Article: Seth's Preseason Top 20 Minnesota Twins Position Player Prospects

[2wins87]

 

I'm comfortable with my rankings, but I did know that Rortvedt would come up. 

 

Through some off-the-record conversations, I'm told that Rortvedt has really struggled with the pitch-framing portion of catching. For me, he's fantastic throwing and blocking and he's a really good athlete behind the plate. I also think that he works as well with pitchers as anyone. I also know that he has worked really hard on the framing, so I think that it's likely he will put up better framing numbers this year. 

 

Jeffers, on the other hand, scores very well in the pitch framing numbers. Add that to his plus-bat potential, including power, and that makes for a really exciting prospect. 

 

And as for Blankenhorn, I do believe in his athleticism and talent, and I think that he will hit. I may be totally wrong, but he's immensely talented and does have huge power potential and really good speed. I may be wrong. I mean, obviously a lot of these 20 aren't going to become MLB stars, but I'll still "buy" on Blankenhorn... while at the same time noting that I've previously had him as a Top 8-10 Twins prospect and now I have him as the #15 position player prospect (which theoretically probably puts him around #30 overall prospect). So it's certainly a big year for him.

 

 

I'm not someone who feels strongly on Rortvedt one way or another, but this does bring up an interesting question.

How much of a consideration should minor league framing be?

And when should it start to be important?

 

I'm pretty curious to see how Garver's numbers look this year after a month or two.

He was worth -10 runs last year according to Fangraphs' new numbers, but we've heard several times that framing was a specific offseason focus for him.

If he's average or better this year then I think we'd have to give pretty heavy consideration to the hypothesis that all it really takes to be a good framer is the willingness to work on it and amount of effort put into it (there already is evidence that as teams have become more aware of framing everyone has clustered closer to the average).

Basically it seems like the approach is mostly just to lower the stance and get a bunch of better calls on low strikes.

Maybe it won't be that simple, but we'll have to see.

It seems possible that it might be the kind of thing that players don't really need to focus on until AA or AAA once they have all the fundamentals down, then they put in a some time with their catching coaches and voila, average mlb framer.

[jmlease1]

 

I'm comfortable with my rankings, but I did know that Rortvedt would come up. 

 

Through some off-the-record conversations, I'm told that Rortvedt has really struggled with the pitch-framing portion of catching. For me, he's fantastic throwing and blocking and he's a really good athlete behind the plate. I also think that he works as well with pitchers as anyone. I also know that he has worked really hard on the framing, so I think that it's likely he will put up better framing numbers this year. 

 

Jeffers, on the other hand, scores very well in the pitch framing numbers. Add that to his plus-bat potential, including power, and that makes for a really exciting prospect. 

 

And as for Blankenhorn, I do believe in his athleticism and talent, and I think that he will hit. I may be totally wrong, but he's immensely talented and does have huge power potential and really good speed. I may be wrong. I mean, obviously a lot of these 20 aren't going to become MLB stars, but I'll still "buy" on Blankenhorn... while at the same time noting that I've previously had him as a Top 8-10 Twins prospect and now I have him as the #15 position player prospect (which theoretically probably puts him around #30 overall prospect). So it's certainly a big year for him.

 

I'm not going to claim that Rortvedt should rank above Jeffers, but it feels like based on age and level performance they're not all that far apart as prospects, albeit for some differing reasons. Beyond that, developing quality catchers that can actually use the bat effectively sure seems to be a challenge for MLB, so if Rortvedt really has taken a leap forward with his hitting there's a ton of value there. but I freely admit I'm on Team Rortvedt.

 

I'm concerned about Blankenhorn. It's hard not to think of his season last year as a disappointment; Arraez has clearly passed him at this point and we simply didn't see much of that power potential in Ft. Myers. Maybe he and Lewin Diaz just hit that FSL wall we've come to expect and Alex Kirilloff is an even bigger outlier?

 

Strong "next wave" of talent clustered at Ft. Myers right now, which is a place where I feel like we really start to winnow out who are actually going to be real prospects vs JAGs. Should be an interesting season.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Now I am shocked that you didn't include Rortvedt in your Top 20 position players.

 

Goal #1 accomplished for today... Now I'm going to have some lunch. Ha!!

 

OK, shocking you wasn't really the goal. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'm not someone who feels strongly on Rortvedt one way or another, but this does bring up an interesting question.

How much of a consideration should minor league framing be?

And when should it start to be important?

 

I'm pretty curious to see how Garver's numbers look this year after a month or two.

He was worth -10 runs last year according to Fangraphs' new numbers, but we've heard several times that framing was a specific offseason focus for him.

If he's average or better this year then I think we'd have to give pretty heavy consideration to the hypothesis that all it really takes to be a good framer is the willingness to work on it and amount of effort put into it (there already is evidence that as teams have become more aware of framing everyone has clustered closer to the average).

Basically it seems like the approach is mostly just to lower the stance and get a bunch of better calls on low strikes.

Maybe it won't be that simple, but we'll have to see.

It seems possible that it might be the kind of thing that players don't really need to focus on until AA or AAA once they have all the fundamentals down, then they put in a some time with their catching coaches and voila, average mlb framer.

 

I don't know how muchh attention and focus it should get as far as prospect rankings. I know it gets a ton of attention in the organization and the work Tanner Swanson is doing with Twins catchers is really incredible.

 

We also know that catchers get paid and stick around in the big leagues because of those numbers. And Garver told us this spring that he knew his career wouldn't' be long if he didn't make those changes and improve those numbers.

 

So I do think it should be a factor... but even for catchers, it's one factor. Hitting is another. And I'm sure there are several. 

 

And again, the work and drills and focus that pitch receiving is receiving now from Swanson and everyone else is great because hopefully by year's end, all of these guys will continue to improve. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'm not going to claim that Rortvedt should rank above Jeffers, but it feels like based on age and level performance they're not all that far apart as prospects, albeit for some differing reasons. Beyond that, developing quality catchers that can actually use the bat effectively sure seems to be a challenge for MLB, so if Rortvedt really has taken a leap forward with his hitting there's a ton of value there. but I freely admit I'm on Team Rortvedt.

 

I'm concerned about Blankenhorn. It's hard not to think of his season last year as a disappointment; Arraez has clearly passed him at this point and we simply didn't see much of that power potential in Ft. Myers. Maybe he and Lewin Diaz just hit that FSL wall we've come to expect and Alex Kirilloff is an even bigger outlier?

 

Strong "next wave" of talent clustered at Ft. Myers right now, which is a place where I feel like we really start to winnow out who are actually going to be real prospects vs JAGs. Should be an interesting season.

 

I'm a big fan of Rortvedt, and obviously so are the Twins. And I do think that he can take another step forward this year. He is very strong. He's a good athlete, even beyond the "for a catcher" preposition that always needs to be added. He's got the arm and all those other things I mentioned. I am curious how the offense develops in 2019. If asked right now,, I would say that Rortvedt will play in the big leagues. I think there's a very good chance of that... and again, that speaks very highly to the Twins depth.

 

I'm frequently told that FSL numbers can be very misleading ,especially for guys that are power hitters and do get good launch. It can suppress numbers. Diaz was hurt last year and struggled but man has he put in the work. And I've said probably enough on Blankenhorn. Maybe High-A will be it, but I'm willing to bet on them moving up yet. 

 

And I would say that Kirilloff is absolutely an outlier in the same way that Sano was an outlier in his (first stop in the) Florida State days. Kirilloff is special. All of his teammates know that. But notice that Lewis hit homers with as much frequency as Kirilloff in his (about 20 games less) in Ft. Myers last season. 

[clutterheart]

Your low ranking of Maciel is a bit of an outier compared to national prospect minds.

 

Any reason why you like him less than most?

[USNMCPO]

What I see is a farm system with the talent to not only provide a solid future for the Twins by itself, but also with the talent to acquire MLB players to improve the current roster as needed. What a change from the past! Thanks Seth. Great insight as always.

[dbminn]

 

What I see is a farm system with the talent to not only provide a solid future for the Twins by itself, but also with the talent to acquire MLB players to improve the current roster as needed. What a change from the past! Thanks Seth. Great insight as always.

 

Agreed! A lot of talented players acquired since the beginning of 2016.

 

Will there be a serious 40-man roster crunch coming up in the future? I hope someone at TD will put up a list of Rule V eligibility for 2020 and 2021 at some point (hint).

[Thrylos]

I'd rank Raley higher than Wade and only lower than Larnach, Kiriloff, and Rooker (these 3 mentioned in alpha and not any other order btw.)   He has 5 tools vs 3 (no arm and power) for Wade, is a year younger, and had very similar performance at the same stop last season.  Wade's hit and run tool is better, but Raley's other 3 tools are much better.  If I were to think of a Raley comparable, it would be one of my favorite prospects who just did not make it for whatever reasons, Joe Benson...

[Mr. Brooks]

I'd rank Raley higher than Wade and only lower than Larnach, Kiriloff, and Rooker (these 3 mentioned in alpha and not any other order btw.) He has 5 tools vs 3 (no arm and power) for Wade, is a year younger, and had very similar performance at the same stop last season. Wade's hit and run tool is better, but Raley's other 3 tools are much better. If I were to think of a Raley comparable, it would be one of my favorite prospects who just did not make it for whatever reasons, Joe Benson...

MLB Pipeline has a 50 grade for Wade's arm, compared to a 45 grade for Raley's hit tool.

So if Raley has 5 tools, then Wade has 4.

[BJames]

Luke Raley, I get that some of these guys have more hype and guys at Rookie and low A seem like can't miss.  BUT, Raley looks like can't miss to me.  Good Speed, Good Power, Good AVG.  #12 at the Highest.   Rortvedt, I'm not a big fan 20-25 seem good to me.

[nater79a]

Not on this particular list.....but how do we pronounce Zander Wiel's last name?  Is it like "wheel" or "while"?

 

Heard it both ways.   Dick and Bert and Dazzle were all over the map on this during spring training.

[jkcarew]

 

Man, the Twins must really, really like Helman. I mean, I fully understand Larnach and Jeffers jumping straight to Ft. Myers, but Helman isn't necessarily the type of player that you bump up that fast. But he's talented. Again, not sure he has any plus tools but he is average or better at a lot of things. Fields well. Plays middle infield. Line drives. Good approach. Averagish speed. He's impressive to watch 

I look at it differently. Helman is a year older than Larnach and Jeffers...played the extra year of college ball (in a top program/conference), which also explains maybe droping a few rounds compared to the juniors. To me, if they like him at ALL they should be getting him to Fort Myers sooner rather than later. Either way, it's encouraging.

 

The absence that has me a bit surprised is Rortvedt. The inclusion that has me surprised is Willie Joe Garry. Did I miss something, or is he kind of coming out of nowhere in your rankings? A 9th round draft pick (article says 10th, btw) that hasn't registered anything positive in an official league as of yet. My guess is you're hearing things regarding Garry from people in the organization? 

[Mr. Brooks]

Not on this particular list.....but how do we pronounce Zander Wiel's last name? Is it like "wheel" or "while"?

 

Heard it both ways. Dick and Bert and Dazzle were all over the map on this during spring training.

Wheel.

[goulik]

I’m also on the Rortvedt band wagon. I loved him as a draft pick and I loved what I saw when I went to watch the Kernels. While there, I also heard lots of good things about him from the long time Kernels fans I sat near. They saw intangibles that they believed made their pitchers better. They credited him with being a good game caller and felt pitchers respected him behind the dish. I think he should be higher on this list.

 

I would love to hear SD Buhrs opinion on this...

Edited April 4, 2019 by goulik

[rdehring]

 

Agreed! A lot of talented players acquired since the beginning of 2016.

 

Will there be a serious 40-man roster crunch coming up in the future? I hope someone at TD will put up a list of Rule V eligibility for 2020 and 2021 at some point (hint).

I was thinking this exact thing as I read this earlier today.  Gotta believe these young studs in the FO will have a handle on this and will move a few of those who could be at risk this summer.  Whether its part of a deal to bring in help for 2019 or a younger prospect further away from that Rule 5 day or reckoning.

[rdehring]

 

I'd rank Raley higher than Wade and only lower than Larnach, Kiriloff, and Rooker (these 3 mentioned in alpha and not any other order btw.)   He has 5 tools vs 3 (no arm and power) for Wade, is a year younger, and had very similar performance at the same stop last season.  Wade's hit and run tool is better, but Raley's other 3 tools are much better.  If I were to think of a Raley comparable, it would be one of my favorite prospects who just did not make it for whatever reasons, Joe Benson...

Does L come before K, alphabetically?  I wish I knew how to put one of those smiley faces here!!!!

[DocBauer]

No expert, but a hunch on Raley that I think a lot of us seem to have

I think we're talking about him a lot more this time next year, if not mid season.

 

Understand the reasons given, and development that still needs to take place, but not sure I could keep Rortvedt off this list.

 

Not trying to deliberately be a "cup runneth over" fan but there are quite a few guys not on this list that are still pretty decent prospects with potential.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Your low ranking of Maciel is a bit of an outier compared to national prospect minds.

 

Any reason why you like him less than most?

 

I don't know. He's not a big guy, and I didn't see him play a lot. Saw him take a lot of BP. He's good, as shown in my description of him. 

[SF Twins Fan]

Does anyone know how to get to the MiLB website that was basically a home base for all of the affiliates for the Twins?  In past years through MiLB.com I believe there was a way to get to their affiliates website that on the right side had a link to all of their teams.  I can't find it anymore.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Agreed! A lot of talented players acquired since the beginning of 2016.

 

Will there be a serious 40-man roster crunch coming up in the future? I hope someone at TD will put up a list of Rule V eligibility for 2020 and 2021 at some point (hint).

 

We'll certainly have articles on Rule 5 eligibles. There are a lot... 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Not on this particular list.....but how do we pronounce Zander Wiel's last name?  Is it like "wheel" or "while"?

 

Heard it both ways.   Dick and Bert and Dazzle were all over the map on this during spring training.

 

Zander Weil (Wheel)... 

[nicksaviking]

 

I’m also on the Rortvedt band wagon. I loved him as a draft pick and I loved what I saw when I went to watch the Kernels. While there, I also heard lots of good things about him from the long time Kernels fans I sat near. They saw intangibles that they believed made their pitchers better. They credited him with being a good game caller and felt pitchers respected him behind the dish. I think he should be higher on this list.

I would love to hear SD Buhrs opinion on this...

 

I'm not very high on glove only (mostly) catchers in the minors. Those guys tend to only end up as nomads in the majors, never sticking with a team overly long.

 

He'll get me interested if he starts OPSing +.800. And I'm not at all suggesting he can't do that. Just that there seems to be little indication he's going to have much of a bat.

[Steve Lein]

 

Does anyone know how to get to the MiLB website that was basically a home base for all of the affiliates for the Twins?  In past years through MiLB.com I believe there was a way to get to their affiliates website that on the right side had a link to all of their teams.  I can't find it anymore.

 

They definitely switched it up a bit this year, but here's a few links:

 

Scoreboard:  https://www.milb.com/scores/twins/

 

All affiliate links: https://www.milb.com/team/affiliations

 

MLB Affiliate news: https://www.milb.com/fans/affiliate-news

 

Otherwise it seems they may have gotten rid of the page you're thinking, which like you, I'm going to miss if so.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I look at it differently. Helman is a year older than Larnach and Jeffers...played the extra year of college ball (in a top program/conference), which also explains maybe droping a few rounds compared to the juniors. To me, if they like him at ALL they should be getting him to Fort Myers sooner rather than later. Either way, it's encouraging.

 

The absence that has me a bit surprised is Rortvedt. The inclusion that has me surprised is Willie Joe Garry. Did I miss something, or is he kind of coming out of nowhere in your rankings? A 9th round draft pick (article says 10th, btw) that hasn't registered anything positive in an official league as of yet. My guess is you're hearing things regarding Garry from people in the organization? 

 

Helman played two years of CC and then one year at Texas A&M. Larnach and Jeffers played 3 years of D1. 

 

Garry - I mean, this ranking is based almost solely on having now watched him play. Incredibly raw but he's so talented and he does look pretty natural. Maybe it's the sweet, left-handed swing. Maybe it's his frame. Maybe it was hearing that he was one of the first guys to get to the academy after the New Year. The speed. So much!!

 

Right now, he was impressive and this ranking is based on timing and now having seen him in person for a week. For me ,he's a guy that by the and of the year could fall out of a Top 100 ranking (if I did that), or he could jump into the Top 20. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I’m also on the Rortvedt band wagon. I loved him as a draft pick and I loved what I saw when I went to watch the Kernels. While there, I also heard lots of good things about him from the long time Kernels fans I sat near. They saw intangibles that they believed made their pitchers better. They credited him with being a good game caller and felt pitchers respected him behind the dish. I think he should be higher on this list.

I would love to hear SD Buhrs opinion on this...

 

I don't 'disagree with any of this... 

[SF Twins Fan]

 

They definitely switched it up a bit this year, but here's a few links:

 

Scoreboard:  https://www.milb.com/scores/twins/

 

All affiliate links: https://www.milb.com/team/affiliations

 

MLB Affiliate news: https://www.milb.com/fans/affiliate-news

 

Otherwise it seems they may have gotten rid of the page you're thinking, which like you, I'm going to miss if so.

 

 

Thanks for the information but this SUCKS!!! It was such a convenient page with everything centralized. 

[Steve Lein]

 

Thanks for the information but this SUCKS!!! It was such a convenient page with everything centralized. 

 

Agree 100%. And I can't think of a reason why they would take it away, either.

[IaFan1]

I just don't understand the high marks given Travis Blankenhorn.  We the fans keep hearing about his potential. But the stats don't bare any of that out. He's had 4 years in the organization and has yet to have a breakout season. He strikes out a ton. Doesn't hit for average, has a little-not a lot of pop and average speed. I hope this is the year that he puts it all together. But I don't see where he merits a #18 ranking. 

[ashbury]

 

They definitely switched it up a bit this year, but here's a few links:

 

Scoreboard:  https://www.milb.com/scores/twins/

 

All affiliate links: https://www.milb.com/team/affiliations

 

MLB Affiliate news: https://www.milb.com/fans/affiliate-news

 

Otherwise it seems they may have gotten rid of the page you're thinking, which like you, I'm going to miss if so.

I find this link useful for some purposes too:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/affiliate.cgi?id=MIN