Article: Twins 2019 Position Analysis: First Base

[wabene]

I think many feel the Twins have a glut of outfielders, so Kepler playing some at 1B helps out with this. I don't think anyone expects he would play much at first.

Yes but I also don't understand why Kepler wouldn't be far down any list for first base. The man needs to be roaming the nether regions, as chilly would say he is a kick ass center fielder. Seriously he not only is in the top few at right field but not many guys are better at center. The guy is smooth out there and always knows right where the wall is. Which might be why he is always available. Not to mention that so far his bat hasn't played at first.

[chpettit19]

I find it interesting that so many people seem so confident in Cave being at least a useful ML piece after 309 PAs of 113 OPS+, yet are so worried about Cron after 2035 PAs of 112 OPS+. And that's not even mentioning so many people really wanting Austin to be on the team despite having 400 PAs of 100 OPS+. Seems like a lot of this is maybe a little emotional attachment to guys who've worn a Twins' uni.

[DocBauer]

If all we wanted was a placeholder we already had Austin. 

 

I imagine, after this year, we'll look at LoMo and Cron much the same way - we bought high (not in terms of cost, in terms or production expectations) and we received low.  As a general rule I prefer to buy high on what is likely to stay high or buy low on upside.  Cron offers the worst of both worlds.

 

I hope I'm wrong though.

 

Completely respect your opinion while also hoping as well that you are, indeed, proved wrong, lol.

 

I think one thing we all have to do is just forget about Morrisson. They may both be power 1B who each played for the Rays, but comparisons should stop there. They are different players, at different points in their careers.

 

Cron has been solid, but bounced in and out of lineups behind other guys, putting up decent but spectacular numbers, never having more than 400 AB until his breakout in 2018. He finally played daily and got 500AB. He reportedly made some adjustments to his approach. You would think Rocco is at least familiar with him also coming over from TB and having some input on his signing.

 

He could, more or less, duplicate his 2018 season. He could regress some and still be a decent hitter with 20+HR power and still be an asset. I doubt he's any sort of long term solution, but he could prove to be a solid short term option until Rooker, Kirilloff, etc, is ready.

[DocBauer]

Two spring training starts for Tyler Austin.

 

Both at 1B. 

 

I've been holding out hope for some OF work.

 

Agreed!

 

Three options:

 

1] It's still very early and they are looking at a lot of guys right now.

 

2] They are being short-sighted, which seems strange for this FO and Rocco's approach coming over from a forward thinking organization.

 

3] They have drilled Austin in the OF and don't like what they see, which sounds a bit strange considering he was originally an OF in the minors, and have already made a conclusion.

 

Sure hope it's #1.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Yes but I also don't understand why Kepler wouldn't be far down any list for first base. The man needs to be roaming the nether regions, as chilly would say he is a kick ass center fielder. Seriously he not only is in the top few at right field but not many guys are better at center. The guy is smooth out there and always knows right where the wall is. Which might be why he is always available. Not to mention that so far his bat hasn't played at first.

Everything you said here is correct, but I guess it comes down to this: If Cave does manage to build on his rookie campaign, and is a guy you want in the lineup against righties over Cron (not hard to envision), you're probably gonna want to play the guy at first who has experience and comfort there. Cave's not as good as Kepler in the OF but the drop-off isn't catastrophic for a game here and there.

 

 

I think one thing we all have to do is just forget about Morrisson. They may both be power 1B who each played for the Rays, but comparisons should stop there. They are different players, at different points in their careers. 

Another thing to consider is that Morrison was likely hurt. He had hip surgery in August which suggests a pretty serious issue. Who knows how long and how much it affected him, but he said at the time that he'd "just been grinding through it."

So, ya know, extenuating circumstances. 

 

When the Twins added Cron I wasn't terribly enthused, but I've definitely warmed up to it with further thought. The guy has just produced really consistently, at every step. Yeah he could drop off a cliff but there isn't any rational reason to expect it. 

[chpettit19]

 

Agreed! Three options: 1] It's still very early and they are looking at a lot of guys right now. 2] They are being short-sighted, which seems strange for this FO and Rocco's approach coming over from a forward thinking organization. 3] They have drilled Austin in the OF and don't like what they see, which sounds a bit strange considering he was originally an OF in the minors, and have already made a conclusion. Sure hope it's #1.

Delmon Young was a minor league OF too, doesn't mean he should have been in a ML outfield. Having watched Austin run I can't imagine he's a useful outfielder. I think it is a sign that this FO, and possibly Rocco, too, take defense serious and don't want to put bad fielders out there if they don't have to. 

 

And it's not like Austin has lit the world on fire at the plate in his career. It's been spotty chances for him, but he's a career league average hitter. Taking ABs away from any of our OFs for that doesn't seem like the right move to me. If you think consistent ABs makes him an above average hitter maybe there's more to the idea of finding him a second position, but I just don't think he's good enough with the bat to make up for what I would guess is subpar OF defense.

[Mike Sixel]

I find it interesting that so many people seem so confident in Cave being at least a useful ML piece after 309 PAs of 113 OPS+, yet are so worried about Cron after 2035 PAs of 112 OPS+. And that's not even mentioning so many people really wanting Austin to be on the team despite having 400 PAs of 100 OPS+. Seems like a lot of this is maybe a little emotional attachment to guys who've worn a Twins' uni.

Cave can play defense some. Cron? I think that's part of it for me. But offense? No idea if either will repeat their performance

[chpettit19]

 

Cave can play defense some. Cron? I think that's part of it for me. But offense? No idea if either will repeat their performance

That's fair. I'm not overly excited or down on either of them. Just find it interesting. Not saying it's good or bad, just interesting that their stats (given, only offensively) are super similar, but they tend to be viewed very differently on a lot of these boards.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Completely respect your opinion while also hoping as well that you are, indeed, proved wrong, lol. I think one thing we all have to do is just forget about Morrisson. They may both be power 1B who each played for the Rays, but comparisons should stop there. They are different players, at different points in their careers. Cron has been solid, but bounced in and out of lineups behind other guys, putting up decent but spectacular numbers, never having more than 400 AB until his breakout in 2018. He finally played daily and got 500AB. He reportedly made some adjustments to his approach. You would think Rocco is at least familiar with him also coming over from TB and having some input on his signing. He could, more or less, duplicate his 2018 season. He could regress some and still be a decent hitter with 20+HR power and still be an asset. I doubt he's any sort of long term solution, but he could prove to be a solid short term option until Rooker, Kirilloff, etc, is ready.

 

I'm not sure LoMo's past is all the different than Cron's.  They are pretty similar to my glance.

 

My concern is that his prior production that Nick is citing as consistent, might have been so because he was being played selectively to protect him from being over-exposed.  He had pretty consistent production throughout last year, so if there is an adjustment to be made it doesn't seem like it was discovered last year.  Nevertheless, baseball is a game of adjustments and what happened to LoMo was an inability to adjust to what was being done to limit him.  I anticipate much the same with Cron.

 

And, for the record, I don't have much confidence in Cave either.  It's part of why I'm happy to have Marwin Gonzalez.

[Aerodeliria]

 

I find it interesting that so many people seem so confident in Cave being at least a useful ML piece after 309 PAs of 113 OPS+, yet are so worried about Cron after 2035 PAs of 112 OPS+. And that's not even mentioning so many people really wanting Austin to be on the team despite having 400 PAs of 100 OPS+. Seems like a lot of this is maybe a little emotional attachment to guys who've worn a Twins' uni.

 

I admit there is some emotion involved and perhaps wishful thinking, but it's not all whimsy and fairy dust either. Personally, I'm not worried about Cron and want to give him every opportunity to show off that power. I am optimistic even (a bit). And, regarding Cave, of course there is a chance that he will regress, but he played decent outfield in that short stint and hit fairly consistently--stuck in the lower-half of frankly an abysmal line-up (hitting-wise), so I have some optimism that it wasn't just a small sample fluke. Concerning Austin, I have neither love nor animus towards him as a Twin; he has demonstrated that he is a poor hitter for the present and maybe for even for life, but personally, I would rather have Austin trot up to the plate in a tie game in the ninth than Adrianza just as I would rather have Joey Gallo take a swing in the ninth inning than DeShields (at least in his present incarnation). The odds are you will get a strikeout, but you might get a bomb instead. Considering that neither or them have anything to brag about when it comes to OBP, I'd rather opt for the home run swing than the flare.

Edited February 28, 2019 by Aerodeliria

[jimbo92107]

So, what do you do if Kirilloff bats .400 with slugger power all spring? Send him down?

[Twodogs]

I think it is extremely unlikely that Buxton starts the season as the leadoff hitter.

Yeah, you can put him anywhere in the lineup you want, my main point was that you shouldn't need the bench to make an everyday lineup, the bench should be the bench, to occasionally spell a starter and to use to pinch hit etc... During the games so you can play matchups better.

[ashbury]

So, what do you do if Kirilloff bats .400 with slugger power all spring? Send him down?

Probably.

 

Although, it's unlikely he even gets the chance to bat "all spring" with the big club. A non-roster invitee, even a highly touted one, is usually one of the early cuts, for a variety of reasons.

 

Currently .400 is his OPS, not his BA. So this eventuality isn't especially likely to come to pass anyway.

 

Sincerely,

Captain Buzzkilliroff

[caninatl04]

OF Buxton

SS Polanco

DH Cruz

OF Rosario

3B Sano

OF Kepler

2B Schoop

1B Cron

C Castro

 

Those other guys are on the bench

 

Thank you for this. I guess I was wondering, with all the positional flexibility, what line up differences there would be in facing a LHP versus a RHP.

[Twodogs]

 

OF Buxton

SS Polanco

DH Cruz

OF Rosario

3B Sano

OF Kepler

2B Schoop

1B Cron

C Castro

 

Those other guys are on the bench

 

Thank you for this. I guess I was wondering, with all the positional flexibility, what line up differences there would be in facing a LHP versus a RHP.

Yeah I understand what you are saying, but, to me, with the addition of Gonzalez; you have Garver who is the backup catcher and he hits Right handed, to Castro's Left. Gonzalez can play almost every position except Catcher and he is a switch hitter, then Cave is the 4th OF and he hits left, and then it would seem to me that someone like Austin can be that Right handed bat off the bench in that moment of need, especially in those handful of games played against the national league where you might want to pinch hit for a pitcher? With the addition of Gonzalez and his position flexibility and his bat, I just don't see a demanding need for a guy like Adrianza. And I thought he did ok last year, came up big a few times. But with two righties, a lefty and a switch hitter on the bench I feel at least like the number of different lineup possibilities are numerous. Just seems to me that Austin is really out of positions with CJ and now Gonzalez in the mix, but his bat also seems more dangerous than any of the other guys they have.

[bighat]

Austin will be claimed immediately, the Twins gave Lance Lynn away for free last summer. Oh well, it's a sunk cost and might as well move on. Here's hoping Cron works out because Austin would hit 35 HR if he started every day.

[NewClearHarley]

I'm holding out hope for the team to figure out how to keep Austin as a bench bat. The threat that the Twins could use him as a PH late in games would be nice. He is a legit power threat in that spot. Right now Garver and Gonzalez are guaranteed bench slots. I'd be fine with the other two slots going to Austin and either Astudillo or Cave. Hopefully once we get into the season, we can deal Castro to another team (could they send him within the division to KC???) and use Garver as the primary catcher and Astudillo as the backup allowing the team to bring Cave back up. Worse case Cave gets regular atbats at AAA and is called up when the ineveitable OF injury occurs. 

 

Looking at our defensive depth charts:

 

C: Castro, Garver, Astudillo

1B: Cron, Gonzalez, Sano, Austin, Garver

2B: Schoop, Gonzalez, Polanco

3B: Sano, Gonzalez, Astudillo

SS: Polanco, Gonzalez

RF: Kepler, Gonzalez, Cruz (emergency)

CF: Buxton, Kepler, Gonzalez

LF: Rosario, Gonzalez

DH: Cruz, Sano, Austin

 

SP: Berrios, Gibson, (Praying for Keuchel), Pineda, Odorizzi, Perez

BP: Parker, Hildenberger, May, Rogers, Reed, Mejia, Romero (i'm cool with him starting the year in minors too)

 

 

 

[Carneal&Gordon]

I, for one, hope the Twins find a way to keep Austin. Extreme RH power is never a bad thing at Target Field.