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Park: Gonsalves hits 93 in first spring start of spring


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https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/stephen-gonsalves-increases-velocity

 

This is good news. Apparently he worked with Wes Johnson on making some mechanical adjustments in the offseason.  Hopefully it has a positive effect on his control also.

 

A low 90's fastball will pair much better with his plus changeup than the upper 80s fastball he was throwing last year.

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While it's natural to worry about the stress on the arm when pitching at max effort, I wonder whether these same mechanical adjustments will actually serve to reduce the risk of injury. I mean, assuming the same effort, any torque not resulting in MPH on the baseball had to be going somewhere. Does this layman's view of (bio)mechanical engineering intersect reality anywhere? :)

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While it's natural to worry about the stress on the arm when pitching at max effort, I wonder whether these same mechanical adjustments will actually serve to reduce the risk of injury. I mean, assuming the same effort, any torque not resulting in MPH on the baseball had to be going somewhere. Does this layman's view of (bio)mechanical engineering intersect reality anywhere? :)

 

I think at the most basic level higher pitch velocity = faster arm speed = more stress.   Obviously poor mechanics can focus the stresses in certain areas leading to higher chances of injury.  It sounds like the adjustments made were focussed on his core movements, so presumably his arm movement hasn't changed much aside from the velocity.  So I  would think that all things equal, increasing velocity generally increases the chance of injury.  But were talking about a 5% increase in velocity, so it's not much of an increase in injury risk, and Gonsalves has always managed to stay pretty healthy.

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We all saw the difference for Ervin Santana when his speed dropped into the upper 80s compared to around 93 MPH before his finger surgery. I think a similar principle could apply to Gonsalves - just a little more speed could induce some more swings and misses, and a few more MPH in difference between his fastball and his off-speed pitches could be huge for him. I'm feeling a little more hopeful about Gonsalves now.

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Not bad for the team’s #12 prospect. You know, the guy who in 599 career minor league innings posted:

2.46 ERA

1.10 WHIP

6.4 hits/inning (!)

0.4 hr/9

3.6 bb/9

9.5 k/9

 

And then was bad for 24 innings in his major league debut in August and September in 2018 (6.57 ERA, 2.02 WHIP) and everyone gave up on him.

 

For comparison’s sake, in 591 career minor league innings, Berrios posted these numbers:

2.77 ERA

1.07 WHIP

7.2 hits/9

0.5 hr/9

2.5 bb/9

9.6 k/9

 

In Berrios’ mlb debut, he pitched in 14 games/58IP and posted a 8.02 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP.

 

Remind me again why Gonsalves has tumbled from the Twins’ #2 prospect to their #4 prospect to their #12 prospect and how Enlow, Thorpe, Duran and Graterol have gotten better than him?

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Not bad for the team’s #12 prospect. You know, the guy who in 599 career minor league innings posted:
2.46 ERA
1.10 WHIP
6.4 hits/inning (!)
0.4 hr/9
3.6 bb/9
9.5 k/9

And then was bad for 24 innings in his major league debut in August and September in 2018 (6.57 ERA, 2.02 WHIP) and everyone gave up on him.

For comparison’s sake, in 591 career minor league innings, Berrios posted these numbers:
2.77 ERA
1.07 WHIP
7.2 hits/9
0.5 hr/9
2.5 bb/9
9.6 k/9

In Berrios’ mlb debut, he pitched in 14 games/58IP and posted a 8.02 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP.

Remind me again why Gonsalves has tumbled from the Twins’ #2 prospect to their #4 prospect to their #12 prospect and how Enlow, Thorpe, Duran and Graterol have gotten better than him?

stuff, the rest of those pitchers have much better natural stuff than Gonsalves.  If they all have the same ability to command those pitchers all of those listed above will be better than Gonsalves.  That is a very big if. 

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https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/stephen-gonsalves-increases-velocity

 

This is good news. Apparently he worked with Wes Johnson on making some mechanical adjustments in the offseason.  Hopefully it has a positive effect on his control also.

 

A low 90's fastball will pair much better with his plus changeup than the upper 80s fastball he was throwing last year.

 

Maybe 93 is where he tops out.

 

But Seems to me, in March guys are usually several MPH short of where they end up in May. If Wes Johnson has some magic velocity serum he might be the most important person in the organization.

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Not bad for the team’s #12 prospect. You know, the guy who in 599 career minor league innings posted:
2.46 ERA
1.10 WHIP
6.4 hits/inning (!)
0.4 hr/9
3.6 bb/9
9.5 k/9

And then was bad for 24 innings in his major league debut in August and September in 2018 (6.57 ERA, 2.02 WHIP) and everyone gave up on him.

For comparison’s sake, in 591 career minor league innings, Berrios posted these numbers:
2.77 ERA
1.07 WHIP
7.2 hits/9
0.5 hr/9
2.5 bb/9
9.6 k/9

In Berrios’ mlb debut, he pitched in 14 games/58IP and posted a 8.02 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP.

Remind me again why Gonsalves has tumbled from the Twins’ #2 prospect to their #4 prospect to their #12 prospect and how Enlow, Thorpe, Duran and Graterol have gotten better than him?

 

Because Gonsalves has reached the stage of his Twins career were the Front Office would rather bring in the next guy off the waiver wire than give him a full chance at being a major league pitcher.  Their view is that since he will "only" turn 25 this season he just isn't as good as the 29 year old guys like Marty Perez that we can pay $3.5 million for.

 

It is hard to believe that this will be Gonsalves 7th year in the Twins organization.   Every year Gonsalves started at a level, blew that level away statistically, was promoted (and wiht the exception of AAA and MLB in 2017 and 2018) was very successful at the advanced level.  And every year, the Twins made him start the season at the level he ended.

 

So, he went RK- to RK in 2013.   RK to A in 2014.  A to A+ in 2015.  A+ to AA in 2016.   AA to AAA in 2017.  In 2018 he went back to AA, then AAA to MLB.  

 

Here is the problem with the Twins development of Stephen Gonsalves:   if he wasn't developing the way the team wanted him to develop, they never put him in a position were he had to develop.  He essentially just blew minor league hitters away.   His career minor league K/9 is 9.5 and ERA 2.72.  At every level but AAA he has a career ERA under 3.

 

His initial stint in AA (74 innings in 2016) he had an ERA of  1.82, followed by 87 innints in 2017 at 2.68, and then 20 more AA innings in 2017 with a 1.77 ERA.  His initial taste of AAA went like his MLB debut, with what was the first career blotch in 2017 with a late season, 23 inning 5.56 stint, but when he was moved up to AAA in 2018 he pitched 100 innings with a 2.96 ERA in 18 starts.

 

So, whatever Gonsalves was doing "wrong" in his career as a Twins prospect, it was never measured in results.  The organization advanced him deliberately at a snails pace that was essentially one level at a time starting from the lowest rookie league, and now he gets to the major leagues unprepared and they find mechanical flaws to improve his fastball?????  One of our organization's top 10, even top 5 prospects,  successful at every level, isn't ready to pitch in the major leagues in his 7th year in the organization when he will turn 25.  

 

These prospects are the assets that a rebuilding team like Minnesota has to become competitive.  We have very few other avenues to obtain high end talent outside of our draft/farm system.  But the Twins don't seem to have any clue of what they are doing in the development of these prospects.  

 

I argue that prospects like Gonsalves should be pushed harder through the minor leagues.  Stephen illustrates two of those reasons.  First, real development cannot be done if you are too successful.  If you can easily get hitters out with the stuff you have, the extra fine tuning just isnt going to come into play.  Second, the higher level prospects like Gonsalves need to get to the majors so that the last level of fine tuning can be done when they are 22 or 23, not bounced around when they are 25 or 26.  The Twins are giving up too much of what should be prime baseball careers of these players and at the same time they are risking injury to these guys playing in the lower levels.  I just about guarantee that if Gonsalves was a Yankee/Red Sox prospect he would have reached the majors at least a year before he did with the Twins, probably two, and would be an active part of some major league rotation by now.  

Don't think so?   Look at Martin Perez's career with the Rangers.  Perez made his major league debut at the age of 21 with the Rangers.  His minor league ERA at the AA level was 4.78 and AAA was 4.30, with a career minor league K/9 of 7.7. A 4.25 ERA with a 4.9 K/9 in AAA got him promoted to the Rangers in 2012.  IT took Perez a bit, but he pitched in the major leagues every year from that point on.  

 

If the Twins would have pushed Gonsalves quicker through the minors and actually knew what they were doing, I think Gonsalves would have already be an established pitcher in the rotation at least, and probably a bit better, than Martin Perez.   

 

I am a constant critic of the Twins organization because the results warrant criticism. 

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And then was bad for 24 innings in his major league debut in August and September in 2018 (6.57 ERA, 2.02 WHIP) and everyone gave up on him.

 

It was more than just the MLB innings. He also took a step back in AAA issuing 5 BB/9 (about 13% BB per PA).  I was getting a little worried about him before he ever hit the majors.  And if his velocity had also dipped into the upper 80's there you'd have had to be concerned about how he'd get MLB hitters out.

 

We still need to see him clean up his control.  The same mechanical adjustments that increased his velocity might help, but we'll need to see him pitch more innings before we know.  I think it would be reasonable to move him up a bit just based on his velocity increase, but he sprouted a bunch of question marks last year.

 

Also, when Gonsalves was rated #2 in the org there was no Lewis, Kirilloff was just a promising high school draftee, and Graterol was an unknown guy in the low minors who had signed for only $150M.  So theres some context around the strength of the system to think about too.

 

 

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Two thoughts: 

 

1 - Gonsalves hit 93-94 in 3 of his 7 games last year. So hitting 93 isn't that impressive in and of itself.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=624427&b_hand=-1&time=game&minmax=ci&var=maxmph&s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&startDate=01/01/2018&endDate=01/01/2019

2 - It is a fairly common phenomenon for players on roster bubbles come into spring training at peak form, and there is at least some speculation that they wear out faster and are more prone to injury than players who ramp up to reach peak form on Opening Day.

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In Berrios’ mlb debut, he pitched in 14 games/58IP and posted a 8.02 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP.

Remind me again why Gonsalves has tumbled from the Twins’ #2 prospect to their #4 prospect to their #12 prospect and how Enlow, Thorpe, Duran and Graterol have gotten better than him?

 

My concern with Gonsalves has long been that he threw way too many pitches in the minors. If he was as dominant as his numbers seemed to indicate, he should have been getting out of innings quicker and going deeper into games. That was a big red flag. It made me think that he was getting his strikeouts by getting inferior batters to chase out of the zone, which would not work for better hitters at the MLB level. 

 

And it didn't.

 

But if you increase velocity, you should have more confidence in your stuff to get guys to miss while throwing over the plate. My outlook could change on him or any pitcher if the team as a whole starts throwing harder.

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Getting back to mechanics, one alternative to the "greater arm speed" would be a more efficient use of the lower body. Perhaps they're working on his drive off the rubber. This would increase velocity without added stress to the arm.

 

I honestly don't know how the new pitching coach, the so-called velocity-whisperer does it, but I haven't heard that his methods cause more arm injuries.

 

Does anyone know what his methods are?

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Getting back to mechanics, one alternative to the "greater arm speed" would be a more efficient use of the lower body. Perhaps they're working on his drive off the rubber. This would increase velocity without added stress to the arm.

I honestly don't know how the new pitching coach, the so-called velocity-whisperer does it, but I haven't heard that his methods cause more arm injuries.

Does anyone know what his methods are?

 

The ball doesn't leave the arm faster without the arm itself moving faster.  Gonsalves adjustments reportedly were lower and mid body adjustments if you read the article, getting better rotation with his hips. So if he has increased velocity (based on what Markos posted maybe it's not so clear yet) he will be putting a little more stress on his arm joints.  Most pitching injuries occur at the joints, so for these it doesn't really matter which muscle groups are doing the bulk of the work to generate the velocity, it only matters how the stresses from acceleration get distributed on the ligaments in the shoulder and elbow.  Pitchers can strain muscles from high effort but these are generally not the most serious injuries that happen to pitchers.

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I also hope Gonsalves can keep his fastball at 91-94 range, because he’s got a plus change and an above average curve. That profile alone fits a former 2 time left handed Cy Young award winner. Of course he had better control and command, but didn’t blow batters away with a 97 mph fastball, he used his fastball to set up his change. If Gonsalves can do that I think he’ll surprise this year.

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Two thoughts: 

 

1 - Gonsalves hit 93-94 in 3 of his 7 games last year. So hitting 93 isn't that impressive in and of itself.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=624427&b_hand=-1&time=game&minmax=ci&var=maxmph&s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&startDate=01/01/2018&endDate=01/01/2019

2 - It is a fairly common phenomenon for players on roster bubbles come into spring training at peak form, and there is at least some speculation that they wear out faster and are more prone to injury than players who ramp up to reach peak form on Opening Day.

 

It seems to me that the upside would be Gonsalves having consistent mechanics, which presumably would increase his average velocity (around 90 mph) and command. There's a big difference between hitting 94 once and hitting 94 fifteen times.

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It seems to me that the upside would be Gonsalves having consistent mechanics, which presumably would increase his average velocity (around 90 mph) and command. There's a big difference between hitting 94 once and hitting 94 fifteen times.

Sure! I don't disagree with what you are saying. I'm just tempering my own expectations. The article was written to raise expectations. I'm not reacting much to this news in and of itself. There are enough other factors going on (early spring velocity is a product of the level of offseason conditioning, it was a planned short start, the exact velocity distribution wasn't given, etc) that there could be literally zero change in his overall average fastball velocity for this season. As a contrast, here are a couple things that would have caused me to sit up and pay attention:

- if it was reported, as you speculated above, that 15 of his 25 fastballs were 94. 

- if it was reported that he was touching 96, which is significantly faster than any pitch he threw last year.

 

Anyway, I'd really like to see Gonsalves ramp it up an notch or two - that would significantly raise his potential ceiling. I just haven't read enough evidence yet to believe that "it's happening". 

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Because Gonsalves has reached the stage of his Twins career were the Front Office would rather bring in the next guy off the waiver wire than give him a full chance at being a major league pitcher.  Their view is that since he will "only" turn 25 this season he just isn't as good as the 29 year old guys like Marty Perez that we can pay $3.5 million for.

 

It is hard to believe that this will be Gonsalves 7th year in the Twins organization.   Every year Gonsalves started at a level, blew that level away statistically, was promoted (and wiht the exception of AAA and MLB in 2017 and 2018) was very successful at the advanced level.  And every year, the Twins made him start the season at the level he ended.

 

So, he went RK- to RK in 2013.   RK to A in 2014.  A to A+ in 2015.  A+ to AA in 2016.   AA to AAA in 2017.  In 2018 he went back to AA, then AAA to MLB.  

 

Here is the problem with the Twins development of Stephen Gonsalves:   if he wasn't developing the way the team wanted him to develop, they never put him in a position were he had to develop.  He essentially just blew minor league hitters away.   His career minor league K/9 is 9.5 and ERA 2.72.  At every level but AAA he has a career ERA under 3.

 

His initial stint in AA (74 innings in 2016) he had an ERA of  1.82, followed by 87 innints in 2017 at 2.68, and then 20 more AA innings in 2017 with a 1.77 ERA.  His initial taste of AAA went like his MLB debut, with what was the first career blotch in 2017 with a late season, 23 inning 5.56 stint, but when he was moved up to AAA in 2018 he pitched 100 innings with a 2.96 ERA in 18 starts.

 

So, whatever Gonsalves was doing "wrong" in his career as a Twins prospect, it was never measured in results.  The organization advanced him deliberately at a snails pace that was essentially one level at a time starting from the lowest rookie league, and now he gets to the major leagues unprepared and they find mechanical flaws to improve his fastball?????  One of our organization's top 10, even top 5 prospects,  successful at every level, isn't ready to pitch in the major leagues in his 7th year in the organization when he will turn 25.  

 

These prospects are the assets that a rebuilding team like Minnesota has to become competitive.  We have very few other avenues to obtain high end talent outside of our draft/farm system.  But the Twins don't seem to have any clue of what they are doing in the development of these prospects.  

 

I argue that prospects like Gonsalves should be pushed harder through the minor leagues.  Stephen illustrates two of those reasons.  First, real development cannot be done if you are too successful.  If you can easily get hitters out with the stuff you have, the extra fine tuning just isnt going to come into play.  Second, the higher level prospects like Gonsalves need to get to the majors so that the last level of fine tuning can be done when they are 22 or 23, not bounced around when they are 25 or 26.  The Twins are giving up too much of what should be prime baseball careers of these players and at the same time they are risking injury to these guys playing in the lower levels.  I just about guarantee that if Gonsalves was a Yankee/Red Sox prospect he would have reached the majors at least a year before he did with the Twins, probably two, and would be an active part of some major league rotation by now.  

Don't think so?   Look at Martin Perez's career with the Rangers.  Perez made his major league debut at the age of 21 with the Rangers.  His minor league ERA at the AA level was 4.78 and AAA was 4.30, with a career minor league K/9 of 7.7. A 4.25 ERA with a 4.9 K/9 in AAA got him promoted to the Rangers in 2012.  IT took Perez a bit, but he pitched in the major leagues every year from that point on.  

 

If the Twins would have pushed Gonsalves quicker through the minors and actually knew what they were doing, I think Gonsalves would have already be an established pitcher in the rotation at least, and probably a bit better, than Martin Perez.   

 

I am a constant critic of the Twins organization because the results warrant criticism. 

 

I'm trying to see if I have what you are saying right:

1. Gonsalves advanced a level in the middle of every single year of his minor league career, culminating in a promotion to the majors on that same exact path, midway through the season after his midyear promotion to AAA.

2. He blew away the minors at pretty much every level along the way.

3. He should have been moved quicker so that he would have struggled more in the minors, gotten to the majors faster, so that he could be more like....Martin Perez?

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In 599 career minor league innings, Gonsalves posted:
2.46 ERA
1.10 WHIP
6.4 hits/9
0.4 hr/9
3.6 bb/9
9.5 k/9

 

Promoted to mlb just after his 24th birthday, and was bad for 24 innings in his major league debut in August and September in 2018 (6.57 ERA, 2.02 WHIP).

For comparison’s sake, in 591 career minor league innings, Berrios posted these numbers:
2.77 ERA
1.07 WHIP
7.2 hits/9
0.5 hr/9
2.5 bb/9
9.6 k/9

In Berrios’ mlb debut, he pitched in 14 games/58IP and posted a 8.02 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP.

Gonsalves dropped from the Twins’ #2 prospect to their #4 prospect to their #12 prospect with Enlow, Thorpe, Duran and Graterol moving ahead of him in the rankings.

 

To draw out the comparisons, let's pull up the minor league numbers for these guys:

 

Player  (highest minors level reached)

Berrios  (AAA)    591IP     2.77ERA   1.07WHIP   7.2H/9   0.5HR/9  2.5BB/9   9.6K/9

Romero (AAA)    394IP    3.02ERA   1.19WHIP   7.9H/9   0.3HR/9   2.8BB/9   8.3K/9

Brusdar (A+)       153IP    2.71ERA   1.10WHIP   7.5H/9   0.3HR/9   2.5BB/9   9.9K/9

Duran    (A-)        259IP    4.03ERA   1.32WHIP   8.7H/9   0.6HR/9   3.2BB/9    8.0K/9

Thorpe  (AAA)     328IP    3.18ERA   1.21WHIP   7.8H/9   0.8HR/9   3.0BB/9   10.7K/9

Enlow    (A-)        114IP    2.91ERA   1.25WHIP   8.2H/9   0.4HR/9   3.1BB/9   7.1K/9

Gonsalves(AAA)  599IP   2.46ERA   1.10WHIP   6.4H/9   0.4HR/9   3.6BB/9   9.5K/9

 

I get that the lists are based on a combination of stats and stuff.  But we also know that numbers generally get worse as players move up to face off against higher competition.  Now, maybe the better "stuff" is going to make these guys do the opposite, and post more impressive numbers as they move to higher levels.  But to me, I would put my chips on Gonsalves being the better pitcher going forward than Enlow, Thorpe, and Duran.  (Brusdar looks like the closest comp, other than Berrios...but he still has a ton to prove.)

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Sure! I don't disagree with what you are saying. I'm just tempering my own expectations. The article was written to raise expectations. I'm not reacting much to this news in and of itself. There are enough other factors going on (early spring velocity is a product of the level of offseason conditioning, it was a planned short start, the exact velocity distribution wasn't given, etc) that there could be literally zero change in his overall average fastball velocity for this season. As a contrast, here are a couple things that would have caused me to sit up and pay attention:

- if it was reported, as you speculated above, that 15 of his 25 fastballs were 94. 

- if it was reported that he was touching 96, which is significantly faster than any pitch he threw last year.

 

Anyway, I'd really like to see Gonsalves ramp it up an notch or two - that would significantly raise his potential ceiling. I just haven't read enough evidence yet to believe that "it's happening".

 

I'm with you. I watched the rapid fire video of his outing (which isn't a bad look for baseball! ) and to me he hit 92-93 here and there but still had some 89mph fastballs. I too will be waiting to see and if it ramps up from here we might have something.
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I'm trying to see if I have what you are saying right:

1. Gonsalves advanced a level in the middle of every single year of his minor league career, culminating in a promotion to the majors on that same exact path, midway through the season after his midyear promotion to AAA.

2. He blew away the minors at pretty much every level along the way.

3. He should have been moved quicker so that he would have struggled more in the minors, gotten to the majors faster, so that he could be more like....Martin Perez?

 

I think you are being purposefully obtuse, but doesn;t it seem strange to you that we get prospects like Gonsalves, top prospects in our organization, that are in the system for 6 plus years of minor league success, and yet, they aren't ready in the season they will turn 25? 

 

So, we turn to a pitcher like Marty Perez who wasn't even close to being as successful of a minor leaguer, yet was advanced quicker in some other organization so we sign him to a $3.5 million deal and give him the spot in the rotation instead?

 

Go put Martin Perez and Gonsalves minor league records side by side.  ASk yourself, if Marty Perez was in the Twins organization would he ever had seen the light of the big league team?   Ask yourself, what justified the Rangers in moving him up to the majors at 21 that could not be used to on a myriad of Twins pitchers?  

 

But, the point is that if Gonsalves would have been advanced quicker and brought up to the majors at 21-22 years of age, he would be AT LEAST Martin Perez right now.  And even if he wasn't, we would know and would have moved on to another guy.

 

 

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We all like to imagine the 89 mph matador tickling corners with late movement like Maddux. Unfortunately, the truth is such guys are quite rare. Most pitchers need that low- to mid-90's heat in order to get strikes and make their off-speed stuff more effective. The good news is that Gonsalves has honed his off-speed stuff to the point where he can almost get by with it. If he can hang onto that 93 mph heat for a while, he might just survive as a decent MLB starter. Even if he uses it just a few times per inning, it will help keep hitters from sitting on his other offerings. 

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Really like hearing that Wes Johnson has been working with pitchers over the winter, even those not likely to make the 25-man.

Yeah, right? I wonder if that's why he was chosen: he's a development guy first and foremost. He was a college guy, after all. It makes sense. I really hope that's the case.

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We all like to imagine the 89 mph matador tickling corners with late movement like Maddux. Unfortunately, the truth is such guys are quite rare.

Even Maddux wasn't that guy for most of his career. People talk about his control and precision and yadda yadda yadda but tend to forget the guy threw well into the 90s for a large chunk of his career.

 

And he pitched in an era where 80-something mph guys were pretty common. He wasn't a league leader in velocity but was solidly in the upper half of pitcher velocity.

 

Sure, he got by on smoke and mirrors later in his career but gathered up a whopping 93 rWAR through the 2002 season, amassing just 11 more rWAR the final six years of his career as his velocity continued to drop.

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