2020 Presidential Election

[Badsmerf]

You can't rely on those models, because all presidents with an economy this strong have had great approval ratings. I don't believe any predictions at this point. A lot can happen to the economy between now and then.... especially worth someone that likes to mess with tariffs. The farm bubble bursting would put us in a tail spin, and doom his re-election bid. The tariffs with Mexico give the Democrats a good chance in Iowa and Wisconsin already.

[gunnarthor]

 

Scary, but probably accurate:

"In the past few weeks, analysts who have created models to predict the outcome of presidential elections have all noted that, as of right now, President Donald Trump is on track to win re-election, possibly in a landslide."

https://www.dailywire.com/news/47929/analyst-whos-predicted-presidency-correctly-last-9-ashe-schow

His approval rating is, at best, in the low 40s. The Dems can lose this but Trump can't win it. From the article you linked:
 

"These models — which are based on economic and other indicators — differ greatly from polls, which show Trump losing to perspective Democrat opponents, especially former Vice President Joe Biden."

 

As long as Dems keep to a simple message that resonates with voters - Trump is a crook, the GOP are boot lickers, they're destroying health care - they'll do fine, again.

[Mr. Brooks]

This sounds an awful lot like 2016 to me.

[Badsmerf]

This sounds an awful lot like 2016 to me.

It can't be pointed out enough that Hilary Clinton isn't running for president. No amount of baggage these candidates have amounts to what she carried into the election. This isn't 2016... Trump has not gained any support, he's only lost it.

[ewen21]

 

This sounds an awful lot like 2016 to me.

 

No amount of spin doctoring from the media is going to matter.  Approval ratings and think tanks about this stuff meant nothing last time.  I think the hatred for Trump runs so deep in some people (and in some institutions) that it is irrational.  Trumps loudest critics are hypocrites because they are as bad as he is in their own way.

 

This is the kind of thing that galvanized the public in support of Trump and it is the kind of thing, quite frankly, that will make me vote for him this time around. There are lots of people who didn't vote last election who will come out in droves to vote for Trump.  If people can't see that or conceive it then they will learn when it happens, just like they did the last time.

 

Trump is partially the by product of a hyper-sensitive, finger-wagging, politically correct academic "white intelligentsia" that has done nothing to help this country.  These are the types that will get Trump elected again.  The democrats needs to work on policy and FAST.  Biden opened his campaign with Charlottesville.  Think about that for a minute.

[gunnarthor]

 

This sounds an awful lot like 2016 to me.

I think it sounds a lot more like 2018

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It can't be pointed out enough that Hilary Clinton isn't running for president. No amount of baggage these candidates have amounts to what she carried into the election. This isn't 2016... Trump has not gained any support, he's only lost it.

True, but Sanders and Biden both bring a ton of baggage of their own, which will be played up to 11 if either get the nomination.

[TheLeviathan]

 

True, but Sanders and Biden both bring a ton of baggage of their own, which will be played up to 11 if either get the nomination.

 

I don't think the baggage they carry is even remotely comparable.

[Badsmerf]

I think it sounds a lot more like 2018

In some models the Republicans gained house seats in 2018. Shoot, that election the Democrats won by 9 points! And it could have been worse. Trump had a lot of things go his way in 2016. I'll be a lot more interested in models and polls in 12 months.

[Mr. Brooks]

His approval rating is, at best, in the low 40s. The Dems can lose this but Trump can't win it. From the article you linked:

 

"These models — which are based on economic and other indicators — differ greatly from polls, which show Trump losing to perspective Democrat opponents, especially former Vice President Joe Biden."

 

As long as Dems keep to a simple message that resonates with voters - Trump is a crook, the GOP are boot lickers, they're destroying health care - they'll do fine, again.

Trump's favorability rating on the night of the 2016 election ranged from 33-43%.

 

Trump doesn't need favorability or approval to win, he proved that 3 years ago.

 

Trump is a heavy favorite to win reelection, right now. That can, and hopefully will change. But, I'm seeing the same kind of naive complacency that I saw in 2016. Shall we bump that thread? 90% of the posters in that thread didn't believe Trump had a realistic chance to win.

[Mr. Brooks]

In some models the Republicans gained house seats in 2018. Shoot, that election the Democrats won by 9 points! And it could have been worse. Trump had a lot of things go his way in 2016. I'll be a lot more interested in models and polls in 12 months.

Most models had 2018 going pretty much exactly how it did.

[Badsmerf]

Most models had 2018 going pretty much exactly how it did.

I should clarify, there was still a chance in the models for republicans to gain seats. The polls and the models were very accurate.

[gunnarthor]

 

Trump's favorability rating on the night of the 2016 election ranged from 33-43%.

Trump doesn't need favorability or approval to win, he proved that 3 years ago.
 

Right, he needs the Dems to lose it. They nominated someone who was arguably less popular than him. That'll be the plan for the GOP again, lose the popular vote and hope the rural vote turn out in some swing states can put him over the top. If the Dems don't recognize his path to victory and don't challenge it, they deserve to lose. To his credit, Biden seems to understand this and is addressing it.

[Mr. Brooks]

Right, he needs the Dems to lose it. They nominated someone who was arguably less popular than him. That'll be the plan for the GOP again, lose the popular vote and hope the rural vote turn out in some swing states can put him over the top. If the Dems don't recognize his path to victory and don't challenge it, they deserve to lose. To his credit, Biden seems to understand this and is addressing it.

Clinton's favorability in the exact same sample of polls was 38-49%. She was not less popular than him, she was significantly more popular.

 

I agree there is a path to victory for the Dems, but as of this moment, I fear the models are correct.

[Mike Sixel]

good luck with any movement toward liberal policies....he has no climate change plan (they basically copied it from other websites), now this.

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/447023-biden-2020-campaign-confirms-he-supports-controversial-abortion-rule-report

[PseudoSABR]

 

good luck with any movement toward liberal policies....he has no climate change plan (they basically copied it from other websites), now this.

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/447023-biden-2020-campaign-confirms-he-supports-controversial-abortion-rule-report

I hope he gets exposed during the debates; low-information democrats just don't know what he stands for. 

[PseudoSABR]

 

This sounds an awful lot like 2016 to me.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

This data looks misleading to me, if you buy into the idea that presidents are at their most popular right after the inauguration (and other such things).

[Mr. Brooks]

https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1136719070198239232

Even those approval ratings that he's fallen to since his inauguration, are still even with, or better than his likeability ratings pre election.

He can be elected with approvals in the high 30's or low 40's.

[Mike Sixel]

Even those approval ratings that he's fallen to since his inauguration, are still even with, or better than his likeability ratings pre election.

He can be elected with approvals in the high 30's or low 40's.

Even if the majority of people don't vote for him, since dividing votes by state is somehow a good idea in our one national vote....

[TheLeviathan]

I think sometimes people conflate "disapprove" with "I won't vote for you".

 

I think that's a serious mistake.

[Mike Sixel]

I think sometimes people conflate "disapprove" with "I won't vote for you".

 

I think that's a serious mistake.

Agreed.

[Badsmerf]

I think sometimes people conflate "disapprove" with "I won't vote for you".

 

I think that's a serious mistake.

It won't take all of the disapproval crowd to vote against him, only a portion. He won by such a razor thin margin in those states, that losing the support of a percentage will hurt badly. I'm not calling the election today, but I think he has a tough election ahead of him. Right now he has a great economy, but if it slips he's going to get crushed.

[biggentleben]

 

It won't take all of the disapproval crowd to vote against him, only a portion. He won by such a razor thin margin in those states, that losing the support of a percentage will hurt badly. I'm not calling the election today, but I think he has a tough election ahead of him. Right now he has a great economy, but if it slips he's going to get crushed.

 

I truly believe that if his actual financial status (owing roughly $400M that will come due while he would be in his second term if he wins in 2020 that he's never made a single payment toward) would influence one of the major points of sale that his voting base had in 2016 - a tremendous businessman that was going to use his business acumen to help the country. I've had discussions with people that have completely re-examined their position on Trump when finding out that he cannot get a loan in this country due to his previous bankruptcies. Investigations that can expose that could be something to really aid Democrats on the campaign trail in 2020.

[howeda7]

 

Right, he needs the Dems to lose it. They nominated someone who was arguably less popular than him. That'll be the plan for the GOP again, lose the popular vote and hope the rural vote turn out in some swing states can put him over the top. If the Dems don't recognize his path to victory and don't challenge it, they deserve to lose. To his credit, Biden seems to understand this and is addressing it.

There's a lot not to love about Biden, age being #1 in my book. But I believe he will crush Trump in PA and MI. Probably re-take WI too. At the end of the day, that's what matters. He's not the only Dem that can do that, but he's the most likely, IMO. Heck, there polls showing him leading Trump in NC and Texas. No, I don't think he will win Texas, but Trump is vulnerable to the voters who voted for him holding their nose because they hated Hillary more and thought "$%^ it whats the worst that could happen?"

[howeda7]

 

I truly believe that if his actual financial status (owing roughly $400M that will come due while he would be in his second term if he wins in 2020 that he's never made a single payment toward) would influence one of the major points of sale that his voting base had in 2016 - a tremendous businessman that was going to use his business acumen to help the country. I've had discussions with people that have completely re-examined their position on Trump when finding out that he cannot get a loan in this country due to his previous bankruptcies. Investigations that can expose that could be something to really aid Democrats on the campaign trail in 2020.

 

The Dems fear around impeachment is so over-stated. Trump's base will be motivated no matter what they do. The independents may not agree with it, but they're not going to vote for Trump out of sympathy for being impeached or to "punish" House Dems. The bigger risk is causing their own base to stay home if they do nothing.

 

The hearings are needed because 70% of the public has no idea what the Mueller report actually said. People won't read the book, they need to see the movie.

[Mike Sixel]

Biden flips on the Hyde amendment. Good for him.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Biden flips on the Hyde amendment. Good for him.

I guess good for him.  Although I agree with the outcome of his flipping, this does suggest there is no there-there with Biden, and he's something of an affable husk of democratic establishment politics.

[Mike Sixel]

I guess good for him. Although I agree with the outcome of his flipping, this does suggest there is no there-there with Biden, and he's something of an affable husk of democratic establishment politics.

As long as he eventually does the right things if elected, I'm not surei care about the path to get there. Within reason....

[TheLeviathan]

We don't want politicians to change wrong views?  I'm cynical he did this for good reasons, but I sorta want people in office willing to listen.

 

I like a lot of what AOC stands for, but I also hope she listens that some of her policies are not well designed.  Ditto Warren.  Ditto Mayor Pete.  

 

One of my biggest issues with the guy in office is that he doesn't listen to good reason.  I can't fault Biden for doing so, even if it was nothing more than saving political face.