Article: Week in Review: Opening Salvos

[ashbury]

Yarnivek has an interesting observation. And I feel a valid one. Things like run expectations are an average of what will happen with non identified players in a certain situation.

FanGraphs has taken a crack at this. I'm not sure how successfully.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/introducing-the-batter-specific-run-expectancy-tool/

 

I agree that we're a long way away from using actual RE tables to make game decisions. They're just (IMO) interesting as a way of setting a baseline for discussion. Fast/slow runner on second, a good/bad hitter at the plate, a good bunter on the bench... all these will adjust the numbers, at the risk of cutting down the numbers to Small Sample Size, meaning that the manager using his noodle to decide is still probably for the best.

[Channing1964]

i didnt get to see that game but this is exactly the situation when i say you have to manage with your heart and not your folder full of analytics mumbo jumbo. Who in there right mind wouldn't have pinch hit for Kepler in that situation? A bunch of information showing you how excellent Astidillo is at handling the bat doesnt tell you he should be up in that situation? And this decision came from a "forward thinking analytics friendly" manager? Wow! IMO this kind of thing contradicts everything this FO has tried to force feed us. Let me see, man on second, down by one at home, nobody out.(AND, the runner is Buxton) Hmmmm what should I do....OMG....HMMMM....Why wont Derek answer my calls ...OMG....im running out of time...LET HIM HIT....I know...he has no chance in hell...the analytics tell me.... Now old school thinking in order of the first thoughts in my head. Pinch hit Astudillo for Kepler(or maybe even Austin), have Kepler bunt him over because in extra innings i dont wanna lose Kepler's defense out there, or three, try to steal third. Not once does having him swing away enter my mind in that situation. Molitor would have won that game. (i know....but I'm just sayin...lol)

[yarnivek1972]

i didnt get to see that game but this is exactly the situation when i say you have to manage with your heart and not your folder full of analytics mumbo jumbo. Who in there right mind wouldn't have pinch hit for Kepler in that situation? A bunch of information showing you how excellent Astidillo is at handling the bat doesnt tell you he should be up in that situation? And this decision came from a "forward thinking analytics friendly" manager? Wow! IMO this kind of thing contradicts everything this FO has tried to force feed us. Let me see, man on second, down by one at home, nobody out.(AND, the runner is Buxton) Hmmmm what should I do....OMG....HMMMM....Why wont Derek answer my calls ...OMG....im running out of time...LET HIM HIT....I know...he has no chance in hell...the analytics tell me.... Now old school thinking in order of the first thoughts in my head. Pinch hit Astudillo for Kepler(or maybe even Austin), have Kepler bunt him over because in extra innings i dont wanna lose Kepler's defense out there, or three, try to steal third. Not once does having him swing away enter my mind in that situation. Molitor would have won that game. (i know....but I'm just sayin...lol)

It should be noted that Buxton was the tying run. Not the winning run.

[ewen21]

My biggest takeaway are the doubles Buxton has hit, specifically the last one. He had two strikes on him and he SMOKED the ball

 

Enough of this talk about having him bunt and beat the ball on the ground. Hit the hard and often.

[ewen21]

Wayyyy too early to got on Rocco. Look at what Gable Kapler did in Philly last year and they were ROASTING him in April

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

I'm not sure that's true. If you believe in Run Expectancy (which you may not), there's a lower probability of scoring from 3rd with 1 out than there is from 2nd with 0 outs. In fact, one could make a claim that an outfield single with Buxton on 2nd scores him easily. Similar to having a Trout at abat, you have an elite baserunner on 2nd.

Thank you.

[Dantes929]

 

My biggest takeaway are the doubles Buxton has hit, specifically the last one. He had two strikes on him and he SMOKED the ball

Enough of this talk about having him bunt and beat the ball on the ground. Hit the hard and often.

I don't know about beat the ball on the ground but enough of this talk about not bunting.    He should absolutely be bunting and often.     Unless there are guys on base his bunts are the equivalent of doubles since he soon steals 2nd.    In essence, is he more likely to get a base hit bunting or swinging away?     I think he is more likely to get on by bunting and by a fair margin.   Its exciting, it gets under the skin of the opposing team and it is a slump buster.    If he's not bunting he is diminishing his best tool which is his speed.

[Dantes929]

 

 

 . If you simply manage by the spread sheet, you could probably get some 30 something guy to manage who has never managed a baseball game in his life, and stick him in the dugout?

I'm no where near convinced the results would be much different.    Now of course Kepler swinging away could have turned out well but the guy with the spreadsheet probably doesn't keep an 0-7 guy in against a lefty specialist. and either puts in a guy that is likely to make contact or someone more likely to get a bunt down.    Of course there is a fair chance that that won't work either so I am not giving a full WAR to the guy with the spreadsheet but I am giving him an edge.    I'm not big on hindsight but I think there were definitely those out there questioning the non move before the results were in.

[jorgenswest]

I don't know about beat the ball on the ground but enough of this talk about not bunting.    He should absolutely be bunting and often.     Unless there are guys on base his bunts are the equivalent of doubles since he soon steals 2nd.    In essence, is he more likely to get a base hit bunting or swinging away?     I think he is more likely to get on by bunting and by a fair margin.   Its exciting, it gets under the skin of the opposing team and it is a slump buster.    If he's not bunting he is diminishing his best tool which is his speed.

I don’t think it is that easy to bunt. It takes good hands and pitch recognition. It takes hard work which I don’t think anyone doubts about Buxton. The downside of bunting is getting behind early in the count and then having to fight to get back in the count. You really need good pitch recognition to win that battle.

 

He just had a series where he had two hits that rank as his top two exit velocities of his career. I would rather he put the majority of work towards barreling up the ball.

[ewen21]

If he doesn't know how to bunt effectively yet then it's probably too late to push it on him now. It's a lost art and guys just don't make that part of their routine. It's been hard enough having him figure out how to hit and now that it looks like he might be there we are going to ask him to bunt?

 

No way. Carlos Gomez felt the need to bunt under the Gardy regime and he was a complete basket case with that. I don't want Buxton thinking "should I bunt here?"

 

No. Go up there thinking about a pitch and drive that thing hard. Would be nice to see him use the right/centerfield gap more but one step at a time. At least he has a few hits and well struck ones at that

[TheLeviathan]

 

Yeah, I'm with Parker Hageman on Team #NoBunt so I agree with you. They needed someone who could put the ball in play, find a hole, and Buxton scores easily from 2nd base.

I was disappointed Baldelli left Kepler in and swing away when he's not seeing the ball well. Plus, Brad Hand is elite against LH batters.

 

Right, not a good call.  But Rocco is new and this is something he hopefully learns from.  Managers get to do that too,

[Dantes929]

 

I don’t think it is that easy to bunt. It takes good hands and pitch recognition. It takes hard work which I don’t think anyone doubts about Buxton. The downside of bunting is getting behind early in the count and then having to fight to get back in the count. You really need good pitch recognition to win that battle.

He just had a series where he had two hits that rank as his top two exit velocities of his career. I would rather he put the majority of work towards barreling up the ball.

I don't think bunting is easy but at the same time I think Buxton showed some strong signs of being good at it in 2017.   I don't know how many bunt hits he had that year but I think it was enough to keep him in the lineup that year when the rest of his offense was struggling.    Once he got the rest of his offense going it was still a great weapon.    IMO it enhances the rest of his offensive game, it doesn't diminish it.   Last year I saw him bunt once.    It was a sacrifice right back to the pitcher and he still beat it out.   

 

 https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/12/10/3748738/best-bunter-all-time-career-bunt-hits-bases-empty-mlb

 

Why is it so hard to find stats for bunts?     Anyone know what Buxton's BABIP is for bunts?

[jorgenswest]

The stats I have seen for bunts are skewed. They only count successful bunts. They don’t count the failed bunt attempts that put the hitter behind in the count and don’t end in a bunt attempt. If the data doesn’t account for those failures all bunters will look pretty good.

[DocBauer]

Absolutely NOT picking on anyone or any single opinion stated! Just find it interesting and humorous...but that's baseball...that there is so much debate about players and the manager after THREE GAMES, lol.

 

I think Astudillo should have PH for Kepler in the same situation. Who knows what would have happened? And I am NOT attempting to open a debate after THREE GAMES as to the merit of Kepler hitting leadoff. But I think it's funny to question it at this point. Kid has TONS of talent, has shown flashes, has embraced his role, had a good ST, knkws how to take good AB and make contact, take BB, as nas spoken recently about continuing to do so while also changing his approach to being more aggressive at the same time. It's not a moxioron. Its about believing in yourself and your talent and approach. It's about being aggressive when you see a good pitch, but still holding back. (The opposite of Sano and Buxton last season, but that's a different discussion entirely)!

 

Gladden made a great comment the other day about Kepler hitting #1 in regard to the past when you were just looking for that speed guy at the top of the order. But it's more now about OB. His comment was Kepler shouldn't necessarily try to change his entire approach, but rather, just be the best hitter he could be. Especially in a lineup that appears to be deep and he won't be leading off every inning.

[DocBauer]

Part 2:

 

It's VERY early. 3 games! 3 early and cold games where the ppitchers may have an advantage due to dead air and cold temps. And yes, the Indians lineup isn't exactly stacked.

 

But guess what? The cold temperatures don't just affect the hitters, they affect the pitchers as well. I am no expert, but can you imagine keeping your arm loose, and trying to feel the ball when the temp is in the 30-40 degree range?

 

No matter the Indians roster, they have 3 of the top 10-15 SP in the AL. The Twins beat 2 of them, and maybe should have won all 3 games. No matter how badly you may want to berate the lineup the Indians put out there...at worst...it was a collection of ML and AAAA hitters. Forget matching a record and trying to make excuses for said record. How often do you see a AAA game where there are so many SO? How often do you see a ML SP on milb rehab dominate and SO so many batters?

 

There is no telling, at this point, how good or average the starting rotation could be. But to be dismissive of the Twins pitchers actually outperforming the Indians starters in the same cold March weather over a three game series is rather defeatist. Enjoy and revel and let's see what they and Johnson can accomplish going forward!

 

As someone pointed out, this may be the best SP staff we have seen in Target Field. (I still would thrown Pineda out for the 5th. Lots of opportunity to control his IP).

[h2oface]

 

I listened to Baldelli talk about the game.  And then I listened to Franconia.  There's no doubt who I'd rather play for.  Maybe the new guys know what they're doing, but listening to these egghead quant guys talk is downright nauseating.  I miss the plain speak of guys like Gardy, and Franconia and Earl Weaver.  At least they were funny.  I haven't laughed since listening to Gardy talk about "Loose Canon #1 and Loose Canon #2.  I guess winning is better than laughing.  We'll see what the new guys can do.

 

Too each his own. Gardenhire's blather made me sick, and rarely laugh, but often made me sick and furious and yell at the screen. I would take anyone BUT Gardenhire, so maybe, just maybe, I am biased.

Edited April 2, 2019 by h2oface

[h2oface]

"Kepler struck out, and the rally went on to fall short. Presumably, Baldelli is just trying to show confidence in his core guys, but turning to a contact machine like Willians Astudillo in that spot – speedy runner on second, no outs, deepest bench the Twins will have all year – seemed like such an obvious call that it was surprising not to see it from the ostensibly analytical thinker. ....."

 

Exactly!

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Well, along those lines,  Having a guy on 2nd that has a perfect steal rate over the last two seasons changes odds as well.   What are his chances of stealing 3rd?   That should be compared to the odds of getting a bunt down successfully as well.  In any case, I believe the Turtle pinch hitting would have been a good move there.   

 

This might have been the better approach. Buxton still isn't scoring from second on an infield grounder. I could easily see pinch hitting Astrudillo for Kepler there and having Buxton steal early in the count. Only real issue is the defense is obviously looking for it, so the chances of a pitch out are high. 

[Dantes929]

 

This might have been the better approach. Buxton still isn't scoring from second on an infield grounder. I could easily see pinch hitting Astrudillo for Kepler there and having Buxton steal early in the count. Only real issue is the defense is obviously looking for it, so the chances of a pitch out are high. 

Yep, that's the risk.    You go back to percentages.    Left handed pitcher and right handed batter helps so what are the odds of success of Buxton stealing vs being able to move him over with a sacrifice bunt because those are far from a sure thing also.   Every move had a possibility of success or failure and I am sure we don't have this discussion if Kepler had drilled a two run homer (though the rare posts I respect the most would have still  questioned it) but I am sure I am also not the only one that went "huh" when he left Kepler in swinging away.

[Channing1964]

It should be noted that Buxton was the tying run. Not the winning run.

if we tie that game i bet the fangraphs win probability went up to like 89.92%. Their closer was already on the mound and we were at home. I would have gone all out for a tie, and I would have bet my farm we were gonna win. I hope we don't have to play a 163rd game because of this.

[ScooterDance]

Now a career .371 hitter with a .371/.388/.546 triple slash.

 

The legend grows. No chance of regression.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

if we tie that game i bet the fangraphs win probability went up to like 89.92%. Their closer was already on the mound and we were at home. I would have gone all out for a tie, and I would have bet my farm we were gonna win. I hope we don't have to play a 163rd game because of this.

I think Fangraphs needs to rethink their win probability if that's true. I could see it being over 50%, but it shouldn't be that high. 

[Channing1964]

I think Fangraphs needs to rethink their win probability if that's true. I could see it being over 50%, but it shouldn't be that high.

L.M.M.F.A.O