April 12, plus as someone mentioned already, the weather's been pretty frigid overall. Let's wait another month and stretch these guys out more and see how the dust settles. I think we have enough in-house options to sustain us for now. Not saying that we necessarily have a playoff-caliber staff, but I see enough encouraging signs (Pineda especially) that I'm not ready to worry too much at this point.

Some of these guys we knew were unlikely to be good coming into the season though. It's not really panicking to still feel that way.

[yarnivek1972]

No, I expect to get 7 or 8 out of my starters in most of my wins. I was using 6 innings to prove the point that you don't need 8 Riveras in your bullpen, but instead need 3 really good arms, 2 guys a notch under them, and then fill in guys. Some of the wins will be like Tuesday when you don't need to use any of your stud arms because you put up 14. There's a certain segment of people on this thread that act like the good bullpens out there are running 8 all stars out there. That's not the case. If May, Rogers, and Parker are legit late inning guys, and especially if Romero settles in to a bullpen role and comes up as well, you're in good shape. My point in all of my posts on this thread is that the starters are putting the bullpen in a position to fail by "forcing" Rocco to use his mop up guys in spots they aren't meant to be in there for. If you don't believe in Rogers, May, and Parker then the bullpen is a major problem. But if you think those guys will come in and shut it down 85%+ of the time you're in a good spot.

 

Most major league teams look to win series. So you're talking 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 4 games. 3 shut down guys and 1 or 2 guys who can fill in on a less frequent basis is plenty for getting that done. I don't know what some of the people on here want the bullpen to be. $12+ mil for each of 8 shut down guys? I mean be realistic with what major league bullpens look like.

 

This entire article and thread is Example A in small sample size, 1 bad early season showing non-sense. If you want to complain about pitching complain about the fact that Berrios is the only trustworthy starter we have so far. That's the hole in this team currently, not the bullpen.

Expecting 7 or 8 innings out of your starter in most of your wins when the average start is barely 5 is extremely unrealistic. Gibson and Berrios had two of the best seasons for a Twins starter not named Ervin probably since Johan was in a Twins uni. They combined for 7 or more innings in just 24 of 64 of their starts. Compare that with Brad Radke and Eric Milton circa 2001 who went 7 or more in 39 of 66 starts. And both of those guys were pedestrian starters at best.

 

It’s simply a different era. Even great starters go 7-8 innings less than half the time nowadays.

[VATwinsFan]

Tyler Kinley seems to be doing a pretty job in Miami this year -- 7.2 innings, 1 R, 8 Ks, 2 W, WHIP of 0.78.

 

We could always try and get him.

[Mr. Brooks]

Tyler Kinley seems to be doing a pretty job in Miami this year -- 7.2 innings, 1 R, 8 Ks, 2 W, WHIP of 0.78.

 

We could always try and get him.

It's only 8 innings, so those numbers don't mean a ton. But, I wish they would have kept him. I was always a supporter of his potential and rostering, even against an avalanche of disagreement.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Tyler Kinley seems to be doing a pretty job in Miami this year -- 7.2 innings, 1 R, 8 Ks, 2 W, WHIP of 0.78.

 

We could always try and get him.

FWIW, Kinley's still being used in mop-up situations -- .58 gmLI so far in 2019. About the same as Perez, or Belisle last year, etc.

 

But he had a good spring too.