MLB Posts Twins Top 30 Prospects

[2wins87]

 

And this is WAY off topic, but it looks like there will be some decent pitchers available when the Twins pick.

 

I've been thinking the same thing.  A possible perk of picking 13th in an extremely position player heavy draft is that they might get a shot at their favorite pitcher in the draft.

 

Of course if they end up getting a position player they like then that will be good too.

[FormerMinnasotan]

As PseudoSABR and Birdwatcher have pointed out, yes, I only pointed out the "bad" news. I agree that there is more depth than I can remember. And, as most of the depth is in the "lower" levels, I hope many move up. Of course, there will probably be 5 to 7 in this year's draft that will be placed on mid-season lists.

 

And this is WAY off topic, but it looks like there will be some decent pitchers available when the Twins pick.

We can never have too many quality pitching prospects. Hopefully we’ll land a top pitching prospect with this year’s draft.

[Dman]

So I was so worked up over Jeffers that I even wrote to MLB.com about it. I was bit irreverent and uppity so I did not expect a response, but Mr. Mayo was nice enough to answer my query in a very gracious manner.  For those interested the exchange is as follows:

 

"Mr. Mayo,

Can you change Jeffer’s hit tool to a 50.  Given the stats he had last year compared to other players his age having a 45 hit tool seems an egregious mistake.  I mean the guy had a 500 OBP in the Appy league.  Are there any other players that had a 500 OBP in that league out of college last year?  And if there are do they have a 45 hit tool?  You guys look goofy giving him a 45.  Please fix it so that I can respect your all knowing knowledge again.  Thank you.

 

Darren

A champion for overlooked Minor leaguers."

 

"Hi Darren –

 

First of all, I want thank you for your obvious passion for the game, and particularly for prospects. It’s fans like you that make my job a lot of fun.

 

Allow me to address your issue a bit, giving you some insight into our process:

 

The grades you see are future grades, not current ones. In other words, it’s what we think the player is going to be at the Major League level. Yes, performance matters at a certain point, but it’s not what a player does at the current moment that matters most.
That’s especially true of draftees. We never put that much stock in one summer performance after a guy is drafted. That’s true if it’s a very good debut, like Jeffers’, or if it’s bad. It’s just too small of a sample size to put too much weight into it.
In terms of sample size anywhere – I would warn against putting too much stock into small samples anywhere. Otherwise, you would’ve given Mike Trout a 30 hit grade after his big league debut (.220/.281/.390 in 40 games). Jeffers, by the way, played just 28 games in the Appy League.

I’ll be watching Jeffers carefully – he’s as high on the list as he is because of his debut (considering he wasn’t even on our Draft 200). If he shows that his hit tool is for real as he plays a full season and beyond, then I’m more than happy to tick it up. But for now, I’m going to make him prove it and go with the 45 grade that came from multiple conversations with scouts and Twins player development folks.

Thanks for writing.

Jonathan"

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

So I was so worked up over Jeffers that I even wrote to MLB.com about it. I was bit irreverent and uppity so I did not expect a response, but Mr. Mayo was nice enough to answer my query in a very gracious manner. For those interested the exchange is as follows:

 

"Mr. Mayo,

Can you change Jeffer’s hit tool to a 50. Given the stats he had last year compared to other players his age having a 45 hit tool seems an egregious mistake. I mean the guy had a 500 OBP in the Appy league. Are there any other players that had a 500 OBP in that league out of college last year? And if there are do they have a 45 hit tool? You guys look goofy giving him a 45. Please fix it so that I can respect your all knowing knowledge again. Thank you.

 

Darren

A champion for overlooked Minor leaguers."

 

"Hi Darren –

 

First of all, I want thank you for your obvious passion for the game, and particularly for prospects. It’s fans like you that make my job a lot of fun.

 

Allow me to address your issue a bit, giving you some insight into our process:

 

The grades you see are future grades, not current ones. In other words, it’s what we think the player is going to be at the Major League level. Yes, performance matters at a certain point, but it’s not what a player does at the current moment that matters most.

That’s especially true of draftees. We never put that much stock in one summer performance after a guy is drafted. That’s true if it’s a very good debut, like Jeffers’, or if it’s bad. It’s just too small of a sample size to put too much weight into it.

In terms of sample size anywhere – I would warn against putting too much stock into small samples anywhere. Otherwise, you would’ve given Mike Trout a 30 hit grade after his big league debut (.220/.281/.390 in 40 games). Jeffers, by the way, played just 28 games in the Appy League.

I’ll be watching Jeffers carefully – he’s as high on the list as he is because of his debut (considering he wasn’t even on our Draft 200). If he shows that his hit tool is for real as he plays a full season and beyond, then I’m more than happy to tick it up. But for now, I’m going to make him prove it and go with the 45 grade that came from multiple conversations with scouts and Twins player development folks.

Thanks for writing.

Jonathan"

Now we know your name.... On a more serious note, cool.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Thanks for the reply. It just seems dumb to me that Larnach who is essentially the same age and was at the same levels and did about the same as Jeffers gets a 55 hit tool and Jeffers gets a 45. It just makes their grading look weak or meaningless. I know it doesn't matter but their lack of consistency bothers me.

Also Keirsey who really had worse stats than Jeffers ends up with 50 hit tool. It just takes their scouting credibility away IMO.

 

Stats from 2 months have pretty much nothing to do with prospect rankings... Trust me, no one looked at their 2018 minor league stats and changed their opinion on Larnach over Jeffers or Keirsey or Helman or whoever. 

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

So I was so worked up over Jeffers that I even wrote to MLB.com about it. I was bit irreverent and uppity so I did not expect a response, but Mr. Mayo was nice enough to answer my query in a very gracious manner.  For those interested the exchange is as follows:

 

"Mr. Mayo,

Can you change Jeffer’s hit tool to a 50.  Given the stats he had last year compared to other players his age having a 45 hit tool seems an egregious mistake.  I mean the guy had a 500 OBP in the Appy league.  Are there any other players that had a 500 OBP in that league out of college last year?  And if there are do they have a 45 hit tool?  You guys look goofy giving him a 45.  Please fix it so that I can respect your all knowing knowledge again.  Thank you.

 

Darren

A champion for overlooked Minor leaguers."

 

"Hi Darren –

 

First of all, I want thank you for your obvious passion for the game, and particularly for prospects. It’s fans like you that make my job a lot of fun.

 

Allow me to address your issue a bit, giving you some insight into our process:

 

The grades you see are future grades, not current ones. In other words, it’s what we think the player is going to be at the Major League level. Yes, performance matters at a certain point, but it’s not what a player does at the current moment that matters most.
That’s especially true of draftees. We never put that much stock in one summer performance after a guy is drafted. That’s true if it’s a very good debut, like Jeffers’, or if it’s bad. It’s just too small of a sample size to put too much weight into it.
In terms of sample size anywhere – I would warn against putting too much stock into small samples anywhere. Otherwise, you would’ve given Mike Trout a 30 hit grade after his big league debut (.220/.281/.390 in 40 games). Jeffers, by the way, played just 28 games in the Appy League.

I’ll be watching Jeffers carefully – he’s as high on the list as he is because of his debut (considering he wasn’t even on our Draft 200). If he shows that his hit tool is for real as he plays a full season and beyond, then I’m more than happy to tick it up. But for now, I’m going to make him prove it and go with the 45 grade that came from multiple conversations with scouts and Twins player development folks.

Thanks for writing.

Jonathan"

 

So essentially, he told you what we all told you?

[howieramone2]

Sometimes they refer to this as power over hit tool for catchers. If a catcher can hit .225-.230 in The Show with 12-15 bombs they can have a nice career.

[ashbury]

Sometimes they refer to this as power over hit tool for catchers.

Don't know if I recall ever hearing that exact phrase before. Seems like a good one. A quick google search for it turns up usage for players all over the baseball field, not just catcher. At core, it probably reflects just a variation on the age-old "five tools" metric - if you have a couple of tools, you can carve out a major league career although not be a star. The implication I took from the various usages is that you say it when the defense is a given, and so all that's needed is one more tool, and if that's power without a stellar contact tool, then so be it. With power plus contact, if the defense is also good then we're talking three-tools and a regular spot in the lineup. So, "power over hit" is the polite way of saying "profiles in a backup role" I guess. It's all just guesswork anyway, since for a young guy one tool might not develop while another tool might pop up unexpectedly. Here's hoping Jeffers is the one who surprises positively.

[gunnarthor]

Pipeline posted an article about 30 prospects who just missed their teams top 30 - for the Twins they selected Landon Leach.

 

"Landon Leach, RHP, Twins | Top 30 Prospects

The Twins might have the best 1-2 Canadian punch in the Minors with Jordan Balazovic, their 2016 fifth-round pick, and Leach, who went in the second round in 2017. Leach had some shoulder issues slow him in 2018, but he’s added strength to his 6-foot-4 frame and has the chance to have three average or better pitches."

https://www.mlb.com/news/prospects-that-just-missed-the-top-30-prospects-lists?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

I generally agree and think Leach could jump up our list this season.