Article: New Hires, New Tech Might Give Twins One of MLB's Best Player Development Systems

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The tricky part is that other teams are doing these kinds of things now too -- maybe not every team is doing the exact same things, but most are trying things in these areas.

 

Not that it's bad that we're doing them, of course -- just that it's not as easy to gain a competitive advantage from doing them now, as it would have been, say, 10 years ago.

yeah, and I think we were a bit behind the times in that capacity, so I think this is good... I could see that showing a change over the next couple seasons of some of our busts who suddenly start living up to their talent... one could hope. 

[ashbury]

I think the goal is that for the young guys, it might mean they are ready in 3 years, rather than 4 or 5, or never. It may also give the coaches and FO an opportunity to discover sooner who needs to be cut or traded. 

Talent development, and talent evaluation. Two separate issues and yet joined at the hip.

[sjp]

Just a little nit about the details on the spring complex. A quick Google map view of the area would show there are four full size practice fields plus two infield only practice fields. The second infield one, next to the minor league batting cages, was converted from all sand to turf for this year. In addition there is another full field as part of the player academy on the south side of the dormitory facility. The academy field is the only field other than Hammond field with a scoreboard and real outfield walls that aren't just chain-link fence. There is also the fenced off conditioning hill to the east of the minor league locker rooms that built a few years ago. The overall complex also includes four softball fields that are not used by the Twins.

 

At times during the spring all of the fields are in use. Now that the minor league camp is also in full swing their are games on some of the fields in the afternoons.

[Jim Hahn]

I found it interesting that hitting off a tee is being de-emphasized. On the MLB Network, many former major leaguers emphasize the value of hitting off a tee when doing cage work. I wonder if some the new ideas are still in the experimental stage, and we will see things change, perhaps dramatically again, over the next year or so.

 

This was an interesting article. I do agree, that buy in from the players is most important. It does seem that we are quite a ways removed from the see the ball, hit the ball philosophy of Tony Oliva. (I am not implying that there wasn't more to Tony's hitting philosophy than that.)

[Parker Hageman]

 

Check in when the season begins and other teams with their own coaches and their own systems meet our system.  A wonderful garage does not make a great car.

 

how bout now?

[Mike Sixel]

how bout now?

Hard to say. I'm not sure how we would judge this. Other than Arreaz, not much help has come this year. Yet. I suppose we could see if the twins get more risers in rankings?

[SwainZag]

 

Hard to say. I'm not sure how we would judge this. Other than Arreaz, not much help has come this year. Yet. I suppose we could see if the twins get more risers in rankings?

 

Outside of Romero and possibly Gordon, were we expecting much help this year?  Does Garver not count?  He's having quite the breakout season. How about Adrianza?  he has been around but he has had quite the breakout.  The rest of the offense haven't really given anyone else an opportunity to even get AB's.

 

I'll agree with you on the pitching, a lot of guys had had chances and no one has really stuck.  We have seen some stuff from Smeltzer, Thorpe has shown some promise.  Most Twins prospects were at the lower levels coming into this year, that has to be taken into account.  

 

Next season is one to watch for break out players with so many talents being in AA and above.

[Mike Sixel]

Right, so not sure how we can judge the development process at all yet.

[Parker Hageman]

 

Right, so not sure how we can judge the development process at all yet.

 

I would point to Garver, Kepler, Buxton (when healthy) and Sano as big time recipients of the development system. The work from this spring is a big reason why they are performing better in 2019. 

 

Ok, how about this:

 

1. Minor league system-wide the Twins pitchers have gone from 8.5 K/9 in 2018 to 9.6 K/9 in 2019. 

2. They have hit 603 home runs so far in 2019 compared to 506 in total in 2018. 

3. Ok, but the juiced balls at triple-A, right? In AA, the Blue Wahoos have hit 121 home runs so far whereas the Lookouts hit 107 in 2019. (By the way, Wahoos hitting coach Matt Borgschulte might be one of the most positive influences for offense at any level.)

4. If you remove the juiced ball effect at Rochester, the system as a whole is allowing far fewer home runs. 

 

If there was anything the Twins didn't do, it's hit home runs and strike hitters out. With the new personnel and direction, that script has been flipped. 

 

I would also point to the development of Lewin Diaz (again, Borgy was hugely influential in getting him to hit like he did) and that gave the Twins the ability to trade for Sergio Romo and Chris Vallimont. That's big value from someone who was starting to become an afterthought.

 

I get that you probably want to point to one player and say that's a player that was developed by the new system but that's not how this works. It's incremental improvements in small areas. The end goal is to be able to cultivate few more players out of that system. 

 

It's a process but you can see some of the early fruits. 

[Squirrel]

 

I would point to Garver, Kepler, Buxton (when healthy) and Sano as big time recipients of the development system. The work from this spring is a big reason why they are performing better in 2019. 

 

Ok, how about this:

 

1. Minor league system-wide the Twins pitchers have gone from 8.8 K/9 in 2018 to 9.6 K/9 in 2019. 

2. They have hit 603 home runs so far in 2019 compared to 506 in total in 2018. 

3. Ok, but the juiced balls at triple-A, right? In AA, the Blue Wahoos have hit 121 home runs so far whereas the Lookouts hit 107 in 2019. (By the way, Wahoos hitting coach Matt Borgschulte might be one of the most positive influences for offense at any level.)

4. If you remove the juiced ball effect at Rochester, the system as a whole is allowing far fewer home runs. 

 

If there was anything the Twins didn't do, it's hit home runs and strike hitters out. With the new personnel and direction, that script has been flipped. 

 

I would also point to the development of Lewin Diaz (again, Borgy was hugely influential in getting him to hit like he did) and that gave the Twins the ability to trade for Sergio Romo and Chris Vallimont. That's big value from someone who was starting to become an afterthought.

 

I get that you probably want to point to one player and say that's a player that was developed by the new system but that's not how this works. It's incremental improvements in small areas. The end goal is to be able to cultivate few more players out of that system. 

 

It's a process but you can see some of the early fruits. 

Thank you for spelling it out like this! It's easy to grumble because the results aren't exactly what you want ... but this shows we are moving forward, in the right direction.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't want to point to one player. It could be that they are drafting better hitters....

 

I mean, they took power hitters early, not pitchers and not Nick Gordon. Maybe that's why there are more home runs. I am saying nothing more or less than one year doesn't tell us much at all about development in the minors.

[Parker Hageman]

 

I don't want to point to one player. It could be that they are drafting better hitters....

I mean, they took power hitters early, not pitchers and not Nick Gordon. Maybe that's why there are more home runs. I am saying nothing more or less than one year doesn't tell us much at all about development in the minors.

 

The drafting of power hitters is very evident in the amount of home runs hit at Elizabethton (69, nice), which is a mark they only hit three times in the last ten years (one of those years Rosario and Sano combined for 41 dingers). They won't hit that 80 mark from 2009 but they probably will have the 2nd highest home run total since then when the season ends in two days. 

 

Of course, Elizabethton is also striking out a hell of a lot more hitters than they ever had before (by like 2K per 9 IP over the last ten seasons). 

 

Again, you can look at the trends and absolutely see that the development program is heading in a different direction. This is the plan. 

 

 

[Parker Hageman]

[Otto von Ballpark]

1. Minor league system-wide the Twins pitchers have gone from 8.8 K/9 in 2018 to 9.6 K/9 in 2019.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with your general points, but this stat alone may not mean much without context. I just noticed the entire International League has jumped from 8.4 to 9.0 K/9 since last year!

[Parker Hageman]

 

I don't necessarily disagree with your general points, but this stat alone may not mean much without context. I just noticed the entire International League has jumped from 8.4 to 9.0 K/9 since last year!

 

The league jumped 7% while the Twins staff improved by 12%. 

 

But yes, the IL has seen the K/9 rate increase steadily over the last few years -- from 7.1 in 2015 to 8.2 in 2017 to 9.0 now. I don't know how much of that is due to training and pitching development (when you look, the league leaders are often the Rays and the Yankees) or to increased emphasis on getting the ball in the air. Probably a little of both. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

The league jumped 7% while the Twins staff improved by 12%.

 

Sure, but it would be incorrect to credit the Twins development staff with the full 12% improvement in that case, which is what your earlier post implied. And of the 5% remaining -- what are normal year-to-year rates of variation in these stats? Roster effects could be big in the minors, especially for a single affiliate, and there's always some "random" variation. After all, we wouldn't be surprised if a "true talent" 200 HR team finished a season at 210 (+5%), or 190 (-5%), even if the league rate was unchanged. (A whole org is a larger sample than a single team season, of course, but the minors are so weird I don't really know what baseline of randomness to expect, even at that large sample.)

 

Back to your original number, it appears that the entire minor leagues have jumped by +0.4 K/9 from 2018 to 2019. So Twins affiliates have still outpaced it, but it is probably misleading to cite the Twins +0.8 jump without that context. (Would be interesting to see the normal ranges of variation for organizations in this stat too.)

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/league.cgi?group=Minors&year=2019

 

Still, overall I agree there are a lot of encouraging signs, even if it's hard to quantify in places at this point in the process.

[Parker Hageman]

 

Sure, but it would be incorrect to credit the Twins development staff with the full 12% improvement in that case, which is what your earlier post implied. 

 

No, I was not crediting the development staff for the full 12%, just citing the increase above the league average as well as their big jump over the previous season. 

 

But the overall point is that these numbers are a trend (however much weight you want to put in the increase) toward that goal of more strikeouts and more home runs. This isn't an accident. This is the plan.

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

No, I was not crediting the development staff for the full 12%, just citing the increase above the league average as well as their big jump over the previous season. 

 

But the overall point is that these numbers are a trend (however much weight you want to put in the increase) toward that goal of more strikeouts and more home runs. This isn't an accident. This is the plan.

Parker, I understand that movement to a higher attack angle to elevate the ball can cause swings and misses, but that seems somewhat counter-intuitive when the narrative seems to be "get on plane" with the pitch. Being on plan earlier and longer would seem to result in less strikeouts, not more. Thoughts?

[Otto von Ballpark]

No, I was not crediting the development staff for the full 12%, just citing the increase above the league average as well as their big jump over the previous season.

 

That was referring to your earlier post, when you cited the org's +0.8 K/9 increase without any mention of the minors-wide increase.

[Parker Hageman]

 

Parker, I understand that movement to a higher attack angle to elevate the ball can cause swings and misses, but that seems somewhat counter-intuitive when the narrative seems to be "get on plane" with the pitch. Being on plan earlier and longer would seem to result in less strikeouts, not more. Thoughts?

 

How hitting is taught/directed varies wildly from org to org. Some do emphasize getting on plane earlier and have been for a while as others are just catching on to this (there was a good article from the Orioles system that talked about how their hitting philosophy). But I do think with pitcher being encouraged to throw their breaking balls more, hitters are at that level are at disadvantage. Getting on plane with a fastball is easier than getting on plane with a slider/curveball.  

[Parker Hageman]

 

That was referring to your earlier post, when you cited the org's +0.8 K/9 increase without any mention of the minors-wide increase.

 

I understand, thank you for your service.