Article: Mailbag: Available Pitchers, Buxton Hype, Baseball Time Machine

[Cody Christie]

Snow continues to pile up. My snow blower was brand new this year and it’s already asking for an early retirement. Reports from Fort Myers say there is less snow near the Gulf of Mexico. Maybe all of Twins Territory can relocated to Florida for a couple weeks.

 

While we have all been stuck inside, there were some great questions sent my way. Follow me on Twitter so you can be part of the next Twins Daily mailbag.

Last year, the Twins signed players late into the spring as free agents were still available. Last week the club added Marwin Gonzalez, which might have seemed like a stretch at the beginning of the off-season. Instead, he was available and fell into the Twins laps. This is a phrase that has been thrown out multiple times by the front office. So… could a pitcher fall into the team’s lap?

 

Dallas Keuchel was the top free agent starter on the market, and he has yet to sign. As a 31-year old, he is coming off a year where he posted a 3.74 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 204.2 innings. It seems logical that plenty of teams would be interested in his services. My guess is he ends up back in Houston to solidify their rotation.

 

That being said, it sounds like he was good friends with Gonzales during their time in Houston. Maybe a reunion could be in the works. The Minneapolis Star Tribune doesn’t believe Keuchel will be coming to Minnesota. It seems most likely for the team to start the season with the current pitchers on the roster.

 

Gio Gonzalez does little to excite me as a free agent. Last year as a 32-year old, he posted a 4.21 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 171.0 innings. He could be a nice veteran presence at the back of the rotation, but I’d rather give those innings to a younger arm. Minnesota will start the year with Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, and Jake Odorizzi occupying the top four spots in the rotation. Innings that could be allotted to Gonzalez should go to the likes of Martin Perez, Adalberto Mejia, Kohl Stewart, and Stephen Gonsalves.

 

Even with the strong reports about Stephen Gonsalves, I doubt there is any way he makes the team out of spring training. The early weeks of the season are full of extra off-days and Minnesota will likely have some weather delays, sine the Home Opener is scheduled before the calendar turns to April. With that in mind, the club won’t need a fifth starter near the beginning of the year. This allows the team to carry an extra bullpen arm or an extra bat for the bench.

 

Without an injury to one of the top starters, there is almost no chance Gonsalves breaks camp with the club. He will start the year in Rochester and be only a phone call away.

 

I would love to buy into all of the Byron Buxton spring training hype. Unfortunately, spring training numbers mean little for the regular season. It’s great for his confidence to be finding consistent success, but fans haven’t seen him put it all together at the big-league level. Until he can do it consistently with the Twins, there will be a lot of fans that wonder if the Twins made the right choice with Buxton.

 

However, many fans were disappointed with Joe Mauer for the majority of his career and he could end up being a Hall of Fame player. Earlier this off-season, I identified Buxton’s emergence as one of the keys to 2019. I still believe that to be true. He could end up being an All-Star. He could end up struggling. It seems more likely that he falls somewhere in the middle of those two extremes.

 

This question took me the longest because of all of the options. Some of the options that popped into my head were Kirby Puckett’s eye injury, Justin Morneau’s concussions, and Joe Mauer’s concussions. All three of these injuries deprived Twins Territory of some tremendous years of Hall of Fame caliber baseball.

 

My answer might be a little off the beaten path, but I am going to say Francisco Liriano’s Tommy John surgery in 2006. I fully believe the Twins could have won the World Series that season had Liriano stayed healthy. No team was going to beat Liriano and Johan Santana multiple times in the same series. It might have been one of the most dominant one-two punches in playoff history.

 

I think Liriano’s arm injury deprived the Twins organization of their third World Series title.

 

I think the Twins have made it clear this off-season. They don’t want to be known as the club that battles their tails off. They want to hit home runs and they want to hit a lot of home runs. Minnesota’s 2019 roster is going to hit the ball over the fence and the club is going to strike out a lot. This might be good and it might be bad, but it’s a far cry from the Nick Punto days back in the Metrodome.

 

Thanks to all of those that submitted questions this week. Leave a COMMENT with your own answers to all of these questions.

 

Click here to view the article

[Einheri]

It would have been fun to see the one-two combo punch of Liriano and Santana deep into the post season.  Instead, it was painful watching Liriano leave the field that day (all the time knowing that he was feeling so much worse mentally and physically than I).

[mickeymental]

tony o.

[theBOMisthebomb]

The Francisco Liriano answer is spot on. Other possibilities are John Castino and Jim Eisenreich. Lyman Bostock and his death were a tragedy. Although he was technically a member of the Angels at the time, it sure was a loss for the Twins and all MLB.

[70charger]

tony o.

Great answer. Dude was unreal before he shredded his knees.

[rdehring]

Hadn't thought of the Liriano question.  But I think you are right, Cody.  Frankie and Santana would have been almost unbeatable.  Plus, wasn't Radke with the Twins that year...what a trio.

 

 

[Blackjack]

I really, really hope your prediction of Buxton becoming an all-star comes thru, that 6 months from now we're lamenting the front office not signing him to an extension.   

I'm tired of all the Buxton hype, I'm tired of his bone-headed self inflicted running into walls type injuries, I'd just like to hear talk about how his play is helping the Twins become a contender.     

 

Along those same lines, I hope Rocco keeps him at the bottom of the order for a few months, no matter how good he plans, don't let him think too much, let him gain some confidence.

 

 

[ashbury]

Let me toss Jason Kubel's name into the mix as well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

No team was going to beat Liriano and Johan Santana multiple times in the same series.

You know Oakland swept us in the 2006 ALDS, right? Johan lost game 1, then our bullpen gave up 3 runs and our offense only scored 2 in game 2 -- not sure how much help Liriano could have provided there. Then we scored 3 runs (in garbage time) in game 3. 7 runs total for 3 games.

 

I'm not sure that losing Liriano was the key factor preventing us from going all the way that year.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Tony Oliva. 

[big dog]

Tony O's OPS+ for his first eight full years (including his first knee injury) was 141.  He lost almost all of the next year, then played 3 full seasons with an OPS+ of just over 100, playing on one leg.  Then he played a half-year.

 

Give the Twins, say, 5 more years of Tony with a normal decline and I think those early '70s teams go farther.

 

Liriano's a good choice, but I don't think his arm injury could be chalked up to bad luck.  More like inevitability.

 

I would put Mauer's concussion second and Morneau's third, but both were pretty devastating to a team with some chances.  Kirby's eye was tragic, but it wouldn't have mattered to the team's standings- that whole era was pretty tragic.  I just wanted Kirby to have a shot at 3000 hits.

[Doctor Wu]

 

Let me toss Jason Kubel's name into the mix as well.

Good pick. Kubel was on an upward path until that injury. He was really never the same afterwards.

[Aichiman]

Yeah, I'd pick Kubel or Castino.  And if I can time travel into the future, I might pick Mr. Sano and his bum leg.

[ashbury]

Good pick. Kubel was on an upward path until that injury. He was really never the same afterwards.

And not just that. We're looking back at 2006? Imagine having Kubel in the batting order instead of Tyner/Nevin (our bizarro-world DHs). And his pre-injury wheels in the outfield instead of Rondell (slide him to DH where he belonged).

 

I don't think Kubel is the one guy whose absence stopped a WS march, any more than Liriano. But oh my, that makes two coulda-woulda-shouldas.

[Mr. Brooks]

Sorry, I loved watching Liriano dominate that year, but one pitcher is not the difference between getting swept by a bad team in the first round, and winning the WS. Perhaps if they'd lost that opening round in 5 games you'd have an argument.

 

This statement should breeze through Common's preposterous statement tournament.

[PDX Twin]

What makes me toward Oliva is that a strongly suspect (though I don't recall the exact nature of his injuries) that the medical knowledge of 2019 (or even of 1989) could have rebuilt his knee and allowed him to run again.

 

Does anyone with a medical inclination have more information about (1) exactly what he did to his knee and (2) how successfully these problems are treated now?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And not just that. We're looking back at 2006? Imagine having Kubel in the batting order instead of Tyner/Nevin (our bizarro-world DHs). And his pre-injury wheels in the outfield instead of Rondell (slide him to DH where he belonged).

 

I don't think Kubel is the one guy whose absence stopped a WS march, any more than Liriano. But oh my, that makes two coulda-woulda-shouldas.

 

I wasn't expecting Kubel to come up in this discussion. I always got the impression that the injury delayed his development a year or two, but ultimately didn't really curtail his MLB performance level. Something about his swing seemed pretty exploitable by MLB pitchers, even before the injury.

 

I don't think he had that much speed or defense before the injury either -- he was a right fielder through his entire minor league career, and never was a threat on the bases except for that partial season at Rochester.

[AceWrigley]

Dave Boswell (and Luis Tiant) injuries sped the demise of the 1969-70 Twins powerhouse.

 

Boswell won 20 games at age 24 in 1969 (after being punched out by none other than our manager, Billy Martin). 2 years and only 4 wins later he was out of baseball after an arm injury pitching to Frank Robinson in the playoffs that year.

 

Tiant was acquired from Cleveland only to suffer from surgery and recovery related arm issues and was released. Who else but Boston enjoyed his recovery.

[jmlease1]

ah, 2006. Man, those years between Corey Koskie and Trevor Plouffe at 3B were a little rough, huh? And why has this franchise had so many crappy DHs?!?

 

That team had the pitching to win a title if Liriano doesn't get hurt, but did they have enough offense? We were still relying on Rondell White (who somehow actually hit in the playoffs, just not in the season), Jason Tyner, the corpse of Phil Nevin...

[ashbury]

I wasn't expecting Kubel to come up in this discussion. I always got the impression that the injury delayed his development a year or two, but ultimately didn't really curtail his MLB performance level. Something about his swing seemed pretty exploitable by MLB pitchers, even before the injury.

 

I don't think he had that much speed or defense before the injury either -- he was a right fielder through his entire minor league career, and never was a threat on the bases except for that partial season at Rochester.

I thought he was considered to have pretty good wheels, but I don't happen to have a pre-ACL Baseball Prospectus on my bookshelf to re-check that. The 2005 Prospectus certainly is, ahem, measured in its description of his defense - "adequate" is often a left-handed compliment. He DH'ed half his games in his September 2004 callup, pre-injury, but that's not unheard of when breaking in a young prospect in September.

 

With his minor league progression, accounting for underperforming at Ft Myers and overperforming at New Britain, and the fact he didn't embarass himself when called up to the majors at age 22, and I don't think it's a stretch to imagine him as an offensive force two years later at age 24, and thereafter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

ah, 2006. Man, those years between Corey Koskie and Trevor Plouffe at 3B were a little rough, huh? And why has this franchise had so many crappy DHs?!?

 

That team had the pitching to win a title if Liriano doesn't get hurt, but did they have enough offense? We were still relying on Rondell White (who somehow actually hit in the playoffs, just not in the season), Jason Tyner, the corpse of Phil Nevin...

Liriano would have improved the staff, no doubt, but would that have been enough pitching to actually win a title? Maybe if they go Schilling-Johnson circa 2001. Otherwise, even with Liriano, the playoff rotation still includes rookie Boof Bonser and Brad Radke's arm duct-taped to his shoulder. We had a few more relievers, but even they weren't a dominant group -- 8 runs allowed in 8 IP during the Oakland series (granted, 2 of those runs were on the inside-the-park HR that Torii allowed).

 

Rondell White actually hit in the second half of 2006 -- 130 wRC+. (After a wRC+ of 4 in the first half!) But my great what-if for that team, beyond Liriano staying healthy, is acquiring Jim Thome before the 2006 season...

[cardsfan]

Snow continues to pile up. My snow blower was brand new this year and it’s already asking for an early retirement. Reports from Fort Myers say there is less snow near the Gulf of Mexico. Maybe all of Twins Territory can relocated to Florida for a couple weeks.While we have all been stuck inside, there were some great questions sent my way. Follow me on Twitter so you can be part of the next Twins Daily mailbag.Last year, the Twins signed players late into the spring as free agents were still available. Last week the club added Marwin Gonzalez, which might have seemed like a stretch at the beginning of the off-season. Instead, he was available and fell into the Twins laps. This is a phrase that has been thrown out multiple times by the front office. So… could a pitcher fall into the team’s lap?Dallas Keuchel was the top free agent starter on the market, and he has yet to sign. As a 31-year old, he is coming off a year where he posted a 3.74 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 204.2 innings. It seems logical that plenty of teams would be interested in his services. My guess is he ends up back in Houston to solidify their rotation.That being said, it sounds like he was good friends with Gonzales during their time in Houston. Maybe a reunion could be in the works. The Minneapolis Star Tribune doesn’t believe Keuchel will be coming to Minnesota. It seems most likely for the team to start the season with the current pitchers on the roster.Gio Gonzalez does little to excite me as a free agent. Last year as a 32-year old, he posted a 4.21 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 171.0 innings. He could be a nice veteran presence at the back of the rotation, but I’d rather give those innings to a younger arm. Minnesota will start the year with Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, and Jake Odorizzi occupying the top four spots in the rotation. Innings that could be allotted to Gonzalez should go to the likes of Martin Perez, Adalberto Mejia, Kohl Stewart, and Stephen Gonsalves.Even with the strong reports about Stephen Gonsalves, I doubt there is any way he makes the team out of spring training. The early weeks of the season are full of extra off-days and Minnesota will likely have some weather delays, sine the Home Opener is scheduled before the calendar turns to April. With that in mind, the club won’t need a fifth starter near the beginning of the year. This allows the team to carry an extra bullpen arm or an extra bat for the bench.Without an injury to one of the top starters, there is almost no chance Gonsalves breaks camp with the club. He will start the year in Rochester and be only a phone call away.I would love to buy into all of the Byron Buxton spring training hype. Unfortunately, spring training numbers mean little for the regular season. It’s great for his confidence to be finding consistent success, but fans haven’t seen him put it all together at the big-league level. Until he can do it consistently with the Twins, there will be a lot of fans that wonder if the Twins made the right choice with Buxton.However, many fans were disappointed with Joe Mauer for the majority of his career and he could end up being a Hall of Fame player. Earlier this off-season, I identified Buxton’s emergence as one of the keys to 2019. I still believe that to be true. He could end up being an All-Star. He could end up struggling. It seems more likely that he falls somewhere in the middle of those two extremes.This question took me the longest because of all of the options. Some of the options that popped into my head were Kirby Puckett’s eye injury, Justin Morneau’s concussions, and Joe Mauer’s concussions. All three of these injuries deprived Twins Territory of some tremendous years of Hall of Fame caliber baseball.My answer might be a little off the beaten path, but I am going to say Francisco Liriano’s Tommy John surgery in 2006. I fully believe the Twins could have won the World Series that season had Liriano stayed healthy. No team was going to beat Liriano and Johan Santana multiple times in the same series. It might have been one of the most dominant one-two punches in playoff history.I think Liriano’s arm injury deprived the Twins organization of their third World Series title.I think the Twins have made it clear this off-season. They don’t want to be known as the club that battles their tails off. They want to hit home runs and they want to hit a lot of home runs. Minnesota’s 2019 roster is going to hit the ball over the fence and the club is going to strike out a lot. This might be good and it might be bad, but it’s a far cry from the Nick Punto days back in the Metrodome.Thanks to all of those that submitted questions this week. Leave a COMMENT with your own answers to all of these questions.Click here to view the article

The word is that Houston'

Snow continues to pile up. My snow blower was brand new this year and it’s already asking for an early retirement. Reports from Fort Myers say there is less snow near the Gulf of Mexico. Maybe all of Twins Territory can relocated to Florida for a couple weeks.While we have all been stuck inside, there were some great questions sent my way. Follow me on Twitter so you can be part of the next Twins Daily mailbag.Last year, the Twins signed players late into the spring as free agents were still available. Last week the club added Marwin Gonzalez, which might have seemed like a stretch at the beginning of the off-season. Instead, he was available and fell into the Twins laps. This is a phrase that has been thrown out multiple times by the front office. So… could a pitcher fall into the team’s lap?Dallas Keuchel was the top free agent starter on the market, and he has yet to sign. As a 31-year old, he is coming off a year where he posted a 3.74 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 204.2 innings. It seems logical that plenty of teams would be interested in his services. My guess is he ends up back in Houston to solidify their rotation.That being said, it sounds like he was good friends with Gonzales during their time in Houston. Maybe a reunion could be in the works. The Minneapolis Star Tribune doesn’t believe Keuchel will be coming to Minnesota. It seems most likely for the team to start the season with the current pitchers on the roster.Gio Gonzalez does little to excite me as a free agent. Last year as a 32-year old, he posted a 4.21 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP in 171.0 innings. He could be a nice veteran presence at the back of the rotation, but I’d rather give those innings to a younger arm. Minnesota will start the year with Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, and Jake Odorizzi occupying the top four spots in the rotation. Innings that could be allotted to Gonzalez should go to the likes of Martin Perez, Adalberto Mejia, Kohl Stewart, and Stephen Gonsalves.Even with the strong reports about Stephen Gonsalves, I doubt there is any way he makes the team out of spring training. The early weeks of the season are full of extra off-days and Minnesota will likely have some weather delays, sine the Home Opener is scheduled before the calendar turns to April. With that in mind, the club won’t need a fifth starter near the beginning of the year. This allows the team to carry an extra bullpen arm or an extra bat for the bench.Without an injury to one of the top starters, there is almost no chance Gonsalves breaks camp with the club. He will start the year in Rochester and be only a phone call away.I would love to buy into all of the Byron Buxton spring training hype. Unfortunately, spring training numbers mean little for the regular season. It’s great for his confidence to be finding consistent success, but fans haven’t seen him put it all together at the big-league level. Until he can do it consistently with the Twins, there will be a lot of fans that wonder if the Twins made the right choice with Buxton.However, many fans were disappointed with Joe Mauer for the majority of his career and he could end up being a Hall of Fame player. Earlier this off-season, I identified Buxton’s emergence as one of the keys to 2019. I still believe that to be true. He could end up being an All-Star. He could end up struggling. It seems more likely that he falls somewhere in the middle of those two extremes.This question took me the longest because of all of the options. Some of the options that popped into my head were Kirby Puckett’s eye injury, Justin Morneau’s concussions, and Joe Mauer’s concussions. All three of these injuries deprived Twins Territory of some tremendous years of Hall of Fame caliber baseball.My answer might be a little off the beaten path, but I am going to say Francisco Liriano’s Tommy John surgery in 2006. I fully believe the Twins could have won the World Series that season had Liriano stayed healthy. No team was going to beat Liriano and Johan Santana multiple times in the same series. It might have been one of the most dominant one-two punches in playoff history.I think Liriano’s arm injury deprived the Twins organization of their third World Series title.I think the Twins have made it clear this off-season. They don’t want to be known as the club that battles their tails off. They want to hit home runs and they want to hit a lot of home runs. Minnesota’s 2019 roster is going to hit the ball over the fence and the club is going to strike out a lot. This might be good and it might be bad, but it’s a far cry from the Nick Punto days back in the Metrodome.Thanks to all of those that submitted questions this week. Leave a COMMENT with your own answers to all of these questions.Click here to view the article

The word is that teams are aware of Houston's tepid interest in Dallas Keuchel and it may be a factor why he hasn't got the contract he was hoping for. Gio Gonzales is a minor league contract at best.

[ahart10]

If Gio is a minor league deal why in the heck did this FO give Martin Perez anything?

[mickeymental]

easy to forget that buxton finished 18th in 2017 MVP voting.

[KGB]

 

If Gio is a minor league deal why in the heck did this FO give Martin Perez anything?

Perez is this year's rule 5 pick for the FO. They are determined to show everyone they can find someone nobody else could.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I thought he was considered to have pretty good wheels, but I don't happen to have a pre-ACL Baseball Prospectus on my bookshelf to re-check that. The 2005 Prospectus certainly is, ahem, measured in its description of his defense - "adequate" is often a left-handed compliment. He DH'ed half his games in his September 2004 callup, pre-injury, but that's not unheard of when breaking in a young prospect in September.

 

With his minor league progression, accounting for underperforming at Ft Myers and overperforming at New Britain, and the fact he didn't embarass himself when called up to the majors at age 22, and I don't think it's a stretch to imagine him as an offensive force two years later at age 24, and thereafter.

I don't know. I mean, Kubel tore up the minors in 2004 -- but plenty of guys tear up the minors, and even have a good MLB debut, and don't ultimately go on to become "offensive forces" in MLB. Kubel was ranked #17 by BA after 2004 -- his first top 100 ranking there. That's very good, but it doesn't strike me as can't-miss-elite-in-the-absence-of-injury or anything. Kubel put up a 117 OPS+ from ages 25-30, which seems a perfectly appropriate outcome for that ranking and his minor league record.

 

Beyond DH'ing during his 2004 MLB debut, he was also used in a strict platoon (61 PA vs RHP, 6 vs LHP), which suggests that platoon concerns were already apparent. Kubel ultimately had a 114 wRC+ vs RHP and a 82 wRC+ vs LHP in MLB. I don't like to read too much into small samples, but sometimes it's all we have -- and Kubel seemed pretty exploitable in the postseason too (2 hits, 3 BB, 13 K's, in 32 career PA), with his worst showing coming immediately after the best regular season of his career (2009).

 

Obviously the injury set back his timeline -- he lost 2005, and probably needed 2006 just to get back into form. But how much did it hold him back beyond that? I'm no ACL expert, but Moustakas and Eaton have both recently had ACL surgeries, and returned to hitting form the following seasons. I could understand a notable effect on speed, defense, and durability / games played, but just pure hitting? I don't know.

[ashbury]

I don't know.

And I don't know either, and if I had thoughts of Kubel being my #1 guy for the question posed here (I was just throwing him into the mix among other good candidates), I'm definitely backing off. At this point I'm just contemplating the what-ifs for 2006.

[Mike Sixel]

Mauer, Morneau

Kubel

Oliva

 

In some order. Probably Mauer first for me. I guess to me, brain injuries come first.

[cardsfan]

Liriano would have improved the staff, no doubt, but would that have been enough pitching to actually win a title? Maybe if they go Schilling-Johnson circa 2001. Otherwise, even with Liriano, the playoff rotation still includes rookie Boof Bonser and Brad Radke's arm duct-taped to his shoulder. We had a few more relievers, but even they weren't a dominant group -- 8 runs allowed in 8 IP during the Oakland series (granted, 2 of those runs were on the inside-the-park HR that Torii allowed).

 

Rondell White actually hit in the second half of 2006 -- 130 wRC+. (After a wRC+ of 4 in the first half!) But my great what-if for that team, beyond Liriano staying healthy, is acquiring Jim Thome before the 2006 season...

2006 was a missed opportunity considering an 82 win team won it after getting healthy at the end of the year. You don't want to let those get away. Luck is involved more than just stats.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And I don't know either, and if I had thoughts of Kubel being my #1 guy for the question posed here (I was just throwing him into the mix among other good candidates), I'm definitely backing off. At this point I'm just contemplating the what-ifs for 2006.

No worries! Obviously the whole thing is what-ifs, but to me, Kubel seems to stack two separate what-ifs -- health and performance.

 

But I also remember getting excited for Kubel after this game in 2006 -- I guess I've sobered up since then
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN200606130.shtml

 

Doesn't help that Kubel is on the negative side of one of my own personal what-ifs -- what if we had started (or at least pinch-hit) Lew Ford instead of Kubel in 2004 ALDS Game 2? (Ideally, putting Ford in LF ahead of Stewart.)

 

Which leads to another injury what-if from the same time period: what if Mauer stayed healthy in 2004? I don't know if that rookie power was real, but darn he looked good, and we actually played the Yankees pretty close that postseason. Henry Blanco actually did hit a dinger in game 4, but Pat Borders played in both of our extra inning losses too...