Acuna Matata: Braves Give Ronald Acuna $100 Million

[Seth Stohs]

Reports this morning are indicating that the Atlanta Braves and Ronald Acuna have agreed to an 8 year deal guaranteeing him $100 million. There are also two options that could bring the deal to 10 years, $124 million. 

 

Most seem to think that this is just too low for Acuna and bad for him to sign it. However, it's also OK to say that he's taking $100 million (lifetime security) over an injury or a decline or anything else that could happen. 

 

What do you think? 

 

 

 

[Twinsbar107]

 

  On 4/2/2019 at 4:52 PM, Seth Stohs said:

Reports this morning are indicating that the Atlanta Braves and Ronald Acuna have agreed to an 8 year deal guaranteeing him $100 million. There are also two options that could bring the deal to 10 years, $124 million. 

 

Most seem to think that this is just too low for Acuna and bad for him to sign it. However, it's also OK to say that he's taking $100 million (lifetime security) over an injury or a decline or anything else that could happen. 

 

What do you think? 

 

 

I'm in the too low camp, this is a steal for the Braves, especially with the team options.

 

[ashbury]

It exemplifies the asymmetric relationship between teams and players. A team, even a small market one, can financially withstand a career-ending injury that makes a long contract not worth the money the day after it's signed. A player can not say something similar, about such an injury the day after turning down such a contract. It can be a good deal for both sides, and yet because of the economics of any big business it might be a better deal for the team. "It takes money to make money."

[nicksaviking]

With no offense to Kepler or Polanco, I can't wait until the Twins have a young superstar they get to extend.

 

Maybe Berrios next year or, fingers crossed, Lewis, Kirilloff and/or Graterol soon after.

[Steve Lein]

Criminally underpaid. This says a lot about the current free agency environment.

 

If he signed this deal 8 years ago and was becoming a FA today at 31 years old, he isn't getting much more than this on any new deal.

 

That's a superstar player basically guaranteeing he's going to be one of the most underpaid ones ever.

 

The only way this is good for him is if he has a career ending injury the way I see it. 

 

Edit: And I get the "lifetime security" aspect of it too, but that's MLB taking advantage of the deck they stacked for themselves.

[Vanimal46]

R.I.P. Free agency. It was fun while it lasted.

[spanman2]

Great deal for the Braves...would be interesting to know who convinced him to sign the deal?  Maybe he made his mind up on his own?  Bottom line he is getting 100 large.  Not the worst day of his life.  Perhaps he is looking at it like getting paid this much to play the game I love...sign me up!

[biggentleben]

This is also a guy who had two HUGE injuries already in his career, either of which could have been a career-ender. He's 21 and a superstar already, but there is that aspect of lining up long-term security.

 

In talking to an agent with a mid-tier sports agency, they are having an influx of their baseball clients asking for them to seek out extensions on their current contracts. There's a significant concern among players right now about a prolonged work stoppage, and those with guaranteed contracts would still get paid during such a time.

 

There are now nearly $4.5 billion in extensions that have been signed in 2019.

[Vanimal46]

  On 4/2/2019 at 6:38 PM, biggentleben said:

This is also a guy who had two HUGE injuries already in his career, either of which could have been a career-ender. He's 21 and a superstar already, but there is that aspect of lining up long-term security.

 

In talking to an agent with a mid-tier sports agency, they are having an influx of their baseball clients asking for them to seek out extensions on their current contracts. There's a significant concern among players right now about a prolonged work stoppage, and those with guaranteed contracts would still get paid during such a time.

 

There are now nearly $4.5 billion in extensions that have been signed in 2019.

Your last paragraph is perfect for the other thread 'Plenty of Money'

 

We have examples of hefty extensions issued out by large, mid market, and even Tampa Bay got in the mix extending Blake Snell.

 

The narrative this offseason that owners are barely breaking even or losing money is debunked.

[biggentleben]

What they essentially did was wipe out the 2019/2020 FA market the last four months.

 

The guys left (-x = option for 2020 and/or opt-out):

 

Jose Abreu, Cody Allen, Elvis Andrus-x, Chris Archer-x, Jake Arrieta-x, Dellin Betances, Brad Brach-x, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Carpenter-x, Nicholas Castellanos, Starlin Castro-x, Francisco Cervelli, Tony Cingrani, Steve Cishek, Gerrit Cole, Nelson Cruz-x, Yu Darvish-x, Khris Davis, Corey Dickerson, Josh Donaldson, Sean Doolittle-x, Brian Dozier, Adam Eaton-x, Scooter Gennett, Kyle Gibson, Yasmani Grandal-x, Didi Gregorius, Cole Hamels, Matt Harvey, Felix Hernandez, Jason Heyward-x, Greg Holland, Kenley Jansen-x, Jeremy Jeffress-x, Corey Kluber-x, Starling Marte-x, J.D. Martinez-x, Collin McHugh, Jake Odorizzi, Wily Peralta-x, Yusmeiro Petit-x, Michael Pineda, Rick Porcello, Yasiel Puig, Jose Quintana-x, Anthony Rendon, Hector Rondon, Anthony Rizzo-x, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jonathan Schoop, Will Smith, Justin Smoak, Stephen Strasburg-x, Pedro Strop, Julio Teheran-x, Arodys Vizcaino, Michael Wacha, Tony Watson-x, Zack Wheeler, Alex Wood

 

Really about the only one left under 30 that's a "big-time" guy is Castellanos.

[Steve Lein]

 

  On 4/2/2019 at 6:38 PM, biggentleben said:

This is also a guy who had two HUGE injuries already in his career, either of which could have been a career-ender. He's 21 and a superstar already, but there is that aspect of lining up long-term security.

 

What are these huge injuries you speak of?

 

(I only ask because I've had several way worse injuries than I know he has had in his career, and I still managed to come back to play ball from all of them as a non-professional athlete)

[Seth Stohs]

 

  On 4/2/2019 at 5:45 PM, Steve Lein said:

Criminally underpaid. This says a lot about the current free agency environment.

 

If he signed this deal 8 years ago and was becoming a FA today at 31 years old, he isn't getting much more than this on any new deal.

 

That's a superstar player basically guaranteeing he's going to be one of the most underpaid ones ever.

 

The only way this is good for him is if he has a career ending injury the way I see it. 

 

Edit: And I get the "lifetime security" aspect of it too, but that's MLB taking advantage of the deck they stacked for themselves.

 

I think the idea of "criminally underpaid" is a bit excessive.

 

If he didn't sign this deal,, he would likely get:

 

2019: $600K

2020: $750K

2021: $10M (Arb 1)

2022: $18M (Arb 2)

2023: $24 M (Arb 3)

2024: $30 M (Arb 4)

And then he would be a free agent. And those are the numbers if he remains a superstar... obviously less if he is less because these are Arenado-type numbers in arb.

 

That's $83.35 million over the next six years. Then he would become a free agent at like 26 and probably get numbers around what Harper/Machado got (and maybe more depending on the next CBA). 

 

So yes, he is certainly turning down potentially a lot of money for some security... but let's not pretend the Braves aren't taking any risk here at all. Where Acuna would theoretically lose out on money would be in those free agent years... and if those option years are picked up... If he's healthy and productive, they certainly will be picked up. If he's not healthy, or becomes the next Jose Tabata, man ,this contract looks bad for Atlanta. 

 

I agree... going year-to-year is a great way to potentially maximize by betting on oneself... but this isn't the end of the world for Acuna either. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

The braves are rolling in money. They could burn it, they have so much. They aren't taking any risk here.

[Steve Lein]

 

  On 4/2/2019 at 9:50 PM, Seth Stohs said:

2019: $600K

2020: $750K

2021: $10M (Arb 1)

2022: $18M (Arb 2)

2023: $24 M (Arb 3)

2024: $30 M (Arb 4)

 

And then he would be a free agent. 

 

The last sentence right there is basically my reasoning for putting it that way.

 

He's 26 at that point and can get paid by anybody as a Free Agent. If he's been that good he's looking at $25-ish or more MIL/year on a long-term deal. Say 8 years. On the low-end there's $200MIL (pretty conservative, if you ask me), + the $83.35MIL you outline.

 

That's a heck of a lot more than he's ever going to get now because he's signed this deal. If he's awesome, he's not a free agent until he's over 30, and that next big long-term deal just isn't going to be there (assuming similar market to now).

 

I know these things often work themselves out one way or the other, but again, to me this is the Braves using their stacked deck courtesy of the MLB and the MLBPA probably hates this deal more than any other one that's ever happened.

 

I mean, I get it's not like he NEEDS all that extra potential money if he's a smart guy, but I hate an MLB where a player has to concede this much to feel "secure".

[USAFChief]

Great deal for both sides. The Braves insure themselves if he does become a star. Acuna insures himself if he doesnt. Both risk some money, buy some guarantee.

 

Let's let Acuna actually become someone worth way more before saying the Braves got a steal.

[cardsfan]

  On 4/2/2019 at 9:50 PM, Seth Stohs said:

I think the idea of "criminally underpaid" is a bit excessive.

 

If he didn't sign this deal,, he would likely get:

 

2019: $600K

2020: $750K

2021: $10M (Arb 1)

2022: $18M (Arb 2)

2023: $24 M (Arb 3)

2024: $30 M (Arb 4)

And then he would be a free agent. And those are the numbers if he remains a superstar... obviously less if he is less because these are Arenado-type numbers in arb.

 

That's $83.35 million over the next six years. Then he would become a free agent at like 26 and probably get numbers around what Harper/Machado got (and maybe more depending on the next CBA).

 

So yes, he is certainly turning down potentially a lot of money for some security... but let's not pretend the Braves aren't taking any risk here at all. Where Acuna would theoretically lose out on money would be in those free agent years... and if those option years are picked up... If he's healthy and productive, they certainly will be picked up. If he's not healthy, or becomes the next Jose Tabata, man ,this contract looks bad for Atlanta.

 

I agree... going year-to-year is a great way to potentially maximize by betting on oneself... but this isn't the end of the world for Acuna either.

You are assuming he doesnt have a sophmore slump.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Worth noting that Acuna only got a $100k signing bonus as an amateur, in addition to still being 2 years away from getting more than MLB minimum. He probably had more incentive to sign this deal than some others.

[Mike Sixel]

His agent might not be totally scrupulous......

[Seth Stohs]

 

  On 4/3/2019 at 8:15 PM, cardsfan said:

You are assuming he doesnt have a sophmore slump.

 

Correct. 

[markos]

 

  On 4/3/2019 at 9:07 PM, Mike Sixel said:

His agent might not be totally scrupulous......

It isn't talked about enough how agents do not have the same incentive structure as players while the players are still pre-arbitration. In many ways, it is in the best interest of the agent to sign an extension now rather than wait until arbitration, much less free agency.

[biggentleben]

 

  On 4/2/2019 at 8:22 PM, Steve Lein said:

What are these huge injuries you speak of?

 

(I only ask because I've had several way worse injuries than I know he has had in his career, and I still managed to come back to play ball from all of them as a non-professional athlete)

 

He came within millimeters of shattering his wrist in 2016 and missed nearly the entire season. Last season, he landed awkwardly on a base and missed multiple weeks with a strained knee. He had the knee evaluated over the winter, but things had healed as hoped. It was the sort of landing that has absolutely shredded guys' knees before, and for him, that'd take away a big dynamic in his game.

[biggentleben]

 

  On 4/3/2019 at 2:11 AM, Mike Sixel said:

The braves are rolling in money. They could burn it, they have so much. They aren't taking any risk here.

 

They just guaranteed over $100 million to a player that could have a career-ending injury tomorrow. There's always risk in these deals to some level.

[biggentleben]

 

  On 4/4/2019 at 1:51 PM, markos said:

It isn't talked about enough how agents do not have the same incentive structure as players while the players are still pre-arbitration. In many ways, it is in the best interest of the agent to sign an extension now rather than wait until arbitration, much less free agency.

 

Except Acuna approached the Braves, who then approached his agent. He's one of three that did such this offseason, but he's the first they've gotten done. The Braves did initiate discussions with other agents, but from agents in the game that I've talked to, players are coming to them right now to get extensions due to worries about the future of the game. There's no reason to assume an agent is seeing this as a one-time paycheck.

[markos]

 

  On 4/4/2019 at 2:02 PM, biggentleben said:

Except Acuna approached the Braves, who then approached his agent. He's one of three that did such this offseason, but he's the first they've gotten done. The Braves did initiate discussions with other agents, but from agents in the game that I've talked to, players are coming to them right now to get extensions due to worries about the future of the game. There's no reason to assume an agent is seeing this as a one-time paycheck.

Sure. I didn't mean to say anything about Acuna's agent specifically. I was more just thinking out-loud about the player-agent relationship and how their specific interests don't always align. Mike's comment spurred me to think about it in the context of pre-arb players, which isn't something I had spent a lot of time thinking about before. 

[Mike Sixel]

Kiley McDaniel: on top of that, I didn’t mention that the Braves had uniquely beneficial situation where they had a cornerstone guy who hasn’t gotten paid yet ($100k initial bonus, $500k salaries for the next few years) and there’s some rumors out there about the agent that did the deal, which you can google and kinda figure out what I’m talking about.

12:22
Kiley McDaniel: So the Braves had a guy they really wanted to lock up, who really wanted a payday pretty soon and an agent that wasn’t going to dissuade Acuna from that. Those are the conditions to get a bargain.

12:23
Kiley McDaniel: So, while i said ATL would take something like the Snell deal if Acuna’s camp proposed it, I meant if there was a different agent there. ATL knew they had a great situation and could get a beneficial outcome. If Acuna had hired Boras and they offered the deal I outline in the tweet, I think ATL would take it. But that’s an alternate reality. Happy for the kid that he got paid.

 

Beetlejuice: The number of takes that say “Acuna just screwed himself out of a ton of money” appear pretty ignorant of behavioral economics. People will almost always value $100 now over a 50% chance at $200 in a year. His decision to forgo year to year arbitration and secure his future is completely in line with what most of us would do.

12:33
Kiley McDaniel: This is a bad take, which I’ve seen a lot, because it implies Acuna’s choices were this deal or just make the minimum for two years and who knows, maybe his body explodes on the field tomorrow. He had thousands of choices that would pay him now and give him the chance to get a $300M deal later. THAT is the thing that everyone is saying he could’ve done differently, not that he should’ve sat there and done nothing. And to be clear, it was people with teams and agents both immediately texting me when this came out, all gravitating to that point.

[Mr. Brooks]

  On 4/4/2019 at 1:59 PM, biggentleben said:

They just guaranteed over $100 million to a player that could have a career-ending injury tomorrow. There's always risk in these deals to some level.

Anything could happen, but how often do position players suffer career ending injuries?

Maybe it happens and we don't hear about it/ remember it, I'm not sure.

Is Baldelli the last one who has?

[biggentleben]

 

  On 4/4/2019 at 3:41 PM, Mr. Brooks said:

Anything could happen, but how often do position players suffer career ending injuries?
Maybe it happens and we don't hear about it/ remember it, I'm not sure.
Is Baldelli the last one who has?

 

A lot of guys never get to the point of Baldelli before their injuries hurt them. Imagine what Kevin Keimaier would be if he could stay on the field, for instance, but he's never really done that. Among the top 50 guys in bWAR in their first 3 seasons since 1980,

 

Austin Jackson was elite in his first three years, but he's played 150 games just once since (15.2 of 22.1 career bWAR in his first 3 years),

 

Grady Sizemore never played 120 games again after his fourth full season. He had 25.7 bWAR at that point and has 27.3 career bWAR.

 

Kal Daniels had three great years to open his career, then had injuries blow up his career in the late-1980s (12.0 of 16.9 career bWAR in those first three years).

 

Heck, even Ellis Burks had major injuries change him from a power/speed guy into a one-dimensional player that had one big year with Colorado and one with San Fran in his 30s, but was never really the player he was when he came up, with a .291/.350/.470 slash and 82 steals in his first four games (only one of those years with 150+ games). He totaled 181 steals over an 18-year career.

[biggentleben]

 

  On 4/4/2019 at 4:05 PM, biggentleben said:

A lot of guys never get to the point of Baldelli before their injuries hurt them. Imagine what Kevin Keimaier would be if he could stay on the field, for instance, but he's never really done that. Among the top 50 guys in bWAR in their first 3 seasons since 1980,

 

Austin Jackson was elite in his first three years, but he's played 150 games just once since (15.2 of 22.1 career bWAR in his first 3 years),

 

Grady Sizemore never played 120 games again after his fourth full season. He had 25.7 bWAR at that point and has 27.3 career bWAR.

 

Kal Daniels had three great years to open his career, then had injuries blow up his career in the late-1980s (12.0 of 16.9 career bWAR in those first three years).

 

Heck, even Ellis Burks had major injuries change him from a power/speed guy into a one-dimensional player that had one big year with Colorado and one with San Fran in his 30s, but was never really the player he was when he came up, with a .291/.350/.470 slash and 82 steals in his first four games (only one of those years with 150+ games). He totaled 181 steals over an 18-year career.

 

The thing is that each of those guys I mentioned (other than Kiermaier) was a guy used as a comparison for Acuna as he was coming up. The comp I made for him was young Curtis Granderson. Granderson really altered his swing once he got to New York, changing his profile significantly, but he once put up a 4x20 season (20+ doubles, triples, home runs, and stolen bases)

[Steve Lein]

 

  On 4/4/2019 at 1:57 PM, biggentleben said:

He came within millimeters of shattering his wrist in 2016 and missed nearly the entire season. Last season, he landed awkwardly on a base and missed multiple weeks with a strained knee. He had the knee evaluated over the winter, but things had healed as hoped. It was the sort of landing that has absolutely shredded guys' knees before, and for him, that'd take away a big dynamic in his game.

 

So injury "scares," and not actual injuries? I get thinking about just being "secure" but implying there's a level of concession he made because he's afraid of injuring himself I don't buy for a second.

[jkcarew]

This says nothing about the current status of free agency. Unless one thinks Acuna was 'discouraged' by the contracts Harper and Machado signed. Their situations/ages were very analogous to where Acuna would have found himself if he had chosen to defer the payday, and bet on his health and performance.

 

This is one person making an individual/personal choice to get rich now, and forego the possibility of some later earnings that could make him much richer yet at that later date. It's worth mentioning that betting on your performance and health as did Harper and Machado might look differently for a kid that grew up in Venezuela (Acuna) vs someone who grew up in Las Vegas or Miami (Harper/Machado). I say, congratulations to Acuna for being in a position to be able to make the choice he just made.

 

IMO, comments regarding his view of injury risk and lockout risk are relevant. Meanwhile, it's a no-brainer for the Braves.