Fun With Numbers 2019

[USAFChief]

Going in to today's games the AL is 17 games under .500 against the NL. Last season was the first time since 2003 that the NL had a winning record in interleague play and it certainly looks as though that could happen again this year.

 

Here is the division-by-division breakdown:

ALE -9 (-4 interleague)

ALC -17 (-12 interleague)

ALW +9 (-1 interleague)

NLE -8 (+8 interleague)

NLC +8 (+1 interleague)

NLW +17 (+8 interleague)

 

So not only does the ALC have by far the worst record of any division, but it also has by far the worst record in interleague play. Moreover, the ALC is paired with the worst division in the NL, the NLE, in interleague play. It appears that the numbers bear out what probably most people expected going into the season, that the ALC is the weakest division in baseball.

I'd also argue that the numbers confirm the NL has passed the AL by and is the stronger league, top to bottom, currently.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Another 4 home run game... ho hum.

[twinsfanstreif]

 

1a5a850.jpg

Found on Reddit... This is totally unsustainable!

"Guys, we're gonna have to ask you to take it easy on the home runs. We simply can't afford it.....That'd be great, thanks"

[Vanimal46]

NOT Fun with Numbers:

 

In Cleveland's next 35 games, only 3 games (against the Twins) are against teams with a record above .500. This will be their time to make a run if it's in the cards this season.

[Puckett34]

 

NOT Fun with Numbers:

In Cleveland's next 35 games, only 3 games (against the Twins) are against teams with a record above .500. This will be their time to make a run if it's in the cards this season.

Hey now, Texas is 5 games over .500 too. So 7 games. 

 

Of course, that doesn't make a person feel much better.

 

By contrast, in that same amount of time the Twins have 13 games vs teams over .500 in the next 35 games

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

NOT Fun with Numbers:

In Cleveland's next 35 games, only 3 games (against the Twins) are against teams with a record above .500. This will be their time to make a run if it's in the cards this season.

 

just keep winning games... then this doesn't matter.

[Vanimal46]

Twins against the AL West: 13-5

Twins against the AL Central: 14-6

Twins against the AL East: 14-6

 

That, my friends, is balance.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here's a weird stat for the day:

 

The Minnesota Twins have played more games against teams over .500 (25) than the New York Yankees (22).

[Vanimal46]

Here's a weird stat for the day:

 

The Minnesota Twins have played more games against teams over .500 (25) than the New York Yankees (22).

HOW CAN WE PLAN AHEAD AND BUY AT THE TRADE DEADLINE WHEN THEY HAVEN'T PLAYED GOOD TEAMS??!!!???!

 

whoops, wrong thread.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Here's a weird stat for the day:

 

The Minnesota Twins have played more games against teams over .500 (25) than the New York Yankees (22).

It seems the Twins and Yankees are tied near the bottom in "Strength of Schedule" over at B-Ref, although good teams don't generally finish high in this measurement:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB-standings.shtml#expanded_standings_overall::11

 

The bottom 5 teams in this measurement last year? All 5 AL Central teams.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Twins against the AL West: 13-5
Twins against the AL Central: 14-6
Twins against the AL East: 14-6

That, my friends, is balance.

Dang it, now I'm sort of rooting for a split in these next two games vs Seattle, as opposed to a sweep!

[yarnivek1972]

Twins against the AL West: 13-5

Twins against the AL Central: 14-6

Twins against the AL East: 14-6

 

That, my friends, is balance.

One thing that tells me is that the Twins have a ton of games vs the AL Central yet to play since they play more against those 4 teams than the other 10 AL teams combined. 56 games remaining against the ALC to be exact.

[twinsfanstreif]

After today's game we passed the 2012 and 1967 Twins team season total HRs. So far (well before the AS break) we are exactly in the middle for season totals (since the team moved to MN) with 132 HRs, having passed 31 Twins teams and are tied for 31st place overall with the '97 Twins.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Minnesota has scored a whopping 129 more runs than Cleveland, good for an additional 1.92 runs per game.

[Nine of twelve]

 

Going in to today's games the AL is 17 games under .500 against the NL. Last season was the first time since 2003 that the NL had a winning record in interleague play and it certainly looks as though that could happen again this year.

 

Here is the division-by-division breakdown:

ALE -9 (-4 interleague)

ALC -17 (-12 interleague)

ALW +9 (-1 interleague)

NLE -8 (+8 interleague)

NLC +8 (+1 interleague)

NLW +17 (+8 interleague)

 

So not only does the ALC have by far the worst record of any division, but it also has by far the worst record in interleague play. Moreover, the ALC is paired with the worst division in the NL, the NLE, in interleague play. It appears that the numbers bear out what probably most people expected going into the season, that the ALC is the weakest division in baseball.

Update:

ALE: -13

ALC: -16

ALW: +13

NLE:-6

NLC:+4

NLW:+18

 

During a broadcast a few days ago Dick Bremer referred to the AL East as the toughest division in baseball. He seems to be remembering how things were a few years ago and paying no attention to this year's performances by the two avian members of this division. They could wind up being the worst division in baseball if this keeps up.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Update:

ALE: -13

ALC: -16

ALW: +13

NLE:-6

NLC:+4

NLW:+18

 

During a broadcast a few days ago Dick Bremer referred to the AL East as the toughest division in baseball. He seems to be remembering how things were a few years ago and paying no attention to this year's performances by the two avian members of this division. They could wind up being the worst division in baseball if this keeps up.

I think it's easy to go on autopilot and assume the ALE is the best division "every year" instead of "lots of years".

[nicksaviking]

I wasn't able to watch the game yesterday but I followed the game thread. Were the TV folks mentioning a change in velocity for Pineda yesterday? Because Brooks Baseball says he's gained almost 2 MPH on his four-seamer since he's returned.

 

That's encouraging.

[dbminn]

The Twins are 45-22. On this day in 2018, they were 29-35, a 13-1/2 game difference. A lot of reasons have been given for the improvement, including Baldelli, Wes Johnson and better FA/DFA choices by the front office. All are true, IMO. 

 

There is one more area where the Twins have improved - players have been healthy and on the field.

 

2018

Castro    74 PA, .495 OPS, 0.0 WAR. Played his last game on May 4.

Polanco   0 PA, .000 OPS, 0.0 WAR. Suspended for first 80 games. Finished season at 1.3 WAR.

Buxton   94 PA, .383 OPS, -0.4 WAR. Played half his games with a broken foot. Would play no more.

Sano     163 PA, .675 OPS, 0.0 WAR. Was optioned to Ft Myers on June 14 for conditioning.

 

2019

Castro   114 PA, .926 OPS, 1.4 WAR 

Polanco 290 PA, .966 OPS, 2.9 WAR 

Buxton   225 PA, .852 OPS, 2.2 WAR

Sano        83 PA, .914 OPS, 0.7 WAR

 

Total difference:

2018:  331 PA, -0.4 WAR

2019:  717 PA, 7.2 WAR

 

That's 7-1/2 additional wins, or a bit more than half the total improvement in the Twins record. Only Polanco contributed during the second half of the 2018 season.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

More fun with numbers, On This Date edition:

 

On June 14, 2019, the Twins are 11.0 games ahead of Cleveland.

 

On June 14, 2006, the Detroit was 11.0 games ahead of the Twins

 

Which is only to say there is still a ton of season left..

[terrydactyls]

Just for laughs, I took Twins individual statistics through tonight's game and prorated them over the rest of the season.  Here are their numbers:

 

Player            R     H    2B    3B    HR    RBI   SB
Adrianza, E    47    68     5      0       9       31     0
Buxton, B       94  129   49      7     21       89   23
Castro, J        56    61    14     0     19       45     0
Cron, C          75  148    38     0     35     108     0
Cruz, N          61  106    21     0     28       73     0
Garver, M      63    87     14     2     26       66     0
Gonzalez, M  66  141     26     0     23       61     2
Kepler, M     113  150     38     0     42     103     2
Polanco, J   106  211     52   12     23       87     5
Rosario, E    113 160     21     2     45     122     5
Sano, M         38   42     16     0     14       28     0
Schoop, J      80 131     35     0     28       77     2

[jimbo92107]

 

Just for laughs, I took Twins individual statistics through tonight's game and prorated them over the rest of the season.  Here are their numbers:

 

Player            R     H    2B    3B    HR    RBI   SB
Adrianza, E    47    68     5      0       9       31     0
Buxton, B       94  129   49      7     21       89   23
Castro, J        56    61    14     0     19       45     0
Cron, C          75  148    38     0     35     108     0
Cruz, N          61  106    21     0     28       73     0
Garver, M      63    87     14     2     26       66     0
Gonzalez, M  66  141     26     0     23       61     2
Kepler, M     113  150     38     0     42     103     2
Polanco, J   106  211     52   12     23       87     5
Rosario, E    113 160     21     2     45     122     5
Sano, M         38   42     16     0     14       28     0
Schoop, J      80 131     35     0     28       77     2

See if I can help out that table a bit...

 

Man, that was a hassle. Interesting numbers, tho.

 

 

[ashbury]

 

Just for laughs, I took Twins individual statistics through tonight's game and prorated them over the rest of the season.  Here are their numbers:

 

Player            R     H    2B    3B    HR    RBI   SB
Adrianza, E    47    68     5      0       9       31     0
Buxton, B       94  129   49      7     21       89   23
Castro, J        56    61    14     0     19       45     0
Cron, C          75  148    38     0     35     108     0
Cruz, N          61  106    21     0     28       73     0
Garver, M      63    87     14     2     26       66     0
Gonzalez, M  66  141     26     0     23       61     2
Kepler, M     113  150     38     0     42     103     2
Polanco, J   106  211     52   12     23       87     5
Rosario, E    113 160     21     2     45     122     5
Sano, M         38   42     16     0     14       28     0
Schoop, J      80 131     35     0     28       77     2

Too many double spaces in this. I couldn't figure out how to make it look right in this WYSIWYG editor, but here is a screen-shot of what I managed to see:

 

 

And my reaction: 94 runs and 89 RBI from your #9 hitter? Over 100 RBI from your leadoff guy? 100+ runs and 100+ RBI from your catching duo?

 

[dbminn]

My last post of fun numbers had the Twins 13.5 games ahead of last season's pace, with 7.6 additional wins coming from existing players who are now healthy or not stupid enough to get suspended for PEDs again.

 

Here's the change in fWAR for players that were with the Twins last season and are now gone versus the players who took their place. As of June 14:

 

2018

1B - Joe Mauer: 167 PA, .759 OPS, 0.7 WAR

2B - Brian Dozier: 288 PA, .699 OPS, 0.5 WAR

UT - Eduardo Escobar: 262 PA, .904 OPS, 2.0 WAR

DH - Logan Morrison: 228 PA, .632 OPS, -0.4 WAR

SP - Lance Lynn: 68.2 IP, 4.98 ERA, 0.8 WAR

TOTAL - 3.6 WAR

 

2019

1B - CJ Cron: 249 PA, .867 OPS, 1.1 WAR

2B - Jonathon Schoop: 235 PA, .784 OPS, 1.1 WAR

UT - Marwin Gonzalez: 239 PA, .746 OPS, 0.9 WAR

DH - Nelson Cruz: 181 PA, .940 OPS, 1.1 WAR

SP - Martin Perez: 70.1 IP, 3.97 ERA, 1.4 WAR

TOTAL - 5.6 WAR

 

Of the 13.5 win improvement between 2018 and 2019 as of June 14th, an extra 2.0 WAR came from personnel changes. Escobar was excellent last season (and again this year).

 

The prospects that were sent to the Twins in the Esco trade are doing well (Jhoan Duran and Gabriel Maciel). The same can be said for the Dozier trade (Raley and Smeltzer) and the Lynn deal (Jose Rijo).

 

* - Note: there were other players who played and are not on the current roster. I focused only on the significant changes. There's another list to come...

 

[terrydactyls]

See if I can help out that table a bit...

Twins Stats.gif

 

Man, that was a hassle. Interesting numbers, tho.

Thanks. I tried several times to get it readable but without any luck (obviously).

[jimbo92107]

 

Thanks. I tried several times to get it readable but without any luck (obviously).

I copied the table into Word, normalized a few things, made a table, then copy/pasted using the Paste from Word command, which sadly dropped the nice formatting I did for a simple grid. Oh, well. I wish there was an easier way to copy images to the forum. A screen grab can be all you need sometimes. 

[dbminn]

I've looked at how the Twins have improved due to health and new players. Now, let's look at the change in fWAR for players who were in the lineup early last season. Again, the end date is June 14th.

 

2019

C - Mitch Garver: 126 PA, 1.096 OPS, 1.7 WAR

OF - Max Kepler: 270 PA, .887 OPS, 2.6 WAR

OF - Eddie Rosario: 274 PA, .821 OPS, 1.1 WAR

SP - Jose Berrios: 89.2 IP, 3.01 ERA, 2.2 WAR

SP - Jake Odorizzi: 70.1 IP, 1.92 ERA, 2.5 WAR

SP - Kyle Gibson: 75.1 IP, 3.70 ERA, 1.6 WAR

SP - Michael Pineda: 69.2 IP, 5.04 ERA, 0.6 WAR

TOTAL - Position Players 5.4 WAR; SP 6.9 WAR

 

2018

C - Mitch Garver: 132 PA, .664 OPS, -0.3 WAR

OF - Max Kepler: 256 PA, .737 OPS, 1.2 WAR

OF - Eddie Rosario: 274 PA, .898 OPS, 2.5 WAR

SP - Jose Berrios: 89.2 IP, 3.51 ERA, 2.1 WAR

SP - Jake Odorizzi: 73.0 IP, 1.92 ERA, 0.5 WAR

SP - Kyle Gibson: 75.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 1.4 WAR

SP - Michael Pineda: 0.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.0 WAR

TOTAL - Position Players 3.4 WAR; SP 4.0 WAR

 

Garver and Kepler have led an improved core of position players who were in the lineup in early 2018. Odo has led the SP's increased WAR. Total difference from 2018 to 2019: 4.9 WAR

 

In this series, the improvements are as follows (so far):

 

7.6 WAR - Return of 2018 Injured/Suspended Players

2.0 WAR - New Talent

4.9 WAR - Players who have Improved in 2019 and Played in 2018

13.5 WAR - TOTAL

 

This equates to the actual Twins improvement from 2018 to 2019. But we have three small areas remaining: Bullpen, Depth and "Luck"...

 

* - Note... I included Pineda in this group because his recovery in 2018 was planned. He could be moved to the Injured/Suspended group too.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I copied the table into Word, normalized a few things, made a table, then copy/pasted using the Paste from Word command, which sadly dropped the nice formatting I did for a simple grid. Oh, well. I wish there was an easier way to copy images to the forum. A screen grab can be all you need sometimes. 

We're in the process of a complete redesign and upgrade. One of the things on my list is to fix/update the RTE's awful formatting.

 

But we're still probably six months out from launch. It's a massive project.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Speaking of impressive:
 

Today is Saturday, June 15 and it was the 69th game of the year.  The Twins are now 43%  of the way through the season.  Out of 59 years, the current team ranks 28th on the all-time list of Twins' home runs in one season and are on a pace to hit 317 home runs this season.

 

 

[Nine of twelve]

 

See if I can help out that table a bit...

Twins Stats.gif

 

Man, that was a hassle. Interesting numbers, tho.

Question: Do Sano's projected numbers include all his time on the IL? (Based on the relatively low numbers I assume this is the case.) It may be more appropriate to prorate his numbers based on number of games since he came off the IL.

[jkcarew]

 

Question: Do Sano's projected numbers include all his time on the IL? (Based on the relatively low numbers I assume this is the case.) It may be more appropriate to prorate his numbers based on number of games since he came off the IL.

Good point...and it got me thinking...

 

Who are the top Twins in terms of RATES (per PA) for the categories included in this table (and a couple more). So here goes...some eye-openers here (at least for me)...(those currently on the 25-man roster)...

 

Hits: 1-Polanco; 2-Garver

2B: Buxton; Sano

3B: Polanco; Buxton

HR: Garver; Sano

RBI: Garver; Rosario

SB: Buxton; Rosario

BB: Sano; Kepler

K: lowest...Polanco; Rosario (highest...Sano; Cruz)