Article: Tyler Austin Traded to San Francisco

[jkcarew]

 

Belt to LF (made a small handful of appearances in the OF in 2018)...Austin to 1B. They’re not going to play Austin in the OF.

Wrong! Austin gets a start in LF against a lefty. Belt benched, and Buster Posey plays first base. So, they'd rather have Austin in the OF than Buster Posey. (Austin was removed for a left-handed pinch-hitter later in the game.)

Edited April 10, 2019 by jkcarew

[Mike Sixel]

 

Wrong! Austin gets a start in LF against a lefty. Belt benched, and Buster Posey plays first base. So, they'd rather have Austin in the OF than Buster Posey. (Austin was removed for a right-handed pinch-hitter later in the game.)

 

fascinating. Especially since the Twins refused to use him in the OF last year, or in spring training, as many of us hoped they would.

[big dog]

 

Wrong! Austin gets a start in LF against a lefty. Belt benched, and Buster Posey plays first base. So, they'd rather have Austin in the OF than Buster Posey. (Austin was removed for a right-handed pinch-hitter later in the game.)

I might rather have an actual outfielder in the outfield, personally.  It will be fun to see how long this experiment last.  I'd love to see Tyler get a real chance somewhere.

[jkcarew]

 

I might rather have an actual outfielder in the outfield, personally.  It will be fun to see how long this experiment last.  I'd love to see Tyler get a real chance somewhere.

Yep...it's probably fair to call what they are do experimenting. Out of the gate they seem to have it like this (in terms of Left Field) Belt > Austin > Posey. Hopefully, the experimenting will result in somewhat regular at-bats for Austin so we can see what he can be.

[Mr. Brooks]

I literally said 2 of them might hit, not sure how I'm counting chickens........I left off Baddoo and about 6 other players in the minors that can probably hit and field as well as Austin will. Of course any ONE of them is a long shot, but it isn't a long shot that they have a replacement level player that will play 1B and DH in their system.......

Because the 2 who are most likely to hit are not first basemen.

 

I'm struggling to figure out why you keep using outfield prospects as examples of players that can replace first baseman Tyler Austin. You just did it again with Baddoo.

 

Literally the only guy you've named who I think is a 1B/DH AND has a legit chance to make it to MLB is Rooker. Zander Weil is a 1B/DH type, but is an extreme longshot. The rest have more value in the OF or C, if they even make it.

[Mr. Brooks]

That doesn't seem fair, as Rooker and Austin are basically the same person through their age 23 seasons. In Austin's age 24 season (repeating AAA), he broke back into .900 OPS territory after scuffling at sub-.750 levels for two seasons. Rooker could easily bounce back to .900 OPS territory this year in Rochester.

 

Essentially, Rooker has posted two .900+ OPS seasons and one .800 OPS season. I'm not sure why you'd think he's significantly different than Austin, other than Austin is older and has actually gotten a chance to hit MLB pitching, albeit at a pretty pedestrian rate.

We agree, they are the same player, pretty much.

It's just that Austin has already made it to MLB, and I personally think Rooker's ceiling is capped.

 

Again, I'm the extreme low man on Rooker on this site, that's fine I'll wear it if I'm wrong.

[Mr. Brooks]

Again, the early tea-leaves indicate Austin might be used to platoon at 1B and come off the bench. Last night's starter for the opponent was a lefty. Austin started at first, and Belt moved to LF. Let's see what happens when they see a few right-handed starters.

 

Bottom line, it's kind of moot. Once Cron was signed, there was no way Austin was going to remain on the 25-man roster all year, or even very long (outside of injury to Cron/Cruz).

It's not moot to me. My biggest criticism of the situation is that they signed Cron instead of letting Austin have the job for a full season.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Because the 2 who are most likely to hit are not first basemen.

I'm struggling to figure out why you keep using outfield prospects as examples of players that can replace first baseman Tyler Austin. You just did it again with Baddoo.

Literally the only guy you've named who I think is a 1B/DH AND has a legit chance to make it to MLB is Rooker. Zander Weil is a 1B/DH type, but is an extreme longshot. The rest have more value in the OF or C, if they even make it.

 

because they have three young starting OFers, they have 4-7 legit OF prospects, and one or more will move to DH/1B.....see Cody Bellinger as an example.......

 

So, no, we don't agree that none of those will ever move to 1B or DH (and backup OF) (and, as I posted later, I'm betting 1B is Sano or Rooker medium term or longer).

 

Also, as Mauer reminds us, sometimes catchers become 1B......

Edited April 10, 2019 by Mike Sixel

[Mr. Brooks]

Exactly. I can never figure out why people fail to realize how fungible questionable bat-first, corner "prospects" are in baseball.

 

Yeah, you'll occasionally get burned by releasing the wrong one. But in between those mistakes, you'll likely jettison a bunch of Kennys Vargas, Joe Benson, et al type of players and not play a subpar player in MLB games in the meantime, nor will you waste a roster spot better used on a more flexible player with upside.

Why is Austin fungible and Cron isn't?

 

My whole point is that I think they chose the wrong one.

So when you say, "yeah occasionally you'll get burned by releasing the wrong one", that's kinda where I'm at.

I think Austin can easily match anything Cron can do, except he comes with the flexibility of 6 years and less money.

Sure, as Mike suggests, another prospect may come along that can replace him. But there isn't one here yet, and I'd rather wait until there is before I throw away that flexibility. Bird in hand/Bush, etc.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Why is Austin fungible and Cron isn't?

My whole point is that I think they chose the wrong one.
So when you say, "yeah occasionally you'll get burned by releasing the wrong one", that's kinda where I'm at.
I think Austin can easily match anything Cron can do, except he comes with the flexibility of 6 years and less money.
Sure, as Mike suggests, another prospect may come along that can replace him. But there isn't one here yet, and I'd rather wait until there is before I throw away that flexibility. Bird in hand/Bush, etc.

 

I don't think it is unrealistic to expect Austin to be better this year and next, I just don't think he will be. But I'm not all that confident, frankly. 

[Mr. Brooks]

because they have three young starting OFers, they have 4-7 legit OF prospects, and one or more will move to DH/1B.....see Cody Bellinger as an example.......

 

So, no, we don't agree that none of those will ever move to 1B or DH (and backup OF) (and, as I posted later, I'm betting 1B is Sano or Rooker medium term or longer).

 

Also, as Mauer reminds us, sometimes catchers become 1B......

Bellinger's bat plays anywhere. Aside from Kiriloff, we have a long ways to go before any of those other prospects you mention come even close to having a bat that plays at MLB 1B.

Kepler is an elite defensive outfielder. I'll be upset if he moves to first base any time soon.

 

Sure, Garver could get hurt and have to move to 1B, but two points on that:

 

1) That hasn't happened yet, and might not any time soon.

2) Garver's bat isn't any better than Austin's, and Austin is younger.

 

I think we are getting lost in the weeds here debating which prospects might play where and when. My main objection is that I'd rather wait until we actually have better options before we let Austin go, not let him go because some day we will have better options.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't think it is unrealistic to expect Austin to be better this year and next, I just don't think he will be. But I'm not all that confident, frankly.

I also don't like how our roster dynamic changes should Cron get hurt today.

Who becomes our everyday 1B?

 

Astudillo? We don't know if he can play 1B, and even if he can, he's much more valuable at C and 3B.

Gonzalez? I'd rather him be the super sub that he was signed to be. Not to mention his bat likely doesn't come close to playing 1B everyday.

 

Kepler? Probably could, but has more value as an elite defensive outfielder, and I'm not sure how I feel about Cave as an everyday player.

 

Garver? Probably makes the most sense, his bat is roughly equal to Cron/Austin, but it sure looks like he's worked hard to become a legit MLB catcher, and he obviously has more value there.

 

I don't think there are any 1B prospects ready to come up today.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Why is Austin fungible and Cron isn't?

 

My whole point is that I think they chose the wrong one.

So when you say, "yeah occasionally you'll get burned by releasing the wrong one", that's kinda where I'm at.

I think Austin can easily match anything Cron can do, except he comes with the flexibility of 6 years and less money.

Sure, as Mike suggests, another prospect may come along that can replace him. But there isn't one here yet, and I'd rather wait until there is before I throw away that flexibility. Bird in hand/Bush, etc.

Can Austin hit as well as Cron? Sure.

 

Will Austin hit as well as Cron? Probably not.

 

And that’s the difference right there. Austin is a good reclamation project if you’re rebuilding. I’m tired of watching the Twins rebuild using marginal non-prospects. Go find actual MLB players and sign them, please.

 

If the Twins were coming off a 72 win season, I’d totally be down with seeing what Austin can do. But they should be aiming for the division this season and guys like Austin can hamstring that goal if he comes at the expense of more established players and then falls on his face.

[Mr. Brooks]

Can Austin hit as well as Cron? Sure.

 

Will Austin hit as well as Cron? Probably not.

 

And that’s the difference right there. Austin is a good reclamation project if you’re rebuilding. I’m tired of watching the Twins rebuild using marginal non-prospects. Go find actual MLB players and sign them, please.

 

If the Twins were coming off a 72 win season, I’d totally be down with seeing what Austin can do. But they should be aiming for the division this season and guys like Austin can hamstring that goal if he comes at the expense of more established players and then falls on his face.

They have nearly identical career OPS, even though Cron has had much more developmental time at the MLB level.

I don't understand why you think Cron is more likely to hit better this year. I'd argue the opposite.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I also don't like how our roster dynamic changes should Cron get hurt today.
Who becomes our everyday 1B?

Astudillo? We don't know if he can play 1B, and even if he can, he's much more valuable at C and 3B.
Gonzalez? I'd rather him be the super sub that he was signed to be. Not to mention his bat likely doesn't come close to playing 1B everyday.

Kepler? Probably could, but has more value as an elite defensive outfielder, and I'm not sure how I feel about Cave as an everyday player.

Garver? Probably makes the most sense, his bat is roughly equal to Cron/Austin, but it sure looks like he's worked hard to become a legit MLB catcher, and he obviously has more value there.

I don't think there are any 1B prospects ready to come up today.

 

Well, that's not the same as worrying about Cron vs Austin.......since you'd have the same worry if they kept Austin, and he got hurt......

[Mr. Brooks]

Well, that's not the same as worrying about Cron vs Austin.......since you'd have the same worry if they kept Austin, and he got hurt......

I know it's not.

I dislike both decisions. Signing Cron to begin with, and now dumping Austin.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They have nearly identical career OPS, even though Cron has had much more developmental time at the MLB level.
I don't understand why you think Cron is more likely to hit better this year. I'd argue the opposite.

Aw man, you know all OPSes are not created equally.

 

Cron has a career OPS+ 10 points higher than Austin (and there was no learning curve, he basically entered the league that way).

 

wRC+ tells virtually the same story, with Cron having a nine point lead in that stat.

 

Maybe even more important than those stats is just how easy it is to expose Austin in a starting role. His career L/R split is a whopping 294 points of OPS (!!!!!!)... to the weak side of the platoon (!!!!!). Past the fifth inning, a manager would have to be concussed to ever let that guy see a lefty, which makes him a .659 OPS first baseman in the most important half of the game.

 

The dude is an opposing manager's wet dream in late innings.

 

On the other hand, Cron's L/R career split is... 005... basically invisible...

 

So not only is Cron the better hitter, he's a guy opposing managers can't exploit to the point of uselessness by basically throwing a dart at his bullpen roster.

 

Austin is a good flyer on a rebuilding team or a bench guy for a team that (inexplicably) needs a defensively challenged LHP masher. But for a team with postseason aspirations, he's not the type of guy you can afford to wait out in hopes he figures out same-side pitching, particularly in the American League, where rosters are already crunched due to the existence of the DH.

[Mr. Brooks]

Aw man, you know all OPSes are not created equally.

 

Cron has a career OPS+ 10 points higher than Austin (and there was no learning curve, he basically entered the league that way).

 

wRC+ tells virtually the same story, with Cron having a nine point lead in that stat.

 

Maybe even more important than those stats is just how easy it is to expose Austin in a starting role. His career L/R split is a whopping 294 points of OPS (!!!!!!)... to the weak side of the platoon (!!!!!). Past the fifth inning, a manager would have to be concussed to ever let that guy see a lefty, which makes him a .659 OPS first baseman in the most important half of the game.

 

The dude is an opposing manager's wet dream in late innings.

 

On the other hand, Cron's L/R career split is... 005... basically invisible...

 

So not only is Cron the better hitter, he's a guy opposing managers can't exploit to the point of uselessness by basically throwing a dart at his bullpen roster.

What did Kepler's platoon splits look like through 200 PA's vs. lefties?

 

How many exclamation points should I have used if I wanted to anoint Kepler as a platoon only player then?

[jorgenswest]

Trading five years of Austin for one year of Cron is bad management.

Pretty sure it is two years of control for Cron.

 

I don’t care about that though. I care about which guy helps most in 2019. I think Cron is the better all around hitter and defender this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

What did Kepler's platoon splits look like through 200 PA's vs. lefties?

 

How many exclamation points should I have used if I wanted to anoint Kepler as a platoon only player then?

Dude, come on. A LH and RH platoon aren’t even close to the same thing.

 

But even if you want to ignore that (really important) fact, Kepler’s split is just 172 points.

 

Also, Max can play center field.

[Mr. Brooks]

Dude, come on. A LH and RH platoon aren’t even close to the same thing.

 

But even if you want to ignore that (really important) fact, Kepler’s split is just 172 points.

 

Also, Max can play center field.

My point isn't which side of the platoon they are on, or what position they play.

My point is cementing someone as a platoon hitter because of a 200 plate appearance is nonsense. That small of a sample size hardly goes past statistical noise, let alone considering that improvement can occur.

 

And I didn't ask what Kepler's platoon split is now, after he improved against lefties, I asked what it was after his first 200 PA's, when he was awful against lefties.

[yarnivek1972]

It’s very unusual for a pitcher to throw righty and hit lefty. They are usually encouraged to not do that to protect the pitching arm.

[Riverbrian]

 

Wrong! Austin gets a start in LF against a lefty. Belt benched, and Buster Posey plays first base. So, they'd rather have Austin in the OF than Buster Posey. (Austin was removed for a left-handed pinch-hitter later in the game.)

 

The Giants Outfield isn't good so it doesn't say a ton to see Austin play in LF for that particular group of players. 

 

However... This is what I'll be watching regardless... If Austin can play in the OF and actually center himself under fly balls and squeeze. This would change the discussion and raise my deepest concern about any front office. 

 

I've asked for competition for all positions... Signing Cron provided that competition for Austin at 1B and this is what I want and what I will continue to want until the end of time. Although... Austin was cut before he got a real chance to beat Cron out of the position that Cron was handed.  Regardless... I'm Ok with this... I want my front office to sign extra talent. However... If Austin can actually play OF... he becomes instantly more valuable than Cron in my opinion. 

 

If Austin can't play OF and the Giants just threw him out there and hoped the ball wouldn't be hit to left... Then Cron and Austin are just a couple of dime a dozen power hitting first basemen who you can find on the waiver wire and I won't lose much sleep. 

 

If Austin can play OF and if Austin hits... the Twins will have blown it. 

[Riverbrian]

https://www.sfexaminer.com/sports/giants-give-an-early-start-to-tyler-austin-left-field-experiment/

 

Bochy looks like he is going to give it a shot. 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

My point isn't which side of the platoon they are on, or what position they play.
My point is cementing someone as a platoon hitter because of a 200 plate appearance is nonsense. That small of a sample size hardly goes past statistical noise, let alone considering that improvement can occur.

And I didn't ask what Kepler's platoon split is now, after he improved against lefties, I asked what it was after his first 200 PA's, when he was awful against lefties.

Well, you should care which side of the platoon they play on.

Lefties often struggle against LHP. Look at Morneau. His career split was about 200 OPS points. 

 

But you can't do that in reverse. Literally every bullpen has a handful of RHP out there to get a guy out.

Which is why Tyler Austin's likely ceiling is Danny Valencia without the ability to play third base.

 

Maybe Austin figures it out. At this point, it's unlikely he figures it out enough to matter for a contending team.

 

Which brings us back to Cron. Contending teams shouldn't take flyers on weak side corner platoon players. They should go with the established player.

[Mr. Brooks]

Well, you should care which side of the platoon they play on.

 

Lefties often struggle against LHP. Look at Morneau. His career split was about 200 OPS points.

 

But you can't do that in reverse. Literally every bullpen has a handful of RHP out there to get a guy out.

 

Which is why Tyler Austin's likely ceiling is Danny Valencia without the ability to play third base.

 

Maybe Austin figures it out. At this point, it's unlikely he figures it out enough to matter for a contending team.

 

Which brings us back to Cron. Contending teams shouldn't take flyers on weak side corner platoon players. They should go with the established player.

I didn't say I don't care. I said that it wasn't my point.

 

My point is that with a sample size of 200 PA, we don't even know for sure that he actually will have a platoon split, let alone that he can't improve it if he does.

[killertwinfan]

 

We gave up nothing, we received nothing in return. Seems like a fair trade to me.

Your definition of nothing seems a little broad.  He is going to play for the Giants at baseball's highest level, isn't that something.  Doesn't look like Ziegler will at this point, especially without expanded rosters.  

[Riverbrian]

 

Well, you should care which side of the platoon they play on.

Lefties often struggle against LHP. Look at Morneau. His career split was about 200 OPS points. 

 

But you can't do that in reverse. Literally every bullpen has a handful of RHP out there to get a guy out.

Which is why Tyler Austin's likely ceiling is Danny Valencia without the ability to play third base.

 

Maybe Austin figures it out. At this point, it's unlikely he figures it out enough to matter for a contending team.

 

Which brings us back to Cron. Contending teams shouldn't take flyers on weak side corner platoon players. They should go with the established player.

 

414 Scattered AB's while burning up three options is a small sample size. The Giants may decide to platoon but that would be questionable because there isn't enough data to make that determination yet. 

 

The difference between Kepler and Austin is this... Kepler got to try again.

 

Austin should finally get a chance to prove or not prove himself with the Giants... It's up to him now. He earns a job or he joins the run of the mill crew. It's up to him. 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

The difference between Kepler and Austin is this... Kepler got to try again.

I’m sorry but UGH.

 

Kepler got to try again because he didn’t suck in the field and can actually play an up the middle position.

 

Everyone here needs to hit the pause button and take a second to remember that hitters also have to take the field. There’s a reason why teams give good defenders five chances to succeed and marginal corner defenders one or two chances at most.

[Mike Sixel]

I’m sorry but UGH.

 

Kepler got to try again because he didn’t suck in the field and can actually play an up the middle position.

 

Everyone here needs to hit the pause button and take a second to remember that hitters also have to take the field. There’s a reason why teams give good defenders five chances to succeed and marginal corner defenders one or two chances at most.

Not to mention but context matters. The twins weren't real contenders when Kepler came up. Also, scouting and projections matter. Kepler wins in both of those over Austin.... By a huge margin.