2020 Presidential Election

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And that our origin story is ESPN? Jesus, give me another. I left ESPN for DTFC when I found it, and actually learned about BYTO from a fantasy league I was in from my ESPN days.  But all roads lead here.  It's also interesting to see us all grow. I was college aged when I first encountered the ESPN community and here I am post 40. (I actually worry about keeping track of you all (even Levi).)

I'm 42 (Douglas Adams, yarrrrr). I was also at the tail end of college when I found the ESPN board. It's kind of bonkers to think about that. I still remember my first post in 1999, wondering why no one attended games in the Metrodome because I was so desperate to see the Twins play a live game at home but could not because I lived in SoCal.

 

Then I taught myself how to code at and decided it would be fun to launch a baseball forum. And that was BYTO, a name I basically chose on a lark.

[biggentleben]

I won't get into the whole story, but my housemate when Klobuchar ran the first time ended up being the baseball card in the spokes of her tires. She used the case against him, which was completely wrong and ended up nearly completely thrown out on appeal, as a launching pad in her campaign, specifically as a champion for women. I was one of few very credible witnesses to the events in question, and I was not once called in the initial case. I ended up in South Dakota by the time the appeal came around, and my recorded testimony was a big chunk of what got the case overturned. She had my initial statement, which showed her case to be bunk, and still chose to pursue the case due to the publicity of his job at the time, a career he loved and ended up dismissed from. She pursued the case with an agenda, suppressing witness statements that had no business being suppressed (she flat-out lied about the nature of our relationship, which REALLY irked me), and used it to get her first election, but when it came up for appeal, she didn't appear once.

[biggentleben]

 

I'm 42 (Douglas Adams, yarrrrr). I was also at the tail end of college when I found the ESPN board. It's kind of bonkers to think about that. I still remember my first post in 1999, wondering why no one attended games in the Metrodome because I was so desperate to see the Twins play a live game at home but could not because I lived in SoCal.

 

Then I taught myself how to code at and decided it would be fun to launch a baseball forum. And that was BYTO, a name I basically chose on a lark.

 

My first venture onto ESPN was on the Braves board my freshman year of college. By the time BYTO came about, I had done a tour as a moderator on the Braves board. I remember ruffling plenty of feathers as I was a Braves fan, but then I'd discuss being at a ton of Twins games (hey, it was the late 90s/early 2000s...$5 on a Wednesday got you a ticket and 3 hot dogs!) and generally just talked baseball, and I've been the token NL guy in the room for nearly 20 years now! That 4 number begins my age this fall...

[biggentleben]

 

If the information you have is credible then you should be able to post it here.
If you'll only do it privately, then it's pretty lame to hit and run with stuff like this.

 

I didn't really hit and run. I posted and was around for quite a while, but then I did have to serve my children supper and put them to bed, so I'm just getting back on here after doing that and getting some writing done and deciding who I'm having the Twins pick in my mock draft going up today...

[ashbury]

 

I won't get into the whole story, but my housemate when Klobuchar ran the first time ended up being the baseball card in the spokes of her tires. She used the case against him, which was completely wrong and ended up nearly completely thrown out on appeal, as a launching pad in her campaign, specifically as a champion for women. I was one of few very credible witnesses to the events in question, and I was not once called in the initial case. I ended up in South Dakota by the time the appeal came around, and my recorded testimony was a big chunk of what got the case overturned. She had my initial statement, which showed her case to be bunk, and still chose to pursue the case due to the publicity of his job at the time, a career he loved and ended up dismissed from. She pursued the case with an agenda, suppressing witness statements that had no business being suppressed (she flat-out lied about the nature of our relationship, which REALLY irked me), and used it to get her first election, but when it came up for appeal, she didn't appear once.

So who's the driving force behind her presidential aspirations? Big Lutefisk?

[biggentleben]

 

So who's the driving force behind her presidential aspirations? Big Lutefisk?

 

Removal of an orange from a white home. Pretty much the motivation for everyone running. I cannot fault her running as she's built some notoriety in DC, but it doesn't mean it changes my personal opinion of my ability to vote for her.

[Vanimal46]

Lol, I was already ‘old’ when I started lurking on the ESPN boards and then BYTO. It’s been a pleasure watching you all grow up!

I know the rules... You turn 30 for a day then you're 29 for the rest of your life!

 

I turn 29 this year... I'm non-prospect status now. Just a career minor leaguer.

[gunnarthor]

Man, Biden gets it.

 

"While his rivals are chasing the Democratic nomination, Biden plans to pursue a mission focused on Donald Trump. ... Biden offered an economic message tailored for western Pennsylvania, where he praised organized labor. ... Biden’s decision to base his campaign in Philadelphia — and kick it off with a rally at the other end of the state in Pittsburgh — underscore his connection to Pennsylvania, a key industrial swing state Trump unexpectedly captured in 2016."

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/29/joe-biden-2020-announcement-1292429

 

[ashbury]

Man, Biden gets it.

 

"While his rivals are chasing the Democratic nomination, Biden plans to pursue a mission focused on Donald Trump. ... Biden offered an economic message tailored for western Pennsylvania, where he praised organized labor. ... Biden’s decision to base his campaign in Philadelphia — and kick it off with a rally at the other end of the state in Pittsburgh — underscore his connection to Pennsylvania, a key industrial swing state Trump unexpectedly captured in 2016."

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/29/joe-biden-2020-announcement-1292429

He'll be quite an asset on the campaign trail... campaigning on someone else's behalf.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Man, Biden gets it.

 

"While his rivals are chasing the Democratic nomination, Biden plans to pursue a mission focused on Donald Trump. ... Biden offered an economic message tailored for western Pennsylvania, where he praised organized labor. ... Biden’s decision to base his campaign in Philadelphia — and kick it off with a rally at the other end of the state in Pittsburgh — underscore his connection to Pennsylvania, a key industrial swing state Trump unexpectedly captured in 2016."

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/29/joe-biden-2020-announcement-1292429

I'm sorry that's cynicism, not leadership.  Praising unions is easy and obvious, and how many union members are there anyways.  The Blue Dog democrats don't exist anymore.  This is the play of an obviously 80 year old man, who is cast in the institutions and mores that brought him to power.

 

And praise isn't policy. 

 

“Electability is important,” he said. “And it’s probably more important than, say, our differences on health care. The Democrats all want to get to the same place on health care. But you have to win to do that.”

 

Biden is awful.  This kind of cynicism might actually lose the ticket.  Electability (yes for different reasons) was what made Clinton arrogant and why people voted for her in the primaries; they were wrong then, and they are wrong now.

 

Running against Trump as opposed to being an actual leader (on policy etc.) is the same reason why some of the same people oppose impeachment.  I don't get it. The risk aversion makes me ill.

[TheLeviathan]

Reading Psuedo makes me convinced I should start accepting four more years of Trump.

 

Or moving to New Zealand.  They seem like fun folks.

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm sorry that's cynicism, not leadership.  Praising unions is easy and obvious, and how many union members are there anyways.  The Blue Dog democrats don't exist anymore.  This is the play of an obviously 80 year old man, who is cast in the institutions and mores that brought him to power.

 

 

 

Running against Trump as opposed to being an actual leader (on policy etc.) is the same reason why some of the same people oppose impeachment.  I don't get it. The risk aversion makes me ill.

I think you and I see this differently. As I see it, we have two generalized options

 

1) Run on policies

2) Run against Trump

 

Either option also requires the candidate to confront the electoral college and winning states that Clinton lost.

 

#2 is the winning strategy and Biden gets it. He's running against Trump now in the rust belt where we need to get voters back. Bernie has been running longer and is spending his time in Iowa, NH and SC - 11 rallies in those three states since the new year as opposed to one in PA, none in MI, one in WI. If the candidates are going to ignore those states again, we'll lose.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think you and I see this differently. As I see it, we have two generalized options

 

1) Run on policies

2) Run against Trump

 

Either option also requires the candidate to confront the electoral college and winning states that Clinton lost.

 

#2 is the winning strategy and Biden gets it. He's running against Trump now in the rust belt where we need to get voters back. Bernie has been running longer and is spending his time in Iowa, NH and SC - 11 rallies in those three states since the new year as opposed to one in PA, none in MI, one in WI. If the candidates are going to ignore those states again, we'll lose.

 

I'm with you that he's targeting the right people to win.  He may just be doing that too soon.  You still have to win the primary, but it's good to sow your oats in the places that matter most too.

 

The idea that policy matters to people is just poppycock.  Trump didn't have a single discernible "policy" and he won election.  Hell, I don't remember Obama running on specific policies either.  Running on specifics of your policies is walking into a trap.  People don't want the details, they want you to speak to the soul of their concerns.

 

The minutiae of policy does not do that.  Liberals keep thinking you change what voters want with bold behavior.  That you can manipulate them by doing the right thing and showing them that they should want something but they just don't know it yet.

 

Voters have never, and probably will never, work that way.  To change what they want requires a long game.  In the short game of an election you have to speak to them, not do what you want to do and hope they come to you.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Reading Psuedo makes me convinced I should start accepting four more years of Trump.

 

Or moving to New Zealand.  They seem like fun folks.

And you're the bastion of hope! **** your insults bro.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I think you and I see this differently. As I see it, we have two generalized options

 

1) Run on policies

2) Run against Trump

 

Either option also requires the candidate to confront the electoral college and winning states that Clinton lost.

 

#2 is the winning strategy and Biden gets it. He's running against Trump now in the rust belt where we need to get voters back. Bernie has been running longer and is spending his time in Iowa, NH and SC - 11 rallies in those three states since the new year as opposed to one in PA, none in MI, one in WI. If the candidates are going to ignore those states again, we'll lose.

Run against Trump is the leaderless crap that happened in 2016 that Clinton bet on.  Biden is a better candidate than her, but not by much with the touchy feely Anita Hill thing, that will turn women off in droves. 

 

We can't disagree more.  People desire leadership, not anti-another leader.  We have fundamental disagreements about how to reach rust belt/rural people. You seem pretty rooted, and so am I.  Let's agree to disagree, and take solace that we'll both vote for the Democratic nominee.

[Badsmerf]

I liked some of Biden's speech. Problem is, appealing to unions and propping unions up isn't going to win a lot of votes. It likely won't lose the votes he wants either. I question his speak appeal to people of color, women, and the liberal wing. I like that Trump is so scared of him, and hope he continues to try to take him on. Biden is a much better politician, and will make Trump look bad for the next 1.5+ years. Has there ever been a vice president nominated twice?

[ewen21]

I liked some of Biden's speech. Problem is, appealing to unions and propping unions up isn't going to win a lot of votes. It likely won't lose the votes he wants either. I question his speak appeal to people of color, women, and the liberal wing. I like that Trump is so scared of him, and hope he continues to try to take him on. Biden is a much better politician, and will make Trump look bad for the next 1.5+ years. Has there ever been a vice president nominated twice?

First I heard of Biden was he had to bow out of the 1988 or 1992 race because he'd plagerized from Kennedy speeches. If he got the nomination Trump would mop the floor with him.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I liked some of Biden's speech. Problem is, appealing to unions and propping unions up isn't going to win a lot of votes. It likely won't lose the votes he wants either. I question his speak appeal to people of color, women, and the liberal wing. I like that Trump is so scared of him, and hope he continues to try to take him on. Biden is a much better politician, and will make Trump look bad for the next 1.5+ years. Has there ever been a vice president nominated twice?

 

What Biden does is make sure you don't lose voters.  And you get some back from Trump.  I liked this article and a number of the links connected to it because it lays out the pros and cons pretty well.

 

We're going to find out his appeal in the primaries and if there are red flags than he should be dismissed.  What I fear is that there is a vocal part of the left that is ignoring data and evidence of what's best to beat Trump to dismiss him before we find out.  I want the primaries to be a beta test on Warren, Sanders, Biden, Harris, etc.  I just hope people listen to the voters.

[Badsmerf]

First I heard of Biden was he had to bow out of the 1988 or 1992 race because he'd plagerized from Kennedy speeches. If he got the nomination Trump would mop the floor with him.

I really find that hard to believe since Trump is already down 8 points in polls to Biden... and it will only get worse as disenfranchised Republicans identify with Biden's message.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Biden's message.

Which is?

 

(Not Trump! But also not Hillary! And also not Bernie!)

[PseudoSABR]

 

First I heard of Biden was he had to bow out of the 1988 or 1992 race because he'd plagerized from Kennedy speeches. If he got the nomination Trump would mop the floor with him.

In your mind, who, among the Democrats, has the best chance to beat Trump? And who do you believe has the most appeal to conservative/conservative-moderates? Serious question.

[Badsmerf]

Which is?

 

(Not Trump! But also not Hillary! And also not Bernie!)

Yes. Yes. Yes. And an economic, and social message moderate republicans won't be scared of. Still think he is part of the establishment, but his appeal is real. Can't deny that.

[TheLeviathan]

Trump literally won on nothing more than racism and "Not Hillary"

 

It marvels me how much people over-estimate the thought voters put into voting.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Yes. Yes. Yes. And an economic, and social message moderate republicans won't be scared of. Still think he is part of the establishment, but his appeal is real. Can't deny that.

Bleh.  I marvel at the society that people want to build. 

 

His appeal, while legitimate, is only to people over 40, and likely over 50.   

 

I think any of the Democrats can win, but he would be a monumental set back as far as I'm concerned. 

[PseudoSABR]

 

 

Trump literally won on nothing more than racism and "Not Hillary"

 

It marvels me how much people over-estimate the thought voters put into voting.

Hillary literally ran on "Not Trump" and lost.

 

Trump was anti-Hillary plus populism (and yes part of that message was racism), but he was advocating an actually message (MAGA) as BS as it was.   Hillary had no message.  But whatever, I'm sure it will work for good guy Joe this time.

[ashbury]

Hillary literally ran on "Not Trump" and lost

Concur. August 25 2016:

"My original plan for this visit was to focus on our agenda to help small businesses and entrepreneurs ... But today, I want to address something I hear from Americans all over our country. Everywhere I go, people tell me how concerned they are by the divisive rhetoric coming from my opponent in this election. ..."

 

I'm going to chalk it up to incredibly bad advice from all the consultants pulling this way and that. Because, at her concession speech in November, suddenly there was the woman who sufficient people might have voted for.

[Badsmerf]

Bleh. I marvel at the society that people want to build.

 

His appeal, while legitimate, is only to people over 40, and likely over 50.

 

I think any of the Democrats can win, but he would be a monumental set back as far as I'm concerned.

I agree. I'm no fan of Biden and think many of the field can beat Trump. Also, that segment of the population is who voted hard for Trump. Take a portion of them and Biden crushes Trump.

[ewen21]

In your mind, who, among the Democrats, has the best chance to beat Trump? And who do you believe has the most appeal to conservative/conservative-moderates? Serious question.

I think someone who has not yet thrown their hat in the ring, probably a moderate, can knock off Trump

[Musk21]

3 new polls out today...All showing a Biden bump. I know, WHO CAN TRUST POLLS AFTER '16?!. But what other barometer do we have?

 

Quinnipiac - https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2617

 

Biden 38%

Warren 12%

Sanders 11%

Buttigieg 10%

Harris 8%

O’Rourke 5%

Booker 2%

 

 

CNN - https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/30/politics/cnn-poll-2020-biden-announcement-bounce/index.html

 

Biden 39% (+11% over last month)

Sanders 15% (-4)

Warren 8% (+1)

Buttigieg 7% (+6)

O’Rourke 6% (-7)

Harris 5% (-7)

Booker/Gabbard/Klobuchar 2%

 

 

Morning Consult - https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

 

Biden 36% (+6 from last week)

Sanders 22% (-2)

Warren 9% (+2)

Buttigieg 8% (-1)

Harris 7% (-1)

O’Rourke 5% (-1)

Booker 3% (-1)

Klobuchar 2% (—)

Yang 2% (—)

[ewen21]

I really find that hard to believe since Trump is already down 8 points in polls to Biden... and it will only get worse as disenfranchised Republicans identify with Biden's message.

That's sounds naive considering what went down last time