MLB Posts Twins Top 30 Prospects

[dbminn]

MLB just posted the Twins Top 30 Prospects. They have the system ranked 8th overall.

 

They are high on Javier and Duran, with Balazovic and Miranda making big jumps from last year's list. 

 

A short article about the list is located here.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-2019-top-30-prospects-list

 

[FormerMinnasotan]

One glaring omission is Tyler Wells IMO. He has done nothing but produce and produce in dominant fashion, much more so than Griffin Jax.If I were a betting man Wells has a greater likelihood of making the Big League team and actually being effective in the Bigs.

[caninatl04]

The bad news is that he only has 12 players rated 50 (average) or better. And I'd like to think the minors should berated a little higher than 8th.

[2wins87]

 

The bad news is that he only has 12 players rated 50 (average) or better. And I'd like to think the minors should berated a little higher than 8th.

 

I like to keep track of the grades in the other systems to have a better feel for how I should feel about the Twins prospects, and twelve 50 grades is pretty good.  A 50 grade in theory means that the median outcome will be an average mlb player and there is more variation about that outcome for some guys.  So far only Texas, Cleveland, and the Dodgers have more, and none of them have anyone rated better than a 55 grade.  I think at least 3 of the top 6 teams will also beat that mark though I'm not sure that Toronto, Houston, or the White Sox will, so the Twins will have among the most 50 grades in the league.  The Twins are also tied with the Reds with the most guys that rate 45 or above, though that will change with a few of the top teams.

 

As far as being ranked 8th, it's kind of meaningless but fair.  I don't really understand why the Dodgers are ranked 7th without any higher impact prospects.  Both the Twins and the Reds have better guys at the top and seem to have a similar amount of depth looking at the 50 and 45 grades.  I'm not that familiar with all of the other teams' farm systems but the Padres are probably an easy #1, the Rays are crazy deep (with good high end guys too), the Braves are also very deep (with fewer high end guys), Toronto has Vlad and a few other very good prospects at the top which makes their system, the White Sox have a few really good prospects about to the majors, and Houston has a similar 1-2 punch as the Twins with a few more 55 grade guys, though they probably have a bit thinner depth than they used to.

[gunnarthor]

Surprised Stewart didn't make their list at all. Nice to see Miranda and Balazovic get recognition. I think Rortvedt is too low but that's a minor quibble. 

[dbminn]

 

Surprised Stewart didn't make their list at all. Nice to see Miranda and Balazovic get recognition. I think Rortvedt is too low but that's a minor quibble. 

 

I think Rortvedt is ranked too low by MLB too. He seems to be a solid defensive C and his bat is starting to come around. Still a long ways to go but I have hope he'll make it to the majors.

[RatherBeGolfing]

I honestly would have not even noticed Tyler Jay wasn't in here if Mayo hadn't mentioned him. 

[Miggy's Little Helper]

The SP pain is real.  

[howieramone2]

 

The SP pain is real.  

I agree, that's the weakness in the system. We're losing the numbers game. No doubt we will be very active at the trade deadline, because we will have a number of 2 month rentals to trade. But that is so slow because we're getting basically players from A ball. 

 

I know prospect for prospect trades are seldom made, but if the search committee had picked me that's the way I would try to go. 

[Dman]

Normally I don't quibble about prospect grades but today I am.

 

I don't get the 45 grade on Jeffers hit tool.  First on draft day MLB.com tells us that Jeffers is a bat first catcher now in this article they are saying he is more Power over hit.  OK so a guy with a 500 OBP and more walks than K's in Elizabethton is a 45 got it.  Or they just took his Cedar Rapids numbers where he had a 366 OBP and 800 OPS and he has a 45 hit tool?  Granted his K rate bumped to 20% but his walk rate was still 10% so I think his Eye at the plate is pretty good based on the numbers.  When you combine his numbers from both leagues he has a 444 OBP and 946 OPS.  The stats don't seem to back up their analysis.  Are they just that bad at this or am I missing something?  He should have at least a 50 grade hit tool and personally I think based on the numbers and a little optimism you could give it a 55. 

 

Man, this guy just never gets any love.  A 500 OBP what does a guy have to do to get a little respect.  This is the second time MLB.com has dissed him.

[Dman]

I love that they had the guts to put Michael Helman in the top 30.  I can't ever remember an 11th round pick ever making it into the top 30 after there firth year debut.  He had an incredible year at Cedar Rapids and if that hit tool is for real the Twins found their diamond in the ruff.  Nice to see performance can matter more than draft position.  

 

Also nice to see Urbina in the list.  Always nice to have guys with speed and hopefully a very good hit tool to go with it.  Probably take 6 years to see him but he looks like a guy that could make it.

[jkcarew]

Jump: Jose Miranda, 2B/3B (2018: 28 | 2019: 14) -- Bat took big step forward in 2018; chance to be a plus hitter.

 

Seth had glowing things to say about Miranda in his rankings as well. Maybe I'm imagining it, but seems to be a "Miranda's coming on" theme. But it's not in his numbers. His 2018 numbers say 'solid', or 'on-track'..not 'big step forward'. Maybe, as a 2nd-round pick with power potential people like Mayo had him ranked too low heading into last year? Obviously, numbers don't tell the entire story with a 20/21 prospect...maybe his swing is just particularly sound/consistent. I'll want to watch him more this year.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

I was going through the list to see who amongst our top 30 MiLB players were players we had picked up in last year's trade deadline trades. It looks like at least 6 -

 

Duran # 7 - Escobar deal

Celestino #15 - Pressley deal

Alcala #18 - Pressley deal

Littel #21 - Garcia deal (2017)

Maciel #25 - Escobar deal

Raley # 26 - Dozier deal

Riojo #30 - Lynn deal

 

i think we should add in Severino (#13) signed from the Braves after they were penalized, plus 2 guys who are at MLB spring training -  Austin picked up in the Lynn deal and DeJong in the Dozier deal - and it looks like the Falvine FO has done a good job of re-stocking the MiLB larder. 

I'll lump Misael Urbina in with that group also. Great sign.

[gunnarthor]

 

Normally I don't quibble about prospect grades but today I am.

 

I don't get the 45 grade on Jeffers hit tool.  First on draft day MLB.com tells us that Jeffers is a bat first catcher now in this article they are saying he is more Power over hit.  OK so a guy with a 500 OBP and more walks than K's in Elizabethton is a 45 got it.  Or they just took his Cedar Rapids numbers where he had a 366 OBP and 800 OPS and he has a 45 hit tool?  Granted his K rate bumped to 20% but his walk rate was still 10% so I think his Eye at the plate is pretty good based on the numbers.  When you combine his numbers from both leagues he has a 444 OBP and 946 OPS.  The stats don't seem to back up their analysis.  Are they just that bad at this or am I missing something?  He should have at least a 50 grade hit tool and personally I think based on the numbers and a little optimism you could give it a 55. 

 

Man, this guy just never gets any love.  A 500 OBP what does a guy have to do to get a little respect.  This is the second time MLB.com has dissed him.

This came up a bit on twinkietown. Basically, Jeffers was an underslot pick. Fangrpahs had him as a 3-5 round talent, mlb didn't have him on their top 200 draft board. He was a college hitter so his stats in low A and rookie don't really mean much. They probably won't change his hit tool grade until he moves up some level(s). I think we'll learn a lot more about him this year but #13 seems pretty nice spot to place him for now.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

I am glad to see Jax recognized.  I think he will surprise everyone

[AZTwin]

Jump: Jose Miranda, 2B/3B (2018: 28 | 2019: 14) -- Bat took big step forward in 2018; chance to be a plus hitter.

 

Seth had glowing things to say about Miranda in his rankings as well. Maybe I'm imagining it, but seems to be a "Miranda's coming on" theme. But it's not in his numbers. His 2018 numbers say 'solid', or 'on-track'..not 'big step forward'. Maybe, as a 2nd-round pick with power potential people like Mayo had him ranked too low heading into last year? Obviously, numbers don't tell the entire story with a 20/21 prospect...maybe his swing is just particularly sound/consistent. I'll want to watch him more this year.

Check month by month stats. He struggled mightily early in the year but really came around

[PseudoSABR]

 

The bad news is that he only has 12 players rated 50 (average) or better. And I'd like to think the minors should berated a little higher than 8th.

But 27 with a grade 45 or better speaks to depth. 

[Dman]

This came up a bit on twinkietown. Basically, Jeffers was an underslot pick. Fangrpahs had him as a 3-5 round talent, mlb didn't have him on their top 200 draft board. He was a college hitter so his stats in low A and rookie don't really mean much. They probably won't change his hit tool grade until he moves up some level(s). I think we'll learn a lot more about him this year but #13 seems pretty nice spot to place him for now.

Thanks for the reply. It just seems dumb to me that Larnach who is essentially the same age and was at the same levels and did about the same as Jeffers gets a 55 hit tool and Jeffers gets a 45. It just makes their grading look weak or meaningless. I know it doesn't matter but their lack of consistency bothers me.

 

Also Keirsey who really had worse stats than Jeffers ends up with 50 hit tool. It just takes their scouting credibility away IMO.

[bird]

 

But 27 with a grade 45 or better speaks to depth. 

 

 

I'll add a little more texture to this:

 

When we compare the list with those of Cleveland, Detroit, and KC, we find that each of those teams have 8 to 10 prospects at end of their list who were graded as a 40. The Twins have three: Blankenhorn, Helman, and Rijo.

 

Drilling down into the 45 grade guys, you'll find that the others have a ton of aging prospects (age 23-25), and these guys more often than not quickly become non-prospects of the Michael Ott ilk. By contrast, all but a couple of the Twin's prospects with that grade are very promising young prospects (age 18-22) whose grades might improve. Severino, Celestino, Miranda, Alcala, Balazovic, Urbina, Jeffers, Arraez, Jax, Rortvedt, Maciel. Keirsey. Compare that to Detroit's 45 grade guys for example and you'll see.

 

I think this may play into why some of the others rank the Twins higher and why MLB will certainly be on the high side by several slots on Detroit (BA ranks them #15).

[108Stitches]

One glaring omission is Tyler Wells IMO. He has done nothing but produce and produce in dominant fashion, much more so than Griffin Jax.If I were a betting man Wells has a greater likelihood of making the Big League team and actually being effective in the Bigs.

exactly this. What a joke. What has Jax or even Alcala accomplished to deserve these rankings? Seems the biggest qualifier is “throws hard” or “we paid a lot of money for him”. Tyler Wells WAS on the top 30 earlier this year.

[Dman]

 

One glaring omission is Tyler Wells IMO. He has done nothing but produce and produce in dominant fashion, much more so than Griffin Jax.If I were a betting man Wells has a greater likelihood of making the Big League team and actually being effective in the Bigs.

 

Yeah I would put him in front of Jax and Rijo.  He has a better K9 and a better WHIP than both of them.  I get that he is already 24 and has no real plus pitches except his fastball but his results sure look better to me.  

 

When it comes to prospect lists there is no right or wrong answer but there are rankings that make you shake your head.

[FormerMinnasotan]

Yeah I would put him in front of Jax and Rijo. He has a better K9 and a better WHIP than both of them. I get that he is already 24 and has no real plus pitches except his fastball but his results sure look better to me.

 

When it comes to prospect lists there is no right or wrong answer but there are rankings that make you shake your head.

I actually think Wells’ secondary stuff and command is vastly underrated. From the scouting reports I have come across his curve is a pretty good out pitch, and if you look at any videos on Wells his strike outs are usually done by his fastball or his curve. What was eye opening for me was the lack of struggle in transitioning from A+ to AA ball. I mean look Lewis Thorpe (who is 8th on this list) took until June of last year to get rolling and pitch well in AA. And while Stephen Gonsalves made the transition look smooth from A+ to AA ball his command/control were not on the same level of Wells command/control at the AA level.

[Splash45]

Thanks for the reply. It just seems dumb to me that Larnach who is essentially the same age and was at the same levels and did about the same as Jeffers gets a 55 hit tool and Jeffers gets a 45. It just makes their grading look weak or meaningless. I know it doesn't matter but their lack of consistency bothers me.

 

Also Keirsey who really had worse stats than Jeffers ends up with 50 hit tool. It just takes their scouting credibility away IMO.

There is a lot more to scouting then just looking at stats. If that’s all they had to do anyone could be a scout. Maybe they see something in Jeffers swing that makes them think he only deserves a 45 hit tool right now.

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

Thanks for the reply. It just seems dumb to me that Larnach who is essentially the same age and was at the same levels and did about the same as Jeffers gets a 55 hit tool and Jeffers gets a 45. It just makes their grading look weak or meaningless. I know it doesn't matter but their lack of consistency bothers me.

Also Keirsey who really had worse stats than Jeffers ends up with 50 hit tool. It just takes their scouting credibility away IMO.

 

But stats aren't everything in projecting forward, either. Obviously, production is a key part of moving up the system but despite what they may both actually hit this year, the reality is that Larnach has a much higher upside bat than Jeffers. They're apples to oranges of course with different positions, different roles, etc. but that's why.

[Dman]

 

There is a lot more to scouting then just looking at stats. If that’s all they had to do anyone could be a scout. Maybe they see something in Jeffers swing that makes them think he only deserves a 45 hit tool right now.

 

You are right stats are only one part of the story.  The one knock on Jeffers coming from a smaller school is that he wilted when thrown in more challenging leagues. So maybe they just feel like he will wilt as he moves up.

 

The quibble I have is that supposedly he was drafted as a bat first catcher with some power,  I don't know a lot of bat first players that have a 45 hit tool.  Players with 45 hit tools typically are great defenders which supposedly Jeffers is not.  I also find it ironic that when MLB had Jeffers in the top 30 last year they had him as a 50 hitter.  The other strange thing is at number 16 he is the only 45 hitter until number 24 who also happens to be a catcher.  So why such a high rating for a bat first catcher that doesn't have great defensive skills?  Is he a good hitter or isn't he.  I am not sure MLB.com knows.

 

Sure maybe they see something and maybe 45 to 50 doesn't really matter that much but to me given the information I have the numbers don't add up.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure the Twins see him as a bat first player only.... Plus, he's a catcher. Take the risk, they are so hard to find.

 

It's a good list.

[nicksaviking]

 

exactly this. What a joke. What has Jax or even Alcala accomplished to deserve these rankings? Seems the biggest qualifier is “throws hard” or “we paid a lot of money for him”. Tyler Wells WAS on the top 30 earlier this year.

 

I like Wells and think he has a shot to make a name for himself, but "throws hard" is a pretty good qualifier. 

[caninatl04]

But 27 with a grade 45 or better speaks to depth.

As PseudoSABR and Birdwatcher have pointed out, yes, I only pointed out the "bad" news. I agree that there is more depth than I can remember. And, as most of the depth is in the "lower" levels, I hope many move up. Of course, there will probably be 5 to 7 in this year's draft that will be placed on mid-season lists.

 

And this is WAY off topic, but it looks like there will be some decent pitchers available when the Twins pick.

[108Stitches]

I like Wells and think he has a shot to make a name for himself, but "throws hard" is a pretty good qualifier.

 

throwing hard doesn’t mean much if you get lit up frequently. 97 is more exciting than 92, sure. But flat and straight 96-97 gets smoked. A lot of guys throw hard. Not a lot of guys can PITCH. Wells can pitch. That’s my point.

[ChrisKnutson]

I don’t care that we paid to get him, Severino is ranked way too high imo.