Article: Still Free: LHP Dallas Keuchel

[Shaitan]

I'm intrigued because he's a lefty and they generally hold up better with lower velocity, etc, but after watching last year's late signings I'd be extremely hesitant.

 

 

[rdehring]

Wish him well and maybe Boras and his clients need to understand that teams aren't going overboard with expensive long-term contracts to older players.  Baseball has changed, for the better in my book.

 

Personally, I am very happy with the starting rotation the Twins have half way thru spring training...Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda and Perez.  Add Mejia in the bullpen as an immediate replacement should any of the five get injured or falter. 

 

Then there is a flock of young talent at Rochester.  Hell, the Red Wings rotation may be better than the Twins rotation was a few years ago.  Come to think of it, it very likely is.  So there are lots of arms down on the farm waiting for the chance to prove themselves on the big stage.

[cardsfan]

You see that WHIP of 1.3 in 2018 and you think .500 pitcher. Why spend multi millions? Probably why Houston isn’t shelling out $100 million. He will probably sign with someone desperate.

[darin617]

No need to overspend on him. The Twins never should have signed Perez to a major league contract and guarantee him $5M for a year. 

 

Gio Gonzalez is the pitcher that would have made more sense if they wanted to add a starter.

[Miggy's Little Helper]

 

 

Length of Ideal Contract

Frankly, the (lack of) velocity scares me. If he loses another tick or two in velocity or if he loses even a little bit of command, his productivity could drop dramatically, and quickly.

 

 

It could result in a drop in productivity.  Or he'll be a clone of Mark Buerhle.  

 

Excellent soft-tossing lefties have always existed and, even in the age of velocity, some of them can and will continue to thrive.  Given his track record, I'd be willing to bet that Keuchel is far more likely to be Mark Buerhle than Tommy Milone. 

 

I'd be willing to take up to 4 years if the price was right.  3/$50-55M would seem reasonable given the market.  A steal, really, for a team that is staring into the abyss when it comes to starting pitching depth.

 

 

 

 

[gunnarthor]

I'd be ok with a three year deal with a 4th year tapped on if he met certain inning incentives in year three. Obviously, he's a risk but the team needs more horses in the rotation and I don't see many on the horizon. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I know he has draft pick compensation tied to him but isn't there a dollar limit he has to sign for? I thought I remember seeing that last year someone (possibly Chatwood) could have signed for something like $48 million and the signing team didn't have to give up as high of a pick? Maybe I am not remembering that right.

No. The $50 mil threshold only applies to what level of comp pick his old team receives. The signing team gives up the same pick regardless.

[ahart10]

Twins have a ton of young guys coming up and little on the books going forward. Even with signing a close to $20 million per year deal enough wiggle room exists to make a mid season trade. It would be nice to have Keuchel around as an Ervin type of anchor for the rotation. 3/$50? The guy has a Cy Young in the not too distant past and a winning resume.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Plus, with a rental, they actually PICK UP a draft pick with a QO next winter rather than losing one this year.

You can't make a QO to a player you had for less than a full season. Hence why the Dodgers couldn't extend a QO to Machado this winter.

[cardsfan]

I'd be ok with a three year deal with a 4th year tapped on if he met certain inning incentives in year three. Obviously, he's a risk but the team needs more horses in the rotation and I don't see many on the horizon.

 

What about at the trade deadline? Could the Twins win out a 2 year contract? Would .500 be acceptable.

[h2oface]

I would say get him if available after the QO expires.... but we have had horrible luck with late signing of players that missed all of part of spring training. Seems they are working out, but it doesn't help much.

[pierre75275]

I would rather have Kimbrel. I think he helps this team more and has less downside.

[twinssporto]

Risk vs. Reward -

 

A one or two year signing doesn't seem to be a huge risk. You get a HISTORICALLY reliable pitcher that can give you a lot of innings and some consistency.  The potential payback for the Twins after two years looks to me like more risk than they need to take.

 

I would prefer they stick with and nurture the young arms.

[IndianaTwin]

 

You can't make a QO to a player you had for less than a full season. Hence why the Dodgers couldn't extend a QO to Machado this winter.

 

Thanks -- either didn't know that or forgot it. Both of which happen frequently.

 

But the point about not losing a pick with a rental still stands.

[Twodogs]

I don't know, I think the Twins would be better with Keuchel, but the Twins have some depth in the rotation. It's the bullpen that really worries me and with Reed getting shelled the other day again it would seem to me that the most pressing need would be Bullpen help. There is a stud out there.

[IndianaTwin]

 

Renting Rendon would likely cost you one of your top 3-5 prospects and another 1 or 2 top 10-15 type guys so that's something to take into consideration. And I believe they changed the rule and you no longer pick up draft picks for rental players, but maybe I'm wrong on that. That being said, I don't think Rendon will be available as I think the Nats want to build around him. Maybe someone like Donaldson if the Braves don't live up to expectations, though. And then you're talking much lower prospect loss as well. I think you need to take the prospect cost into account as well.

 

Yeah, I was just using Rendon because he was the only infielder on the list of the top eight or so potential free agents. My point was more about the advantage of having half the season to know what your need REALLY is (and whether one person can make a difference), rather than having to make an educated guess.

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Signing Keuchel would cost theTwins their third highest pick in the rule 4 draft as a revenue sharing receiving club.

 

Source is AZ Phil of the Cub Reporter

 

https://www.thecubreporter.com/compensation-loss-article-xx-b-qualified-player

Quote:

NOTE: Prior to the post-2017 off-season, a player had seven days to decide whether to accept a QO.

 

If a Qualified Player subsequently signs a Major League contract with another (different) MLB club on or before the day prior to the MLB Rule 4 Draft (MLB First-Year Player Draft), the player's former club (the club that lost the Qualified Player) normally will receive a compensatory draft pick in the MLB Rule 4 Draft between the 2nd & 3rd rounds (after Competitive Balance Round "B").

EXCEPTIONS: An MLB club that receives revenue sharing funds would receive a compensatory draft pick immediately after the conclusion of the 1st round (prior to Competitive Balance Round "A") - IF - the Qualified Player signs a contract worth at least $50M (the club would receive a compensatory draft pick between the 2nd & 3rd rounds and after Competitive Balance Round "B" if the Qualified Player signs a contract worth less than $50M), and an MLB club that is a Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) payor (club's payroll from the previous season exceeded the CBT threshold) would receive a draft pick between the 4th & 5th rounds.

NOTE: If more than one club receives the same type of compensatory pick, the draft order for the comp picks is the same as it is for all other rounds in that draft (clubs select in inverse order of league standings from the previous season, and in the case of two clubs finishing with the same record the previous season, league standings from two seasons back will be used to break the tie, and if the clubs are still tied, league standings from three seasons back, four seasons back, etc, will be used to break the tie).

 

If a Qualified Player signs a Major League contract with another (different) club on the day of or anytime after the MLB Rule 4 Draft, or if a Qualified Player signs a minor league contract with another (different) club and either remains in the minor leagues or is later added to that club's MLB 40-man roster, the player's new club does NOT forfeit a Rule 4 Draft pick, and the player's former club does NOT receive Rule 4 Draft pick compensation. However, MLB clubs are not permitted to sign a Qualified Player to a minor league contract just to avoid losing a draft pick.

 

An MLB club that signs a Qualified Player (not including its own Qualified Players) to a Major League contract prior to the Rule 4 Draft deadline forfeits its 2nd highest selection in the next MLB Rule 4 Draft and $500,000 is subtracted from its assigned International Signing Bonus Pool (ISBP) in the next full International Signing Period (ISP) for each Qualified Player signed.

EXCEPTIONS: An MLB club that receives revenue sharing funds would surrender its 3rd highest selection in the draft but nothing is subtracted from the club's ISBP in the next full ISP, and an MLB club that is a CBT payor (club's payroll from the previous season exceeded the CBT threshold) would forfeit its 2nd & 5th selection in the draft and have $1,000,000 subtracted from its ISBP in the next ISP for each Qualified Player signed.

NOTE: The Competitive Balance Tax threshold will be $195M in 2017, $197M in 2018, $206M in 2019, $208M in 2020, and $210M in 2021.

 

The next highest Rule 4 Draft pick (or draft picks) will be forfeited if a club signs more than one Qualified Player (one draft pick forfeited for each Qualified Player signed).

NOTE: A CBT payor (club's payroll from the previous season exceeded the CBT threshold) would forfeit its 3rd & 6th highest selections if the club signs a second Qualified Player, its 4th & 7th selections if the club signs a third Qualified Player, and its 8th & 9th highest selections, 10th & 11th highest selections, etc, for additional Qualified Players signed.

 

End Quote

Edited March 8, 2019 by Sconnie

[h2oface]

 

I would rather have Kimbrel. I think he helps this team more and has less downside.

 

Me too, no hashtag. There really is not reason not to have both, though.

 

The idea that it would be horrible to lose a draft pick, a draft pick that probably will never make the bigs anyway, is just silly. Just think if we would have lost a Levi Michael, or a Tyler Jay for a top line pitcher. It would just crush me. 

Edited March 8, 2019 by h2oface

[bighat]

It's crazy to see guys like Keuchel still available on March 8th. The season starts in just 2 weeks - back in the "old days" (ie: 4 years ago) guys like this would have been scooped up and signed for big multi-year deals.

 

What I think is happening in today's market is a bit of an overcorrection to the contracts that guys like Pujols received. Nobody wants to be stuck paying $20 million per year to an aging superstar with no skills. Teams like the Twins shouldn't feel bullied into paying guys like Keuchel for 5 years because he won a Cy Young Award 3 years ago with another team. Players, on the other hand, think guys like Keuchel deserve "back pay" for overachieving years ago.

 

In the end, I think the agents (like Boras) are primarily to blame for what's going on today. I think the second major factor is advanced analytics and high-tech scouting and development. The Twins' brainiacs seem to think that Martin Perez has 10 wins in him this season. I'm all for testing out this theory and letting Falvine run the team their way.

 

Regardless, I'm sure when Keuchel eventually does sign, everyone will be watching his numbers this season to see if he was worth it.

[Mr. Brooks]

Me too, no hashtag. There really is not reason not to have both, though.

 

The idea that it would be horrible to lose a draft pick, a draft pick that probably will never make the bigs anyway, is just silly. Just think if we would have lost a Levi Michael, or a Tyler Jay for a top line pitcher. It would just crush me.

I probably agree, but keep in mind that Jose Berrios was the pick we would have lost had we signed a QO player that year.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I would rather have Kimbrel. I think he helps this team more and has less downside.

 

I also think, should things not go well for the team, that he has more value as a trade target.

Edited March 8, 2019 by TheLeviathan

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd be ok with a three year deal with a 4th year tapped on if he met certain inning incentives in year three. Obviously, he's a risk but the team needs more horses in the rotation and I don't see many on the horizon. 

 

this is my feeling as well

[Mike Sixel]

JC: Kimbrel would have a team by now if his agent wasn’t trying to convince teams his 2018 & 2016 didn’t exist & price accordingly
Keith Law: Agreed. Also, the last time we saw the guy pitch he couldn’t throw a strike, and his manager used a starter to close out the last game.

[Aerodeliria]

Nice presentation Seth. I'd take a two-year deal in a heartbeat as long as he is physically sound. I don't see any comparisons to Lance Lynn.

 

The rotation would suddenly look very formidable indeed. (He wasn't awful last year; and he's one year removed from going 14-5.)

[Nine of twelve]

Haven't read all the posts yet and I'm not up to speed on the latest news, but if this continues much longer maybe he'd take a low-ball 1-year offer.