Twins and Gibson Discussion and Extension

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If and when he signs, I’d like to hear the Gleeman and Bonnes takes. For a lengthy period of time Aaron was in the “he’s just not good” and John was in the “he’s going to turn a corner” camps. Will Aaron admit the error of his ways?

That's not really fair. Aaron said he wasn't good when he wasn't good. Aaron was also one of the first people to speak up when Gibson actually became good. Some guy at BP (I think??) wrote an article about Kyle's change of approach and Aaron changed his opinion at that time, as any rational person would do.

 

And that take happened like a month after the change of approach when Gibson still had a 5-ish ERA so it wasn't hindsight at all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

if you don’t find better talent, then how do you expect to improve?

Agreed on “ONE of Gonsalves, Littell, Lewis, Graterol, Romero or Mejia” 100% but you to an extent need all 2/3 of them to have significant success for 4th thru 8th spots in the rotation if you don’t improve at the front of the rotation. That’s still a lot to ask for guys who several of which should IMO get converted to relievers.

Yikes, I think you're missing the take here. Yeah, several of those guys will end up as relievers but that's the point of development, isn't it? The team just hired a new pitching coach who is all about development and analytics.

 

If he can't turn at least one of those guys into a real starter, then the team has problems and he might not be the right guy. Personally, I think it'd be a travesty if Lewis and Romero don't turn into legit starters.

 

With all that said, I still hate the Twins offseason in regards to pitching. One guy. Literally one reliever and I'd feel more confident about the coming season.

[AlwaysinModeration]

That's not really fair. Aaron said he wasn't good when he wasn't good. Aaron was also one of the first people to speak up when Gibson actually became good. Some guy at BP (I think??) wrote an article about Kyle's change of approach and Aaron changed his opinion at that time, as any rational person would do.

 

And that take happened like a month after the change of approach when Gibson still had a 5-ish ERA so it wasn't hindsight at all.

Well-said. I stand corrected.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I also spoke too soon about this extension happening. MLBTradeRumors now reporting the talks went nowhere. Damn.

[AlwaysinModeration]

He wasn't good then. What were the errors in Aaron's ways?

This is actually a great question, that goes well beyond Aaron Gleeman and Kyle Gibson. There are times when players, even superstars, “aren’t good”. Some players have entire lost seasons. Some players are pedestrian in the minors before coming into their own. Some players excel in the minors only to flounder for years in the majors.

 

The question is which players are good, either right now, or soon in the future? Which ones are worth investing in, holding on to? Which ones are Cliff Lee, Aaron Hicks, Brian Dozier, while which ones are Oswaldo Arica? There are a million different paths to success in baseball, but the path is rarely Mike Trout-linear.

 

That’s why following the career of Kyle Gibson...and Byron Buxton....and Nick Gordon, and Lewis Thorpe is so interesting.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Yikes, I think you're missing the take here. Yeah, several of those guys will end up as relievers but that's the point of development, isn't it? The team just hired a new pitching coach who is all about development and analytics.

 

If he can't turn at least one of those guys into a real starter, then the team has problems and he might not be the right guy. Personally, I think it'd be a travesty if Lewis and Romero don't turn into legit starters.

 

With all that said, I still hate the Twins offseason in regards to pitching. One guy. Literally one reliever and I'd feel more confident about the coming season.

If Falvey signs a “reliever better than Gibson” and Johnson can develop a starting pitcher “better than Gibson”, the rotation might compete with Cleveland’s, which is a good place to be.

 

Still need to develop relievers. Planned attrition is a good thing.

[Vanimal46]

 

I can't help it by thinking the Twins really low balled him.

[Joe A. Preusser]

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1107084191429201922?s=19

 

I can't help it by thinking the Twins really low balled him.

Or Gibson's agent vastly overvalued him. Most likely the truth is somewhere in the middle.

[nicksaviking]

I can't help it by thinking the Twins really low balled him.

Why? Gibson sounded optimistic in his original interview, I wouldn’t think he would be if he got a low ball offer.

 

Considering Gibson’s age, I’d be really surprised if the hold up wasn’t over years, not money.

[Vanimal46]

Why? Gibson sounded optimistic in his original interview, I wouldn’t think he would be if he got a low ball offer.

 

Considering Gibson’s age, I’d be really surprised if the hold up wasn’t over years, not money.

An extensive history of low balling players in the organization... Lots of players in "discussions" and only 2 completed.

[KGB]

An extensive history of low balling players in the organization... Lots of players in "discussions" and only 2 completed.

And both that signed extensions came off disappointing seasons. Nobody on the rise has signed, so I think low balling offer sounds right.

[Joe A. Preusser]

An extensive history of low balling players in the organization... Lots of players in "discussions" and only 2 completed.

This post literally made me laugh out loud.

 

1. I want my front office driving hard bargains and making fiscally responsible signings.

 

2. Please enlighten me to this extensive history.

The current front office has only been in charge for like 3 years, hardly enough time to have developed an extensive history. If you are referring to past management regimes that is not relevent. Go back far enough and all teams barred men of color from playing. Does that mean that all teams have an extensive history of racial discrimination? And should we view their current decisions through that lens?

[cardsfan]

The Twins signed Phil Hughes and he had a very good year. So instead of playing out the contract they decided to enrich him ignoring his on and off again history. The Twins were going to spend.

 

Then what happened? Let Kyle Gibson pitch out his final year and you will likely find others like him that you can risk millions on. He will have another 5 ERA in the near future and a higher WHIP than 1.4.

 

You need a pipeline of developing pitchers. Just think if you get pinned down for 5 years and have to eat $40 million.

[Vanimal46]

This post literally made me laugh out loud.

 

1. I want my front office driving hard bargains and making fiscally responsible signings.

 

2. Please enlighten me to this extensive history.

The current front office has only been in charge for like 3 years, hardly enough time to have developed an extensive history. If you are referring to past management regimes that is not relevent. Go back far enough and all teams barred men of color from playing. Does that mean that all teams have an extensive history of racial discrimination? And should we view their current decisions through that lens?

Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson this year, Byron Buxton last year all have turned down extensions. Eddie Rosario in discussions that have led no where.

 

The list is extensive with the past regime but evidently that can't be used in this discussion.

 

Nice straw man at the end.

[Joe A. Preusser]

The Twins signed Phil Hughes and he had a very good year. So instead of playing out the contract they decided to enrich him ignoring his on and off again history. The Twins were going to spend.

Then what happened? Let Kyle Gibson pitch out his final year and you will likely find others like him that you can risk millions on. He will have another 5 ERA in the near future and a higher WHIP than 1.4.

You need a pipeline of developing pitchers. Just think if you get pinned down for 5 years and have to eat $40 million.

I do think that at some point some calculated risk is acceptable. Some risk is built into the cost of doing good, sound business. I put Gibson in the 4/48 range. Who knows how the FO or Gibby's agents value him? Not me, I work in retail.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson this year, Byron Buxton last year all have turned down extensions. Eddie Rosario in discussions that have led no where.

The list is extensive with the past regime but evidently that can't be used in this discussion.

Nice straw man at the end.

The only straw man I see is the idea that while most of the decision makers and philosophies have changed a great deal, we can divine current motivations from the past. That is extremely illogical. My (admittedly dramatic) example was intended to point that out.

[Doomtints]

Gibson is one of the "very slow to develop" players that defines the Twins teams of this decade. I always thought he had promise, yet I had to watch him fall on his face a few times anyway. Maybe this year is the year.

 

Wow, we have turned into caricatures from the film Major League.

[Mr. Brooks]

This post literally made me laugh out loud.

 

1. I want my front office driving hard bargains and making fiscally responsible signings.

 

2. Please enlighten me to this extensive history.

The current front office has only been in charge for like 3 years, hardly enough time to have developed an extensive history. If you are referring to past management regimes that is not relevent. Go back far enough and all teams barred men of color from playing. Does that mean that all teams have an extensive history of racial discrimination? And should we view their current decisions through that lens?

I don't agree with Vanimal that the current regime has an extensive history. But, offering Darvish a deal that didn't include an opt out was a laughable waste of time.

[cardsfan]

If Kyle Gibson is your #2 SP, I don’t think that of our starters on the roster I don’t think he would be ranked #7 on the St. Louis Cardinals. He would be behind Mikolas, Wacha, C. Martinez, A. Reyes, Flaherty, J. Gant, and a rejuvenated Wainwright who is pitching well since September. Would he be better than Dakota Hudson for the money the #8 guy?

 

That’s when I see you guys throwing out $50 million for 4 years I think where has been your draft and pitching development and luck? Who is going to make a SP impact in future?

 

We, also, have Ryan Helsley, maybe Ponce deLeon, and Austin Gomber. Then maybe Jordan Hicks moving from the bullpen.

[Mr. Brooks]

If Kyle Gibson is your #2 SP, I don’t think that of our starters on the roster I don’t think he would be ranked #7 on the St. Louis Cardinals. He would be behind Mikolas, Wacha, C. Martinez, A. Reyes, Flaherty, J. Gant, and a rejuvenated Wainwright who is pitching well since September. Would he be better than Dakota Hudson for the money the #8 guy?

 

That’s when I see you guys throwing out $50 million for 4 years I think where has been your draft and pitching development and luck? Who is going to make a SP impact in future?

 

We, also, have Ryan Helsley, maybe Ponce deLeon, and Austin Gomber. Then maybe Jordan Hicks moving from the bullpen.

That depends on whether you believe he made an actual adjustment that made him a better pitcher going forward.

If he is 2018 Gibson going forward than he's better than most of those guys you list.

[cardsfan]

I don't agree with Vanimal that the current regime has an extensive history. But, offering Darvish a deal that didn't include an opt out was a laughable waste of time.

Looking at Darvish and even Arrietta the rewards/risk wasn’t worth the amount being offered. The poor Dodgers extending Keyshawn with all of the time he will spend on the DL.

[Mr. Brooks]

Looking at Darvish and even Arrietta the rewards/risk wasn’t worth the amount being offered. The poor Dodgers extending Keyshawn with all of the time he will spend on the DL.

Not even close to the point.

It doesn't matter how much you think a player is "worth". If you make an offer that has zero chance of being accepted, then it's a waste of time.

[cardsfan]

 

That depends on whether you believe he made an actual adjustment that made him a better pitcher going forward.

If he is 2018 Gibson going forward than he's better than most of those guys you list.

 

 

That depends on whether you believe he made an actual adjustment that made him a better pitcher going forward.

If he is 2018 Gibson going forward than he's better than most of those guys you list.

 

That depends on whether you believe he made an actual adjustment that made him a better pitcher going forward.

If he is 2018 Gibson going forward than he's better than most of those guys you list.

If there are no injuries to anyone, I wouldn’t trade any of our pitchers except Ponce de Leon (However you spell it) if I didn’t take account for the money. Before winning his last 3 starts the Twins were 12-17 when he was on the mound and a pitching record of 7-13. Win 3 games only 2 were QS and now you are going to get a big contract. Wow. You must not have any future prospects for awhile.

 

Pitching is tough to predict with the injuries. The last 4 out of 5 long term pitching contracts of our Cardinal pitchers miss most of one or more seasons, but, we manage to get mostly good value out of them as well as having to see Wacha and Lynn miss time when they were under team control. We signed so-so Mike Leake and had to deal him off.

[cardsfan]

Not even close to the point.

It doesn't matter how much you think a player is "worth". If you make an offer that has zero chance of being accepted, then it's a waste of time.

Kershaw, auto-correct. One could see that they were trending down or were getting injured.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Not even close to the point.

It doesn't matter how much you think a player is "worth". If you make an offer that has zero chance of being accepted, then it's a waste of time.

Not sure how you can confidently say the offer had zero chance of being accepted. Do you know something all the rest of us do not? Do you have inside information only Darvish's agent or our FO has?

 

I would counter with the idea that the best way to negotiate contracts is to make uour own rigerous assessment of the "worth" that player would provide to you, and then make a competitive offer based on that. If, ultimately, Darvish or his agents would say no, so be it. At that point they want more than we evaluate his "worth" to be to us, and I happily let him go elswhere. To this point in their tenure, I think our front office has evaluated this very well. If we are making only low ball offers, offers there is no chance of the player accepting, then how have we signed so many free agents the past 3 years? Wouldnt they all just tell us to go to hell?

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

If Kyle Gibson is your #2 SP, I don’t think that of our starters on the roster I don’t think he would be ranked #7 on the St. Louis Cardinals. He would be behind Mikolas, Wacha, C. Martinez, A. Reyes, Flaherty, J. Gant, and a rejuvenated Wainwright who is pitching well since September. Would he be better than Dakota Hudson for the money the #8 guy?

That’s when I see you guys throwing out $50 million for 4 years I think where has been your draft and pitching development and luck? Who is going to make a SP impact in future?

We, also, have Ryan Helsley, maybe Ponce deLeon, and Austin Gomber. Then maybe Jordan Hicks moving from the bullpen.

Is there a reason why anyone cares about Cardinal pitchers?

[cardsfan]

Is there a reason why anyone cares about Cardinal pitchers?

Yes, because looking at Kyle Gibson’s 2018 record before he won his last 3 games I couldn’t believe they were thinking multi-year multi-millions for someone who’s team record at that point was 12-17 when he was pitching in mid-September. No matter how you spin it I doubt you could call him near elite. Maybe his team will win 18 out of 30 and he will get some offers, but, I doubt it and still think you will regret the contract for most part.

 

I chose the Cardinals because they have 9 starters whom you wouldn’t trade for Kyle Gibson. BTW, I warned about Lance Lynn at best a .500 pitcher who always needed one more pitch. His team lost the last 8 of his 9 starts in 2017. There was speculation he was going to get a $100 million like injury prone Darvish did.

[Mr. Brooks]

If there are no injuries to anyone, I wouldn’t trade any of our pitchers except Ponce de Leon (However you spell it) if I didn’t take account for the money. Before winning his last 3 starts the Twins were 12-17 when he was on the mound and a pitching record of 7-13. Win 3 games only 2 were QS and now you are going to get a big contract. Wow. You must not have any future prospects for awhile.

 

Pitching is tough to predict with the injuries. The last 4 out of 5 long term pitching contracts of our Cardinal pitchers miss most of one or more seasons, but, we manage to get mostly good value out of them as well as having to see Wacha and Lynn miss time when they were under team control. We signed so-so Mike Leake and had to deal him off.

I'm struggling to figure out what the teams w/l record has to do with what we are discussing. I thought this was a team game.

[Mr. Brooks]

Not sure how you can confidently say the offer had zero chance of being accepted. Do you know something all the rest of us do not? Do you have inside information only Darvish's agent or our FO has?

 

I would counter with the idea that the best way to negotiate contracts is to make uour own rigerous assessment of the "worth" that player would provide to you, and then make a competitive offer based on that. If, ultimately, Darvish or his agents would say no, so be it. At that point they want more than we evaluate his "worth" to be to us, and I happily let him go elswhere. To this point in their tenure, I think our front office has evaluated this very well. If we are making only low ball offers, offers there is no chance of the player accepting, then how have we signed so many free agents the past 3 years? Wouldnt they all just tell us to go to hell?

He wasn't going to sign without a player opt out. Our offer didn't include an opt out, Falvine confirmed as much.

 

Where did I suggest or imply that they are consistently making low ball offers? I pointed to one time they did, nothing more.

[cardsfan]

I'm struggling to figure out what the teams w/l record has to do with what we are discussing. I thought this was a team game.

I looked at his pitching logs. Over a whole season unless the pitcher is very unlucky his team’s record when starting is a pretty good measure especially over 28+ starts unless he has some bawdy ERA. The Twins averaged about 4.5 runs a game so it wasn’t lack of run support. His ERA was good. Seems like a .500 pitcher.