Twins and Gibson Discussion and Extension

[nicksaviking]

http://www.startribune.com/kyle-gibson-twins-talking-bigger-contract-again-after-failing-to-agree-on-long-term-deal-earlier/507159692/

 

Interesting to see how this plays out. I'd have to think an extension is likely since the Twins hadn't let the other extension talks leak until after they were nearly complete, or declined.

 

Though in this case it does appear that Gibson was the one disclosing the information.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I think sometimes you just have to believe that a player has 'turned the corner'. Gibson finished 2017 strong and had a good 2018. He may not be a #1 starter, but he's looking pretty good for a stretch of time that should not be ignored.

[NumberThree]

 

I think sometimes you just have to believe that a player has 'turned the corner'. Gibson finished 2017 strong and had a good 2018. He may not be a #1 starter, but he's looking pretty good for a stretch of time that should not be ignored.

And despite the late start to ST, he's looking decent. I'm hopeful.

[nicksaviking]

It's funny, I was the rare bird defending Gibson right after the Twins hired Falvey. I said he had the size and the repertoire similar to Cleveland's starters and I guessed the new front office would tell him to stop intentionally putting the ball in play and start striking guys out with his good velocity and breaking pitches. It was like one of the only baseball "calls" I've ever gotten right. I'm almost always wrong with these kinds of things.

 

But then he went and got old (for a starting pitcher) and now I'm torn about keeping a guy whom I should otherwise be particularly fond of..  

[rdehring]

I have been a Gibson fan for a long time and am not worried about his age.  Expect the length of the contract may be one of the stickier parts of the negotiation.

 

Enough talking, just get it done!!

 

 

[cardsfan]

How much money do you think Kyle Gibson should earn? He was 7-13 before winning his last 3 starts in 2018. His ERA and WHIP were horrible in 2017 over 5 and 1.5 WHIP. Could you see giving him $75 million for 5 years for this mediocrity.

[nicksaviking]

 

How much money do you think Kyle Gibson should earn? He was 7-13 before winning his last 3 starts in 2018. His ERA and WHIP were horrible in 2017 over 5 and 1.5 WHIP. Could you see giving him $75 million for 5 years for this mediocrity.

 

That's too many years. I don't care much about the money.

 

To be fair to Kyle though, he should probably most be judged on what he did after getting recalled in August of 2017. Prior to that he was still trying to do the sinkerball bit, after getting demoted he clearly changed his approach and started using his breaking pitches to get more swings and misses. He has been really consistent the past year and a half.

 

I guess I also don't really care how many Wins he got.

[Post-Concussive Blues]

3 years, $33 million

[blindeke]

He's 31... 

[KGB]

3 years, $33 million

I believe around this is the offer. But Lance Lynn getting 3/30, I can't see Gibson signing.

[Joe A. Preusser]

I would give him 4/48 extension and not think twice about it. I bet he would take it too.

 

If you wait until after the year and he has another really good season that moves to 4/60.

[cardsfan]

I would give him 4/48 extension and not think twice about it. I bet he would take it too.

If you wait until after the year and he has another really good season that moves to 4/60.

I can’t see a team getting good value for 4 years 60 million. I feel sorry for who signed Lance Lynn though you might win half his games.

[ChrisKnutson]

Anything more than a qualifying offer will be a mistake, and I’m not even sure that’d be in the Twins best interests either...

[Kelly Vance]

 

How much money do you think Kyle Gibson should earn? He was 7-13 before winning his last 3 starts in 2018. His ERA and WHIP were horrible in 2017 over 5 and 1.5 WHIP. Could you see giving him $75 million for 5 years for this mediocrity.

Gibby was a hard luck pitcher in 2018. His teammates let him down often. He should have been 13-7

[TheLeviathan]

I don't see why he would take 4/48.  JA Happ got two years and 34M, he is in that range.

[wabene]

I'd sign him fo sho. No more than four years. I also think with proper coaching he changed his approach. The guy is talented and I would bet on sustained success and a lengthy prime. He has found his stride, you can see his confidence.

[yarnivek1972]

I don't see why he would take 4/48. JA Happ got two years and 34M, he is in that range.

Happ has had 0 seasons with an ERA above 4 since 2014. Gibson has had two north of 5 in that stretch. Things like that matter at the negotiating table.

 

 

No way more than 3 years. $30-$36 mil

[TheLeviathan]

 

Happ has had 0 seasons with an ERA above 4 since 2014. Gibson has had two north of 5 in that stretch. Things like that matter at the negotiating table.


No way more than 3 years. $30-$36 mil

 

I'm not saying I give him 2/34. I'm just saying his comps on the open market are far above a 4/48 deal.

[DocBauer]

I absolutely am on board with an extension. I also believe he truly did re-invent himself the last half of 2017 and it carried over through 2018. And to be honest, I'm not sure we've seen the best of Gbson yet with this new coaching staff onboard, as well as just experience. Remember, he's only 31. He should be primed for, potentially, the best 2-4 years of his career.

 

IMO, Gibson has earned a very unfair and un-deserved reputation over his career. Much like Berrios, and many/most young pitchers, you almost have to throw out his debut, 2013 in this case. He was a rookie getting his first taste of MLB, coming off TJ surgery, probably tiring, and put up bad numbers in a SEA of 51 IP. (Still better overall numbers than Berrios in situations).

 

2014 was his first full season and he missed rookie status by 1 IP. He had a nice, quality season. Other than his W-L record, he improved in virtually every category in 2015. For whatever reason, the wheels came off in 2016, as they seemed to for the entire team in that horrendous year. The wheels were still spinning the first half of 2017 before he really found himself.

 

So in short, he had 2 very solid, quality years, a pretty bad 1 1/2 season's, followed by the best 1 1/2 he's ever had. Just do the math. Numbers can be interpreted in different ways, argued and manipulated even, but they can't be denied. 3 1/2 good to very good seasons vs 1 1/2 poor seasons. And his very best have been the most recent.

 

All that being said...and I may sound like I'm contradicting myself, but I'm really not...the market has shifted and there is not a sustained pattern of success to place him in a "top of the rotation" category in regard to potential contract earnings. I believe a contract should be 3-4yrs in length, and should average out to about $14M per. I'm fine with a bump to around $15M or so. The money would be guaranteed, of course, so I'd try my best to front load the first couple of years due to future contract situations for the rest of the roster.

[nicksaviking]

I'm not saying I give him 2/34. I'm just saying his comps on the open market are far above a 4/48 deal.

His comps on the market may still get $12M per year, but no ones giving 32-year-old comp pitchers 4 year deals anymore.

[Joe A. Preusser]

I can’t see a team getting good value for 4 years 60 million. I feel sorry for who signed Lance Lynn though you might win half his games.

Gibson has been borderline elite over the past 1.5 years. Borderline to be sure, but close to elite nontheless. Lynn has not been in his class.

[TheLeviathan]

 

His comps on the market may still get $12M per year, but no ones giving 32-year-old comp pitchers 4 year deals anymore.

 

True, but again, Happ was 36 and got two years and 34M.  If you are Gibson and his agent, don't you think you can get something closer to 3/48?  

 

I think that's a more reasonable target for an extension number.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd offer 3/$39m and see where that gets me. Maybe even 3/$42 if I could frontload that $3-4m to the first year and that gets the job done.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I'd offer 3/$39m and see where that gets me. Maybe even 3/$42 if I could frontload that $3-4m to the first year and that gets the job done.

I was just about to post 3/40 when I read you post, Brock.

 

The fact that Gibson is talking about this with the press is a very good sign, he clearly wants to stay in Minnesota, so I imagine this will get done. Then everyone around here fretting that the Twins don’t have any pitching other than Berrios next year can calm down.

 

If and when he signs, I’d like to hear the Gleeman and Bonnes takes. For a lengthy period of time Aaron was in the “he’s just not good” and John was in the “he’s going to turn a corner” camps. Will Aaron admit the error of his ways?

[Mr. Brooks]

I was just about to post 3/40 when I read you post, Brock.

 

The fact that Gibson is talking about this with the press is a very good sign, he clearly wants to stay in Minnesota, so I imagine this will get done. Then everyone around here fretting that the Twins don’t have any pitching other than Berrios next year can calm down.

 

If and when he signs, I’d like to hear the Gleeman and Bonnes takes. For a lengthy period of time Aaron was in the “he’s just not good” and John was in the “he’s going to turn a corner” camps. Will Aaron admit the error of his ways?

He wasn't good then. What were the errors in Aaron's ways?

[dougd]

An article in BPro on the effects of moving the pitcher's mound back two feet by Robert Arthur notes some pitchers might get better: 

 

"Consider someone like Twins right-hander Kyle Gibson, who doesn’t have premium velocity but boasts good movement on an array of five different pitches, leading to some of the best tunneling metrics in MLB. With each now darting just a little bit more, Gibson could potentially move from average to great."

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

He wasn't good then. What were the errors in Aaron's ways?

Because Gibson is good now?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I was just about to post 3/40 when I read you post, Brock.

 

The fact that Gibson is talking about this with the press is a very good sign, he clearly wants to stay in Minnesota, so I imagine this will get done. Then everyone around here fretting that the Twins don’t have any pitching other than Berrios next year can calm down.

 

If and when he signs, I’d like to hear the Gleeman and Bonnes takes. For a lengthy period of time Aaron was in the “he’s just not good” and John was in the “he’s going to turn a corner” camps. Will Aaron admit the error of his ways?

yup, but then you still gotta find 3 more long appearance pitchers, one of which preferably better than Gibson.

[DocBauer]

yup, but then you still gotta find 3 more long appearance pitchers, one of which preferably better than Gibson.

I appreciate and like your "better than Gibson" comment.

 

However, I'm going to debate your comment, for the sake of conversation.

 

I think it's safe to say Berrios going to get better and better, and we haven't seen the best of him yet. I am also ready to go out on a limb and say we haven't seen the best of Gibson yet. Between his new-found approach and the seemingly impressive Wes Johnson, I could easily see Gibson with an overall uptick in performance. Even slight improvement could make him a legitimate #2. (I think there's little debate he is a legit #3 at this point). I am ALL IN for adding another quality, frontline SP! I just wonder if "better" is accurate. We will see, of course, how the season unfolds.

 

As to adding 3 more arms, I have a couple of hunches. Barring injury or just bad performance, I feel one of Odorizzi or Pineda will be re-signed. It's a lot easier to keep what you have rather than go out and find someone else. Secondly, I am willing to bet that by this time next season, ONE of Gonsalves, Littell, Lewis, Graterol, Romero or Mejia returning to the rotation, will emerge to fill another slot, or at least fill us with hope for an honest competition.

 

I don't think these hunches are a stretch of the imagination at all. That leaves one more spot to fill. Now THAT is interesting. With so much milb depth, is a trade made before next year, even this season? Was the FO truly brilliant in bringing Perez on board and a new home, and Johnson, tap in to his full potential?

 

Just some things to think about.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I appreciate and like your "better than Gibson" comment.

 

However, I'm going to debate your comment, for the sake of conversation.

 

I think it's safe to say Berrios going to get better and better, and we haven't seen the best of him yet. I am also ready to go out on a limb and say we haven't seen the best of Gibson yet. Between his new-found approach and the seemingly impressive Wes Johnson, I could easily see Gibson with an overall uptick in performance. Even slight improvement could make him a legitimate #2. (I think there's little debate he is a legit #3 at this point). I am ALL IN for adding another quality, frontline SP! I just wonder if "better" is accurate. We will see, of course, how the season unfolds.

 

As to adding 3 more arms, I have a couple of hunches. Barring injury or just bad performance, I feel one of Odorizzi or Pineda will be re-signed. It's a lot easier to keep what you have rather than go out and find someone else. Secondly, I am willing to bet that by this time next season, ONE of Gonsalves, Littell, Lewis, Graterol, Romero or Mejia returning to the rotation, will emerge to fill another slot, or at least fill us with hope for an honest competition.

 

I don't think these hunches are a stretch of the imagination at all. That leaves one more spot to fill. Now THAT is interesting. With so much milb depth, is a trade made before next year, even this season? Was the FO truly brilliant in bringing Perez on board and a new home, and Johnson, tap in to his full potential?

 

Just some things to think about.

if you don’t find better talent, then how do you expect to improve?

 

Agreed on “ONE of Gonsalves, Littell, Lewis, Graterol, Romero or Mejia” 100% but you to an extent need all 2/3 of them to have significant success for 4th thru 8th spots in the rotation if you don’t improve at the front of the rotation. That’s still a lot to ask for guys who several of which should IMO get converted to relievers.