Article: Report From The Fort: Breaking Down Baldelli's 'A Lineup'

[mickeymental]

byron buxton is teasing twins fans again:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/byron-buxton-is-teasing-twins-fans-again/

[Nick Nelson]

 

If Kepler was hitting like he did last year I don't think he's productive or consistent enough to leadoff and if he finally realizes his potential, he'd probably be better served in the middle of the lineup.

Key thing to note: Even though Kepler's batting average dropped by 20 pts from the previous season, his OBP went up by 4 points. The decline in BA owes to a .224 BABIP that was one of the lowest in the league, and almost 50 points below his previous career mark.

 

If he bats even .250 while maintaining his walk rate, he suddenly has an OBP in the .350 range.

[bighat]

 

byron buxton is teasing twins fans again:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/byron-buxton-is-teasing-twins-fans-again/

 

If Buxton strikes out in his first AB of the year I'm going to just collapse in despair.

 

If he grounds out to short stop, I'll jump for joy. Please Bux, just put the bat on the ball and good thing will happen. We don't need him to bat .320, I think we'd all settle for .250. Very anxious about Bux again this year.

[TheLeviathan]

 

byron buxton is teasing twins fans again:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/byron-buxton-is-teasing-twins-fans-again/

 

Clearly we should trade for Peter Bourjos.

[Obsvr]

 

Clearly we should trade for Peter Bourjos.

 

Ahhh good ol Gorgeous Bourjos

 

[Doomtints]

Buxton is dominating spring training. What are those other guys' names again?

Edited March 19, 2019 by Doomtints

[MABB1959]

There's a nice amount of power in the middle of the order, and with Cron and Schoope behind Gonzalez, I have to think he sees a lot of good pitches... 

 

Castro is probably going to be a black hole... I'm not expecting much from him this year. Hopefully, Garver makes enough defensive strides that Castro finds himself more of in a backup role as time goes on. 

 

If Buxton and Kepler can finally break out... that will be a nasty lineup.

[MABB1959]

Suzuki seems to be off to an okay start

[MABB1959]

This is Baldelli getting off on the right foot.  Nice lineup  construction.

[MABB1959]

With Mauer and Dozier gone there is so much flexibility. I don’t think Molitor had much of a choice but to play those 2 in prime spots.

[gman]

I think when Sano gets back he should bat 6th or 7th until he settles in and forces a move up(hopefully). I try to imagine a lineup where part of the best batting order has Sano, Garver and Buxton hitting 7-9. Then I try to imagine anyone suggesting 3 years ago that the best lineup might have Sano and Buxton hitting 7 & 9.

[Kelly Vance]

 

With Mauer and Dozier gone there is so much flexibility. I don’t think Molitor had much of a choice but to play those 2 in prime spots.

Well Dozier was a homer guy who hit more homers in a year than anyone but the Killer. In fact, only Doze and Harm ever hit more than 40 HRs in a year. Mauer led all of baseball in BA with RISP in his mid 30s.  Why wouldn't Molly have put them in prime positions? Its not like we had better guys on the bench. 

 

 

[Kelly Vance]

This lineup could all hit 20 HRs top to bottom.  When have we ever had that?

 

Buck should bat leadoff. He is hitting like .438 this spring with power. I get the conventional wisdom that  Keps is a more patient hitter, so guys will see more pitches, but really, he is not a base stealer. Buck has stolen his last 29 bases without getting caught, or something ridiculous like that. So while I wouldn't call Buck a patient hitter, isn't being able to steal safely to get into scoring position even more important?. 

[yarnivek1972]

This lineup could all hit 20 HRs top to bottom. When have we ever had that?

 

Buck should bat leadoff. He is hitting like .438 this spring with power. I get the conventional wisdom that Keps is a more patient hitter, so guys will see more pitches, but really, he is not a base stealer. Buck has stolen his last 29 bases without getting caught, or something ridiculous like that. So while I wouldn't call Buck a patient hitter, isn't being able to steal safely to get into scoring position even more important?.

It is. But part of getting into scoring position involves getting on base. Until Buxton shows some ability to do that, he should not hit lead off.

 

Kepler’s career obp isn’t very good either, but his BB rate is team best aside from Cruz. The skills are there to be a successful leadoff hitter. It remains to be seen if he can actually do it. Personally, I feel it is far more likely that Kepler will increase his .236 BABIP from 2018 (and in so doing increase all his slash numbers) than Buxton will significantly increase his career obp from .285.

[Linus]

Love the spring training optimism but this lineup looks like it could strike out a record amount and struggle to get on base. Lots of solo homers in our future

[Doomtints]

I think overall this team will do well but will be sunk by a long losing streak or two.