Article: MIN 5, KC 4 (10 Innings): Cruz Steps Up

[Tom Froemming]

You don’t get many second chances in baseball, so you have to take advantage of those that come. Seconds after hitting what appeared to be an inning-ending groundout, Nelson Cruz delivered a go-ahead two-out RBI single in the 10th inning. He also had a big two-run double earlier in the game, stepping up on a night several of his teammates struggled.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)

Berrios: 7.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 68.6% strikes

 

Home Runs: None

Multi-Hit Games: Kepler (2-for-4, 2 BB), Polanco (2-for-5, 2B, BB), Cruz (2-for-5, 2B, BB), Cron (2-for-5, 2B)

 

WPA of 0.1 or higher: Cruz .605, Polanco .225, Parker .209, Hildenberger .114

WPA of -0.1 or lower: Schoop -.127, Gonzalez -.185, Rogers -.194

Download attachment: Win42.png

 

There was some controversy in the top of the 10th inning over the foul ball call, but in the end it appeared the correct call was made. That didn’t stop one of the Kaufman faithful from chanting “we want robots, we want robots” which I got a kick out of.

 

Nelson Cruz hit a line drive toward third base that landed just a few feet before the bag. The third base ump called it fair, which appeared to result in an inning-ending ground out, but the home plate ump called it foul.

 

Given a second chance, Cruz delivered an RBI single to score Willians Astudillo from second base. Speaking of second chances, Blake Parker got the job done in his second opportunity with the Twins, picking up the save.

 

Scoring Struggles

The Twins had a man at second and no outs in the sixth inning and did not score. They loaded the bases with no outs in the seventh and did not score. They also got their leadoff man on in the eighth, but somehow came away with zero runs in all three of those innings.

 

After all those offensive struggles from the Twins, this happened:

 

 

The Twins made it look like scoring was so hard, Adalberto Mondesi made it look so easy. Not Byron Buxton’s best moment there, by the way. He was finished out that inning but did not return for the ninth due to an apparent back injury. Buxton was to be re-evaluated after the game as a precaution. That inside-the-park home run ended Taylor Rogers’ scoreless inning streak at 28 2/3 innings.

 

Strikeout Surge Ends

The Royals are nowhere near as successful as they were during their recent World Series runs, but some of the same formulas remain. The speed is still there, and they still field a lineup that excels at putting the ball in play. Jose Berrios didn’t get his first strikeout until the fifth inning and only racked up four Ks altogether, ending the insane strikeout binge the staff had been on.

 

While he wasn’t as overpowering, Berrios did a nice job of throwing strikes and avoided the one thing you really can’t afford to do against these Royals: Issue walks. It took him only 86 pitches to complete seven innings and once again relied on a heavy dose of offspeed stuff, throwing 32 curveballs and 10 changeups.

 

A couple of the Twins, on the other hand, had all sorts of trouble making contact. Both Marwin Gonzalez and Buxton struck out three times. Gonzalez went down swinging in both of those crushing sixth and seventh innings.

 

The Rosie Run

There are all sorts of fun new advanced metrics and it can seem like we measure everything in modern baseball … because we do. You can learn about them, the same way you can learn to bet, but I want to focus on a particular one with which you may not be familiar.

 

There’s a stat called UBR, Ultimate Baserunning, which can be found on FanGraphs. It attempts to pin a value on a player’s contributions on the basepaths outside of just what they do in terms of stolen base attempts.

 

Eddie Rosario established a knack for picking up extra bases his rookie year, ranking seventh in all of baseball in UBR. He was in the top 25 in 2016 but then some of his risks started to backfire in 2017 and he fell outside the top 100 in that metric.

 

Rosario really seemed to adjust nicely, developing a better feel for when to go for it and when to ease up. He ended up with the best UBR rating of his career, which was also fifth in all of baseball.

 

Tonight, that skill came in incredibly handy. Rosario scored the Twins’ first run of the night, coming all the way from first base on a broken-bat single to left-center field.

 

 

After opening the season 0-for-14, Rosario also broke through with a go-ahead RBI single in the top of the ninth inning. He advanced to second on a ball in the dirt in a bang-bang play at the bag, because of course he did.

 

Cron’s Defense

When the Twins signed Nelson Cruz it meant C.J. Cron was going to have to get the lion’s share of his playing time at first base. While that is his natural position, Cron spent the majority of his breakout 2018 season as Tampa Bay’s designated hitter.

 

While the defensive metrics were very positive, Cron ranked fourth among first basemen in defensive runs saved, Twins fans have come to expect excellent play from the position. From Joe Mauer to Justin Morneau to Doug Mientkiewicz, the Twins have had a stretch of sterling scoopers over there.

 

Cron’s made a solid first impression, though there isn’t much defense going on when your pitchers strike out 13 batters a game, but he really shined tonight. Cron made several nice scoops, some to secure outs, others to keep the ball in front of him and prevent the speedy Royals from gaining extra bases.

 

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Download attachment: Bullpen42.png

 

Next Three Games

Wed at KC, 12:15 pm CT

Fri at PHI, 6:05 pm CT

Sat at PHI, 1:05 pm CT

 

Last Game

MIN 9, CLE 3: Twins Take Series Behind Pineda, Tortuga

 

More From Twins Daily

2019 Rochester Red Wings Preliminary Roster

2019 Pensacola Blue Wahoos Preliminary Roster

2019 Fort Myers Miracle Preliminary Roster

 

Click here to view the article

[TheLeviathan]

I'm glad they won because not scoring in the 7th was hard to watch.

 

What the hell was that route by Buxton?  That was a hard, but not impossible catch.  

[rghrbek]

I thought they should have stolen Buck when he was on base in the middle inning.  Turned out not to hurt us, but he's almost automatic.

Agreed he took a weird route in the 8th.  

 

Not the most impressive win, but a win is a win.  Assuming Garver gets the plate tomorrow.

[USAFChief]

Cruz is such a massive upgrade in the middle of the order. Many people these days pooh pooh RBI.

 

Not me. They win ballgames, and he's good at em.

[Channing1964]

These are the kinds of games we would have found a way to lose last year.

[jimbo92107]

Astudillo gets a clutch hit and scores the winning run in the 10th. El Cherubo continues to impress and entertain. This is a team where a lot of players step up at key moments. I really like the look of this squad overall. Very selfless, smart baseball. 

[wallyrichards]

 

I'm glad they won because not scoring in the 7th was hard to watch.

 

What the hell was that route by Buxton?  That was a hard, but not impossible catch.  

 

It looked like he didn't try to catch the ball. He ran full blast into the fence. The kid takes one step forward and then 2 steps back. He plays the ball off the fence and we probably get out of the inning and win the game. 

 

[wallyrichards]

Nice to see Parker come in and pitch a scoreless 10th inning . I was a little nervous but he made some really nice pitches to save the game. Good fast ball and a better split finger/change up. Nice pitching performance by the starter and relievers. 

[Jacksson]

Lucky Win.

Covered a number of missteps by the rookie manager.

I realize he is a first time manager, but didn't he ever WATCH a game

and see how other Managers manage?

Wasted single to lead off the 1st. No bunt. No steal.

And what's with the first 3 batters of the game together only seeing 4 pitches?

Gonzalez and Schoop fail to deliver in the clutch in the 4th.

Polanco and Rosario fail to deliver with a runner on 2B in the 5th.

6th inning = runner on 2B, ZERO outs, score is 3-2 Twins.

No sacrifice to advance the runner to 3B to set up the sacrifice fly.

Gonzalez, Schoop and Buxton all choke.

7th inning = runners at 1B & 2B, ZERO outs, Tie score 3-3.

Cruz walks to load the bases... Fly ball = 1 run, Single = 2runs.

Rosario, Cron and Gonzalez proceed to choke.

8th inning = Schoop on 1B, ZERO outs. Tie score 3-3.

No sacrifice. No attempt to steal.

PH Astudillo, looks at one pitch before flying out to CF with the second.

Buxton Whiffs looking.

Kepler fouls out to SS on the second pitch he sees.

9th inning = Polanco on 2B. Zero Outs. Twins down 4-3.

No sacrifice. No attempt to steal.

Cruz hits a fastball to RF for a flyball out.

Cron whiffs on a ball in the dirt on a Full Count.

Schoop, with runners on the corners, hits the first pitch he sees into a force out on a nasty pitch down and away.

10th inning = Astudillo on 1B, ZERO outs, Score tied 4-4

No sacrifice. No successful attempt to steal.

Cave hits the 1st pitch he sees, (a change-up) on the fly to LF ???

With the count 1-2, Kepler whiffs on a change-up in the dirt.

Cruz comes through... This Time.

With runners on the corners, 2 outs and a 1 run lead, Rosario flys to CF.

Team needs some remedial hitting.

Batting coach needs to be concerned with batters, not watching the game.

Manager needs to learn to manage.

Anybody can win a game when it is left up to luck.

[Aerodeliria]

I agree about the Buxton wall-crash. What was worse though was subsequently missing the cut-off and eliminating any chance of making a play at the plate.

[h2oface]

I like wins, no matter how they come.

 

Buxton just needs to get smart and relax. That catch attempt and throw were just horrible. Senseless. Hard to understand. Foolish. His brain needs to slow down. That whole play was disgusting, including a 93 mph no movement first pitch fastball right down the middle by Rodgers. Yuk.

[Aerodeliria]

 

These are the kinds of games we would have found a way to lose last year.

 

Truth!

[Aerodeliria]

It really is great to have Cruz in that number three slot. That is why it is so critical for Polanco and Kepler to get on base; then, they have to pitch to Cruz. He's going to get a lot of good swings if there are men on base.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Manager needs to learn to manage.
Anybody can win a game when it is left up to luck.

Players need to execute. Every one of those scenarios you went through ended poorly because a player failed to execute. As we saw tonight, you can get guys to second, or even third, with no outs (let alone one) and still not score any runs. That's not on the manager.

 

Don't hold your breath over bunting or stealing bases. This team doesn't really have the personnel to small ball, and every indication from his past would indicate Rocco's not going to be that kind of manager. This team is built to pound the baseball. When they're not hitting any homer runs we're probably going to see some frustrating nights like this one (though this was an extreme example). Not ideal, you'd rather have a bunch of well-rounded hitters, but this is the team they built.

[bighat]

An ugly win. But a win. Royals have to be kicking themselves.

 

I think the stuff like the 14 men LOB will work itself out, I'm not too concerned about that in the 4th game of the year. At least we had men on base (as opposed to getting 1-hit in the 2nd game of the year against Trevor Bauer, remember that travesty)?

 

What does concern me is Buxton striking out 3 times. This is the kind of game that can push his offense off the edge of the cliff into a deep dive. To be honest, I'm really hoping he can play today. He doesn't need to sit and dwell on his mistakes. I'm guessing Cave gets the nod in CF. Maybe Cave goes 2-4 and Buxton gets angry? Can't have Bux getting down on himself, whatever it takes to get his confidence back quickly.

[wabene]

On a bad night they still got four in regulation. It's frustrating when they put themselves in position for more but the lineup shores put pressure on the other team.

[Platoon]

Tom, is it simply because it's the home 9, or is there any substance to the impression that the Twins have more difficulty scoring a run in a bases loaded, none out situation than other teams. Where do they stand statically in that scenario over (under) other teams over the past years? As for Buxton. At this rate one of these days we will read he ran full speed into the side of the bus on the way to the park and is "day to day". That attempt tonight bordered on "for show" only!

[Han Joelo]

 

• I like that I don't feel like the season is ruined because Buxton got hurt (and struck out a few times.). 
• I like that I don't feel that way because Sano is out.
• I LOVE Astudillo.  He may well make the All-Star game if he keeps garnering the attention of national writers.  There he is again in the thick of things.  That is not luck.
• I like that every time the Royals scored, the Twins countered.
• I like the idea that Astudillo will be available to pinch hit for Castro in every close game this year.
• I like that Astudillo is going to get the start at third base today, at least according to Carnac
• I like bullet points.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Lucky Win.

Covered a number of missteps by the rookie manager.

I realize he is a first time manager, but didn't he ever WATCH a game

and see how other Managers manage?

Wasted single to lead off the 1st. No bunt. No steal.

And what's with the first 3 batters of the game together only seeing 4 pitches?

Gonzalez and Schoop fail to deliver in the clutch in the 4th.

Polanco and Rosario fail to deliver with a runner on 2B in the 5th.

6th inning = runner on 2B, ZERO outs, score is 3-2 Twins.

No sacrifice to advance the runner to 3B to set up the sacrifice fly.

Gonzalez, Schoop and Buxton all choke.

7th inning = runners at 1B & 2B, ZERO outs, Tie score 3-3.

Cruz walks to load the bases... Fly ball = 1 run, Single = 2runs.

Rosario, Cron and Gonzalez proceed to choke.

8th inning = Schoop on 1B, ZERO outs. Tie score 3-3.

No sacrifice. No attempt to steal.

PH Astudillo, looks at one pitch before flying out to CF with the second.

Buxton Whiffs looking.

Kepler fouls out to SS on the second pitch he sees.

9th inning = Polanco on 2B. Zero Outs. Twins down 4-3.

No sacrifice. No attempt to steal.

Cruz hits a fastball to RF for a flyball out.

Cron whiffs on a ball in the dirt on a Full Count.

Schoop, with runners on the corners, hits the first pitch he sees into a force out on a nasty pitch down and away.

10th inning = Astudillo on 1B, ZERO outs, Score tied 4-4

No sacrifice. No successful attempt to steal.

Cave hits the 1st pitch he sees, (a change-up) on the fly to LF ???

With the count 1-2, Kepler whiffs on a change-up in the dirt.

Cruz comes through... This Time.

With runners on the corners, 2 outs and a 1 run lead, Rosario flys to CF.

Team needs some remedial hitting.

Batting coach needs to be concerned with batters, not watching the game.

Manager needs to learn to manage.

Anybody can win a game when it is left up to luck.

You’re criticizing Baldelli for running his team like a modern baseball organization (mixed in with players’ lack of execution, which is hardly the fault of the manager).

 

Outside of a few specific instances where you’re playing for one run late, sacrifices are a losing strategy.

 

Especially in the first inning, which you just complained about. Yikes.

[Puckett34]

 

Lucky Win.
Covered a number of missteps by the rookie manager.
I realize he is a first time manager, but didn't he ever WATCH a game
and see how other Managers manage?
Wasted single to lead off the 1st. No bunt. No steal.
And what's with the first 3 batters of the game together only seeing 4 pitches?
Gonzalez and Schoop fail to deliver in the clutch in the 4th.
Polanco and Rosario fail to deliver with a runner on 2B in the 5th.
6th inning = runner on 2B, ZERO outs, score is 3-2 Twins.
No sacrifice to advance the runner to 3B to set up the sacrifice fly.
Gonzalez, Schoop and Buxton all choke.
7th inning = runners at 1B & 2B, ZERO outs, Tie score 3-3.
Cruz walks to load the bases... Fly ball = 1 run, Single = 2runs.
Rosario, Cron and Gonzalez proceed to choke.
8th inning = Schoop on 1B, ZERO outs. Tie score 3-3.
No sacrifice. No attempt to steal.
PH Astudillo, looks at one pitch before flying out to CF with the second.
Buxton Whiffs looking.
Kepler fouls out to SS on the second pitch he sees.
9th inning = Polanco on 2B. Zero Outs. Twins down 4-3.
No sacrifice. No attempt to steal.
Cruz hits a fastball to RF for a flyball out.
Cron whiffs on a ball in the dirt on a Full Count.
Schoop, with runners on the corners, hits the first pitch he sees into a force out on a nasty pitch down and away.
10th inning = Astudillo on 1B, ZERO outs, Score tied 4-4
No sacrifice. No successful attempt to steal.
Cave hits the 1st pitch he sees, (a change-up) on the fly to LF ???
With the count 1-2, Kepler whiffs on a change-up in the dirt.
Cruz comes through... This Time.
With runners on the corners, 2 outs and a 1 run lead, Rosario flys to CF.
Team needs some remedial hitting.
Batting coach needs to be concerned with batters, not watching the game.
Manager needs to learn to manage.
Anybody can win a game when it is left up to luck.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syV2LkGpQB0

[lukeduke1980]

Buxton seems to be getting back into the pattern where he's almost instantly at 0-2 counts.  Hopefully he gets a couple days off and comes back with an aggressive approach.

[mikelink45]

Impressions at this stage are difficult to sort out from over reactions, but never-the-less all fans have them and that includes me.  

My first take-aways of the season are:

• Cleveland and KC have horrible line-ups.  And I am not expecting great from the Tigers and White Sox.  But these are not the kind of lineups we have come to expect.  I am expecting 90+ wins from the Twins because their lineup seems so superior to the others in the division and it is not superb (think Boston, Astros, Yankees).
• Astudillo is worth a contract for his entertainment value.  I was listening on the radio and still smiled and anticipated when he came in the game.
• I wonder how Garver is feeling.  It is early and he will start again, tonight?, but it appears that Astudillo is the go to guy right now.  
• I am concerned about Buxton and his injury.  I hope it is minor and we move on, but we have seen this too often.  I am starting to think of Sano and Buxton as Johnson & Johnson (obscure reference to the maker of bandaids). 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Buxton seems to be getting back into the pattern where he's almost instantly at 0-2 counts.  Hopefully he gets a couple days off and comes back with an aggressive approach.

 

I too want him aggressive.  But he had an at-bat with a couple guys on base and aggressively chased a ball out of the zone on the first pitch....so I want him to be smart and aggressive.

 

He's stinging the ball right now, so I'm not worried yet about his approach.

[LimestoneBaggy]

I'm not sure I agree with the Buxton argument on that route. Mondesi hits the ball pretty much dead on to center, but his bat has a slight downward tilt (usually causing a bit of slice to left from a right hander). 

 

Off the bat, that ball is going to look like a rocket right at him (which is the most difficult ball to track/catch), and then as he takes his back route, it's going to start the bend toward right. Add that to the near certainty of a full speed slam into the wall.

 

That's a pretty hard ball to track (also, I didn't see if live, but where was the right fielder...shift to the line?).

[Richie the Rally Goat]

We're 4 games in, it's too early to draw conclusions. That said... so far, it's a fun team to watch.

 

Cruz and La Tortuga could be our Morneau and Mauer combo.

[Dman]

After they had the bases loaded with no outs and didn't score I determined that the baseball gods were against us and they were going to let the Royals win the opener.  We left a lot of guys in scoring position on base it was tough to watch that.  Some how some way they did just enough to get the win. 

 

Felt a little bit bad for KC as they thought they had escaped another jam only to lose the game.  Granted I think the umpires got the call right but it is a tough way to lose.

 

Cruz is the real deal.  I hope we can keep him healthy all year as he is a tough out.

 

Given how Marwin has been playing I would rather have Sano back at third right now.  Maybe it is time check out Adrianza at third and see what he can do.  It seems like Marwin has been swinging at a lot of ptiches out of the zone.

 

Very happy they got the win.  Hoping for another win today before they head to the red hot Phillies for three games.

[SF Twins Fan]

I have two concerns with Rocco as a manager. He seems to be pulling the starters very early so far this season. Berrios only threw 86 pitches last night so there was no reason to not let him at least start the 8th. Also, Rogers is going to be on the DL by June with the way Rocco is using him. This is exactly what happened last year with Molitor. He fell in love with one RP and used him until he was worn out.

 

PS I hate that baseball changed the DL to IL. It doesn’t roll off the tongue properly. It should either be the DL, so we can stop with this PC crap, or they IR.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Nice to see Parker come in and pitch a scoreless 10th inning . I was a little nervous but he made some really nice pitches to save the game. Good fast ball and a better split finger/change up. Nice pitching performance by the starter and relievers. 

Yes, I had to get off to bed so I didn't have much time to devote to the bullpen, but there was a lot to like.

 

Rogers having his scoreless inning streak broken in something that was really out of his hands was tough to see, but he only threw 11 pitches that first inning. I was glad to see him back out for a second inning of work, but you have to draw the line somewhere.

 

Then Trevor Hildenberger, who was so shaky last year, came into a huge spot and blew the only batter he faced away. Well, as much as you can blow someone away with 77 mph changeups. 

 

And, of course, it was great to see Parker get back out there and put that wild first outing behind him. He didn't look all that sharp to me, but he got the job done and that's all that matters at the end of the day.

 

All in all it was three innings from the pen in a tight game and the only run they gave up was that inside the parker, which was pretty fluky. 

 

 

Tom, is it simply because it's the home 9, or is there any substance to the impression that the Twins have more difficulty scoring a run in a bases loaded, none out situation than other teams. Where do they stand statically in that scenario over (under) other teams over the past years? 

That sounded like way too depressing of a stat to look up, lol

 

But, since 2015 the Twins actually rank 13th in batting average, 15th in on-base percentage and 14th in slugging in all situations with the bases loaded. And they have the eighth-most sac flies over that time.

 

I can't figure out how to get the data on what happens on all plays after they load the bases with no outs, but I can tell you that the first batter up in those situations has hit .260/.258/.403 in 97 PAs since 2015, if we break that down to rankings it's 25th/27th/24th and they also have the ninth-highest K% at 22.7 in those situations. 

 

So that's been the big problem, as it was again tonight with Marwin striking out with the bases juiced and no outs.

 

I will say that it's a new manager and four of the guys in last night's lineup are brand new, so I can't imagine why there would be any carryover from a concrete statistical standpoint from any of the previous seasons.

[RatherBeGolfing]

I was pleasantly surprised to see us pull that out last night because we were handed chance after chance after chance and didn't seem to want to reach out and take it.

 

Get the sweep today, I don't have a good feeling heading into Philly this weekend.

[Mr. Brooks]

Lucky Win.

Covered a number of missteps by the rookie manager.

I realize he is a first time manager, but didn't he ever WATCH a game

and see how other Managers manage?

Wasted single to lead off the 1st. No bunt. No steal.

And what's with the first 3 batters of the game together only seeing 4 pitches?

Gonzalez and Schoop fail to deliver in the clutch in the 4th.

Polanco and Rosario fail to deliver with a runner on 2B in the 5th.

6th inning = runner on 2B, ZERO outs, score is 3-2 Twins.

No sacrifice to advance the runner to 3B to set up the sacrifice fly.

Gonzalez, Schoop and Buxton all choke.

7th inning = runners at 1B & 2B, ZERO outs, Tie score 3-3.

Cruz walks to load the bases... Fly ball = 1 run, Single = 2runs.

Rosario, Cron and Gonzalez proceed to choke.

8th inning = Schoop on 1B, ZERO outs. Tie score 3-3.

No sacrifice. No attempt to steal.

PH Astudillo, looks at one pitch before flying out to CF with the second.

Buxton Whiffs looking.

Kepler fouls out to SS on the second pitch he sees.

9th inning = Polanco on 2B. Zero Outs. Twins down 4-3.

No sacrifice. No attempt to steal.

Cruz hits a fastball to RF for a flyball out.

Cron whiffs on a ball in the dirt on a Full Count.

Schoop, with runners on the corners, hits the first pitch he sees into a force out on a nasty pitch down and away.

10th inning = Astudillo on 1B, ZERO outs, Score tied 4-4

No sacrifice. No successful attempt to steal.

Cave hits the 1st pitch he sees, (a change-up) on the fly to LF ???

With the count 1-2, Kepler whiffs on a change-up in the dirt.

Cruz comes through... This Time.

With runners on the corners, 2 outs and a 1 run lead, Rosario flys to CF.

Team needs some remedial hitting.

Batting coach needs to be concerned with batters, not watching the game.

Manager needs to learn to manage.

Anybody can win a game when it is left up to luck.

You want the manager to bunt in the first inning?